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Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast 2009-2010
Presented by:Santee-Lynches Regional COG
& The BB&T Center for Economic and Community Developmentat Coastal Carolina University
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
job
s, 1
00
0s
SC Total EmploymentJan 1990 – March 2009
June 2000:1,883,300 jobs
March 2009:1,853,300 jobs
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
an
nu
al %
ch
an
ge
SC Total Employment: Annual Job GrowthJan 1939 – March 2009
March 2009:-4.9%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
S.C. U.S.
pe
rce
nt
Unemployment RatesJan. 1976 – March 2009
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Initial ClaimsUnemployment Rate
ave
rag
e w
ee
kly
cla
ims u
ne
mp
loym
en
t rate
S.C. Unemployment IndicatorsJan. 1987 – March 2009
A Few Key Sectors in South Carolina
• 2008Q1 – 2009Q1: SC lost 83 thousand jobs– Manufacturing: -22,000– Leisure & Hospitality: -14,000– Retail Trade: -14,000– Construction: -10,000 (-19,000 since 2007Q1)
• These sectors ~ 40% of all jobs
• These + Govt. ~ 60% of all jobs
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Industrial Production
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Capacity Utilization
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
S.C. Durable Goods Jobs
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
S.C. Nondurable Goods Jobs
ind
ex
pe
rce
nt
job
s, 1
00
0s
job
s, 1
00
0s
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
US New Home Sales
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
S.C. Single Family Permits
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
S.C. Multi-Family Permits
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
S.C. Construction Jobs
an
nu
aliz
ed
, 10
00
s
qu
art
erl
y p
erm
its
qu
art
erl
y p
erm
its
job
s, 1
00
0s
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
SC Real Retail Sales
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
SC Real Sales Per Worker
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
SC Leisure & Hospitality Jobs
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
SC Retail Jobs
qu
art
erl
y sa
les,
$m
illio
ns
(19
82
do
llars
)
rea
l do
llars
job
s, 1
00
0s
job
s, 1
00
0s
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
S.C. Employment GrowthS.C. Unemployment Rate
pe
rce
nt
S.C. Labor Market Indicators1976Q1 – 2010Q4
Gross Retail Sales($ billions)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
History $2.56 $2.81 $3.22 $3.34 $3.59 $3.93 $3.68
Forecast $3.25 $3.24
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Employment(thousands)
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
History 84.4 86.8 87.9 89.1 89.7 88.6 86.1
Forecast 81.8 81.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Labor Force(thousands)
87.0
88.0
89.0
90.0
91.0
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
History 90.7 93.8 95.2 97.0 97.0 95.0 93.8
Forecast 94.3 94.9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Unemployment Rate(percent)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
History 7.0 7.5 7.7 8.1 7.6 6.7 8.2
Forecast 13.2 14.6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Santee-LynchesSouth CarolinaUnited States
pe
rce
nt
Historical Unemployment Rates1994 - 2008
-7,606manufacturingjob losses from2000-3rdQ ‘08
for region.
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
+2,010
non-manufacturing job gains from
2000-3rdQ ’08 for region.
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Whole body of 8th graders
through the years
65% - 70% are graduating high
school with a diploma
over time in region.
High School Years
Public high school graduation rates in region
• Current region average of 65% to 70% is about equal to state average.
• U.S. average is about 72% in recent years.
Source: S.C. Department of Education enrollment and diploma data
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Single Family Building Permits(# of permits)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
History 806 985 1,218 1,528 1,457 1,369 732
Forecast 475 506
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Single Family Permits Value($millions)
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
$180.0
History $82.2 $97.9 $123.2 $156.3 $161.3 $159.1 $85.7
Forecast $55.2 $58.9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Manufactured/Mobile Home Permits(# of permits)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
History 1,362 1,197 966 931 834 737 609
Forecast 457 297
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nonresidential Building Permits(# of permits)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
History 160 147 123 146 170 150 117
Forecast 82 82
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nonresidential Permit Value($millions)
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
History $76.0 $50.3 $36.9 $37.1 $65.4 $28.1 $71.1
Forecast $32.8 $36.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP Growth Rate(percent)
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
History 1.6 2.5 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.0 1.1
Forecast -3.3 0.6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CPI Inflation Rate(percent)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
History 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8
Forecast -1.2 1.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Prime Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
History 4.7 4.1 4.3 6.2 8.0 8.1 4.6
Forecast 3.3 3.4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
History 6.5 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.3 6.0
Forecast 4.7 4.9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3-Month Treasury Rate(percent)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
History 1.6 1.0 1.4 3.1 4.7 4.4 1.4
Forecast 0.5 0.6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10-Year Treasury Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
History 4.6 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.7
Forecast 3.0 3.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
South Carolina Total Employment(millions)
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
History 1.80 1.81 1.83 1.87 1.91 1.94 1.93
Forecast 1.85 1.82
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
South Carolina Unemployment Rate(percent)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
History 6.0 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.3 5.6 6.9
Forecast 12.8 14.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
