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Santa Claus and the US:

Growing Tensions A monograph by Matt Warren

Friday, December 10, 02009

Geopolitical changes are guiding Santa Claus onto a collision course with American power.

The resulting conflict may cause rapid expansion of names on the naughty list.

Introduction For most of history, issues relating to Santa Claus and the Northern Polar Region haven’t had any geopolitical significance

beyond the events of the Christmas season. The longstanding multi-polarity of the international system coupled with a wide

capability gap ensured a peace that kept varied nationalist interests at bay. However, certain technological, socio-political, and

geographical changes are threatening this peace.

Early History During the 17th century, the Western world's celebration of Christmas

was still centered on the birth of Jesus Christ. All the while, another

cultural figure from the long forgotten pagan past began to reemerge.

Santa Claus' yearly donation of gifts and goodwill to those who were on

the good list ensured that Santa’s prestige would grow.

Most of the time, Santa’s activities were limited to the north of Europe

and in mostly Germanic cultures. By the end of the century, Santa had

near-global cultural penetration (however small it was in exotic locales).

Among members of informal economies, Santa made the jump from

"quaint children's story" to influential personality.

Santa Claus and his Elves (SCE) trace their cultural ancestry back to

the fourth century, though official proof can only be traced to the early

19th century. Santa Claus, a being who can bend time and accomplish

impossible feats, is very hard to locate. He is also the original non-state

actor, in a class of his own.

SCE are part of the Northern Polar Region (NPR), which includes all of the arctic and (unofficially) overlaps the north most

borders of Canada, Greenland, and Russia. While Santa’s connection to the Christmas holiday is fairly well documented, his

role in the international order is poorly understood.

Figure 1. The rough outlines of the Northern

Polar Region. Santa’s precise location is unknown.

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For most of the history of the 19th century, national

governments didn’t regard Santa's role with any seriousness.

Those in the political and military establishments of the day

remained unconvinced of his existence. But as the 1840's began,

the photographic evidence began to pile up and Santa could not

be ignored. The general public may have regarded Santa Claus

with fondness, but politicians and military planners quietly

wondered if they should be concerned.

By the 1890's, open talk about the nature and origins of Santa

became commonplace at Salons all over Europe. Even

clergymen who, just a generation before, would have

condemned such inquiry, engaged in the spirited debate. The

apparent reality of Santa served to buttress the Church's

arguments regarding the supernatural nature of Jesus Christ.

Though this was not the official position of the churches, it was

still significant.

Santa’s Nature The modern picture of Santa Claus was effectively established

by the start of the 20th century, though precise information is

hard to come by.

What we know is carefully chosen from the truth, myth, and outright falsehoods that characterize Santa research. The best we

can say is this: Somewhere in the NPR, Santa Claus presides as ruler of an autocracy. A society of elves crafts toys – often in

gross violation of international patent, trademark, and labor laws – at mysterious underground settlements. Subterranean candy

cane forests provide high-fructose feedstock for the citizenry.

The religious makeup of SCE is unknown, though it is theorized that Santa Claus is himself worshipped in some capacity.

Though there is no official knowledge of the economic system employed, it’s likely some form of central planning. The high

volume of specific, high-tech innovations delivered on Christmas Eve makes this both reasonable and cause for concern.

One aspect of Santa Claus' personal nature has been consistent throughout history: Santa does not communicate officially with

any governments or organizations in the world. This includes communication with companies, communities, or even families.

Every interaction is one-on-one, and even then, these chance meetings are usually brief and shrouded in mystery. It is

theorized that this quality has a magical basis, but this is unconfirmed.

Modern History Prior to the Wright brothers' historic first flight on 1903, the Christmas Eve skies belonged to the birds and to Santa Claus. By

1914, Europe was in open war and the previously peaceful airspace was threatening Santa for the very first time. The first

bombing runs of 1914 were not a danger, but the start of air-to-air combat the following year would increase the risk to Santa.

On Christmas Eve, 1916, a British pilot patrolling the English Channel mistook Santa Claus for a German airplane and

opened fire. Santa was fortunately unharmed. The event was later classified while British emissaries were dispatched to

formally apologize for the incident. However, they were unsuccessful at locating him. In the years that followed, Santa Claus

adopted more erratic flight patterns when delivering toys inside warzones.

Figure 2. The earliest known photograph of Santa Claus.

This digitally restored photograph and numerous eye-

witness accounts has placed the proof of Santa Claus’

existence to Christmas Eve in 1833.

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Apace with the continuing modernization of military forces

around the world, Santa Claus has adopted newer and better

forms of magic as a countermeasure. The use of fairy dust and

amnesia shields has been confirmed. Recent photographic

intelligence has revealed that Santa Claus may be employing

technological solutions as a supplement for magical tools, though

this too remains unconfirmed.

Whether due to Santa's advanced flying techniques or caution

on the part of militaries, there were no significant encounters

between 1916 and 1942. However, something did happen

during at the first few years following World War II. Most

Americans understood the broad outlines called the Cold War,

but none experienced it as directly as Santa Claus.

The territorial competition that arose between the US and the USSR had a geographic quality that most did not consider. The

two powers’ spheres of control were directly separated by the Northern Polar Region. Santa was locked between two tense

giants. This created an uncomfortable environment among the three actors, but SCE managed this situation with neutrality.

Arctic ice couldn’t be navigated well enough by both navies and the balance of power played its part to ensure NPR integrity.

The problem wasn't the Cold War. The problem was what would happen when the Cold War ended.

A New Calculus What has changed now is due to a confluence of factors that haven't been encountered before. The calculus of the players is

shifting. The US believes that Santa's supernatural transportation powers are active only on Christmas Eve, but because very

little is known about SCE manufacturing facilities, supply chains, and overall capabilities, the US is operating with little data.

American foreign policy is focused on controlling the international trade system – the world’s oceans. This includes the arctic.

But why is America coming into conflict when there has been peaceful coexistence for centuries? And why now?

There is much heated discussion about America’s inherent evil. But while that satisfies partisan sensibilities, the reasons are

actually embedded in the socio-technological makeup of the modern world. If the USSR had somehow defeated the West

during the cold war, then a powerful Russia would be encountering the same problems. Here’s why:

The Unipolar World The fall of the USSR in early in the 1990's left the United States off balance,

the sole inheritor of the international trade system. As a result, the US has

been forced to extend its military reach farther in order to protect its gains.

Unlike the empires of old (which by modern standards of mobility were

merely regional), there is now one nation that can go anywhere in the world

it wants at any time it wants.

Rather than an orientation toward large national threats, the US started

looking at smaller nations and transnational entities that could affect them.

After 9/11, what was a tendency became a national policy. More than ever,

the United States couldn't allow any region to be outside its jurisdiction.

Figure 4. The American flag. Note the pretty

colors.

Figure 3. A Vickers Gunbus. During World War I, a pilot of

this bi-plane became the first human in history to attack

Santa Claus.

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With no presence at the United Nations and no formal way to communicate with SCE, the US has come to fear such a

strategic vulnerability.

US Dominance of Space A lack of diplomatic access is one thing, but a profound intelligence deficit is another. There are no maps and no human

intelligence from the NPR. To this day, not one manufacturing facility has been located. Spy satellite technology has

accelerated in recent years in order to provide better orbital surveillance, but as of yet, there is still no useful intelligence.

Experts are convinced that Santa has adapted rocket technology for

his sleigh. This observation was made in 2000. While Santa activists

would have us believe this engine is a counterbalance for the lack of

belief among the world’s children, the reality is much different. Santa

Claus needs to evade the airspace detection grids and low-orbit

reconnaissance satellites that are now ubiquitous. The “belief” level

of children is a convenient cover for Santa’s practical necessities.

At some point, America’s efforts will outstrip the SCE's ability to

conceal their operations. While SCE has the benefit of powerful

magic, our technological understanding of the cosmos has yielded

greater tools for solutions. Added to that is the fact that magical

understanding has declined over the many centuries and is steadily

declining toward a lost art.

American leaders are nervous about protecting the nation's interests

in the long term. This arrangement will be degraded as new orbital

satellites and offensive technologies come on line in the coming

decade.

Climate Change While there's a lot of heated political rhetoric about the specifics, the scientific community’s consensus is that sea levels will

rise. It's only a question of how soon and how high. Whether or not it's a threat to SCE, the American perception is that it is a

threat, and this perspective guides US

decision-making.

Within this context, the retreat of the

Arctic glaciers has a strong geopolitical

component. The key concern is

predictability, which is what Santa

Claus has possessed from the start.

He's never been late and never come

close to missing a Christmas, contrary

to the fanciful and inaccurate tales in

the media.

Figure 5. While the 2003 biopic “Elf” was largely

inaccurate propaganda, the depiction of a jet-engine on

Santa’s sleigh is drawn from legitimate photographic

evidence from Santa’s deliveries on Christmas Eve, 2000

(Elf, Starring Will Ferrell, New Line Cinema, 2003).

Figure 6. The retreat of the polar ice caps between 1979 and 2003. It is unknown what

impact this will have on the NPR.

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This predictability will be tested if the rise of sea levels impacts the NPR. It’s simply unknown what will happen.

Over the past decade, on Christmas Eve, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of books and DVD's about arctic

preservation. Policymakers recognize this is as not so subtle indicator of Santa's opinions on the matter. While having no

definitive guidance, politicians have a way to approach the issue.

Our Modern Crisis If this analysis is true, it’s only a matter of time before Santa

Claus takes measures to protect his interests. But why

doesn’t Santa negotiate an agreement with the US? Santa is

likely concerned that breaking his longstanding tradition of

non-communication will erode his credibility. SCE would be

seen as a puppet-state operating with US permission, not an

independent humanitarian entity. Even if American intent is

benign, it may not always be and Santa simply can’t risk that.

By all accounts, SCE lacks any large scale military resources.

This means that any resolution must involve US restraint. It

follows that Santa must pressure other nations and

organizations to bring American behavior into line. Whether

the aim is to gain additional land or assurances of peace from

the international community, Santa could employ any of the

following, alone or together.

Annex or purchase additional land bordering existing NPR territory.

Add an additional gift-giving holiday to the calendar. Christmas II would generate additional goodwill.

Conduct industrial espionage to obtain leverage against first-world nations.

Tie climate control efforts to his distribution of gifts each year.

Create a “kids only” holiday wherein all adolescents in compliant nations receive one painfully adorable puppy.

The US is concerned about raising the ire of the Christmas world. Our era is one of deep distrust and imbalance and no matter

how cogently the argument is made for expanding control over the NPR, no one will trust American intent. Also, regardless

who has the upper hand in this matter, both parties stand to lose a lot of peace, goodwill, and tidings of comfort and joy if

hostilities flare up any further.

So it’s a stalemate. The US makes subtle threats to encroach on NPR territory and Santa threatens to put the nation on the

Naughty List. It is an asymmetrical balance of power and there are good questions about how long that balance will last.

Merry Christmas.

Figure 7. One of Santa Claus’ “helpers” holds a few letters from

U.S. children. Unless this crisis is resolved, they may receive

only coal in their stockings.