SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH PROJECTS FOR THE UNDERSTANDING OF THE METEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC PHENOMENA THAT AFFECT THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MEXICO

(1) Centro de InvestigaciónCientífica y EducaciónSuperior de Ensenada,

México

Sergio Reyes Coca (1)Ricardo Troncoso Gaytán (2)Fernando Miranda Reyes (1 )

(2) Centro Regional de Investigación Pesquera,

INP/SAGARPAEnsenada, B.C., México

The area of study is surrounded by:

The northeastern subtropical Pacific ocean,

The Southwestern USA (California and Arizona),

The Sonoran Desert, and

The Gulf of California

Our research group has undertaken different research projects, during the last 25 years to better understand the climatic and meteorological phenomena that may cause different disasters over northern Baja California, México.

• Mexico and USA have two rivers in common: The Colorado (Arizona, California and Baja California) and the Bravo-Grande (Texas and Coahuila, etc.)

The northwestern shows a mediterraneanclimate with winter rains and dry summer. While the eastern and southcentralpeninsula show a semiarid climate with very little rain during the year.

Climatic Pattern over the area of study

Variability of the ClimateWhen the large – scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation departs from the ‘normal’ conditions, B aja California experience extreme and opposite values o f precipitation (showing the largest climatic variabi lity over México), which may cause:

severe and disastrous floods.

large and prolonged droughts

Long-term (inter decadal):Apparently the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the main mechanism that controls the long-term drought / rainy oscillation pattern on the scale of 15 to 30 years, with 10 – 30 % variance.

Middle-term (inter-annual): It is now recognized the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main air/sea mechanism that controls the 3 to 7 years drought / rainy variability, with approximately 30 – 50 % variance.

Large –scale Controls of the Climatic Variability over Baja California:

Chronology de Climatic Extrems in Baja California: 1894-2005

uncertain data | wet | drought | wet | drought ?

Nowadays, the academic community is capable to forecast whether the coming precipitation season will be relatively wet or dry, mainly associated to the ENSO and PDO.

The Long-Term Precipitation Forecast for Baja California

1973 CICESE inititated a local weather forecasting p ublic service

1976 CICESE created the scientific research group i n meteorology

1978 CICESE participated in the FGGE/GARP

1980 – 87 Different local and regional projects to s tudy the precipitation regime over Baja California

1988 -90 TRAVASON / SWAMP To study the basic mechan isms of the north american monsoon circulation over western Mex ico and Southwestern USA

1991-94 EBA (Estudios del Balance del Agua) a region al project to study the water balance and its social and economical im pact on the northern border of Mexico.

1995 – 1999 CRIP/CICESE development of a long –rang e forecasting model of the precipitation, based on wavelet analy sis

1999 -2005 different applications of our model fore casting the actual drought that is prevailing in Baja California, sinc e 1999.

Joint Collaborations

Socio Economical Impact on the Region

Up to the 1970’s the middle and long-term flooding / drought cycle was not understood in Baja California,

It was due to the ENSO event of 1976 and the following wettest winter (1977/78) in Baja California, when we started the study of the inter-annual variability of the wet / dry cycle phenomena.

However, it was during the dry period of the late 80’s (1987 –1989), when it was realized that the worst problems in Baja California were caused by the droughts (not by flooding)

During the past decades (1976 – 2005) our research group has dedicated a considerable effort to better understand the physical processes that regulate and control the precipitation cycle and has presented the results not only to the academic community but also to the general public through newspapers, the radio and TV media.

1. We think Baja Californians have now a better knowledge about the water resources in our region; however, in general, the society still don’t fully understand the vital need to maintain the water balance, which could cause, in the middle and long-term, severe economic and social problems;

2. There is not continuity of the proposed projects. They change accordingly with the government in turn. It is necessary to have a long-term vision;

3. The scientific community has been unable to convince the general public, the government and the water users of the importance to have a more efficient use of the water resources for the self sustained development of our region.

Problems

The geometrical population growth in Tijuana, Mexicali and Ensenada together with the water over-exploitation on the agricultural region, make very improbable that only the precipitation could replen ish our water wells in the long run.

•Needless to say that the water from the Colorado r iver is becoming very uncertain ( by physical and politi cal reasons) for the Baja Californians.

The Water Uncertainty in Baja California

Proposal

The potential participants should include the muni cipal and state government, the universities and research centers, and the agricultural and cattle associations.

The plan should include a complete and reliable inf ormation bank of the water resources, the integration of a research, technology development and human resources group with all the disciplines related to the water

Perhaps the first step to face the expected water crisis in Baja California is by creating a STATE WATER PROGRAM where all the potential participants meet to prepare a major long-term plan

“You do not miss the water until the river goes dry”