SAN MATEO COUNTY CCA TECHNICAL STUDY: OVERVIEW

Community Choice Energy Advisory Committee

June 25th,2015

Key Elements of the Technical Study

Load Analysis

Rate Analysis

Pro Forma Analysis

Supply Portfolio Analysis

Economic Impact

Analysis

Technical Study Report

analytics start with

load data and customer

composition

scenarios addressing

renewable and carbon free content

as well as other program

assumptions (i.e., energy efficiency,)

revenue generated through

projected energy sales

(at PG&E rates) and discounted CCA rates

(assumes that PG&E rate

structure is maintained,

including identical rate schedules for

CCA customers)

program financial results are

projected with an emphasis on cash flows, revenues, power costs, net surplus, and debt

structure impacts on indirect

and direct job creation (i.e., local renewable energy

projects) are estimated

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CCA Supply Scenarios• Option 1: Baseline, minimum 35% renewable energy

content (exceeds 33% legal minimum)• Option 2: Minimum 50% renewable energy content• Option 3: High scenario of 100% renewable energy content

with emphasis on use of local/regional generating resources • PEA will consider variations in how renewable and non-

renewable energy can be obtained as well as related impacts to projected CCA operations:• Location: in-state, in-county, out-of-state• Fuel Source/Generating Technology: natural gas, hydro-electric,

solar, wind, geothermal, system purchases• Portfolio Content Category/Bucket: bundled (Bucket 1), firmed and

shaped (Bucket 2), unbundled renewable energy certificates (Bucket 3)• Power purchase agreement vs. direct investment

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CCA Risk Assessment• PEA will complete a full risk assessment for San Mateo

County’s CCA• Quantitative risk assessment: evaluated by modeling the

financial impacts associated with changes to key assumptions (e.g., power prices, utility rates, etc.)

• Qualitative risk assessment: evaluated by determining potential risks and mitigation strategies associated with the following areas:o Implications related to CCA disbandment/failureoOver- and under-procurement as well as schedulingoRegulatory/legislative risks (i.e., evolving RPS requirements,

GHG reporting, capacity rules and costs; bonding requirements)

oAvailability of desired supply and related market risksoCommunications/marketing and prospective political risks

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Essential Program Decisions• Retail product offerings (i.e., 50% and 100% renewable

products)o Renewable energy content targeto Composition of renewable energy portfolio (different categories and

technologies)

• Targeted GHG-free emissions content• Use of new vs. existing generating sources• Local renewable project development• Use of unspecified sources for conventional power supply• Complementary programs (feed-in-tariff, net energy

metering, demand reduction programs, energy efficiency, etc.)

• Financial targets (reserves, rate stabilization fund, debt service, etc.)

• Phasing of customer enrollments• Credit structure (i.e., lockbox, credit facility, County

funding, etc.)

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Technical Study Timeline• Currently compiling modeling assumptions• Study to be completed within 60-days customer data receipt

(CCA INFO tariff, item #16 – this data will provide monthly, customer-specific data for all prospective CCA customers)

• Draft “Fully Outsourced Business Model” assessment has been completed (and will be included within the Technical Study Report)• Assessment focused on recently promoted CCA business model, which

outsources all substantive responsibilities typically undertaken by California’s operating CCAs, including resource planning and procurement, compliance reporting, ratesetting, etc.

• Related documents, including proposed services agreement, feasibility report and other items, were reviewed as part of this assessment

• Draft assessment was circulated for “internal” review• Comments were provided and incorporated in final draft document

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