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5/27/2018 RTM SkyTrain Evergreen Rev3
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Report
Operations Scenarios for Evergreen Line as ALRTAn Analysis with the Regional Transit Model (RTM)
Vancouver, B.C. / Wilmington, DE, August 2008
PTV America Inc.408-675 West Hastings Street
Vancouver, BC, V6B 1N2(604) 435-2895
South Coast British ColumbiaTransportation Authority
4720 Kingsway, Suite 1600Burnaby, B.C., V5H 4N2
(604) 453 3058
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Table of Contents
1. Background ..................................................................................................................52. Operat ions Scenar ios ..................................................................................................7
2.1. Fleet 72.2. Stations, Alignment and Run Times 82.3. Service Patterns and Headways 112.4. Layover and Recovery Assumptions 122.5. Preliminary Operations Analysis and Line Blocking 13
3. Travel Demand Estimation ........................................................................................143.1. Adjustment of SkyTrain Demand for 2007 143.2. Import of Emme Forecasts 143.3. Deriving Basic Components of Future Travel Demand 183.4. Resulting Travel Demand for 2014 and 2021 193.5. Assignment Results 20
4. Integrated Operat ions Analysis ................................................................................244.1. Operations Analysis with Four Scenarios for the AM Peak 244.2. Selection of the Preferred Scenario 314.3. 24-Hour Operations Analysis for the Preferred Scenario 31
5. Conclusions................................................................................................................34Appendix A : Scenario Composi tion and Route Names in VISUM ..................................35Appendix B : Ass ignment Resu lts fo r 2007 .......................................................................36
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Tables
Table 1: Capacities for Various Train Types ...........................................................................7Table 2: Evergreen Line Inbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times .......................................8Table 3: Evergreen Line Outbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times.....................................8Table 4: Comparison of SkyTrain Average Operating Speeds..............................................10Table 5: Operating scenarios and Operating Assumptions...................................................13Table 6: SkyTrain and WCE 2006: Trip Totals in the OD Matrices .......................................14Table 7: Rapid Transit Ridership 2014: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total......19 Table 8: Rapid Transit Ridership 2021: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total......19 Table 9: Train Assignment Peak-Operations 2021................................................................24Table 10: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Split Tail: Ridership and Operations Statistics ...............25Table 11: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at LH: Ridership and Operations Statistics ..........26Table 12: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (108s): Ridership and Operations Statistics27
Table 13: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (90s): Ridership and Operations Statistics 28
Table 14: Rapid Transit Network 2014 and 2021: 24-Hour Model Results ...........................33
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Figures
Figure 1: Evergreen Line Alignments for LRT and ALRT ........................................................6Figure 2: Regression Analysis for Station-to-Station Operating Speeds.................................9Figure 3: Lines and Route Schemes .....................................................................................11Figure 4: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and Base Scenarios ..................15Figure 5: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between Future-Base and 2004-Base................16Figure 6: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and 2004-Base Scenarios .........17Figure 7: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW .............20Figure 8: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW ........20Figure 9: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW .....21Figure 10: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW .....21Figure 11: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW .....................22Figure 12: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW ................22
Figure 13: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW .............23
Figure 14: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW ...............23Figure 15: Scenario Comparison: Ridership Impact 2021 .....................................................29Figure 16: Scenario Comparison: Operations Impact 2021 ..................................................30Figure 17: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2014.........................32Figure 18: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2021.........................32Figure 19: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2007...........................................................................36Figure 20: Passenger Loads 24-hour, 2007 ..........................................................................36
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1. Background
The Evergreen Line is planned to link Lougheed SkyTrain Station in Burnaby to Port Moody andCoquitlam with the terminus at Douglas College. Back in 2006 and early 2007 when the Regional
Transit Model (RTM) Phase A was built, the preferred technology and alignment option for the
Evergreen Line was a mainly-surface Light Rail Transit (LRT) line along the Northwest alignment.
This option was coded into RTM Phase A - consistent with detailed microsimulation work
performed by Delcan and PTV America. Since that time circumstances and priorities that affected
the 2004 choice of technology and route for the Evergreen Line have changed considerably (cited
from Evergreen Line Rapid Transit Project - Business Case document of February 2008
(http://www.translink.bc.ca/files/pdf/EvergreenLine/BusinessCase.pdf). The most important change
is that the preferred technology for the Evergreen Line is now Advanced LRT (ALRT) which is
coined as SkyTrain-like. The preferred alignment is still the Northwest corridor with somedifferences to the LRT alignment, as shown in Figure 1.
The objectives of the Evergreen Line as ALRT study are:
Update the RTM Phase A model so that the Evergreen Line option is consistent with the
Business Case document of February 2008. This updated model can then be used in future
studies namely the Broadway West Rapid Transit Study, the 5-Car SkyTrain Fleet Strategy
Analysis and future RTM Phase B scenarios.
Analyze the capacity and volume to capacity (v/c) ratios on the Evergreen Line and along
the existing Expo and Millennium Lines.
Determine the fleet requirements for SkyTrain if Evergreen Line provides a high service
quality which minimizes pass-ups.
The basis of this analysis is the RTM Phase A model, which was updated as part of the study to
reflect the most recent boarding and transfer counts for 2007. The forecast years are 2014 and
2021, to be consistent with the Business Case document. The analysis of performance will follow
the same principles and methods applied for the SkyTrain operations scenarios that were analyzed
as part of the RTM Phase A project.
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Figure 1: Evergreen Line Alignments for LRT and ALRT
LRT:
ALRT:
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2. Operations Scenarios
To develop ALRT operations on the Evergreen Line, a set of assumptions are necessary thatcover fleet, route and service schemes and train assignment.
2.1. Fleet
It is assumed that the fleet in 2015 includes at least the following cars:
150 Mark-I
132 2-car Mark-II
Some 3-car Mark-II
For various train types the following capacities have been assumed, which have been jointly
defined by BCRTC and TransLink for peak-capacity planning at the start of the RTM project:
Table 1: Capacities for Various Train Types
Length(Cars)
Capacity(Seat only)
Capacity(Seat & Stand)
4-Mark-I 4 144 300
6-Mark-I 6 216 450
2-Mark-II 2 84 238
3-Mark-II 3 126 357
4-Mark-II 4 168 476
5-Mark-II 5 210 595
6-Mark-II 6 252 714
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2.2. Stations, Alignment and Run Times
Stations and Alignment
The preferred alignment in the Northwest corridor for the Evergreen Line as SkyTrain-like service
has been modeled in VISUM (see Figure 1). The route starts from the existing Lougheed SkyTrain
station and ends at Guildford. The route has eight stations including the existing station at
Lougheed Town Centre. This corresponds to the latest state of TransLinks planning in June 2008.
It is assumed that run and dwell times for both directions are constant over the entire day, so that
the same time-profile applies to peak and off-peak hours. The following two tables display all
station stops as well as stop-to-stop distances, run and dwell times for both directions of the line:
Table 2: Evergreen Line Inbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times
Station Name Code Length[km]
Accumulatedlength[km]
Stationdwelltime
Segmentrun time atarrival
Accumulatedrun&dwelltimes at arr.
Guildford GU 0 0s 0min
Lincoln LI 0.84 0.84 12s 1min 19s 1min 19s
Coquitlam Central CC 0.83 1.67 15s 1min 18s 2min 49s
Ioco IO 1.93 3.60 12s 2min 14s 5min 18s
Port Moody PM 1.47 5.07 15s 1min 55s 7min 25s
Queens QUE 0.9 5.97 12s 1min 23s 9min 3s
Burquitlam BQ 3.23 9.20 12s 2min 52s 12min 7s
Lougheed LH 2.01 11.21 25s 2min 17s 14min 36s
Table 3: Evergreen Line Outbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times
Station Name CodeLength
[km]
Accumulatedlength[km]
Stationdwelltime
Segmentrun time at
arrival
Accumulatedrun&dwell
times at arr.
Lougheed LH 0s 0s 0min
Burquitlam BQ 2.01 2.01 12s 2min 16s 2min 16s
Queens QUE 3.22 5.23 12s 2min 52s 5min 20sPort Moody PM 0.91 6.14 15s 1min 24s 6min 56s
Ioco IO 1.44 7.58 12s 1min 53s 9min 4s
Coquitlam Central CC 1.92 9.50 15s 2min 14s 11min 30s
Lincoln LI 0.81 10.31 12s 1min 17s 13min 2s
Guildford GU 0.84 11.15 12s 1min 19s 14min 33s
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Estimation of run and dwell times.
The business case document was based on a simple travel time assumption for the Evergreen-
SkyTrain. To model the Evergreen SkyTrain in the RTM study a detailed estimation of operating
speeds and times has been performed based on the assumption that running times betweenstations can be derived from average speeds currently observed on the Expo and Millennium lines.
To account for the fact that distances between consecutive stations affect average speed an
approximation based on regression of station to station run times has been used. The regression
analysis resulted in the following formula for the station-to-station run times:
average speed [m/s] = 7.69 + 3.46 x distance [km]
The following picture shows station-to-station travel times on the existing SkyTrain and how the
regression curve fits these times.
Figure 2: Regression Analysis for Station-to-Station Operating Speeds
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Station-to-Station Distance [km ]
AverageOperating
Speed[m/s]
Existing SkyTrain Speed (Expo & Millennium)
Regression speed = 7.69 + 3.46 x distance
A dwell time of 12 seconds has been assumed for all stations apart from Port Moody and
Coquitlam Central where passengers transfer to other services. A dwell time of 12 seconds
corresponds to the minimum dwell time at existing stations of the Expo and Millennium lines where
the number of passenger boardings and alightings are generally higher than expected for the
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intermediate stations of the Evergreen line.
These assumptions have resulted in a total travel time of 14 minutes and 36 seconds inbound and
14 minutes and 33 seconds outbound. Given the length of the two routes, this corresponds to an
average speed of approximately 46km/h which is due to shorter dwell times permitting an averagespeed higher than that of existing SkyTrain services (Expo and Millennium), which is between 41
and 43 km/h depending on the Line and on the time of day.
Note that these results have led to a revision the ALRT assumptions in the Business Case
documents and model runs which used a significantly higher operating speed.
Table 4: Comparison of SkyTrain Average Operating Speeds
Line Direction Time of Day Stops Served
Average
Op. Speed *
(km/h)
Length
(km)
Total One-w
Op. Time
(min)
Expo Outbound > AM 20 42.8 28.9 40.6
Expo Outbound > Mid 20 43.1 28.9 40.4
Expo Outbound > PM 20 41.9 28.9 41.5
Expo Inbound < AM 20 41.2 28.8 42.0
Expo Inbound < Mid 20 42.3 28.8 40.9
Expo Inbound < PM 20 42.0 28.8 41.2
Millennium Outbound > AM 28 42.1 42.0 59.9Millennium Outbound > Mid 28 42.6 42.0 59.2
Millennium Outbound > PM 28 41.5 42.0 60.8
Millennium Inbound < AM 28 41.6 42.1 60.7
Millennium Inbound < Mid 28 42.3 42.1 59.7
Millennium Inbound < PM 28 42.1 42.1 60.0
Evergreen LH-GU ** > AM, Mid, PM 8 46.3 11.2 14.5
Evergreen LH-GU ** < AM, Mid, PM 8 46.3 11.2 14.5
* : Total operating time and average op. speed do not include the recovery time spent at the first stop of a route.This definition is identical to VISUMs operating statistics but different from BCRTCs published operating speeds which include
recovery times at terminal stations and as a result are slower
** : In scenarios where the Evergreen Line follows Millennium from LH to VC, run and dwell t imes and as a result speed have been
assumed identical to Millennium operations in 2007.
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2.3. Service Patterns and Headways
Four different route schemes have been considered in this study. Figure 3 illustrates the four
alternatives.
Figure 3: Lines and Route Schemes
Split Tail Double Coordinated
Break at CO Break at LH
TheSplit Tailscenario is consistent with the service schemes in the MaxCap study (conducted
with the RTM in 4/2008 for the existing SkyTrain network) and has almost identical round trip times
for both Expo and Millennium Lines, which is practical to coordinate headways of both lines. In the
Double Coordinatedscenario, the Millennium Line needs to coordinate the schedules with boththe Expo and the Evergreen Lines to assure regular headways. The Break at Columbiascenario
avoids any parallel operation of routes, except an Expo short turn. The Millennium line is reduced
to the CO-LH shuttle. This scenario can only be operated with a significant redesign of the
Columbia station so that the shuttle can turn without interfering with the Expo trains. The routes in
the Break at Lougheedscenario are identical to the LRT case forcing Evergreen passengers to
transfer at LH station while Expo and Millennium operate similarily to 2006 operations.
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2.4. Layover and Recovery Assumptions
Recovery and layover times are assumed as follows:
Waterfront outbound (Expo & Millennium): recovery of 75s for a 108s headway (similar to2006 operations) and 60s for a 90s headway.
King George inbound (Expo) as well as VCC Outbound (Millennium & Expo): recovery of
120-150s - similar to 2006.
Coquitlam/Guildford inbound (Evergreen): recovery of 90-120s
Lougheed (Millennium in Split-Tail): recovery of 120-150s
Metrotown (Expo short turn in Break at CO): less than 60s.
Overall, Expo and Millennium would have 3-4 minutes recovery per roundtrip, Evergreen
around 3 minutes.
Building a third track at Columbia in the back of the Columbia inbound platform will allow
the Lougheed shuttle to avoid sharing the track with the Expo main line trains. A crossover
for the shuttle would be needed outside Columbia station, likely in the vicinity of the unbuilt
Woodlands Station (approximately 950 metres from Columbia).
At Lougheed, the track configuration that has been pre-built as part of the Millennium Line
project will permit the CO-LH shuttle operation with only a very limited conflict between
shuttle trains and outbound Millennium-Evergreen trains.
Short dwell times (15s-30s) at LH station for the CO-LH shuttle. Recovery for the shuttle
only at Columbia station. Total recovery time can be short but will be longer than needed
(over 180s) given the long headway.
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2.5. Preliminary Operations Analysis and Line Blocking
A range of operational scenarios has been developed, in most cases without detailed simulation.
For four scenarios (highlighted grey in Table 5), operations have been modeled in VISUM.
Table 5: Operating scenarios and Operating Assumptions
Split Tail Double-Coordinated Break at LH Break at COScenariosand Routes 1 * 2 3 4 5 * 6 7a * 8a *
Evergreen GU-VC GU-VC GU-LH GU-VC
Expo WF-KG WF-KG WF-KG WF-KG, WF-MT
Millennium WF-LH WF-VC WF-VC, LH-VC CO-LH
Schedule **
Evergreen 180s 180s 3 / 5 3 / 5 180s 180s 180s 180s
Expo 3 / 5 3 / 5 3 / 5 2 / 3 2 / 3 2 / 3 2 / 3 2 / 3
Expo WF-MT 1 / 3 1 / 3
Millennium 2 / 5 2 / 5 2/5&2/5 1/3&2/5 1 / 3 1 / 3CO-LH shuttle 255s 255s
Avg. HW [s ]
Evergreen 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180
Expo 180 150 180 135 162 135 162 135
Expo WF-MT 324 270
Millennium 270 225 270 270 324 270
Mill VC-LH 324 270
CO-LH shuttle 255 255
Comb. HW [s]
GU-LH 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180
LH-VC 180 180 108 108 162 135 180 180
WF-MT 108 90 108 90 108 90 108 90
CO-KG 180 150 180 135 162 135 216 180
CO-LH 270 225 270 270 324 270 255 255
Roundtrip ***
Evergreen 78.0 78.0 33.0 78.0
Expo 87.0 87.0 86.5 86.5 87.7
Expo WF-MT 44.2 45.0Millennium 83.8 124.2 124.2
Mill VC-LH 48.5
CO-LH shuttle 21.25
Blocks
Evergreen 26 26 26 26 11 11 26 26
Expo 29 34.8 29 38.7 32 39 32 39Expo WF-MT 8 11
Millennium 19 22.3 27.6 27.6 23 27.6
Mill VC-LH 9 11
CO-LH shuttle 5 5
Total Blocks 74 83.0 83.0 93.0 75 89 71 81* : The marked scenarios have been simulated in VISUM and all numbers in the table have been generated by VISUM.** :This describes headways for stand-alone lines and operating patterns (X of Y trains) for shared lines.*** : Roundtrip time including recovery buffer at the first and last stops.
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3. Travel Demand Estimation
The estimation of the travel demand for Evergreen Line and the other rail systems follows thesame methodology as RTM Phase A. Existing demand, for 2007, is based on the most recent
counts. The future demand as station-to-station matrices is obtained by adding delta matrices to
the existing demand. These delta matrices are derived as differences between the Evergreen
forecast and the base scenario both from the emme/2 regional model. This study uses forecasts
for 2014 and 2021, derived from Emme runs for 2011 and 2021.
3.1. Adjustment of SkyTrain Demand for 2007
Using the latest boarding counts on SkyTrain and WCE, the Phase A travel demand has been
updated to better reflect 2007. The update used the TFlowFuzzy procedure to factor the station-to-station matrices from 2006 so that they fit the most recent SkyTrain boarding survey (2006,
2005 or 2003) using growth factors to reflect the 2007 values.
Table 6: SkyTrain and WCE 2006: Trip Totals in the OD Matrices
Time of Day From - To2006 Matrix Totals -SkyTrain and WCE
2007 Matrix Totals -SkyTrain and WCE
AM 5:00 9:00 53,500 56,200
Mid 9:00 15:00 65,000 69,900
PM 15:00 18:00 65,800 71,100
Eve 18:00 26:00 48,900 53,100
24-h 5:00 26:00 233,100 250,300
3.2. Import of Emme Forecasts
Emme/2 forecasts provide the basis for updating demand for future years 2014 and 2021. Link
volumes have been imported into VISUM to obtain theoretical target values for factoring existing
matrices. The most recent Emme/2 data were made available in the report Evergreen SkyTrain
Transit Volumes and Boardings, May 22nd 2008. The following figures show difference link
volumes of several scenarios, namely these are differences between the forecast year with
Evergreen as SkyTrain and forecast year Base scenario (Figure 4), between the forecast year
Base scenarios and the 2004 Base case (Figure 5) and between the forecast year with Evergreen
as SkyTrain and 2004 Base case (Figure 6). All data are displayed for the AM peak hour.
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Figure 4: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and Base Scenarios
Emme differences for 2011:
Emme differences for 2021:
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Figure 5: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between Future-Base and 2004-Base
Emme differences for 2011Base:
Emme differences for 2021Base:
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Figure 6: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and 2004-Base Scenarios
Emme differences for 2011SkyTrain:
Emme differences for 2021SkyTrain:
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From Figure 4 it can be derived how the demand changes due to the introduction of the Evergreen
Line as SkyTrain. These changes will be reflected in the demand component Evergreen Line
growth. It can also be seen that the new Evergreen Line results in a shift of passengers from the
WCE Line to services of the SkyTrain. The differences as shown in Figure 5 provide an indication
of changes for the general demand growth which is included in the demand component SkyTraingrowth. Figure 6 sums both parts up to the total changes in demand of all components.
3.3. Deriv ing Basic Components of Future Travel Demand
Demand components were updated based on the assumption that 4-hour AM volumes can be
obtained by multiplying the one-hour emme/2 volumes with a factor of 2.2 (see Phase A report).
Evergreen Line
The delta matrix for the Evergreen Line has been derived from the difference volumes as shown inFigure 4. Note that for the section between Lougheed and Guildford link volumes are zero for the
Base case, i.e. differences are equal to the link volumes as obtained for the scenario with
SkyTrain. The resulting demand that uses the Evergreen Line for the 4-hour AM period is of
17,500 linked trips for 2011 and 25,500 for 2021.
WCE
In the emme/2 forecast, the passenger load on WCE drops by about 800 trips (2021) and 1100
(2011) in the AM peak hour as a result of the introduction of Evergreen ALRT. This is mainly
caused by a change in path choice by former WCE passengers. The increase of SkyTrain
passengers will be part of the Evergreen Line demand component. The reduction of demand is
reflected by a negative WCE growth matrix which is added to the SkyTrain and WCE 2006 matrix.
Technically, the negative growth matrix is obtained by factoring a partial matrix up to the desired
target values. The difference between the partial matrix and the resulting matrix is the reduction of
WCE demand. The partial matrix is obtained as a result of a flow bundle analysis in VISUM which
determines all trips that pass over inbound links between Port Moody and Waterfront (WCE).
General Demand Growth on the Rest of SkyTrain
These changes can be mainly derived from differences without the Evergreen SkyTrain option, i.e.
Figure 5. However, major demand reduction in emme/2 due to the introduction of the EvergreenSkyTrain (negative differences in Figure 4) are taken into account too. The latter can be observed
between Broadway - Columbia, Columbia - King George, and Lougheed - Columbia (both
directions). On these section a more moderate increase than shown in Figure 5 is used to factor up
the existing demand component of SkyTrain growth.
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Canada Line
The Canada Line demand is identical to the one developed during RTM Phase A. There are two
delta matrices: residential weekday demand and airport passenger demand.
3.4. Resulting Travel Demand for 2014 and 2021
The resulting travel demand for 2021 can be directly obtained by adding up matrices of demand
components for this year. For 2014 the following formula has been used:
Demand 2014 = 7/10 * Demand 2011 + 3/10 * Demand 2021
A Python script *.py has been produced which documents the calculation method. It can be used
to obtain and store final matrices in the VISUM version.
Table 7: Rapid Transit Ridership 2014: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total
2014AM
5:00-9:00Mid
9:00-15:00PM
5:00-18:00Eve
18:00-2:0024 Hour
Day
SkyTrain & WCE 2007 56,300 70,000 71,100 53,100 250,300
+ SkyTrain growth 7,700 10,100 9,700 7,700 35,200
+ WCE growth -2,300 0 -2,300 0 -4,500
+ Canada Line demand 20,700 41,400 28,000 29,200 119,300
+ Airport demand 1,500 1,200 1,900 500 5,100
+ Evergreen Line demand 19,900 26,100 24,900 22,400 93,400
Total Demand 103,900 148,700 133,200 112,900 498,800
Table 8: Rapid Transit Ridership 2021: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total
2021AM
5:00-9:00Mid
9:00-15:00PM
5:00-18:00Eve
18:00-2:0024 Hour
Day
SkyTrain & WCE 2006 56,300 70,000 71,100 53,100 250,300
+ SkyTrain growth 16,300 21,300 20,400 16,100 74,100
+ WCE growth -1,800 0 -1,800 0 -3,600
+ Canada Line demand 23,800 44,800 32,100 33,600 134,300
+ Airport demand 1,900 1,500 2,300 600 6,300
+ Evergreen Line demand 25,500 33,300 31,800 28,700 119,300
Total Demand 121,900 170,800 155,900 132,100 580,700
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3.5. Assignment Results
Figure 7: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW
Figure 8: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW
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Figure 9: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW
Figure 10: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW
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Figure 11: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW
Figure 12: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW
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Figure 13: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW
Figure 14: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW
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4. Integrated Operations Analysis
4.1. Operations Analysis with Four Scenarios for the AM Peak
Based on the assumptions of uniform train mix over all three routes, the number of trains that are
needed in peak service (58 for 108s headway and 69 for 90s) can be translated into fleet
requirements and system capacities.
Table 9 shows the train assignment that has been used to compare the operational scenarios
modeled in VISUM.
Table 9: Train Assignment Peak-Operations 2021
Split Tail Break at LH Break at CO
Scenario name max 108s blh 108s bco 108s bco 90s
Scenario number 1 5 7a 8a
Evergreen 5-car Mark-II 3-car Mark-II 5-car Mark-II 5-car Mark-II
Expo 5-car Mark-II 4-car Mark-II 5-car Mark-II 5-car Mark-II
Expo short turn WF-MT 2-car Mark-II 2-car Mark-II
Millennium 4-car Mark-II 5-car Mark-II
Mill short turn LH-VC 5-car Mark-II
CO-LH shuttle 2-car Mark-II 2-car Mark-IITotal 2-car units 93 96 71 81
Total 3-car units 55 43 58 65
Total cars 351 321 316 357
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Table 10: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Split Tail: Ridership and Operations Statistics
Line Expo Millennium Evergreen
Train KM 7-9 h 2,304 1,481 2,045Train hours 7-9 h 54.9 35.8 47.8
Car KM 7-9 h 11,520 5,924 10,225
Car hours 7-9 h 274.5 143.3 238.9
Passenger KM 7-9 h 374,854 204,308 297,618
Passenger hours 7-9 h 8,645 4,813 6,791
Total transfers AM 14,166
Total transfers by station
BW CM 9,164
CO 1,860
LH 3,142
Capacity analysis 7-9 h: Max 15-min vol * Avg 15-min cap * Max v/c ratio *
WF BW 3,889 4,566 85
BW CO 3,290 4,541 73
CO KG 2,034 2,996 68
LH VC 2,342 2,850 82
CO LH 701 1,564 45
GU - LH 1,670 2,975 56
* Max 15-min vol = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all l inks of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Avg 15-min cap = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Max v/c ratio = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the v/c ratio = max 15min vol / avg 15min cap
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Table 11: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at LH: Ridership and Operations Statistics
Line Expo Millennium Evergreen
Train KM 7-9 h 2,563 2,508 911Train hours 7-9 h 61.1 60.6 20.9
Car KM 7-9 h 10,252 12,540 2,733
Car hours 7-9 h 244.3 302.9 62.6
Passenger KM 7-9 h 376,452 408,476 94,445
Passenger hours 7-9 h 8,691 9,587 2,024
Total transfers AM 16748
Total transfers by station
BW CM 8,065
CO 2,463
LH 6,220
Capacity analysis 7-9 h: Max 15-min vol * Avg 15-min cap * Max v/c ratio *
WF BW 3,762 4,299 88
BW CO 3,199 4,268 75
CO KG 2,086 2,663 78
LH VC 2,423 3,161 77
CO LH 785 1,636 48
GU - LH 1,698 1,785 95
* Max 15-min vol = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all l inks of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Avg 15-min cap = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Max v/c ratio = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the v/c ratio = max 15min vol / avg 15min cap
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Table 12: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (108s): Ridership and Operations Statistics
Line Expo Millennium Evergreen
Train KM 7-9 h 3,141 345 2,046Train hours 7-9 h 76.2 9.1 47.8
Car KM 7-9 h 15,704 689 10,229
Car hours 7-9 h 380.8 18.3 238.9
Passenger KM 7-9 h 515,292 24,500 326,265
Passenger hours 7-9 h 12,022 580 7,458
Total transfers AM 18,359
Total transfers by station
BW CM 11,160
CO 3,784
LH 3,415
Capacity analysis 7-9 h: Max 15-min vol * Avg 15-min cap * Max v/c ratio *
WF BW 3,917 3,970 99
BW CO 2,982 3,675 75
CO KG 1,858 3,319 56
LH VC 2,642 2,780 95
CO LH 416 833 50
GU - LH 1,656 2,975 56
* Max 15-min vol = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all l inks of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Avg 15-min cap = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Max v/c ratio = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the v/c ratio = max 15min vol / avg 15min cap
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Table 13: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (90s): Ridership and Operations Statistics
Line Expo Millennium Evergreen
Train KM 7-9 h 3,744 345 2,041Train hours 7-9 h 90.8 9.1 47.7
Car KM 7-9 h 18,719 689 10,204
Car hours 7-9 h 454.0 18.3 238.3
Passenger KM 7-9 h 514,879 24,567 325,989
Passenger hours 7-9 h 12,012 581 7,452
Total transfers AM 18,448
Total transfers by station
BW CM 11,225
CO 3,794
LH 3,429
Capacity analysis 7-9 h: Max 15-min vol * Avg 15-min cap * Max v/c ratio *
WF BW 3,923 4,760 82
BW CO 2,932 4,392 62
CO KG 1,912 3,895 49
LH VC 2,615 2,770 94
CO LH 415 833 50
GU - LH 1,653 2,970 56
* Max 15-min vol = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all l inks of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Avg 15-min cap = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period.
Max v/c ratio = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the v/c ratio = max 15min vol / avg 15min cap
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Figure 15: Scenario Comparison: Ridership Impact 2021
Number of Transfers 7:00-9:00:
Passenger KM 7:00-9:00:
Passenger Hours 7:00-9:00:
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Figure 16: Scenario Comparison: Operations Impact 2021
Number of Trains (Blocks) and Train Units in Peak Operation:
74 7571
81
9396
71
81
55
43
5865
0
25
50
75
100
1 - Split Tail 5 - Break at LH 7a - Break at CO108s
8a - Break at CO90s
Number of
Trains
Number of 2-car Units
Number of 3-car Units
Number of Train Cars in Peak Operation:
351
321316
357
250
275
300
325
350
375
1 - Split Tail 5 - Break at LH 7a - Break at CO108s
8a - Break at CO90s
Car KM 7:00-9:00:
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1 - Split Tail 5 - Break at LH 7a - Break at
CO 108s
8a - Break at
CO 90s
Evergreen
Millennium
Expo
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4.2. Selection of the Preferred Scenario
Based on the operations analysis and other considerations, TransLink selected scenario Split at
Columbia as the preferred scenario, and the 90s headway version (scenario 8a) has been
selected for a detailed 24-hour simulation for the year 2021.
The major advantage of the Split at Columbia scenario is the reduction in fleet size of 35 cars (if
scenarios 1 and 7, or 2 and 8 are compared), which would cost in the order of $100 million. This
financial advantage would enable to upgrade Broadway station to accommodate the increased
number of transfers that are expected with the preferred scenario. Another aspect of scenario 7a
is that the WF-MT capacity is less than in scenario 1. Here however, since the WF-MT short-turn
uses 8 blocks, we could provide more capacity in 7a by replacing the 2-car short-turn trains with 4-
car or 5-car trains, which would require 16 or 24 additional cars and offer fleet investment savings
relative to scenario 1 of $50 million or $20 respectively. A short-turn with 4-car trains would bring
the 15-minute capacity up to 4600 (as per scenario 1) and give a v/c of a reasonable 86%.
4.3. 24-Hour Operations Analysis for the Preferred Scenario
The representation of the preferred scenario 8a Break at CO (90s) has been enhanced with 24-
hour schedules and train assignments to allow for a complete 24-hour run in VISUM. The 24-hour
scenario is based on the following assumptions
Route scheme and operating patterns for shared lines are unchanged over 24 hours:
i.e. the Expo line runs 2 / 3 of the trains WF - KG and 1 / 3 WF MT. Evergreen runs GU-
VC and the Millennium shuttle between CO and LH.
Headways:
o all Routes have the same peak headway during PM (15:00 to 18:30) as defined for
AM.
o Evergreen: 5 minutes during off-peak operations for both Mid-day (9:00 - 15:00,
18:30 - 21:00) and Evening (after 21:00)
o Millennium Shuttle: between 4 and 5 min during Midday and 8 minutes during
Evening
o Expo combined headway WF - MT : 2 minutes for Mid and 3 minutes for Evening.
Round trip times : The time profiles depend on the time of day, so that round trip times can
vary slightly compared to the AM period. As a result, headways are sometimes adjusted,
for example for the shuttle according to the round trip time using the assumptions for
layover and recovery times, given in section 2.4.
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The following figures and table show a selection of graphical and statistical output for model runs
2014 and 2021.
Figure 17: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2014
Figure 18: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2021
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Table 14: Rapid Transit Network 2014 and 2021: 24-Hour Model Results
2014 (Sc. 8a) 2021 (Sc. 8a)
Total number of linked trips 499,700 581,400Total number of linked trips (0 transfer)
405,200 475,700Total number of linked trips (1 transfer) 80,500 89,400Total number of linked trips (2 transfers) 9,300 10,000Total number of linked trips (> 2 transfers) 100 200
Total number of transfers 99,500 109,900Total number of unlinked trips 594,700 685,200
Unlinked trips Expo Line 269,300 295,800Unlinked trips Millennium Line 29,600 34,000Unlinked trips West Coast Express 5,300 6,000Unlinked trips Canada Line 126,100 143,100Unlinked trips Evergreen 164,300 206,300
Passenger KM Expo Line 2,661,900 2,928,300Passenger KM Millennium Line 122,900 136,800Passenger KM West Coast Express 153,500 177,900Passenger KM Canada Line 987,500 1,101,200Passenger KM Evergreen 1,430,400 1,794,100
Number of blocks Expo Line 50 50Number of blocks Millennium Line 5 5Number of blocks West Coast Express 5 5Number of blocks Canada Line 16 16Number of blocks Evergreen 26 26
Seat KM Expo Line 10,943,700 10,943,700Seat KM Millennium Line 527,700 527,700
Seat KM West Coast Express 1,440,500 1,440,500Seat KM Canada Line 1,548,500 1,548,500Seat KM Evergreen 6,186,700 6,186,700
Total capacity KM Expo Line 31,007,100 31,007,100Total capacity KM Millennium Line 1,495,200 1,495,200Total capacity KM 3,484,600 3,484,600Total capacity KM Canada Line 6,157,300 6,157,300Total capacity KM Evergreen 17,529,000 17,529,000
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5. Conclusions
The Evergreen-ALRT study has used the Regional Transit Model (RTM) to analyze theperformance and operational conditions that are involved with the extension of the current
SkyTrain network to Coquitlam along the North-West corridor the Evergreen Line. The study
reveales run times and operational indicators for several possible service scenarios and alternative
ways to operate the line. The scenario comparison features multiple performance measures
covering both the operations impact and the ridership impact. The ridership data are based on the
existing demand given by 2007 counts plus Emme forecasts performed for the business case
study.
The preferred operating scenario in this study consists of:
The Evergreen Line running from Guildford (GU, in Coquitlam) over Lougheed station (LH)
to VCC station with a peak headway of 180s.
An Expo line with two branches: the mainline as today from Waterfront (WF) top King
George (KG) and a short-turn from WF to Metrotown (MT). The preferred combined
headway WF-MT is of 90s in 2021. Todays combined headway of 108s has also been
analyzed as a possible intermediary service.
A shuttle along todays Millennium Line between Columbia and Lougheed stations (CO,
LH) with a 255 s headway.
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Appendix A: Scenario Composi tion and Route Names in VISUM
Split Tail Double-Coordinated Break at LH Break at CO
Number 1 2 3 / 4 5 / 6 7a 8a
Evergreen GU-VC GU-VC GU-LH GU-VC
Expo WF-KG WF-KG WF-KG WF-KG, WF-MT
Millennium WF-LH WF-VC WF-VC CO-LH
Evergreen ST_1 ST_2 (BCO_108s) BLH_108 BCO_108 BCO_90
Expo ST_max108 ST_max90 DC_108s BLH_108 BCO_KG108
BCO_MT108
BCO_KG9
BCO_MT9
Millennium ST_max108 ST_max90 DC_108s BLH_WF108
BLH_LH108
BCO_108 BCO_90
Canada Ri and YVR (for all scenarios)
WCE 2007 (for all scenarios)
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Appendix B: Assignment Results for 2007
Figure 19: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2007
Figure 20: Passenger Loads 24-hour, 2007