Sea Breeze The Invisible Tsunami For the area of NJ & Southeastern PA By Todd Nixon

Sea BreezeThe Invisible Tsunami

For the area of NJ & Southeastern PA

By Todd Nixon

The Objective

To provide you an understanding of how NJ sea breezes pose a significant hazard to hot air balloon ride operations in NJ and southeastern PA.

Typical Sunset Balloon Flight Path

Flight Path - May 31, 2006 - Pilot: Todd NixonFlight Path - May 31, 2006 - Pilot: Todd Nixon

The Problem

Sea breezes are a significant weather event to

balloonists because: 1.The landing speeds are increased.2.The landing approaches may be in

turbulence. 3.Our options to reduce hazardous

landings are very limited.

The SolutionBalloon pilots need to: 1.Understand the sea breeze

process and its many variations. 2.Learn to forecast & track sea

breezes for ourselves. 3.Learn to estimate sea breeze

strengths and penetration distances.

4.Know when to cancel the flight.

1.As chase crew: – Pre-launch near miss– Run, trip & drag

2.As a pilot: – May 25 & August17, 2004– May 28, 2006

My Sea Breeze Experiences In Ballooning:

A Balloon Flight Affected By A Sea Breeze

Flight Path - June 8, 2002 - Pilot: W. Barry NixonFlight Path - June 8, 2002 - Pilot: W. Barry Nixon


Flight Path – August 17, 2004 - Pilot: Todd NixonFlight Path – August 17, 2004 - Pilot: Todd Nixon

Flying In A Sea BreezeAltitude Speed Bearing

8/17/2004 18:59:23 565 ft 241 ft 00:01:05 2.5 mph 277° true

8/17/2004 19:05:09 1253 ft 266 ft 00:00:25 7.2 mph 318° true

8/17/2004 19:15:22 485 ft 262 ft 00:00:40 4.5 mph 291° true

8/17/2004 19:26:09 846 ft 278 ft 00:00:24 7.9 mph 315° true

8/17/2004 19:31:28 843 ft 285 ft 00:00:22 8.8 mph 305° true

8/17/2004 19:35:10 843 ft 263 ft 00:00:20 9.0 mph 313° true

8/17/2004 19:43:53 833 ft 280 ft 00:00:21 9.1 mph 310° true

8/17/2004 19:56:28 552 ft 266 ft 00:00:31 5.9 mph 304° true

8/17/2004 19:59:44 656 ft 265 ft 00:00:14 12.9 mph 326° true

8/17/2004 20:00:00 600 ft 247 ft 00:00:16 10.5 mph 305° true

8/17/2004 20:00:19 538 ft 257 ft 00:00:19 9.2 mph 305° true

8/17/2004 20:00:56 508 ft 145 ft 00:00:37 2.7 mph 296° true

8/17/2004 20:02:24 494 ft 263 ft 00:01:28 2.0 mph 295° true

8/17/2004 20:03:31 474 ft 260 ft 00:01:07 2.6 mph 293° true

8/17/2004 20:04:36 450 ft 266 ft 00:01:05 2.8 mph 310° true

8/17/2004 20:05:30 436 ft 271 ft 00:00:54 3.4 mph 312° true

8/17/2004 20:10:07 422 ft 153 ft 00:04:37 0.4 mph 14° true



Flying In A Sea BreezeAltitude Speed Bearing

5/28/2006 18:45:46 764 ft 153 ft 00:00:30 3.5 mph 337° true

5/28/2006 18:49:40 511 ft 152 ft 00:00:27 3.8 mph 308° true

5/28/2006 18:56:25 702 ft 144 ft 00:00:22 4.5 mph 315° true

5/28/2006 19:12:50 511 ft 158 ft 00:00:24 4.5 mph 340° true

5/28/2006 19:20:17 410 ft 167 ft 00:00:26 4.4 mph 323° true

5/28/2006 19:27:14 562 ft 154 ft 00:00:19 5.5 mph 324° true

5/28/2006 19:32:44 806 ft 167 ft 00:00:14 8.1 mph 328° true

5/28/2006 19:37:44 582 ft 163 ft 00:00:27 4.1 mph 336° true

5/28/2006 19:39:46 731 ft 168 ft 00:00:14 8.2 mph 348° true

5/28/2006 19:41:17 581 ft 163 ft 00:00:15 7.4 mph 336° true

5/28/2006 19:49:28 611 ft 164 ft 00:00:16 7.0 mph 343° true

5/28/2006 19:52:48 768 ft 163 ft 00:00:12 9.2 mph 336° true

5/28/2006 19:53:00 767 ft 168 ft 00:00:12 9.5 mph 332° true

5/28/2006 19:53:11 748 ft 158 ft 00:00:11 9.8 mph 333° true

5/28/2006 19:53:22 726 ft 165 ft 00:00:11 10.2 mph 334° true

5/28/2006 19:53:33 694 ft 161 ft 00:00:11 10.0 mph 331° true

5/28/2006 19:53:45 679 ft 160 ft 00:00:12 9.1 mph 326° true

5/28/2006 19:53:58 661 ft 167 ft 00:00:13 8.8 mph 328° true

5/28/2006 19:54:11 631 ft 167 ft 00:00:13 8.8 mph 328° true

5/28/2006 19:54:25 598 ft 160 ft 00:00:14 7.8 mph 326° true

5/28/2006 19:54:40 584 ft 164 ft 00:00:15 7.5 mph 329° true

5/28/2006 19:54:58 543 ft 154 ft 00:00:18 5.8 mph 316° true

5/28/2006 19:55:20 510 ft 158 ft 00:00:22 4.9 mph 323° true

5/28/2006 19:56:37 497 ft 124 ft 00:01:17 1.1 mph 300° true

Flying In A Sea BreezeYour two choices if caught up in a sea

breeze: 1.Ride out the sea breeze front:

• Could be a long distance flight.• Crew help doubtful.

2.Fly above the sea breeze current: • The current may slow towards

sunset. • Target a preferred landing site. • Coordinate a landing approach

with your crew.

Flying In A Sea Breeze



3D Flight Path - May 25, 2004 - Pilot: Todd Nixon - Image created by Keith Sproul3D Flight Path - May 25, 2004 - Pilot: Todd Nixon - Image created by Keith Sproul

Surface obstructions create resistance

Top of sea breeze

Sea breeze front

Main feed currents

Synoptic flow above sea breeze

Rotor

Calm air

Land surface


Date 05/25/04Keys C = Calm V = Variable Yellow = Ocean Blue = Bay

Airport 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100BLM 08SE 12SE 09ESE 10ESE 13SE* 14ESE 12SSE* 13SE 10ESE 08SE 12ESEACY 06V 07ESE 10ESE 13SE 15SSE 12SSE 10SSE 10SE 09ESE 09ESE 10EWRI 06NNW 04ENE 13W 04NNE 12SSE 12SSE 14SE* 10SE* 08SE 09ESE 8SEVAY 05NNW 08WSW 05W 13W 09NW 05V 06SW 09ESE 09ESE 05V 04ESETTN 04V 04V 06SSW 09W 05S 07W 05NNW 12ESE 12E 08ESE 10SEPNE 04V 07W 08WNW 07W 07V 09WSW 06WNW 10W 13ESE 12ESE 12SENXX 03V 07WNW 13W 10WNW C C 06NW 06WNW C 08SE 08SEDYL 06SSE 06W 09SW 08WNW 06V 06V 08WSW 08SE C 08SE 07VSMQ 04V 05V C 05V 06V 05V 08SE 07SSE 05V 05V 05SE

MIV C 06WSW 13WNW 09W 07V 08SSW 08S 08S 05V 05SE 06EILG 08WNW 12W 08W 06V 06V 10SSE 07S 14SSE 07S 09SE 07SSWPHL 06V 12SW 13WSW 12WSW 10W 09SW 07WSW 04V 06SSE 12S 06S

* Gusty conditions up to 20 mph.

Hour



Flight characteristics vary with each sea breeze:• The strongest current in a sea breeze is typically

between 500 to 1200 feet AGL• Strong sea breezes will have significant turbulence

at the surface and usually advance quickly• Even slow moving sea breeze fronts can still have

significant turbulence • Weak or dissipating sea breezes can become a

gentle wind shift or even decouple from the surface and go unnoticed

Sea Breeze Identification & Tracking

Methods•NEXRAD - Doppler radar •Visual satellite images •Surface weather observations

Image loop from Intellicast.com Image loop from Intellicast.com









Date 06/23/05Keys

Airport 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100BLM 08ESE 10ESE 09SSE 12SSE 07SSE 08S 06S 07SSWACY 06V 09SE 13ESE 10SE 09SE 12SE 07SSE 06SSEWRI 06W 08SW 09NW 08E 12SSE 14SE 12SSE 09SVAY 04V 04V C 07S 06V 06V 09SE 07SSETTN 09SW 04V C C 05SW 05SW 13SSE 12SPNE 04V C 05ESE 07S 06SSE 05S 06SW 08SENXX C 05V C 07WSW 07SSW 06SSW 05SSW 04SSWDYL 05V 05V 07WSW 06SSW 04V 05SSW 04SSE CSMQ 10NNW 06V 06V 06W 07V C C 07SSE

MIV 06V 08SW 07SSW 08SSE 06S 07SSE 05SSE 04SSEILG 07V 10SE 10SE 14SSE 12SSE 14SSE 15SSE 15SSEPHL 04V 05V 05S 05V 09WSW 09S 09S 10S

HourC = Calm V = Variable Yellow = Ocean Blue = Bay Magenta = River


Latest Observation From Bio-Imaging Technologies in Newtown, PA 40° 13' 46"N , 74° 56' 11"W Elevation:340'

5/19/05 7:14:21 PM CURRENT MIN/MAX RATE

Temperature (ºF) 61.5 46.8 at 3:35a 74.0 at 3:52p 3.7

Humidity (%) 43.5 23.8 at 3:57p 86.2 at 3:29a 2.0

Wind (mph) S 10.7 S 19.3 at 5:24p

Daily Rain (") 0.00 No Rain Today 0.00

Pressure ("Hg) 30.04 30.02 at 4:43p 30.15 at 9:09a 0.01

Wind Chill: 60.1 ºF

Monthly Rain: 0.12 "

Dew Point: 39.3 ºF

Wet Bulb: 50.0 ºF

Image source: WeatherBugImage source: WeatherBug

A Typical Balloon Flight With An Afternoon River Breeze

Flight Path - June 23, 2002 - Pilot: Todd NixonFlight Path - June 23, 2002 - Pilot: Todd Nixon


Image from Unisys Corp.Image from Unisys Corp.


Image from NWSImage from NWS


Image from Unisys Corp.Image from Unisys Corp.


Image from Weather UndergroundImage from Weather Underground

History for Northeast Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

on Sunday, May 28, 2006





Closing Remarks

•Sea breezes and other onshore breezes are a dynamic weather event.

•Onshore breeze analysis is time consuming.

•Predicting sea breeze penetration distances is challenging.

• Internet access is vital to the success of my detection and tracking methods.

Closing Remarks

•Wireless Internet access is a great asset on the launch site with an approaching sea breeze.

•Sea breeze spotters are second best to wireless Internet and a great asset while piloting a balloon.

• It would be very helpful if more information about onshore breezes could be included in the afternoon forecast discussions from local NWS offices.

Sea breeze information provided by James Eberwine

National Weather Service – Mt. Holly

Sea breeze research data provided by

Louis Bowers of

Acknowledgements

Documents

Sea Breeze The Invisible Tsunami For the area of NJ & Southeastern PA By Todd Nixon