Upload
tranminh
View
214
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
RURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:
MATCHING STRATEGY WITH POTENTIAL
Box Elder Economic Development Summit
November 4, 2011
Dr. Richard Gardner Bootstrap Solutions, Boise, Idaho
A WORD ON CURRENT EVENTS
GLOBAL COMPETITION
Post-WWII Dominance American Declining?
The Dollar Still Standard?
Or World Catching Up?
New Competitors New Opportunities
GREAT RECESSION
Most significant economic event in our life times!
A new economic
and social world will emerge from this recession.
GREAT RESET 1870s The Long Depression
1930s The Great Depression
1982-86
The Farm Crisis
2007 to ??? Great Recession
1870S – THE LONG DEPRESSION
1st Industrial Revolution Assembly Line
Telecommunications Modern Electrical System
Good Government Movement Labor Reform
Recreation & the Weekend Professional Sports
1930S – THE GREAT DEPRESSION
2nd Industrial Revolution Modern Banking
Highways & Suburbia College Educations
Modern Aviation Civil Rights
Internet
1980S - FARM CRISIS
End of Commodity Production Focus Emphasis on Value-Added Product
Differentiation Organic and Origin-Branded Foods
Local Food Movement >> Farmers Markets
2007 TO ? – THE GREAT RECESSION
Real Estate & Banking Bubbles
“Shrinking City” Movement? Less Reliance on Cars?
Service Job Improvements?
THE RESET PROCESS
Crisis Unraveling
Opportunity Space
New Innovation
New Ventures
Prosperity
THE COMMUNITY RESET PROCESS
MOST TOWNS HAVE AN ECONOMIC REASON FOR BEING
Develop Natural Resources Fur Trade Mining Strikes Sawmill Towns Fertile crop or grazing
land Transportation Hubs
River Junction or Falls Port or Ferry Pony Express, Wagon
Road Railroad Highway, Interstate
Trade Centers Source of Water
Desert Oasis Hot springs Irrigation water
Defensible Locations Natural Beauty, Spiritual
Retreat Indian Country is the
Exception
SWITCHING ECONOMIC ENGINES IS PAINFUL AND SOMETIMES FREQUENT CHANGE
Island Park, Idaho Fur Trapping Stage lines to Yellowstone Park Sheep & cattle ranching Logging Railroad Tourism & recreation – First as membership clubs, but now as an
emerging destination Real estate development & Construction – This is by
definition a non-sustainable enterprise. Part-year residents, retirees, and vacation home rentals –
This is what the building boom will produce.
WHAT HAPPENS TO COMMUNITIES WHO CANNOT
ADJUST?
They Become Remnant Communities, and Then…
They Become Ghost Towns.
UTAH’S RESOURCE INDUSTRIES ARE MATURE
% of Employment
% of Personal Income
Farming 5.2% 0.8% Forestry, Fishing, Etc 0.3% 0.2% Mining 3.1% 5.8% Manufacturing 6.4% 11.9%
Non-Metro Utah, 2009
COMMUNITY POTENTIAL MATRIX ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION OPTIONS
1. Value-Added Agriculture 2. Value-Added Forest
Products 3. Value-Added Mining 4. Value-Added Fisheries &
Aquaculture 5. Energy Diversification 6. Environmental Restoration 7. Business Retention &
Expansion 8. Plugging Retail Leakage 9. Entrepreneurship Dev. 10. Business Recruitment
11. Local/Regional Tourism 12. Pass-Through visitor
Services 13. Destination Tourism 14. Cultural Tourism 15. Attracting Retirees 16. Attracting Lone Eagles 17. Transportation Hub 18. Telecommunications
Business 19. Health Care 20. Bedroom community 21. Attracting Government
Offices
LET’S REVERSE THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PYRAMID!
Business recruitment is the icing on the Econ Dev cake Nice places attract visitors, retirees, and Lone Eagles. Pay attention to existing businesses & capture local spending All communities have innovative private, civic, and social entrepreneurs.
Recruitment
Amenity-Based Strategies
Retention
Entrepreneurship
Recruitment
Amenity-Based Strategies
Retention
Entrepreneurship
WHY THESE PRIORITIES?
Economic Development should be efficient. Pursue those opportunities with highest returns,
highest probability of success State of Utah, 1999-2008, 172,201 more jobs
94,841 net new jobs from businesses opened 78,742 net new jobs from expanding businesses -1,382 net new jobs from firms moving into Utah Larger firms (>100 employees) had negative growth
in each category Source: National Establishment Time Series, Lowe Foundation
BOX ELDER COUNTY
Net Job Growth, 1999-2008 Total = -11,114 net new jobs
Net Opened = -1,410 Net Expanded = 8,672 Net Moved In = -18,306 Note: Net opened was 2,224 for firms of less than
10 employees. Entrepreneurs did their job!
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
RUPRI CENTER FOR RURAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP
www.energizingentrepreneurs.org Don Macke, Lincoln, NE Deb Markley, NC E2 Program Self-assessments E-coaching program HTC program Transfer of Wealth studies
Much more
THE MANY FACES OF ENTREPRENEURS
Aspiring & Youth
Lifestyle
Serial Growth
Startups
Civic & Social
Transitional
Necessity
TAKING IT FORWARD: ENTREPRENEURIAL DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM
1. Adult Entrepreneurship Education 2. Youth Entrepreneurship 3. Customized Technical Assistance 4. Capital Access Programs 5. Networking & Mentoring 6. Programs to Create Cultural Change
“The Key to Your Success”
MODEL APPROACH: KEEP IT SIMPLE
Shenandoah, Iowa
CULTURAL CHECK: HOW DO WE TREAT OUR ENTREPRENEURS?
Do we value, encourage and support them?
Or do we gossip about and criticize them?
AMENITY-BASED STRATEGIES
WHY AMENITY MIGRANTS?
Migration Demographics of 1990-2005 People moving to Mountain West, moderate South, and
places with mountains, water, vibrant cultures Richard Florida – Rise of the Creative Class
Quality of life matters Aging Baby Boomers – Non-labor income rising
Non-Metro Utah from 22% in 1970 to 35% in 2009
Congestion and crime in big cities are push factors Much easier to convince than corporations
Decision unit is family or couple
TYPICAL MIGRATION PROCESS
1. Familiarity with Area- from family and friends, past education, military service, job, or family vacations
2. More and More Frequent Visits (link to tourism) 3. Move to Community
a) Part-year Residents w vacation home b) Retire to community c) Move with family & become self-employed d) Move business to community
RETIREES LOOK FOR:
Mild, four-season climate Low to moderate cost of living Cheaper housing w variety of choices Access to good health care High natural &/or cultural amenities Small town feel, safety, walkable downtown
UTAH RETIREMENT COUNTIES
MIGRATING RETIREES:
Tend to have more income, assets, education, and more likely to be married
Bring equivalent of a job with them (pensions are payments for work done in past)
Are interested in volunteering and integrating into community
May bring different values and expectations of public services…
Myth or Reality: May vote against bond issues?? Can be recruited very cost-effectively…
LONE EAGLES OR LIFESTYLE ENTREPRENEURS:
Need high speed telecommunications Need access to air travel Are often little known to community leaders:
Who are they are ? Where do they come from? Why did they move here? What do they like? What else do they need to succeed? Do they have friends who might want to come? How do we get more of these folks?
Two surefire strategies for:
BUILDING COMMUNITY CAPACITY
CAPACITY-BUILDING– THE NEVER-ENDING STORY
Tupelo Model & most experts say it all begins with effective leaders
Collaborative community leaders require a different skill set than business leaders.
Two recent losses Northern states lose NWAF’s Horizons program RC&D program funding eliminated by USDA
TUPELO, MISSISSIPPI MODEL OF DEVELOPMENT
We’ve been looking at Economic Development
Infrastructure & community systems support business.
It takes organizations to support strategies and projects.
Leadership is the foundation.
It all begins with people
BEST PRACTICE: OREGON’S FILP PROGRAM
Led by Tom Gallagher & Ford Family Foundation Implemented by RDI (Rural Development Initiatives)
5 year community engagement Year 1: Leadership Class Year 2: Effective Organizations Year 3: 2nd Leadership Class Year 4: Community Collaborations Year 5: 3rd Leadership Class (self-trained)
8,000 trained community leaders across rural OR Goal: No community grant given to a stranger
ONTARIO OREGON LEADERSHIP CLASS
BEST PRACTICE: RURAL PHILANTHROPHY
NEW TOW SCENARIOS
Boston College: 1998-2052
High = $136 trillion Medium = $73 trillion
Low = $41 trillion RUPRI: 2010-2060
High = $91 trillion Low = $75 trillion
Constant = $63 trillion Zero = $43 trillion
Our revised and most
likely scenario of future TOW for the U.S. is estimated at $75 trillion between 2010 and 2060.
Inflation adjusted 2010 dollars.
TOW & GIVE BACK A FRAMEWORK OF HOW TOW IS BEING USED
Opportunity Awareness Amount of Wealth Kinds of Wealth
Sources of Wealth
Wealth in Poor Places There is Wealth
Potential for Give Back Asset Based Development
Threat – Call to Action Depopulation Outmigration
Timing of Wealth Transfer
Donor Targeting High Net Worth Households
Types of Wealth Messaging Strategies
HOMETOWN FUNDS
All communities have more wealth than they think Many residents, and past residents, feel loyalty to
hometown Challenge is to develop community attachment by
new retirees, part-year residents & Lone Eagles Create a Hometown Fund in a local community
foundation Start a campaign to give back, now or in estate
planning, with 5% of TOW as goal
“DON’T BE PARALYZED BY COUNSELS OF PERFECTION” BEN FRANKLIN
Please use what you’ve learned, and take action to benefit your community!
THANK YOU! Richard L. Gardner Bootstrap Solutions 752 E. Braemere Rd. Boise, ID 83702 (208) 859-8878 [email protected]