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Russia: Biofuel and Food SecurityMcGill Conference on Global Food SecurityOctober 7, 2009
Alex Ablaev, MBAPresident Russian Biofuels Association
2More info: www.biofuels.org
Russian Biofuels Association
Food vs Fuel debates
Russian grain balance
Russia as biofuels produces/supplier
Agenda for today
3More info: www.biofuels.org
Russian Biofuels Association promotes renewable first and second generation fuels in Russia
To achieve its goals the Association works with various government and non-government stakeholders in Russian and Former Soviet Union countries.
Russian Biofuels Association
4More info: www.biofuels.org
Congress “Fuel Ethanol-2010”
The 5th Congress “Fuel Bioethanol-2010”
will be held
On April 13-15, 2010
in World Trade Center, Moscow
It is were the industry like to meet!
5More info: www.biofuels.org
Event History
2 days
Over 150 companies
>300 attendees
25 countries
32 Russian regions
This is global event in biofuels and in bioenergy, which will continue and expand the essential exchange between industry, academia and government, in
Russia and internationally.
6More info: www.biofuels.org
Will be Co-located with
The EurasiaBIO Congress, Expo & Partnering is the global event for Biotechnology
and Renewable Energy in Russia and CIS countries.
April 13-15, 2010 in World Trade Center, Moscow
www.eurasiabio.org
Hosted by Russian Biotechnology Society and Russian Biofuels Association
7More info: www.biofuels.org
What Influence Grain Prices?
The chart shows corn prices vs oil prices since 2006. Corn – blue, oil – green.
Source: corn - CBOT (cents/bushel), oil - Light Crude Oil NYMEX ($/barrel).
Growth of ethanol production in the USA – from 2 to 3 bln liters per month
8More info: www.biofuels.org
What Influence Grain Prices?
The chart shows wheat rices vs oil prices since 2006. Corn – blue, oil – green.
Source: corn - CBOT (cents/bushel), oil - Light Crude Oil NYMEX ($/barrel).
Growth of ethanol production in the USA – from 2 to 3 bln liters per month
9More info: www.biofuels.org
Food VS Fuel?
10More info: www.biofuels.org
NO, Food AND Fuel
Food
Fuel
11More info: www.biofuels.org
EconomicalNeeds to export more and more oil and gas to fulfill international obligations
Dangerous dependence on food and feed import (meat – 50%!), need feed protein (no soy in Russia)
Needs of rural areas development, especially in Far East and Siberia
Russian Several Drivers to Biofuels
12More info: www.biofuels.org
Social
•Job creation in agricultural and remote location, especially in Siberia and Far East
•Growing ecology and health concerns
R&D
•Heritage of scientific excellence and background
•Ability to develop world-class technologies
Feedstock
Huge feedstock resources (food and cellulosic)
Drivers (2)
13More info: www.biofuels.orgSource: Goldemberg, 2002
Reason: Low Cost of Jobs Creation
000' US$ to create one workplace
$11
$44
$91
$145
$220
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
Ethanol +agriculture
Consumers goods
Automotive
Metallurgy
Oil processing
14More info: www.biofuels.org
Why Russia/CIS could be a world’s grain AND biofuels
supplier?
15More info: www.biofuels.org
Reason: Abundant Arable Land
Source: CIA World Book
16More info: www.biofuels.org
173
161
143
123
308
1,169
1,333
142
- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
USA
India
China
Russia
Population, mln
Arable land, mln ha
Russian has Largest Arable Land per Capita
17More info: www.biofuels.org
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
BELARUS
60% of the world black earth lands belongs to Russia and Ukraine
Very Reach Soils – Best of the World
18More info: www.biofuels.org
Russia: Fertile Triangle
19More info: www.biofuels.org
Grain Yield Low in Russia, mt/ha
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,519
76/7
719
77/7
819
78/7
919
79/8
019
80/8
119
81/8
219
82/8
319
83/8
419
84/8
519
85/8
619
86/8
719
87/8
819
88/8
919
89/9
019
90/9
119
91/9
219
92/9
319
93/9
419
94/9
519
95/9
619
96/9
719
97/9
819
98/9
919
99/0
020
00/0
120
01/0
220
02/0
320
03/0
420
04/0
520
05/0
620
06/0
720
07/0
820
08/0
9
Мир Россия
Russia
World
20More info: www.biofuels.org
23,4
14,8 15,6
42
18,721,8
50
19
Алтайский крайНовосибирская областьОмская областьПотенциальная
42,5
28,4 30,6
92Краснодарский крайРостовская областьСтавропольский крайПотенциальная
11.5 14.4 14.8
62
Spring wheat Winter wheat
Grain Yield Low in Russia
21More info: www.biofuels.org
Sugar beet yield, mt/ha
Russia
22More info: www.biofuels.org
Russian Grain Season 2008-09: Record Harvest
108
70
20
20
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Harvest 2008-09 Domestic consumption (food
& feed)
Export Surplus
mln
MT
Lost 10 mln MT
23More info: www.biofuels.org
Russia lost at least 10 mln ton of grain due to luck of storage and export infrastructure
24More info: www.biofuels.org
Russia lost at least 10 mln ton of grain due to luck of storage and export infrastructure
25More info: www.biofuels.org
Great Grain Surplus – up to 75 mln ton
100
40
15
155
(80)
75
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
200
Current production Yield increase Idle land Total
Domestic consumption (food & feed) Balance
mln
MT
26More info: www.biofuels.org
Growth of Grain Surplus
Food
Feed
Seeds
Surplus
27More info: www.biofuels.org
Need investments to the Russian’s export infrastructure in order to bring this grain to the market
Otherwise, domestic grain processing will be developed soon, Russia will export not grain, but value added products:
Wheat gluten
Starch
Biofuels
Other glucose based fermentation products
To Decrease World Grain Prices
28More info: www.biofuels.org
Current Russian capacity for grain production - 150 mln MT /year
Domestic consumption - 80 mln MT/year
Starch available - 35 mln MT/year
35 mln MT of starch = 39 mln MT of glucose
39 mln MT of glucose = opportunity for bioproducts
Russia is ready to be leading biotechnology country
Russia Will Have Enough Cheap Glucose
Source: NPK Ecologia
29More info: www.biofuels.org
