STRATEGIC THINKINGIMBA Managerial Economics

Jack Wu

Nov. 16: Coca-Cola raised price 7% Nov. 22: Pepsi raised price 6.9% “Coke and Pepsi will move now

from price-based competition to marketing-based competition”,

Andrew Conway, Morgan Stanley

COKE VS. PEPSI, 1999

COMPETITIVE DILEMMA

Pepsi

Raise price Discount

Raise price

C: 3, P: 3

C: 0, P: 5

Coke Discount C: 5,

P: 0 C: 1, P: 1

What should Coke do?

STRATEGIC SITUATIONS

parties actively consider the interactions with one another in making decisions

game theory -- set of ideas and principles to guide strategic thinking simultaneous actions: strategic form sequential actions: extensive form

DOMINATED STRATEGY

generates worse consequences than another strategy, regardless of the choices of the other parties

never use dominated strategy

NASH EQUILIBRIUM

Given that the other players choose their Nash equilibrium strategies, each party prefers its own Nash equilibrium strategy

• No one is willing to deviate unilaterally from a Nash equilibrium

SOLVING FOR NASH EQUILIBRIUM

eliminate dominated strategies, then check remaining cells

“arrow” technique

COKE AND PEPSI GAME

Nash equilibrium: for both parties, “raise price” is dominated by “discount”.

but discounting is bad for both -- if only they could agree somehow to raise price.

Coke and Pepsi stuck in this situation for four years until November 1999.

RADIO FORMATS

Merkur

Lite AC no change

Jupiter

Hot AC J: 60,

M: 40

J: 60,

M: 40

no change J: 70,

M: 30

J: 50,

M: 50

RADIO FORMATS

For Merkur, “Lite AC” is dominated by “no change”; so consider only “no change”,

assuming Merkur chooses “no change”, Jupiter should choose “Hot AC”.

Repeat using “arrow technique”.

OUT OF NASH EQUILIBRIUM

What if another player doesn’t play Nash equilibrium strategy? Nash equilibrium strategy may not be best still don’t use dominated strategy

No Nash equilibrium in pure strategies

Competitor.com

NBA NHL

NBA W: 4, C: 3

W: 3, C: 4

We.com NHL W: 3,

C: 4 W: 4, C: 3

WHERE TO ADVERTISE?

RANDOMIZED STRATEGIES

choose among pure strategies according to probabilities

must be unpredictable Example: retail market random discount Example: where to advertise _ We.com: ½ NBA and ½ NHL _ Competitor.com: ½ NBA and ½ NHL

EVENING NEWS:

TVB

7:30pm 8:0pm

7:30pm A: 1, B: 1

A: 3, B: 4

ATV 8:0pm A: 4, B: 3

A: 2.5, B: 2.5

COORDINATION AND COMPETITION Prime time for news is 8:0pm; second best is

7:30pm; since audience is limited, get maximum

viewership if two channels schedule at different times.

Question: which station gets 8:0pm? Situation has elements of

coordination -- avoiding same time slot competition -- getting the 8:0pm slot

ZERO/POSITIVE SUM

zero-sum games: pure competition -- one party better off only if other is worse off

positive-sum games: coordination -- both can be better off or both worse off

co-opetition: competition and coordination

ADOPTING DATABASE SOFTWARE

Sol

IBM Oracle

Venus

IBM V: 1.5,

S: 1.5

V: 1,

S: 1

Oracle V: 1,

S: 1

V: 1.5,

S: 1.5

FOCAL POINT

Nash equilibrium multiple Nash equilibria

SEQUENCING

Game in extensive form – sequence of moves:

nodesbranchesoutcomes

EXTENSIVE FORM: EQUILIBRIUM

backward induction final nodes intermediate nodes initial node

TVB

ATV

ATV

4, 3

2.5, 2.5

1, 1

3, 4

8:00

7:30

7:30

8:00

7:30

8:00

TVB, ATV

TV NEWS: SEQUENTIAL MOVES

STRATEGIC MOVE

Action to influence beliefs or actions of other parties in a favorable way

• credibility– first mover advantage– second mover advantage

EXAMPLES Examples: Evening TV news -- both stations want to move first: which one can?

Use strategic move, eg, contracts with advertisers to deliver news at 8pm.

Famous Chinese general: after crossing a river, burnt his ships -- strategic move to force soldiers to fight harder.

Issue: Is the move credible? Will it convince the other players?

Advantage doesn’t always go to first mover; In war, better to see opponent’s move, and then take action, eg is

enemy moving south or north? new product category -- let competitor test the market and

educate the customers

consumer

Litho

LithoMake prints

Do not

Buy

Do not

Make more prints

Do not

(1) serial number (2) destroying the plate(3) other solution?

LITHOGRAPHER

CONDITIONAL STRATEGIC MOVES

threats promises

MORGAN STANLEY:“SHAREHOLDER RIGHTS PLAN”

If any party acquires 15% or more of company’s shares, other shareholders get right to buy additional shares at 50% discount.

Impact on hostile bidder?

SHAREHOLDER RIGHTS PLAN This shareholder rights plan is a threat to

potential bidders: most hostile bidders begin with small stake; with shareholder rights plan, if bidder

acquires more than 15%, then rights triggered, and bidder will be diluted.

Nickname: poison pill. Actually works against shareholder rights --

by entrenching existing management.

Sharon

Hilda

acquires 100,000shares

doesn’t bid

does not

activates rights

Hilda loses on initial stake + cost of takeover rises

POISON PILL

Union

Employer

reject union demand

accept

do not

strike Lose current wageand possibly gain infuture wage

Maintain current wage

Why are strikes rare inAmerican professional football?

STRIKE