Sample of a Project Proposal

Final year project proposal

Tibow Al 00/UG/12263 Page i

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

IPCC Inter governmental panel on climate change

NAPA National adaptional plan for action

UBOS Uganda bureau of statistics

UMD Uganda Meteorological Department

SRES Special report on emission scenarios

GCM Global climate models

FAO Food and agriculture organization

DWD Directorate of water development

CWR Crop water requirement

ETO Reference evapotranspiration rate

KC Crop coefficient

ETC Crop evapotranspiration rate


Tibow Al 00/UG/12263 Page ii

ABSTRACT

Global climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas concentration has been widely accepted.

Natural and human systems are expected to be exposed to direct effects of temperature and

precipitation change. The agriculture sector is most vulnerable to climate change. Thus, climate

change can have serious implications on the agro-based national economy of Uganda. Limited

studies have been carried out to analyze the impacts of climate change in a national level. However,

impacts of climate change in the basin level have not been quantified yet. Moreover, spatial and

temporal variability of climate change might be hazardous in a local level. Considering these facts,

this study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on crop water use and productivity in the

Sezibwa river basin.

To evaluate local effects of climate change, Statistical tools will be used in the trend analysis and

scenario development of climatic variables. Assessment of crop water use and productivity in the

basin will be carried out using (i) weather data and (ii) weather data modified by plausible future

climate change through widely accepted CROPWAT computer model.

Keywords:

Climate change, Water Scarcity, Agriculture, Evapotranspiration, CROPWAT, Sezibwa


Tibow Al 00/UG/12263 Page iii

Table of Contents

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................... i

ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................. ii

CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................................... 1

1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Back ground ............................................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 Problem statement ................................................................................................................................... 2

1.3 Justification ............................................................................................................................................. 2

1.4 Objectives ............................................................................................................................................... 3

1.4.1 Main Objective ..................................................................................................................................... 3

1.4.2 Specific Objectives .............................................................................................................................. 3

CHAPTER TWO .......................................................................................................................................... 4

2.0 Literature review ..................................................................................................................................... 4

2.1 General .................................................................................................................................................... 4

2.2 Global Climate Change ........................................................................................................................... 4

2.2.1 Global Temperature change ................................................................................................................. 5

2.2.2 Global Precipitation change ................................................................................................................. 5

2.3 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security; a global perspective ............................................................ 6

2.4 Projections of Future Climate Change .................................................................................................... 6

2.5. Creating Climate Change Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 7

2.6 Physical Impacts of Climate Change ...................................................................................................... 8

2.6.2 Crop water requirement (ETM) ............................................................................................................. 9

2.6.3 Crop coefficient (KC) ........................................................................................................................... 9


Tibow Al 00/UG/12263 Page iv

2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC) ................................................................................................ 10

2.7 Methods used to estimate evapotranspiration ....................................................................................... 11

2.8 Estimating Crop Water Use and Demand ............................................................................................. 11

2.9 Impacts on Crop Water Use and Productivity....................................................................................... 12

CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................................... 13

3.0 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................... 13

3.1 Study Area ............................................................................................................................................ 13

3.2 Acquisition and analysis of climatic and river flow data of Sezibwa basin .......................................... 14

3.2.1 Data collection ................................................................................................................................... 14

3.1.2Data analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 15

3.3 Identification and analysis of different soil types and land use within the catchment by means soil

sampling and maps ...................................................................................................................................... 15

3.3.1 Development of Maps ........................................................................................................................ 15

3.3.2Soil sampling and analysis .................................................................................................................. 16

3.4 Determination of relative crop evapotranspiration rates in various climate variability and climate

change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future (2050) projection. ....................... 16

3.5 Quantifying the impacts of climate change on crop yields in different climate change scenarios and

carrying out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future demand with the available water.

.................................................................................................................................................................... 17

3.5.1 Yield reduction ................................................................................................................................... 17

3.5.1 Water balance analysis ....................................................................................................................... 17

3.6 Quantifying other types (domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand within the catchment for

the present and future (2050)projection ...................................................................................................... 18

3.6.1 Livestock Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 18

3.6.2 Domestic Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 19

3.6.3 Industrial Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 20


Tibow Al 00/UG/12263 Page v

LIST OF FIGURES

Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several ............................ 5

Fig:2. 2: Range of percentage change in crop yield (IPCC, 1997) ................................................. 6

Fig:2. 3 Reference evapotranspiration (source: Allen et al.,1998) ................................................. 8

Fig: 2. 4: Crop water requirement ................................................................................................... 9

Fig: 2. 5: The crop coefficient ....................................................................................................... 10

Fig: 2. 6: Actual evapotranspiration .............................................................................................. 10

Fig: 3 1: A map of the approximate study area boundary of river sezibwa catchment ................ 13

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3. 1: Type of data collected and the respective source ....................................................... 14

Table3. 2: Required climatic parameters used as inputs to CROPWAT ...................................... 16


Tibow Al 00/UG/12263 Page 1

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Back ground

Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over

periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It is a change in the average weather

conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average.

Globally, it is a known fact that climate change is the single greatest environmental threat to life

on earth. It not only impacts on our environment physically and economically, it also affects us

socially and culturally. There is need therefore to prioritize activities that respond to our urgent

and immediate needs to adapt to climate change.

Climate change is accelerated by the increase in green house gas concentration in the atmosphere

with industrialized developed countries contributing 60% of the total global emissions. (IPCC,

2001)

Historical climate records show that Africa has already experienced a warming of 0.7ºC, with

Global models predicting a further increase at a rate of 0.2- 0.5ºC per decade (IPCC, 2001).Over

the past two decades climate change has increasingly become recognized as a serious threat to

sustainable development, with current and projected impacts on areas such as environment,

agriculture, energy, human health, food security, economic activity, natural resources and

physical infrastructure.

In Uganda, there is already evidence of climate change as a result of global warming. According

to National Adaptation Plan of Action 2007, the frequency of droughts has increased. For

example, seven droughts were experienced between 1991 and 2007. One of the permanent

examples of the effect of global warming is the gradual disappearances of tropical ice caps

around Mt Kilimanjaro and Rwenzori (NAPA Uganda 2007).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duration



Faced with the problem of high population growth rates of 3.3% of which 73% are dependant on

rain fed agriculture for their livelihood (UBOS, 2005), Uganda as a country is very vulnerable to

the effects of climate change. And as the population increases, Uganda's previously cherished

climate is drastically changing from the bimodal rainfall pattern. This has been attributed to

environmental degradation coupled with global warming (UMD, 2008) making rainfall

dependant agriculture unreliable.

Thus, the impact that has been caused by climate change that is coupled with the current

economic crisis, will lead to the reversal of the achievements made towards the Millennium

Development Goals.

Therefore, in order to fully adapt to the effects of climate change, there is thus an urgent need to

determine the effects of climate change on crop water requirements and to predict the impact of

future climate scenarios on crop production.

1.2 Problem statement

Rapid population growth, increased urbanization and industrialization, uncontrolled

environmental degradation and pollution are some of the challenges affecting the utilization of

freshwater resources in Uganda today (Phillips P Lukwiya., 2009). These problems have further

been aggravated by the gradual increase in the average temperature of the earth. Temperature

and rainfall being decisive factors for production of agriculture in Uganda, the sudden change in

these factors due to climate change has rendered rain fed agriculture unreliable thus aggravating

problems of food security in the country. As a result, persistent food shortages, flooding and

draughts are unacceptably high and periodic famine has become a common phenomenon in

many parts of Uganda.

1.3 Justification

The study will avail information on the impact of climate change on crop water requirements, the

data obtained, will therefore be used to predict the impact of future climate scenarios on crop

production.



Also, food security with in river sezibwa catchment will be increased by the sustainable use of

the catchment and the incorporation of adoptive strategies within farming methods to reduce the

effects of climate change.

The data obtained will also help the country develop a national climate change policy, climate

change research agenda, district capacity building programmes and sensitization campaigns.

1.4 Objectives

1.4.1 Main Objective

The main objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on crop water demand

and productivity in river Sezibwa catchment.

1.4.2 Specific Objectives

To obtain and analyze climatic data of river sezibwa basin in order to identify changes in

the climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation and relative humidity)

To identify and analyze different soil types and land use within the catchment by means

soil sampling and maps

To determine relative crop evapotranspiration in various climate variability and climate

change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future (2050)projection

Quantify other types ( domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand within the

catchment for the present and future (2050)projection

To quantify the impacts of climate change on crop yield in different climate change

scenarios and carry out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future

demand with the available water.



CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature review

2.1 General

Weather is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere around the earth distinguished by temperature,

wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements. They are part of the daily experience of

human beings and are essential for health, food production and well-being. Climate refers to the

average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a certain time-span and a certain

area; it varies from place to place depending upon latitude and other geographical factors.

Statistically significant trends in the mean state of the climate or of its variability, typically

persisting for decades or longer, are referred to as climate change (IPCC, 2001a). This chapter

aims to briefly summarize the information on climate change and its impacts on the world and on

Uganda in particular. Based on the available information, the knowledge gaps in this field in case

of Uganda are pointed out.

2.2 Global Climate Change

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the

atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate. The Earth’s climate system has

demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era; however

the rate of global climate change during the 20th

century was greater than before. For example,

average global temperature increased by approximately 0.6±0.2º C during the 20th

century, which

was greater than in any other century in the last 1,000 years. The warming rate became even

more pronounced during the second half of the last century, which was predominantly due to the

increase in anthropogenic green house gas concentration in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001b).



2.2.1 Global Temperature change

The observed global average surface temperature (the average of near surface air temperature over

land and sea surface temperature) records from 1861 to 2000 show that the earth’s temperature is

increasing (See fig. below) and most of the warming occurred during the second half of the twentieth

century, specially in two periods, 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000. Over the 20th

century the increase

has been 0.6±0.2º C (IPCC, 2001b). Different models all predict a general increase in the surface

temperature of the earth within the next decade as illustrated in the figure below

Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several

Source: National centre for atmospheric research and the United States national assessment

of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, 2000

2.2.2 Global Precipitation change

Increasing temperatures tend to increase evaporation which leads to more precipitation (IPCC,

2007). As average global temperatures have risen, average global precipitation has also

increased. Many climate models show that the timing of precipitation will change. And thus,

most precipitation in the future will fall during a smaller number of storms that are heavier in

intensity. This is because the elevated temperatures will provide more energy in the atmosphere

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentpsc.html#ref

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentpsc.html#ref



for storm production. Whereas the intensity of precipitation will increase, the traditional rainfall

patterns will be disrupted and as a result, longer rainless periods will be experienced.

2.3 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security; a global perspective

The direct effect of climate change on agriculture will be through changes in factors such as

temperature, precipitation, length of growing season, and timing of extreme or critical threshold

events relative to crop development as well as through changes in atmospheric CO2

concentration. Indirect effects will be detrimental changes in diseases, pests and weeds.

Generally, middle to high latitudes may experience increase in productivity where as in the

tropics and subtropics rain fed agriculture yields are likely to decrease (IPCC, 1997).

Fig:2. 2: Range of percentage change in crop yield (IPCC, 1997)

Considering that agriculture in the tropics is vulnerable to frequent floods and severe droughts,

these two factors severely reduce agricultural production and could threaten food security of

many developing countries.

2.4 Projections of Future Climate Change

The future climate change largely depends on the existing and expected level of influencing

factors of climate change, e.g. the level of green house gas emissions. Economic and

technological development, policy intervention, industrial development, source of energy etc. are

the major driving factors for future green house gas emission. Based on these factors, different



scenarios have been developed to project future climate change. The estimated range of

temperature changes in SRES scenarios from 1900 to 2100 is +1.4 to +5.8 ºC. The major

changes expected in the future are as follows (IPCC, 2001a):

Land areas warm faster than oceans and mid and high latitudes have a greater warming.

Globally averaged mean water vapour, evaporation and precipitation will increase

Impact of climate change on crop water use and productivity

The intensity of rainfall events will increase.

Decrease in summer soil moisture in mid-continental areas due to the rise in temperature

and potential evapotranspiration.

There will be more frequent extreme high temperatures and less frequent extreme low

temperatures.

There will be enhanced inter-annual variability of northern summer monsoon

precipitation.

The Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice extent will decrease due to a warmer

climate.

2.5. Creating Climate Change Scenarios

General Circulation Models (GCMs), analogue warm periods and incremental scenarios are the

basis for creating climate change scenarios (Smith et al., 1997).

GCMs are mathematical representation of many atmosphere, ocean and land surface processes

based on the laws of physics. Such models consider a wide range of physical processes that

characterize the climate system and have been used to examine the impact of increased

greenhouse gas concentrations on global climate (Gates et al., 1990). Smith et al. (1997) stated

that GCMs estimate changes for dozens of meteorological variables in regional climate in grid

boxes that typically 3 or 4 degrees in latitude and as much as 10 degree in longitude.

GCMs provide the best information as compared to analogue and incremental scenarios (Smith

et al., 1997). However, one major disadvantage of GCMs is that they do not accurately represent

current climate at a regional scale. In many cases, seasonal patterns of precipitation are

misrepresented (Robock et al., 1993).



According to Smith and Humle (1998) as cited in http://www.cics.uvic.ca,They have put forward

a number of criteria which should be considered when selecting a GCM. They are,

Model vintage: This is related to the age of the GCM experiment. It is generally assumed that

recent GCMs are more desirable than older ones since they often will model recent knowledge

about climate system behavior and response.

Model resolution: The finer spatial resolution GCMs represents more climate process dynamics

than coarser resolution models.

Model validity: It is assumed that if a GCM is better able to simulate the current climate of a

particular region, then it will also yield a more accurate representation of the future regional

climate.

Representativeness of results: GCMs can display large differences in estimates of regional

climate change. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate

change. In this way a realistic range of possible impacts can be estimated.

2.6 Physical Impacts of Climate Change

2.6.1 Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)

This is the evapotranspiration from a hypothetical grass reference surface, not short of water;

with specific characteristics of uniform height, actively growing and completely shading the

ground. The grass reference crop is assumed with a crop height of 0.12 m, a fixed surface

resistance of 70 s/m and albedo of 0.23 (Doorenbos et al., 1984; Allen et al., 1998).

Fig:2. 3 Reference evapotranspiration (source: Allen et al.,1998)



2.6.2 Crop water requirement (ETM)

Crop water requirement is the depth of water needed to meet water loss through

evapotranspiration of a disease-free crop, growing in large fields under non-restriction soil

conditions including soil water and fertility and achieving full production potential under the

given growing environment. The values for crop evapotranspiration and crop water requirements

are identical for standard condition, crop water requirements refers to the amount of water that

needs to be supplied, while crop evapotranspiration refers to the amount of water that is lost

through evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998).

Direct measurement of Crop water requirements and reference crop evapotranspiration from

lysimeters is very difficult; it is time consuming and expensive. However, different estimation

methods are developed for ETo, which can be related to ETc

by multiplying it to Kc, the crop

coefficient. The crop coefficient mainly depends on the crop growth stages and type of crop

(Dinpashoh, 2006) see figure 2.6. The crop coefficient, Kc, is basically the ratio of the crop

water requirement (Etc) to the reference crop evapotranspiration ETo (Allen et al., 1998)

Fig: 2. 4: Crop water requirement

2.6.3 Crop coefficient (KC)

Crop Coefficients (Kc) are crop specific evapotranspiration values generated by research used

with reference evapotranspiration data to estimate the crop’s evapotranspiration requirement

(ETc). ETc is calculated by multiplying the crop coefficient (Kc) by the reference

evapotranspiration value (ETo).

ETCROP = KC×ETO



Fig: 2. 5: The crop coefficient

2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC)

Crop evapotranspiration under non-standard conditions is the evapotranspiration from crops

grown under management and environmental conditions that differ from the standard conditions.

When cultivating crops in fields, the real crop evapotranspiration may deviate from standard

conditions due to non-optimal conditions such as the presence of pests and diseases, soil salinity,

low soil fertility, water shortage or water logging. This may result in scanty plant growth, low

plant density and may reduce the evapotranspiration rate below ETm (Allen et al., 1998).

The ETc is calculated by using a water stress coefficient Ks and/or by adjusting Kc for all kinds

of other stresses and environmental constraints on crop evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998);

Fig: 2. 6: Actual evapotranspiration

Water stress in the plant can be quantified by the rate of actual (adjusted) evapotranspiration

(ETc) in relation to the rate of crop (maximum) evapotranspiration (ETm) under standard

condition. When crop water requirements are fully met from available water supply then ETc =

ETm; when water supply is insufficient, ETc < ETm. To evaluate the effect of plant water stress



on yield decrease through the quantification of relative evapotranspiration (ETc /ETm),

information on actual yield (Ya) in relation to maximum yield (Ym) is required. In addition, it is

necessary to derive the relationship between relative yield decrease and relative

evapotranspiration deficit given by the empirically-derived yield response factor Ky, to quantify

the effect of water stress on crop yield (Doorenbos et al., 1986). The yield response factor (Ky)

is a factor that describes the reduction in relative yield according to the reduction in ETc caused

by soil water shortage. These values are crop specific and may vary over the growing season

(Allen et al., 1998).

2.7 Methods used to estimate evapotranspiration

A large number of more or less empirical methods have been developed over the last 50 years by

numerous scientists and specialists worldwide to estimate evapotranspiration from different

climatic variables. The four following methods are selected based on the type of climatic data

available and on the accuracy required in determining the water needs. They are:

• Blaney-Criddle,

• Radiation,

• Penman and

• Pan Evaporation

1.1 2.8 Estimating Crop Water Use and Demand

There is a variety of programs dealing with computations of crop water requirements, mainly

based on a reference evapotranspiration. These programs are either single purpose, to estimate

crop water requirement (ETREF, CRIWAR, CRWTABLE) or embedded in scheduling programs

(CROPWAT, IRSIS). These programs also form the basis for various other irrigation scheduling

programs which are in use in various countries. FAO’s CROPWAT has the advantage of a wide

dissemination, it is extensively tested and widely accepted and also requires less climatic data

compared to other programmes (Lenselink et al., 1993).



2.8 Impacts on Crop Water Use and Productivity

Crop water requirements and water productivity in rain fed and irrigated agriculture are essential

indicators for assessing effect of climate change on crop production. Weather variability and

uneven distribution of rainfall strongly influence the crop yield. The impact of climate variation

on crop yield has recently gained prominence due to the significant trend towards global

warming and climate change (Lenselink et al., 1993).

Rising global temperature may benefit some crops in some places around the world. At the same

time, increase in temperature generates enormous disadvantages to other crops through increased

evapotranspiration and thermal damage (Yeo, 1999). Rising temperature and decreasing

precipitation may widen the gap between demand and supply of crop water, which could have a

direct impact on the agricultural production.

Warmer temperature increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001c)

which generally results in an increased potential evapotranspiration, i.e. evaporative demands.

However, the actual rate of evaporation is constrained by water availability. The amount of water

stored in the soil influences directly the rate of actual evaporation, ground water recharge and the

generation of runoff (IPCC, 2001c). The local effects of climate change on soil moisture will

vary not only with the degree of climate change but also with soil characteristics. The lower the

water holding capacity of the soil, the greater is the sensitivity to climate change (IPCC, 2001c).

Increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and changes in associated climatic

parameters will likely have a major influence on regional as well as international crop production

(Abraha et al., 2006). The Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES-A1FI

scenario, with its large increase in global temperatures, showed signs of the greatest decreases in

cereal production both regionally and globally, especially by the 2080s (Parry et al., 2004).



CHAPTER THREE

3.0 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Study Area

The study will carried out in the catchment area of River Sezibwa located in the districts of

Mukono and Kayunga in central Uganda.

The catchment covers a total geographical area of approximately 175 sq km. The river is gauged

at Sezibwa falls (0°35N, 32.87’E). And the elevation ranges from 1122 m to 1353 m (Nyenje and

Okke, 2008).

The catchment is characterized with temperatures ranging from 15.20C to 29.3

0C and a total

rainfall amount of 1215mm distributed into two seasons.

River Sezibwa collects its waters mainly from areas around Mabira forest and discharges into

Lake Kyoga wetland.

Fig: 3 1: A map of the approximate study area boundary of river sezibwa catchment



3.2 Acquisition and analysis of climatic and river flow data of Sezibwa basin

3.2.1 Data collection

Meteorological and hydrological data available at the Uganda Metrological Department

(Kampala) will be the major source of information in this study.

Table 3. 1: Type of data collected and the respective source

Data type Source

Climatic (Rainfall, Sun

shine hours, Temperature,

Relative humidity and Wind

speed )

Uganda Metrological Department (Kampala)

Maps Catchment

area

Uganda Survey Department (Ministry of

Lands)

Land Use National Forestry Authority, Uganda

survey department(Ministry of lands)

Soil type Uganda Survey Department (ministry of

lands)

Human, Crop and Livestock Uganda Bureau of Statistics, District Agricultural,

Veterinary officers and Ministry of Agriculture Animal

Husbandry and Fisheries And the districts of Mukono and

Kayunga

River flow data and water

consumption rates.

Directorate of Water Resources Management Entebbe



1.1.2 Data analysis

The climatic and river flow data obtained from several departments will be analyzed using

statistical methods such as the ranking method, moving average, regression and excel to establish

varying trends over the years

3.3 Identification and analysis of different soil types and land use within the catchment by

means soil sampling and maps

Soil and land use maps will be obtained from the department of survey and mapping, Ministry of

lands. The different soil types within the catchment will be identified and their properties

established using the FAO soil units.

3.3.1 Development of Maps

Catchment area map

Topographic maps will be obtained from Uganda Survey Entebbe, the catchment area map of

river Sezibwa will be marked out and the area will calculated using the following procedure:-

1. The area that drains in river Sezibwa will be marked out from the existing maps

following the heights of the contours marked on the map.

2. The total catchment area was calculated by adding up the squares and multiplying them

with the scale of the maps.

Land use map

The land use map for the catchment will be marked out from the existing land use map of the

entire region corresponding to the catchment area. The different types of land use will then be

estimated and their percentages determined.

Soil map

The soil map will be marked out from the existing soil map of the entire region corresponding to

the catchment area.



3.3.2 Soil sampling and analysis

Representative soil samples from the identified soil units will be collected and laboratory

analyses carried out to identify, texture (using the hydrometer method), and soil fertility (to

establish percentage of organic matter and cation exchange capacity).

3.4 Determination of relative crop evapotranspiration rates in various climate variability

and climate change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future

(2050) projection.

Existing climate change temperature and rainfall projections from literature will be used with the

help of CROPWAT software to determine relative crop evapotranspiration rates for the various

scenarios and projections.

Required CROPWAT data

Three main datasets will be used as inputs in the CROPWAT estimation: meteorology, crop and

soil. Details of these datasets are tabulated below.

Table3. 2: Required climatic parameters used as inputs to CROPWAT



3.5 Quantifying the impacts of climate change on crop yields in different climate change

scenarios and carrying out a water balance analysis to compare the present and

future demand with the available water.

3.5.1 Yield reduction

A deficiency in the full water requirement (water stress) leads to lower crop yields. The effect of

this deficiency on the yield is estimated by relating the relative yield decrease to the relative

evapotranspiration deficit through the yield response factor (Ky). A linear crop-water production

function, developed by FAO (1979), will be used to predict the reduction of crop yield when

crop stress is caused by shortage of soil water.

Where,

Ya Actual yield,

Ym Maximum/potential yield and

Ky Yield response factor

3.5.1 Water balance analysis

The equation below will be used to carry out a water balance analysis to compare the present and

future demand with the available water for each year.

Water surplus (Ws) = Q – IR – Ln – Dn – In

Q = River discharge (m3/year).

IR = Irrigation water requirement (m3/year).

Ln = Livestock water requirement (m3/year).

Dn = Domestic water requirement (m3/year).

In = Industrial water requirement (m3/year).



3.6 Quantifying other types (domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand within the

catchment for the present and future (2050) projection

3.6.1 Livestock Water Requirements

The livestock water demand will be calculated by following the procedure:-

1. The total number of livestock within the catchment will be obtained from the district

veterinary officers and the ministry of agriculture animal husbandry and fisheries.

2. The total daily water consumption rates for the livestock will be obtained from the

directorate of water development.

3. The present water consumption rates will be obtained by multiplying the number of

livestock within the catchment and the water consumption rates

4. The future livestock water requirement for the next fifty years will then be obtained by

multiplying the present water demand with the annual animal growth rate ( as obtained

from the ministry of agriculture) using the equation below

Ln = Li (1+r/100) n

(DWD, 2000)

Where;

Ln is the future livestock water requirement in the nth

year.

Li is the present livestock water requirement.

r is the annual animal growth rate



3.6.2 Domestic Water Requirements

The domestic water demand will be calculated by following the procedure stated below:-

a. The human population totals will be obtained from the Uganda national bureau of

statistics.

b. The total daily water consumption rates will be obtained from the directorate of

water development.

c. The present water consumption rates will be obtained by multiplying the total

population within the catchment and the water consumption rates

d. The future domestic water requirement for the next fifty years will then be

obtained by multiplying the present water demand with the annual animal growth

rate ( as obtained from the ministry of agriculture) using the equation below

Pn = Pi(1+r/100) n

(DWD, 2000)

Where;

Pn is the future population in the nth

year.

Pi is the present population.

r is the annual population growth rate.




3.6.3 Industrial Water Requirements

The industrial water demand will be calculated by following the procedure stated below:-

1) The total number of industries within the catchment will be obtained from the district

planning officers.

2) The water consumption rate for the industries will be obtained from the directorate of

water development.

3) The present industrial water requirement will be obtained by multiplying the water

consumption rates and the total number of industries.

4) The future industrial water requirement for the next fifty years was obtained by

multiplying the present water demand with the industrial growth rate using the equation

below

In = Ii (1+r/100) n

(DWD, 2000)

Where;

In is the future industrial water requirement in the nth

year.

Ii is the present industrial water requirement.




PROPOSED PROJECT TIMELINE

ITEM ACTIVITY OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY

1 PROPOSAL WRITING

2 PROPOSAL PRESENTATION

3 DATA COLLECTION

4 LAB EXPERIMENTS

5 DATA ANALYSIS

6 FINAL PRESENTATION

7 FINALREPORT WRITING

PROPOSED PROJECT BUDGET



Items Unit cost Quantity Total cost (UGX)

1 Proposal writing

i. Printing

ii. Binding

1 15,000

2 Data collection (soil ,river flow, and

climatic data)

i. Transport for field work ( soil

sampling, data collection

from districts)

ii. Transport for data collection

( DWD, UBOS, Met Dep’t,

Survey Dep’t)

iii. Communication (air time)

iv. Purchase of maps

200,000

3 Soil analysis tests

i. Texture ( soil science lab)

ii. Fertility ( soil science lab)

30,000

4 GIS Maps

i. Catchment, Soil and Land

use map

150,000 1 150,000

5 Final report

i. Printing

ii. Binding

10,000 3 30,000

6 Miscellaneous 30,000

Grand Total 455000



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Documents

Sample of a Project Proposal