The Economic Outlookfor

South Carolina and the

Santee-Lynches Region 2012-2013

May 3, 2012

Rob SalvinoCoastal Carolina University

S.C. Total Employment (Millions)

S.C. Unemployment Rate

S.C. Aggregate Wages and Salaries by Sector ($ Millions)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

State and Local Govt

Manufacturing

Health Care and Social Assistance

Retail

Construction

Accommodation and Food Services

Federal, civilian

S.C. Single Family Permits (number)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

History 40998 38895 29870 18604 12795 12142 12237 NaN NaN

Forecast NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 13125 13975

2,500

7,500

12,500

17,500

22,500

27,500

32,500

37,500

42,500

Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast 2012-2013

Presented by:The Santee-Lynches Regional Workforce Investment Board

&the BB&T Center at Coastal Carolina University

Santee-Lynches Gross Retail Sales ($Billions)

Santee-Lynches Net Taxable Sales ($Billions)

Santee-Lynches Employment

Santee-Lynches Labor Force

Labor Force = Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work

Santee-Lynches Unemployment Rate

Number of Unemployed seeking work

Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed seeking work

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

4.3

6.37.0

7.5 7.78.1

7.6

6.7

7.8

12.612.2

11.5

3.5

5.25.9

6.7 6.8 6.86.4

5.6

6.8

11.5 11.2

10.3

4.04.8

5.86.0

5.55.1

4.6 4.6

5.8

9.3 9.69.0

Average annual unemployment rates, 2000 - 2011

Region STATE U.S.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (3 qtrs avg.)

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000 19,868

18,174

16,547 16,49215,781

14,768

13,80713,254

12,178

10,4979,841 9,688

Region's manufacturing jobs by year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (3 qtrs avg.)

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000

54,000

55,000

51,570

50,789

51,467 51,500

52,587 52,934

53,493

54,311

53,222

50,791 50,939 51,065

Region's non-manufacturing jobs by year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

Projected Timeline

2011 2021

18 (key mgt. positions)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

150 (prod. leads)

240 130 130 130

800 totalhere

1,600 totalhereWages

$33,000 avg. production wage$55,000 avg. overall wage

“If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy

is education, education, education.”

Dr. JOHN S. BUTLERProfessor, University of Texas

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August 2011 U6 Unemployment Rates for adults 25-and-older. U6 Rate measures the total unemployed, plus those employed part-time involuntarily, plus discouraged workers who have at least temporarily given up searching for work. Thus, U6 rates describe the real number of people in the U.S. who are feeling the effects of unemployment. U6 national rates applied to Santee-Lynches Region by COG calculation.

Source: Employment Security Commission UI Unique Claimants* Approximately 18.2% of UI claimants during the years didn’t provide educational attainment level on claimant form; therefore their data isn’t included here.

High school diploma / GED or less

1 or 2 years of post-secondary educ.

3 or more years of post-secondary educ.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0% 76.9%

15.4%

7.7%

75.7%

16.2%

8.1%

76.4%

15.9%

7.7%

75.1%

16.2%

8.7%

Educational attainment of UI Unique Claimants in Region by Year*

2006 2007 2008 2009

Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 201033.0%

36.0%

39.0%

42.0%

45.0%

48.0%

51.0%

54.0%

57.0%

45.1%46.2%

44.7%46.2%

47.9%46.4% 45.9%

47.8%

50.2%

47.2%

49.2% 49.4% 50.0%50.8%

51.7%53.1%

55.1%56.1%

Percentage of students enrolling in college, other postsecondary, or military in first fall term after expected high school completion date

Santee-Lynches STATE

Source: SC Dept. of Education’s 8th grade enrollment totals and College Freshman Report.Percentage estimates are likely within 5% margin of error of true rate of cohort entry into postsecondary and the military directly after high school.

Santee-Lynches Single Family Permits

Santee-LynchesSingle Family Permits – Value ($Millions)

Santee-Lynches Mfgd/Mobile Homes - Number

Santee-LynchesNon-Residential Permits – Number

Santee-LynchesNon-Residential Permits – Value ($Millions)

Forecast Summary• Gross Retail Sales rising because of higher employment,

income and inflation. High gas and food prices will still curtail discretionary spending to some extent.

• Employment improving more in 2012 and ’13, given pent-up demand, industrial expansions and other announcements creating more optimism.

• Educate and train workforce for 21st Century jobs. Importance of post-secondary education. Fewer and fewer opportunities for low-skilled workers.

• Residential Construction still low.• Nonresidential Construction improving.

Real GDP (Growth Rate)

CPI (Inflation Rate)

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Prime Rate

30-Year Mortgage Rate

10-Year Treasury Rate

3-Month Treasury Rate