Scenarios Case Study - NorthStar

7/27/2019 Scenarios Case Study - NorthStar

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NorthStar ScenariosA community-owned process toexplore the future of the NorthernAreas of Port Elizabeth

REOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES

THE PROJECT AT A GLANCE:

Issue: Community Leadership

Geography: Port Elizabeth, South Africa

Duraton:2010-2012

Co-Convenors: NorthernAreasPeoplesDevelopmentIniave(NAPDI)andtheNelsonMandela

Metropolitan Universitys Centre for Advancement of Non-racialism and Democracy

(CANRAD).

Scenarios: FallingStar,LuckyStar,ShoongStar,BrightStar.

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Reos Partners Scenarios Case Study Series 2013 | NorthStar Scenarios 2

The Context

The North Star Scenarios are a set of possible futures

developed for the Northern Areas of Port Elizabeth in

the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro, Eastern Cape, South

Africa.Approximately250,000residentslivehere,

across40neighbourhoodsand11wardcouncils.The

areahasareputaonforgangviolence,drugs,andteen

pregnancy, with unemployment, especially youth

unemployment,higherthan60%.Violenttensionsexist

between coloured and black residents and between

SouthAfricancizensandforeignresidents.Thearea

embodies many of the seemingly intractable challenges

oftheNewSouthAfrica,withthecommunityexisng

atthemarginsoftheso-calleddemocracdividend,

in which local residents, local government, and NGOs

feelpowerlesstoimprovecondions.Peoplesay,its

toocomplex!Therearetoomanyopposinginterests!

Wherecanwestart?

The Convenors

Thescenarioprocesswasiniatedfromwithinthe

community by a small group of dedicated individuals

with roots in the Northern Areas and subsequent

professionalcareers.ThroughtheNorthernAreas

PeoplesDevelopmentIniave(NAPDI),these

volunteerssoughttousetheirskills,experiences,andinuencetobeavoiceinthecommunity,anenabler

of community empowerment, a mobiliser of people

andresources,andacatalystforsystemicchange.

NAPDIhadcapacity,dedicaon,andmostimportantly

broadlocallegimacytoconvenediverseand

opposinggroups,duetoitsreputaonforpolical

neutrality.Butthequesonremainedofhowtoturn

the commitment of a few individuals into a broad

community-owned process, a process that could start

to help diverse groups navigate through uncharted

territory to overcome deeply entrenched barriers to

workingtogether.

NorthStar

ScenariosA community-owned process to

explorethefutureoftheNorthern

Areas of Port Elizabeth


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In2010,basedonthereputaonoftheDinokeng

Scenarios,NAPDIinvitedReosPartnerstofacilitatea

scenarioprocessforthearea.Reoswasableto

complementandcatalysetheconveningcapaciesof

local actors such as NAPDI and the Nelson Mandela

Metropolitan Universitys Centre for Advancement of

Non-racialismandDemocracy(CANRAD).Reosnot

only introduced the scenario methodology, but also

acted as a neutral source of energy and commitment

insupportofacommunitysllunsureofitselfand

thevalueofitsconcerns.

The Process

Overthenext18months,Reosguidedahighly

diverse group of local volunteers through a uniquely

parcipavecreaveprocesstoexploretheir

communityspossiblefutures.Thisincludedtraining

the volunteers in dialogue interviewing techniques,

coaching them to engage residents in a research

processtoelicitperceponsoftheircommunity,and

mentoringthemtoanalyseandpresenttheirndings

in ways that would help the community sense itself asawhole.Thevolunteersreportprovidedthebasisfor

discussionbyascenarioteamof25individuals

including business professionals, youth, community-

basedacvists,sportsadministrators,educators,

healthprofessionals,localgovernmentocials,and

non-governmentworkers,whometforvedaysover

twomonthsinSeptemberandOctober2011.

Thebroad-basedparcipaonensuredthatthe

resulngscenariosreectedthedeepsharedlogicofthecommunity,acommunitysllabletolive,learn,

work, play, and pray and held together against all

oddsbythevaluesofinformallocalleaders.Even

though wracked by an uncertain and seemingly

uncontrollablelocalpolicallandscape,socialfallout

from lack of service delivery, and a challenging

economic environment and employment picture,

local leaders steeped in strong values emerged as the

key dynamic that would give the community thestrengthtoinuenceitsownfuture.Thescenarios

illustrate that while no economic development and

noleadership(JusnsFallenStar)predictablyleadto

a dead-end, economic development without

leadership(LuckysLuckyStar)candothesame.

Leadershipwithoutdevelopment(GeresShoong

Star)isliketreadingwater,butleadershipwith

development(LoliwesBrightStar)isaviableand

hopefulprospect.


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Innovaon and Learning

The North Star Scenarios were an unusual project for

Reos.Reoshadnotpreviouslyworkedatthelevelofa

localcommunityandwithinageographically(rather

thanthemacally)denedspace.Reosgenerallyworkswithbig,oenscarychallengesinwhichthe

facilitatorsrsthavetodevelopasenseofimmediacy

around challenges such as climate change, food

security,andenergystrategy.IntheNorthernAreas,

dangerandfeararehourlyrealies,andalmostallof

theparcipantsinthescenarioprocesshadlostloved

ones to gangs, drugs, and the hopelessness of chronic

unemployment.Thisproximitytophysicaland

structural violence heightened the courage required

forparcipaoninthescenarioprocesses.Notonly

canitbepersonallyriskyforparcipantsand

facilitators to cross the interests of local spoilers if

they are not integrated into the process, but it

requiresemoonalbraverytofaceinternalisedfears

head-onandndwaystoimaginebeyondthem.Reos

tradionallybringstogetherselectedindividual

stakeholderswhoalreadyhaveinuenceandpowerand are seeking a systemic understanding of where to

applyit.IntheNorthStarprocess,thechallengewas

to move hundreds of thousands of people out of the

trap of perceived powerlessness towards a systemic

analysisoftheirexisngcapaciesthatwouldallow

themtotakeownershipoftheirownfutures.

Thehighlyparcipaveprocessdescribedabovewas

animportantinnovaonforachievingthis

empowermentaim,aswasndingasimple,emove,anduniversallylegimatelanguagefor

communicangthescenarios.Thepresentaonofthe

scenariosneededtoenabledierentgroupsinthe

community(dividedbygeneraon,racegroup,

languagegroup,educaonlevel,class,gender,

naonalityandreligion)torecognisethemselvesand

tondsharedpathwaysintothefuture.Itneededto

reachilliterateaunesaswellasuniversitystudents,

gangyouthaswellasreligiousleaders.Italsoneededtocapturetheimaginaonofexternalstakeholders

withaninterestinthedevelopmentoftheregion.

Reosoendrawsonthepowerofstories,andsothe

scenarioteamdecidedtoexpresseachpossible

future through a persons life trajectory over 10 years:

thestoriesofLoliwe,Gere,Lucky,andJusn.

Moving to Acon

These four residents were presented to the

Northern Areas community in May 2012, with the

goalofgenerangenergyforcreaveresponsesto

thesituaonsoutlinedinthescenarios.Launchedby


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Dr.MamphelaRamphele,oneofSouthAfricas(and

theworlds)leadingchampionsofcizenleadership,

thescenariosbroughtnaonalandinternaonal

aenontothearea,notasacrime-infestedexample

of community collapse, but as a community with

concerned, respected, and independent leadershipseekingsoluonsforitself.Inthemonthssincethe

launchandthroughconnuedroadshowsto

disseminate the scenarios, NAPDI has been able to

galvanise the energy produced through the scenario

processintoconcretecommunityacvies.These

include a public space clean-up and recycling process

in Hellendale, one of the harshest neighbourhoods in

the Northern Areas, and within the Nelson Mandela

Metro(ciesofPortElizabeth,Despatch,and

Uitenhage),voluntaryprogrammehelpingmature

studentsgaintheirhighschoolcompleoncercate,

asignicantmarketgapineducaonintheNorth

Areas.Theseacviesarefundedbytheprovincial

government)andthroughNAPDIitselffromvolunteer

me-basedcontribuonsfortheeducaon

programme and triggering other resources now

recommiedtothearea.NAPDIhasgainedatrackrecordasacommiedand

independent facilitator of local development, and the

community has gained an understanding that it is

possiblefordiverseintereststoworktogether.

ForReos,theNorthStarScenariosillustratethat

TransformaveScenarioPlanningiseecveatmany

levels,includingatthecommunitylevel,andcanshi

seeminglyunmovablesituaonswheremanyother

approacheshavebeentriedandabandoned.

FormoreinformaonontheNorthStarScenarios,

please see these related materials:

- TransformaveScenarioPlanning:WorkingTogether

toChangetheFuturebyAdamKahane(Berre-

Koehler,2012).AvailablefromAmazon.

- www.reospartners.com

Documents

Scenarios Case Study - NorthStar