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53:135:502:90 Quantitative Skills
Fall 2015 (Online Course)
RUTGERS UNIVERSITY
School of Business
MADJID TAVANA, PH.D. Professor and Distinguished Chair of Business Analytics
Chairman of the Business Systems and Analytics Department
La Salle University ● Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19141 ● U.S.A.
Editor-in-Chief, Decision Analytics
Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences
Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Management and Decision Making
Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences
Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems
Phone: (215) 951-1129 ● Fax: (267) 295-2854 ● Skype: madjidtavana
Email: [email protected] ● Web: http://tavana.us
2
1. COURSE DESCRIPTION:
This course provides mathematical and statistical modeling foundation that will help students
understand and experience decision making and problem solving in different functional areas
such as finance, accounting, marketing and management. The focus is on the manager's
responsibilities for problem solving and decision making, and those areas in which business
analytics can be used to gain the insight needed to support selection of decision alternatives. The
course focuses on data, information, and knowledge by utilizing decision support and expert
systems in support of the decision making and problem solving processes. The course also
includes the use of various business analytics and modeling software programs.
2. COURSE OBJECTIVES:
The objective of this course is to familiarize students with business analytics methods, techniques
and software applications for use in management decision making to improve business. After
completing this course, students should have a good basic understanding of fundamental business
analytics and modeling as applied to business with particular focus on descriptive, predictive and
prescriptive analytics.
3. INSTRUCTOR:
Madjid Tavana is Professor and Distinguished Chair of Business Analytics at La Salle
University, where he serves as Chairman of the Business Systems and Analytics Department. He
is Distinguished Research Fellow at Kennedy Space Center, Johnson Space Center, Naval
Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center, and Air Force Research Laboratory. He was
recently honored with the prestigious Space Act Award by NASA. He holds a MBA, PMIS, and
PhD in Management Information Systems and received his Post-Doctoral Diploma in Strategic
Information Systems from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the
Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analytics, International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences,
International Journal of Management and Decision Making, International Journal of Knowledge
Engineering and Data Mining, International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences, and
International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems. He has published 10 books and over 200
research papers in scholarly academic journals.
4. COURSE TOPICS:
Decision Support Systems and Spreadsheets
Lecture Note: Decision Support Systems and EXCEL (DS-EXL-H)
Video: http://tavana.us/XLS/XLS.mp4
Cases:
American Appliances
The Heinrich Company
Francois Stealth
3
Titanic Cruise Company
Planters Nut Company
Built-4-U
Golden Palace Casino
Impulse Shopping Network
Decision Support Systems and Natural Language Programming (Visit D-code.us)
Lecture Note: Natural Language Programming: D-code (DS-COL-H)
Lecture Note: Building DSS with D-code (DS-COP-H)
Video: http://tavana.us/NLP/NLP.mp4
Cases:
Keystone Corporation
The Prolog Corporation
Starship Technologies
Dr. Warped
Jungle Jim
Decision Support Systems and Influence Diagramming (Visit D-cide.us)
Lecture Note: Influence Diagramming and D-cide (DS-DCD-H)
Video: http://tavana.us/MOD/MOD.mp4
Cases:
The Procom Corporation
Thrills R Us
Parrot Club
Southwest Airline
Pick Your Own
Jungle Jim
Knowledge-Based Systems (Visit B-wise.us)
Lecture Note: Knowledge Engineering with B-wise (DS-BWL-H)
Lecture Note: Building Expert Systems with B-wise (DS-BWP-H)
Video: http://tavana.us/KBS/KBS.mp4
Check Cashing Problem
College Hill Tavern
Police Academy
Corleone Family
La Boutique
Gateway Computers
4
5. COURSE SCHEDULE:
Week of January 19
Topic: Prescriptive Modeling with Excel
Familiarize yourself with Prescriptive Modeling with Excel
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-EXL-H.pdf
Watch the following Video:
http://tavana.us/XLS/XLS.mp4
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Run Microsoft Excel (Install SOLVER add-in)
PRACTICE:
American Appliances
Assignment: None
Case Study: None
Week of January 25
Topic: Prescriptive Modeling with Excel
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-EXL-H.pdf
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. The Heinrich Company
2. Francois Stealth
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (Excel files) through the
following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
Week of February 1
Topic: Prescriptive Modeling with Excel
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-EXL-H.pdf
5
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. Titanic Cruise company
2. Planters nut Company
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (Excel files) through the
following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
Video Discussion:
The best stats you've ever seen - Hans Rosling
You've never seen data presented like this. With the drama and urgency of a sportscaster, statistics guru
Hans Rosling debunks myths about the so-called “developing world.”
Week of February 8
Topic: Prescriptive Modeling with Excel
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-EXL-H.pdf
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. Built-4-U
2. Golden Palace Casino
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (Excel files) through the
following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
Video Discussion:
Hans Rosling's 200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes - The Joy of Stats - BBC Four
Hans Rosling's famous lectures combine enormous quantities of public data with a sport's commentator's
style to reveal the story of the world's past, present and future development. Now he explores stats in a
way he has never done before - using augmented reality animation. In this spectacular section of 'The Joy
of Stats' he tells the story of the world in 200 countries over 200 years using 120,000 numbers - in just
four minutes. Plotting life expectancy against income for every country since 1810, Hans shows how the
world we live in is radically different from the world most of us imagine.
6
Week of February 15
Topic: Prescriptive Modeling with Excel
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-EXL-H.pdf
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. Impulse Shopping Network
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (Excel files) through the
following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
Video Discussion:
The beauty of data visualization - David McCandless
David McCandless turns complex data sets, like worldwide military spending, media buzz, and Facebook
status updates, into beautiful, simple diagrams that tease out unseen patterns and connections. Good
design, he suggests, is the best way to navigate information glut -- and it may just change the way we see
the world.
Week of February 22
Topic: Predictive Modeling with Natural Language Programming
Familiarize yourself with Predictive Modeling and Natural Language Programming with D-code
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshows:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-COL-H.pdf
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-COP-H.pdf
Watch the following Video:
http://tavana.us/NLP/NLP.mp4
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Run D-code Program (Windows Operating system) by visiting http://d-code.us/ or at:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/D-code.exe
PRACTICE:
1. Keystone Corporation
2. The Prolog Corporation
Assignment: None
Case Study:
7
Excel Case Report
Case reports are problems created by you and solved by you. They could be interesting real-life or
hypothetical problems. All case reports are evaluated according to the following five criteria (see sample
cases):
Originality/creativity: How creative you are and how interesting your problem is?
Presentation: How clean and professional looking your PowerPoint slideshow is?
Problem description: How well you have descried your problem and how much detail is provided?
Complexity: How complex your problem is? Is it a straight-forward problem or difficult problem to
solve?
Solution: Is your solutions correct and how well you are presenting your solution?
For the Excel Case Report, you must submit your PowerPoint Slide Show and Excel file through:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
All case reports are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Make sure to fill out this form
completely. Use the email address you want me to use to send you your grade.
Excel Sample Case Report (PowerPoint)
Excel Sample XLS File
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Video Discussion:
How algorithms shape our world - Kevin Slavin
Kevin Slavin argues that we're living in a world designed for -- and increasingly controlled by --
algorithms. In this riveting talk from TEDGlobal, he shows how these complex computer programs
determine espionage tactics, stock prices, movie scripts, and architecture. Slavin also warns that we are
writing code we can't understand with implications we can't control.
Week of February 29
Topic: Predictive Modeling and Natural Language Programming with D-code
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshows:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-COL-H.pdf
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-COP-H.pdf
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. Starship Technologies
2. Dr. Warped
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (D-code (NLP file))
through the following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
8
Week of March 7
Topic: Predictive Modeling with Influence Diagramming
Familiarize yourself with Predictive Modeling and Influence Diagramming with D-cide
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-DCD-H.pdf
Watch the following Video:
http://tavana.us/MOD/MOD.mp4
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Run D-cide Program (Windows Operating system) by visiting http://d-cide.us/ or at:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/D-cide.exe
PRACTICE:
1. The Procom Corporation
2. Thrills R Us
Assignment: None
Case Study:
D-code Case Report
Case reports are problems created by you and solved by you. They could be interesting real-life or
hypothetical problems. All case reports are evaluated according to the following five criteria (see sample
cases):
Originality/creativity: How creative you are and how interesting your problem is?
Presentation: How clean and professional looking your PowerPoint slideshow is?
Problem description: How well you have descried your problem and how much detail is provided?
Complexity: How complex your problem is? Is it a straight-forward problem or difficult problem to
solve?
Solution: Is your solutions correct and how well you are presenting your solution?
For the D-code Case Report, you must submit your PowerPoint Slide Show and D-code (NLP) file
through:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
All case reports are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Make sure to fill out this form
completely. Use the email address you want me to use to send you your grade.
D-code Sample Case Report (PowerPoint)
D-code Sample NLP File
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Video Discussion:
Hans Rosling and Ola Rosling: How not to be ignorant about the world
How much do you know about the world? Hans Rosling, with his famous charts of global population,
health and income data (and an extra-extra-long pointer), demonstrates that you have a high statistical
chance of being quite wrong about what you think you know. Play along with his audience quiz — then,
from Hans’ son Ola, learn 4 ways to quickly get less ignorant.
9
Week of March 14
Week of March 21
Topic: Predictive Modeling and Influence Diagramming
Familiarize yourself with Predictive Modeling and Influence Diagramming with D-cide
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-DCD-H.pdf
Watch the following Video:
http://tavana.us/MOD/MOD.mp4
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Run D-cide Program (Windows Operating system) by visiting http://d-cide.us/ or at:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/D-cide.exe
PRACTICE:
1. The Procom Corporation
2. Thrills R Us
Assignment: None
Case Study: None
Video Discussion:
Lies, damned lies and statistics
In a brilliantly tongue-in-cheek analysis, Sebastian Wernicke turns the tools of statistical analysis on
TEDTalks, to come up with a metric for creating "the optimum TEDTalk" based on user ratings. How do
you rate it?
Week of March 28
Topic: Predictive Modeling and Influence Diagramming with D-cide
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshow:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-DCD-H.pdf
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. Parrot Club
2. Southwest Airline
3. Pick Your Own
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
10
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (D-cide (MOD file))
through the following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
Video Discussion:
MythBusters' Adam Savage on Problem Solving: How I Do It
Best known as co-host of Discovery Channel's MythBusters, Adam Savage also wears hats as an artist,
actor, special effects wizard and industrial designer. In this presentation at Maker Faire Bay Area 2010,
he outlines his strategies for tackling complex problems.
Week of April 4
Topic: Knowledge Engineering
Familiarize yourself with Knowledge Engineering with B-wise
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshows:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-BWL-H.pdf
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-BWP-H.pdf
Watch the following Video:
http://tavana.us/KBS/KBS.mp4
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Run B-wise Program (Windows Operating system) by visiting http://b-wise.us/ or at:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/B-wise.exe
PRACTICE:
1. Check Cashing Problem
2. College Hill Tavern
Assignment: None
Case Study:
D-cide Case Report
Case reports are problems created by you and solved by you. They could be interesting real-life or
hypothetical problems. All case reports are evaluated according to the following five criteria (see sample
cases):
Originality/creativity: How creative you are and how interesting your problem is?
Presentation: How clean and professional looking your PowerPoint slideshow is?
Problem description: How well you have descried your problem and how much detail is provided?
Complexity: How complex your problem is? Is it a straight-forward problem or difficult problem to
solve?
Solution: Is your solutions correct and how well you are presenting your solution?
For the D-cide Case Report, you must submit your PowerPoint Slide Show and D-cide (MOD) file
through:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
11
All case reports are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Make sure to fill out this form
completely. Use the email address you want me to use to send you your grade.
D-cide Sample Case Report (PowerPoint)
D-cide Sample MOD File
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
Week of April 11
Topic: Knowledge Engineering with B-wise
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshows:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-BWL-H.pdf
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-BWP-H.pdf
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. Police Academy
2. Corleone Family
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (B-wise (KBS file))
through the following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
Video Discussion:
Kenneth Cukier: Big data is better data
Self-driving cars were just the start. What's the future of big data-driven technology and design? In a
thrilling science talk, Kenneth Cukier looks at what's next for machine learning - and human knowledge.
Week of April 18
Topic: Knowledge Engineering with B-wise
Assignment:
Use the following PowerPoint Slideshows:
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-BWL-H.pdf
http://tavana.us/downloads/programs/DS-BWP-H.pdf
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
1. La Boutique
2. Gateway Computers
All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Note that assignments are NOT
graded but if you do not submit them or submit them late, you will be penalized (see the professionalism
12
section of the course syllabus for more details). Please submit your assignment (B-wise (KBS file))
through the following link:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
Make sure to fill out this form completely. Use the email address you want me to send you the correct
solution. Once you receive the link for the correct solution, compare your solution and the correct one to
see what you have done wrong.
Case Study: None
Week of April 25
Topic: Knowledge Engineering with B-wise
Assignment: None
Case Study:
B-wise Case Report
Case reports are problems created by you and solved by you. They could be interesting real-life or
hypothetical problems. All case reports are evaluated according to the following five criteria (see sample
cases):
Originality/creativity: How creative you are and how interesting your problem is?
Presentation: How clean and professional looking your PowerPoint slideshow is?
Problem description: How well you have descried your problem and how much detail is provided?
Complexity: How complex your problem is? Is it a straight-forward problem or difficult problem to
solve?
Solution: Is your solutions correct and how well you are presenting your solution?
For the B-wise Case Report, you must submit your PowerPoint Slide Show and B-wise (KBS) file
through:
http://www.tavana.us/forms/assignment/assignment.php
All case reports are due by 11:59 PM on Sundays in a given week. Make sure to fill out this form
completely. Use the email address you want me to use to send you your grade.
B-wise Sample Case Report (PowerPoint)
B-wise Sample KBS File
username: tavana
password: spacewalk
6. COURSE REQUIREMENTS:
Excel Case Analysis (25% of Final Grade):
A PowerPoint Presentation with Problem Description, Excel Spreadsheet, Solver
Formulation, and Optimal Solution (see sample case for more details).
SAMPLE EXCEL CASE & EXCEL FILE.
13
D-code Case Analysis (25% of Final Grade):
A PowerPoint Presentation with Problem Description, Influence Diagram, Planners Lab
Model, and Spreadsheet Solution (see sample case for more details).
SAMPLE D-CODE CASE & D-code FILE.
D-cide Case Analysis (25% of Final Grade):
A PowerPoint Presentation with Problem Description, Influence Diagram Screenshot,
and Spreadsheet Solution (see sample case for more details).
SAMPLE D-cide CASE & D-cide FILE.
B-wise Case Analysis (25% of Final Grade):
A PowerPoint Presentation with Problem Description, A listing of Factors and Choices,
and Decision Tree Screenshot (see sample case for more details).
SAMPLE B-wise CASE & B-wise FILE.
Professionalism: The majority of this class is engaged in full time employment or is seeking to
enhance their employment opportunities. I would like to help you enhance your career by asking
you to behave as you would in a professional setting. To encourage development of professional
habits, the following reductions will be applied to the final grade: each late Assignment (2%),
each missing assignment (4%), each late case report (2%), and sporadic participation in video
discussions (2%).
7. GRADING POLICY:
7.1 Assignments
All assignments and cases should be submitted through the following online submission system:
14
Assignments are not graded but there is a penalty associated with the late or missing assignments
(see professionalism section of the course syllabus for more details).
7.2. Case Reports
Case reports are problems created by you and solved by you. They could be interesting real-life
or hypothetical problems. All case reports are evaluated according to the following five criteria
(see sample cases):
Originality/creativity: How creative you are and how interesting your problem is?
Presentation: How clean and professional looking your PowerPoint slideshow is?
Problem description: How well you have descried your problem and how much detail is
provided?
Complexity: How complex your problem is? Is it a straight-forward problem or difficult
problem to solve?
Solution: Is your solutions correct and how well you are presenting your solution?
Grading Criteria 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Originality/Creativity
Presentation
Problem Description
Complexity
Solution
Overall score
7.2. Grading Scale
The student earns points which will be calculated on a 100 point scale. There is no extra credit.
The following are the cutoff points for each grade:
A Indicates the demonstration of an Excellent level of competency 90.0-100
B+ Indicates the demonstration of a very good level of competence 86.0-89.9
B Indicates the demonstration of a good level of competency 80.0-85.9
C+ Indicates the demonstration of an average level of competency 76.0-79.9
C Indicates the demonstration of a less than average level of competency 70.0-75.9
F Indicates failure to demonstrate a satisfactory level of competency 00.0-69.9