SBU/BNL Climate Modeling: Grand Challenges to the BG

Minghua Zhang

With contributions from the BNL/SBU Team

Vogelmann Miller

JensenWagener

LiuDaumGuo

McGrawSchwartz

LewisChang

ReismanBhatt

Wang

Riemer

Chang

Colle

ZhangMarat K.

Lin

NY BlueNY BlueCenterCenter

(Arguez 2007, “State of the climate in 2006”)

IPCC 2007 Executive Summary:IPCC 2007 Executive Summary:

Climate Modeling

Schematic

Regional Climate Changes Are Largely UnknownRegional Climate Changes Are Largely Unknown

The SBU/BNL Climate Grand Challenges:The SBU/BNL Climate Grand Challenges:

1. What will happen regionally?1. What will happen regionally?• ModelingModeling• MechanismsMechanisms• ImpactImpact

2. How to make the models better?2. How to make the models better?• ProcessesProcesses• Data InfusionData Infusion

Atmospheric Modeling BackgroundAtmospheric Modeling Background

1950s - : Beginning (Charney and von Neumann)

“To von Neumann, meteorology stood the most to gain from high speed computation”

1960-1990s: Expansion Phase

1990- Consolidation and Application

Climate modeling infrastructure in the US

CCSMUniversitiesDOE LabsPrivate Industries

Other Governmental LabsNASA: GSFC & GISSNOAA: GFDL & NCEPNAVY: ONR

CMMAP- CSU NSF STC

Abroad: UKMO, MPI, LMD, Japan, CCC, IAP…

The CCSM Infrastructure(http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu)

Models Organized and Managed by Working Groups (NCAR, Univ., Industries)

AtmosphereOceanLandSea IceChemistry

Coupler

CCSM Organized by Steering Committee and WG co-Chairs

Computational Resource Allocations:

Climate Simulation Laboratory (CSL)

Multi-agency computing facility for the Global Change Science Program of the United States

The DilemmaThe Dilemma

• Funding mechanism is not conducive Funding mechanism is not conducive to exploit new computing capabilityto exploit new computing capability

• Synergy of climate science & Synergy of climate science & computational science has been computational science has been difficultdifficult

This is also true for the Earth SimulatorThis is also true for the Earth Simulator

Proposal from the CCSM Atmospheric WG to CSL for 2007

The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:

1.1. Bring climate scientists directly to the front of Bring climate scientists directly to the front of the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)

2.2. Attack very specific problems in areas of Attack very specific problems in areas of existing strengthexisting strength

3.3. Have clearly defined goals and results to Have clearly defined goals and results to deliver deliver

The TeamThe Team

Vogelmann Miller

JensenWagener

LiuDaumGuo

McGrawSchwartz

LewisChang

ReismanBhatt

Wang

Riemer

Chang

Colle

ZhangMarat K.

Lin

NY BlueNY BlueCenterCenter

Blue = BNLBlue = BNL Red = SBURed = SBU

The Three Themes:The Three Themes:

1.1. Regional Climate Change and Energy Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingModeling

2.2. Outstanding Scientific ProblemsOutstanding Scientific Problems

3.3. Infusion of Data into ModelsInfusion of Data into Models

Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingRegional Climate Change and Energy Modeling

• MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation), an integrated energy, environment and economic model, examines market potential for energy technologies over a short-, medium- and long-term horizon under alternative policy scenarios within the entire energy system.

• Developed at BNL in 1970s, continuously updated/validated by the user community and used by more than 100 institutions in 55 countries

Global warming mitigation strategies with regional climate change as input

Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingRegional Climate Change and Energy Modeling

Outstanding ProblemsOutstanding Problems

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(105 km)2

(104 km)2

(103 km)2

(102 km)2

(101 km)2

(1 km)2Mo

del

Do

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ize

Increasing computer power

GC

M

WRF

Microphysics

GC

RM

LES

DNS

CRM

(106 km)2

(105 km)2

(104 km)2

(103 km)2

(102 km)2

(101 km)2

(1 km)2Mo

del

Do

mai

n S

ize

(106 km)2

(105 km)2

(104 km)2

(103 km)2

(102 km)2

(101 km)2

(1 km)2Mo

del

Do

mai

n S

ize

(106 km)2

(105 km)2

(104 km)2

(103 km)2

(102 km)2

(101 km)2

(1 km)2Mo

del

Do

mai

n S

ize

Increasing computer power

GC

M

WRF

Microphysics

GC

RM

LES

DNS

CRM

Increasing computer power

GC

M

WRF

Microphysics

GC

RM

LES

DNS

CRM

Model Grid Size

Infusion of Data Into ModelsInfusion of Data Into Models

BNL Unique Strength in Radar and Satellite Measurements

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The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:The SBU/BNL Uniqueness:

1.1. Bring climate scientists directly to the front of Bring climate scientists directly to the front of the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)the NY Blue (Need IBM Help)

2.2. Attack very specific problems in areas of Attack very specific problems in areas of existing strengthexisting strength

3.3. Have clearly defined goals and results to Have clearly defined goals and results to deliver deliver