Scenarios for the Future of Public Broadcasting

What Does Public Service Mean in the Multi-Choice Digital Age?

Channeling Public Interest Media:Reporting on the Public Broadcast System

Strategic investment scenarios Sustaining investments

Sustain the legacy business Best practices improvements Collaborations to lower costs and gain

scale

Strategic investment scenarios Repositioning investments

Often disruptive innovations (à la Clayton Christensen)

Reposition in new directions consistent with original mission

Über trends in electronic media Digitization Personalization Democratization

Über trends: digitization Content meets mathematics

Noiseless generations for production & distribution

Metadata – data about data Find, manipulate and distribute content

with great granularity and flexibility Repurpose content Extend the life and value of media assets

Search

Über trends: personalization Content meets self-organization

Tagging (‘folksonomies’) XML syndication (RSS, Atom) Attention (metadata that tracks to what

people are paying attention)

Example: Tagging at flickr

Tags / norway

Sample photos from the RSS feed of the tag ‘norway’ from flickr.com

Example: RSS Really Simple Syndication (better: Really

Simple Subscriptions) It’s very easy to implement. It aggregates in one place what’s new in

web content to which you subscribe. Combined with personalization, it will

provide a powerful distribution platform for pubcasters (or, a powerful competitor).

Open a Bloglines.com account and try it.

Über Trends: democratization Content freed from gatekeepers

Inexpensive but powerful production tools

Low barriers to effective distribution Search and referral substitutes for

marketing

Example: Podcasting Works with any portable media players,

PCs, Macs, and most news aggregators. Means adding an enclosure to an RSS 2.0

item (can be a link to any file: MP3, WMV, etc.).

Specialized aggregators can automatically sync your files with the player.

Implications for how we do journalism and production.

The “long tail” meme From Wired Editor in Chief Chris

Anderson “The future of entertainment is in the

millions of niche markets at the shallow end of the bitstream.”

Real time is hits oriented. For non-real time long-tail distribution, success can come with much smaller numbers.

The “long tail” meme Amazon, iTunes, Netflix, et al. have

much larger inventories than corre-sponding brick-and-mortar stores. The average record store has 40,000

tracks, but Rhapsody has 735,000. “The average Barnes & Noble carries

130,000 titles...[, but] more than half of Amazon’s book sales come from outside its top 130,000 titles.

The “long tail” meme

Broadcasters must adapt to A multi-platform future A multi-choice future

A multi-platform future We’re evolving from distribution over

one platform to distribution over multiple platforms: Over-the-air transmitters Internet and broadband Cable and satellite Physical media Mobile and portable devices

From Dave MacCarn, WGBH

A multi-choice future The number of “channels” through which

users will be able to access our content will continue to grow.

Increasingly, users want control over when and where they use our content.

Increasingly, users want choice and personalization.

Successful public broadcasters are morphing into digital libraries.

From Dave MacCarn, WGBH

The new media divide People are taking control over their

media usage. “My time” (non-real time) is the fastest

growing segment of media usage. “I want what I want, when I want it, the

way I want it.” So it’s less and less audio vs. video or

print vs. electronic, it’s ... Real-time vs. “my time.”

Who does “my time” serve? People who have already left linear

programming for other reasons: Career Chores Community Family

People who can’t get enough of what they like on your stations.

CPB TV primetime study PTV viewing was small in two

segments compatible with PTV: “Innovative & Inclined” “Distracted & Unavailable”

Together, they are 26% of viewers: Limited free time Frequent users of technology Medium-to-high users of public radio

CPB TV primetime study

Real-time economics For real-time broadcasting,

distribution costs scale perfectly ($ for 1 = $ for 1,000,000), but time for content is dear.

Rewards AQH listening/viewing. Programmers are tacticians.

Programming strategy is finding hits and competing with other hit-programmers.

“My time” economics For “my time” distribution, costs scale

incrementally with use, but time for content is limited only by storage. Requires a business model to cover incremental

costs. Rewards cumulative access over time. Programmers are curators.

Make the “tail” lo-o-o-ong. Programming strategy is to make content

personalized and accessible.

Public Service Publisher A “my time,” “long tail” repositioning

initiative Public broadcasting stations and

independent producers Partnering with Open Media Network

for content distribution component To include citizen-supplied media Broadcasters can serve as enablers

for community public service content

Public Service Publisher Multi-platform content delivery from a

common user interface Internet

Free Subscription Pay per use

Cable VOD DTV broadcast data caching Physical media (DVD, CD)

Station-supplied Amazon, Netflix, et al.

Public Service Publisher Users can access via portal or station

affiliated pages B2B services Station program guides Fair use recording

New revenue sources Member benefits (more content,

convenient times) New audience revenue (relationship

building, underwriting) User compensation for access to

niche, premium or hard-to-find programming

New revenue sources Assets in permanent distribution build

record of community value, important for tax-based, foundation and philanthropic funding

B2B revenues (rights to distribute, marketing content for derivative works)

Distribution services (datacasting, load balancing, “my time” traffic)

“Pull” urgencies Opportunities:

“My time” use growing rapidly. PBCore, broadband, off-the-shelf core

technologies are in place. Long-tail businesses are succeeding. Pubcasters and partners have great and

deep content assets. There is substantial interest in use of

“my time” electronic media by other public service organizations.

“Push” urgencies Threats:

Competition for pubcasters is coming from the for-profit sector.

It’s no longer a one-platform world. If we cling to one platform, we risk our mission.

XML-based syndication to portable devices is growing and presents a real “bypass” to linear programmers.

Barriers to entry are low. If we don’t do it, someone else will.

Contact information

Dennis L. Haarsager, Associate VP & GMEducational Telecommunications & TechnologyPO Box 642530Washington State UniversityPullman, WA 99164-22530

Contact info: www.haarsager.org/contactWeblog: www.technology360.comResources: www.technology360.org