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RUSSIAN FAR EAST TEAM CONTRIBUTION TO AES PROJECT. Asian Energy Security (AES) Project Asian Energy Security Workshop 2006 6 to 7 November, 2006, Beijing, China RFE Team Members: Ruslan Gulidov, Victor Kalashnikov, Alexander Ognev - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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RUSSIAN FAR EAST TEAM RUSSIAN FAR EAST TEAM CONTRIBUTION TO AES CONTRIBUTION TO AES
PROJECTPROJECTAsian Energy Security (AES) Project
Asian Energy Security Workshop Asian Energy Security Workshop 20062006
6 to 7 November, 2006, Beijing, ChinaRFE Team Members:
Ruslan Gulidov, Victor Kalashnikov,Alexander Ognev
[Presented for Team by David Von Hippel, Nautilus Institute]
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RFE AES CONTRIBUTION: PROJECT TEAM AND ROLES
Dr. Victor Kalashnikov: Overall supervisor of Russian team Develops the strategic framework of the LEAP modeling
activities and follow-up analysis of the results Defines basic qualitative and quantitative assumptions of
the scenarios implemented Resolves various theoretical problems
Dr. Alexander Ognev: Advisor for all general and specific issues related to the RFE electric power industry
Mr. Ruslan Gulidov: Modeler Collects and processes data, inputs to LEAP model Creates and examines LEAP scenarios for RFE energy
sector based on advice from other members
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RFE AES CONTRIBUTION: RFE ENERGY SECTOR OVERVIEW
RFE Energy Sector Generating, transmission & distribution companies, marketing
and management bodies of the electric power industry Coal-mining industry (in all territories of the RFE) Oil and gas industries (Yakutia, Sakhalin, Kamchatka, Chukotka) Refining industry (mostly in Khabarovskiy Krai, but also in
Sakhalin and Yakutia) Characterized by huge distances, low level of development,
non-uniform and dispersed character of the development of RFE's economy
20+ "energy districts" independent in power supply, energy sectors based on local resources. With some imports from elsewhere in RFE
Favorable conditions for concentration of energy production and centralization of energy transportation and distribution Power grid: Integrated Power System of the East (OES Vostoka).
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RFE AES WORK:RFE ENERGY SITUATION
Energy production in the Russian Far East in Recent Years
Index2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Electricity production, bill kWh
38.8 39.0 38.6 38.9 40.1
Crude oil extraction, mill tons
3.8 4.2 3.6 3.6 4.0
Natural gas extraction, BCM
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6
Coal mining, mill tons 28.3 28.2 30.1 30.7 31.8
Oil Refining, mill tons 6.3 6.7 7.4 9.1 8.8
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RFE AES WORK:RFE ENERGY SITUATION
Energy industry accounts for more than 10% of regional GDP, 28% of industrial output, employs 4% of economically active population
Investments in modernization and development of energy sector in 2003-2004 > 50% of total capital investments in region’s economy Implementation of large-scale, capital-intensive
projects -- “Sakhalin-1”, “Sakhalin-2”, Bureiskaya hydropower power plant
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L E G E N D
MONGOLIA
ЯПОНИЯ
CHINA
MAJOR CENTRES OF POWER GENERATION Installed generating capacity, MW
Fuel and energy types Coal Fuel Oil Natural gas
Nuclear Geothermal Hydro
Yuzhno-Primorsky centre
Viluyskiy "energy district"
Petropavlovskiy "energy district"
Bureyskaya HPP
under construction) (
1
2 3
Primorskaya TPP
Mayskaya TPP
Komsomolsky centre Zeyskaya HPP
Nerungrinskaya TPP
Sakhalinskaya TPP
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Khabarovsk
Kharanorskaya TPP Chita
Gusinoozerskaya TPP
Nikolaevsk-on-Amur
Okha
Yakutsk
Magadan
Kolymskaya HPP
Arkagalinskaya
TPP
Bilibino
Anadir'
50-100
200-500
500-1000
More than 1000
BACKBONE TRANSMISSION LINES
500 кV 220 кV
ZONES AND REGIONS OF CENTRALIZED POWER SUPPLY
OES Sibiri OES Vostoka Autonomous energy regions
ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES OUTSIDE THE REGION Operating Planned for construction
Numbered: 1 – Krasnokamensk CHP, 2 - Blagoveschenskaya CHP, 3 - Raychikhinskaya TPP
Bratsk
Ulan-Ude
Figure 9-1: Energy Sector Pattern in the Russian Far East
100-200
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RFE AES WORK:RFE ENERGY SITUATION
RFE'2002 Primary Energy Production29.7 mln tce
Nuclear 0.2%
Natural Gas 13.8%
Coal 59.7%
Renewables 8.6%
Crude Oil 17.7%
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RFE AES WORK:RFE ENERGY SITUATION
RFE'2002 Primary Energy Consumption37.6 mln tce
Oil&Oil Products
38.0%
Nuclear0.2%
Hydropower3.2%
Other Renewables
3.6%
Coal 44.1%
Natural Gas10.9%
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RFE ENERGY SITUATION, RECENT TRENDS
Growing signs of stabilization in current energy supplies in RFE since 2002, due to solution of financial problems related to payments for energy products and services
2003-2004, ratio of RFE and Russian average tariffs stabilized at 1.6 for electricity, 1.8 for heating Regional energy companies operated at a profit in 2004 Cross-subsidies between consumer groups, inter-regional
subsidies in wholesale electricity sales still exist Coal industry stabilizing gradually with closing of
unprofitable mines; share of coal in underground mines in RFE in 2004 fell to 10% from 26.1 % in 1991
Increasing demand in energy industries for equipment renovation of outdated and obsolete equipment
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RFE ENERGY SITUATION, RECENT TRENDS
Bureiskaya HPP (designed capacity of 2000 MW, average generation 7.1 TWh/yr) unit additions to total of 1005 MW To transfer power from Bureiskaya HPP, construction of high
voltage transmission lines continues Increasing electric load on TPP in “OES Vostoka” grid,
increased Bureiskaya HPP output by 2007 will decrease average electricity prices
Mergers, takeovers and processes of vertical integration of assets, restructuring of RFE coal and power industries
2005-2007--Unified holding company created for RFE electricity sector (existing and new) controlled (over 52%) by Federal government
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RFE ENERGY SITUATION, RECENT TRENDS
Phase out of coal facilities in some territories of RFE and Transbaikalia as Sakhalin gas comes to market
Northern/NE territories of RFE self-sufficient in coal supply, import petroleum as refined products from Khabarovsk area
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RFE ENERGY SITUATION, RECENT TRENDS
Highly likely that major projects in the energy sector will shift the trade balance of primary energy towards export supplies to international and interregional markets of crude oil, LNG and coking coal, and electricity to “isolated districts” in Northeast China.
Despite overall good prospects for supply in RFE, there are continuing problems of “small” communal utilities (electricity and heat supply) Neglect and malfunctioning of production facilities
and engineering infrastructure, unresolved financial problems
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RFE ENERGY SITUATION, RECENT TRENDS
Stationary “small” power industry varies both technologically and in respect to its manageability. For communal heat supply alone in the RFE there are more than 5300 municipal heating plants, which generate about 25 million gigacalories. Positive examples of vertical integration of communal energy
utilities, form basis for structural reforms in communal services.
Strategic position of RFE in North-East Asia energy sector is being restructured, strengthened Construction/investment activities for implementing the
“Sakhalin-1” and “Sakhalin-2” projects mean doubling primary energy production in RFE by 2008 net energy exporter, supplying crude oil, LNG to energy markets of Northeast Asia
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RFE ENERGY SITUATION, RECENT TRENDS
End 2004 RF Government approved a framework project for construction of Taishet – Scovorodino – Perevoznaya Bay Oil Pipeline (the East Siberia – Pacific Ocean Project – ESPO project) first section is to be completed by second half of 2008, with throughput of 30 Mte crude oil
Oil terminal in Perevoznaya Bay is to be finished by second half of 2008, with similar throughput
2005, RF Government of Russia Federation re-orienting Kovyktinskoye gas project to meet domestic gas needs in W. RF, thus excluding it from NEA market, probably meaning a focus on the triangle "Sakhalin shelf – Northeast China – the Korean Peninsula“ for exports
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RFE ENERGY SITUATION, RECENT TRENDS
2004 and 2005 Exxon Neftegas (operator of the Sakhalin-1 project) in commercial negotiations on pipeline gas supply to Northeast China via Khabarovsk Krai, 8-10 BCM/year
Gazprom negotiating with operator of the Sakhalin-1 project to obtain 25% share, which may speed development of international connections
Completion of Bureiskaya HPP construction, power availability in “OES Vostoka” created preconditions for export-oriented power industry, but so far only strong activities in near-border power trade (negotiations on 600 MW power lines from Blagoveschensk to Kheikhe)
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POSSIBLE COOPERATIVE INITIATIVES: RFE AND NEA
"Amur Arc" Project: Planned specialized infrastructure for fuel and energy
resources transit, goods transit Oil and gas pipelines High-voltage power lines Trans-Siberian Railway Arc-like energy corridor on the route "Eastern Siberia –
Skovorodino – Blagoveshchensk – Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk-on-Amur – south of Primorskiy Krai“
Economic concept of industrial-service development of energy corridor
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POSSIBLE COOPERATIVE INITIATIVES: RFE AND NEA
"Amur Arc" Project: Oil-and-gas projects of the Sakhalin shelf—Sakhalin 1
and 2, onshore and offshore, extraction/processing Oil pipeline “Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean” (ESPO) Integrated system of gas production and transportation
in Eastern Siberia and the Far East Prospects for electricity cooperation with China: the
“Small China” project--Export electricity into “loading islands” – near-border areas/cities of NE China
Prospects for electricity cooperation with China: the “Big China” project—25-30 TWh/yr into integrated energy systems of Northeastern and Eastern Chinese provinces
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POSSIBLE COOPERATIVE INITIATIVES: RFE AND NEA
"Amur Arc" Project: Energy bridge "Far East – Korean Peninsula Project induces important external benefits:
Improved investment climate in region New technological opportunities for development of
joint enterprises for hydrocarbons processing Energy-intensive enterprises based on new efficient
hydroelectric power plants, gas- and coal-fired power plants
In view of the large scales, investments required, complex effects, planning, implementation, the power supply and pipeline sections of Project require support and coordination of Russian Government
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
Information Sources: Current Accounts State Statistics in Russian Far East for Petroleum,
electricity product supply and balances Customs data on imports and exports Statistics on social and economic indicators Russia’s regional fuel and energy complexes Provincial government data sources Data from private companies; such as "Unified Power
Grid of Russia“ Information from experts in Energy Departments of
territorial administrations of subregions of RFE Estimates of research fellows of Institutes in region
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
Information Sources: Paths/Scenarios Official materials from government authorities, private
companies Economic and social development projections Demographic forecasts Plans for energy and other infrastructure
Reports and papers on futures of energy industries of RFE (Russian and International publications)
Coal, gas, petroleum extraction industries Hydroelectric development
Other materials: RF-wide projections/futures documents, regional experts, company publications
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
Data Gaps and ChallengesLittle demand data except for electricity—no
energy balance since 1990, errors in data that do exist
Energy supply data good for most sources, with the exception of heat production units
International export and import data available, but information on imports/export to/from other parts of RF lacking
Cost data generally had to be estimated
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
Structure of RFE LEAP dataset General economic assumptions (exogenous parameters)
GDP growth rates, industrial output growth rates population dynamics, Economic cooperation: RFE (and RF), other NEA countries
Driving factors of energy policy (key variables) Necessary and cost-effective energy supply/demand in RFE Regional energy cooperation Environmental standards and constraints, Investment limitations, availability of advanced energy
technologies Energy conservation/energy efficiency policy Role of renewable sources of energy Diversification of primary energy demand and supply in RFE
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
Structure of RFE LEAP dataset Demand: no sectoral structure, just final demand by fuel, with fuel
demand by geographic area for natural gas, heat, electricity, crude oil (sector division planned)
Transformation (multiple modules for geographic areas): Heat and Electricity T&D modules 5 Export Transmission Line modules 6 Electricity Generation modules, alternating with 6 Heat
Generation modules Pipeline Oil Export, 4 Oil Refining modules Coal Washing, Gas Processing, LNG Production Modules Natural Gas T&D, 2 Crude Oil Production modules Pipeline Gas Export, 4 Natural Gas Extraction Modules Modules for Bituminous and Lignite Coal Production
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
Structure of RFE LEAP dataset: Paths
Moderate GDP growth, No Real international cooperation
Intensive introducing
energy-efficient technologies Wide use of renewables
Switching to natural gas
Cool attitude to energy-efficient technologies Weak deployment of renewables Coal dominance
Not available
Reference Scenario
National Alternative
Regional Alternative
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
LEAP Paths (“Scenarios”) Reference Case: extrapolation of currently evolving
economy/energy sector trends Moderate economic growth, slowing of population
decrease Energy supply priorities sufficient production of
energy and fuels at minimal costs self-sufficient energy balance
Coal and petroleum products will remain balance compensators
Stagnation in the sphere of international economic cooperation with NEA and Pacific Rim: only Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects realized
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Reference Primary Energy Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
TC
E Others
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Petroleum
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Reference Primary Energy Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
TC
E
Others
Crude Oil
Hydropower
Natural Gas
Solid Fuels
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
LEAP Paths (“Scenarios”) National Alternative Case: Similar to Reference
Case: extrapolation of currently evolving economy/energy sector trends, but…
More dynamic development of renewable energy sources, more active energy efficiency policy, switching from oil and coal to natural gas
New energy priorities nominally supposed to be supported with legislative acts, administrative directives but regional and local business unable to carry out in full
Stagnation in the sphere of international economic cooperation with NEA and Pacific Rim: only Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects realized
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
NA Primary Energy Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
TC
E
Others
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Petroleum
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LEAP MODELING OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM
LEAP Paths (“Scenarios”) Regional Alternative Case: Fast integration/ transformation of
RFE into "the Russian center of fuel and energy production and supplies within NEA“
Implement energy integration of Russia into NEA Projects in the southern zone of RFE core source for
optimization of energy usage in the territory International cooperation, sound domestic policy yield rapid
economic growth, slowing of the rate of population decrease increase from 2015 due to migration and international labor
Priorities of energy policy: sufficient production of energy and fuels at acceptable costs, large-scale energy export, active diversification of energy consumption to hydro and other renewables, intensive switching to natural gas; joint regional programs on energy efficiency, environmental protection.
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
RA Primary Energy Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
TC
E Others
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Petroleum
32
LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
RA Primary Energy Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
TC
E Others
Crude Oil
Hydropower
Natural Gas
Solid Fuels
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Final Energy Demand by Scenarios
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
TC
E
Reference ScenarioNational AlternativeRegional Alternative
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Primary Energy Production by Scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
TC
E
Reference ScenarioNational AlternativeRegional Alternative
35
LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Electricity Net Output by Scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
bill
ion
kW
h
Reference ScenarioNational AlternativeRegional Alternative
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
mln
to
ne
s C
O2
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
Reference ScenarioNational AlternativeRegional Alternative
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Cumulative Discounted Costs by Scenarios
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
bil
lio
n U
SD
2
00
2
Reference ScenarioNational AlternativeRegional Alternative
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Energy Supply & Demand
Economic Technological Environmental Social and Cultural
Military / Security
Total Primary Energy
Total Energy System Internal Costs
Diversification Indices for key industries by technology type
GHG emissions (tonnes CO2,
CH4
Exposure to Risk of Social, Cultural Conflict over energy systems
Exposure to Military / Security Risks
Lower in NA Lower in BAU
Higher in RA Lower in NA Likely lower in BAU
Likely lower in RA
Fraction of Primary Energy as Imports
Total Fuel Costs
Diversity of R&D Spending
Acid gas emissions (tonnes SOx, NOx)
Relative spending on energy-related security
Lower in RA Lower in RA Likely higher in RA
Lower in NA scenario
Likely lower in BAU, NA
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Energy Supply & Demand
Economic Technological Environmental Social and Cultural
Military / Security
Diversity of supply by fuel and supplier
Import Fuel Costs
Reliance on Proven Technologies
Ecosystem and Aesthetic Impacts
Higher in NA and RA
Lower in NA Higher in BAU Lower in BAU
Energy Intensity (TPES /GDP)
Technological Adaptability
Ecology Intensity (GHG/GDP)
Lower in NA and RA
Higher in RA Lower in RA
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LEAP MODEL OF RFE ENERGY SYSTEM: PATHS AND RESULTS
Energy Supply & Demand
Economic Technological Environmental Social and Cultural
Military / Security
Diversity of supply by fuel and supplier
Import Fuel Costs
Reliance on Proven Technologies
Ecosystem and Aesthetic Impacts
Higher in NA and RA
Lower in NA Higher in BAU Lower in BAU
Energy Intensity (TPES /GDP)
Technological Adaptability
Ecology Intensity (GHG/GDP)
Lower in NA and RA
Higher in RA Lower in RA
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THANK YOU!THANK YOU!