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Russia and Central Asian PoliticsMarch 9, 2020 Announcements

• Exam II is next Monday. The study guide will be posted later this week.

• Deadline to drop without grade penalty is next Monday.

• One of the readings for Wednesday has been sent to you (yesterday).

Categorization of Regime Types

Non-Democracies Hybrid Regimes Democracies Anarchy

Military Juntas DelegativeDemocracy

UnconsolidatedDemocracies

Self-Governing Societies*

One-Party States Competitive Authoritarianism

Consolidated Democracies

State Collapse

Sultanism

ElectoralAuthoritarianism

Totalitarianism

More conventional, more detailed categorization:

* None exist as contemporary nation-states.

Today.

Non-Democratic Elections…

• The electoral manipulation "toolkit":– Control electoral

institutions– Mobilization tactics– Election day tactics

The Model: Electoral Authoritarianism

• Regular elections, but manipulated.

• Legitimacy claimed to be democratic, but really non-democratic.

• Governance between elections is fully authoritarian.

AzerbaijanFour

presidents since 1992.

Multiple elections.

Non-democracy.

KazakhstanOne president

from 1992-2019. Multiple elections. Non-

democracy.

TajikistanCivil war. One

president since peace. Multiple elections. Non-

democracy.

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Azerbaijan

Third President: Heydar Aliev(1993-2003)

Fourth President: Ilham Aliev

(2003-)

Azerbaijani Elections:Aliev's Victory Margins

• 2003 presidency: 77%• 2008 presidency: 87%• 2009 referendum (removal of term limits): 90%• 2013 presidency: 84.5%

– Results released 24 hours in advance…

Electoral specialists in political science argue that any victory above 75% is probably not

free, not fair, or both.

Kazakh Ex-President Nursultan Nazarbaev

Kazakh Elections

• Presidential: 1991, 1999, 2005, 2012, 2015, 2019 –avg total, 92%

• Parliamentary, total for Nazarbaev's FatherlandParty:– 1999: 31%– 2004: 61%– 2007: 88%– 2012: 81%– 2016: 82%

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Electoral Authoritarianism vs Competitive Authoritarianism

• Electoral Authoritarianism– Fully non-democratic. – Color revolution highly

unlikely.• Our examples:

– Azerbaijan– Kazakhstan– Tajikistan– Uzbekistan*

• Competitive Authoritarianism– Mostly non-democratic.– A real opposition is

permitted, although harassed.

– Some elections (local, regional) are competitive.

– Color revolution unlikely but possible.

• Our example: Russia* Moving toward this from Sultanism.

When do authoritarian regimes break down?

• When an opposition candidate or party is popular despite obstacles.

• When there are crisis conditions.*• When some elements of these models may be

absent.• When the perceived costs of repression are too

high.*• When there is factional infighting among leaders.*

* Characteristics of the late Soviet period.

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Sultanism

• A special type of electoral authoritarianism.– Or, occasionally, dictatorship with no pretense

of elections.• Most electoral authoritarian regimes are not

Sultanistic, but some are.

Sultanism

• Highly personalized politics: the state is "closely bound up with the fate of the leader."– Arbitrary power that functions

at the expense of institutions (discretionary decision-making).

– Can intervene in any aspect of politics and society.

Suleiman the MagnificentOttoman Sultan ruled 1520-66

Sultanism

• Often accompanied by a "cult of personality." • Institutions weak.• Governance through relationships.• Absence of ideology or identity.

Sultanistic Regimes

• Belarus• Turkmenistan• Uzbekistan (changing?)

The purest example among our countries (and one of the purest in the world).

Former Turkmen President

Saparmurat Niyazov(d. 12/06)

"Turkmenbashi"

The Ruhnama"Book of the Soul"

Sayings, wisdom, and history by Niyazov.

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What's new at the bookstore?

Let's have a parade…

…and let's build a monument!

Desert portrait on pipeline construction

route

Absurdistan

• Renamed the months of the calendar.– April was named after his mother.

• Make-up, video games and ballet were outlawed.• So were beards, car radios and lip-syncing.• A copy of the Ruhnama was sent into space on the

Mir.• A meteor that fell in the Turkmenistan desert was

immediately named "Turkmenbashy."• The Hippocratic Oath was replaced with an oath to

Niyazov.• Intercession with Allah: read the Ruhnama three

times and be admitted to paradise.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhXT7QgZF4oTurkmenistan, My Beloved Motherland, My Beloved Homeland!

You are always with me, in My Thoughts and in My Heart.For the Slightest Evil Against You, Let My Hand be Lost!

For the Slightest Slander About You, Let My Tongue be Lost!At the moment of My Betrayal to My Motherland, to her Sacred Banner,

To Saparmurat Turkmenbashi the Great, Let My Breath Stop!