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RTF – GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR UES MEASURE LIFE. Meeting 3 - Interim Discussion 10/17/2011 Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Inc. (SERA) The Cadmus Group. TODAY’S AGENDA. 10:00 Reintroductions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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RTF – GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR UES MEASURE LIFE
Meeting 3 - Interim Discussion
10/17/2011
Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Inc. (SERA)The Cadmus Group
SERA
TODAY’S AGENDA 10:00 Reintroductions 10:05 Walk through draft measure life guidelines for
next “classes” of measures (discussion throughout)
Deemed (values updates) Provisional, Simplified, Custom (Plus)
11:15 Action items between now and next meeting 11:20 Other comments / discussion 11:30 Adjourn
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: ISSUE OF MEASURE “CLASSES”
RTF Savings & Cost Classes Deemed
Can deem UES, cost, load shape from eval, engineering
Provisional Interim cost & UES for tech, meas,
practices where deployment is designed to provide data or lead to values
Simplified M&V No site specific needed (calculator)
Custom M&V Infrequent – “generic” protocols
needed
Initially Proposed Lifetime Classes*
Hardware (only) Hardware, influenced
by behavioral Behavioral
reclassified because strong preference from RTF & neater mapping that direction
*respectively 1, 3, 5; even classes are associated PROSPECTIVE
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: DEEMED ADAPTATION
Deemed measures: Based on evaluation data / and engineering estimates. Sunset date / reinstatement.
Application to Measure Lifetime Guidelines: Many utilities use tables of “deemed” values for EUL estimates (historical, statistical, consensus, combo)
Discussion: Some studies, but often just transferred from another state. Rarely include important adjustment factors (weather, business). May bias.
Before measures can be “deemed” for RTF, we need 1) a review of the sufficiency of statistical studies underlying the values and/or 2) a preponderance of similar values elsewhere – adapted for RTF climate / conditions.
Treatment: Table of EUL values. Examples: Shell; others affected by behavior, etc.?
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: PROVISIONAL ADAPTATION
Provisional measures: Interim values – insufficient evaluation data or engineering estimates to deem / deployment will collect data. Used for low / medium “risk” measures, supported by preliminary evaluations or reasonable engineering estimates. Allow “booking” w/later potential true-up.
Application to Measure Lifetime Guidelines: Can be applied to EULs realm for low to medium risk measures. We recommend a specific hierarchy for assigning these provisional values.
Discussion: We assume provisional measures will be where most of the “prospective” measures fall. In addition, measures with “gaps” that are low risk will be fall here.
Treatment: Hierarchy Examples: Cooktops (if low risk, poor data) potentially; also “next
generation” measures, and potentially any measure (including behavioral) in the short run.
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: SIMPLIFIED CALC ADAPTATION Simplified calculation: Calculate using site specific input assumptions
and engineering calculations or calculators. Application to Measure Lifetime Guidelines: Apply to some
measures currently (e.g. CFLs via operating hours). IF sufficient enhanced EUL studies (using the custom M&V protocols) are conducted that include exogenous variables / assumptions in the model, we may be able to expand the list of lifetimes that can be addressed in this way.
Discussion: Can be very appropriate and serve as adjustable deemed values for certain classes of measures – after the relationship of causal effects that are uncovered in estimation work can be identified (e.g. potentially climate, operating hours, business type, etc.).
Treatment: Develop updating procedures. Examples: CFLs currently; later pumps, motors, maybe refrigerators or
HVAC equipment via O&M, climate, business type – that sort of thing.
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: CUSTOM MEASUREMENT
Custom measures: Can’t deem, infrequent, not meaured, not suited to “simplified” (lack data), vary in operating conditions, interacting measures, etc. Generic protocols. If a large burden is imposed, collaboration or program design modification is
recommended; and an appeals process is provided.
Application to Measure Lifetime Guidelines: SR - use these guidelines to develop values to get to “simplified” (lack causal relation). LR, the description assigned above suits.
Discussion: Use to 1) assess the quality of estimates underpinning “Deemed” & “simplified”; In longer run, have guidelines for “Custom Measure/Behavior” and extra steps for “Custom-Behavior” (data / tracking).
Treatment: Guidelines from last time as core. Examples: Behavioral, process, many until moved to “simplified” or
(some) deemed…depending on “risk” and other factors.
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES:DEEMED – WHERE WE ARE…
Additional studies – gathering more!
Regions Gaps to date
Ag Com Ind Res Oth SumAIR 1 6 6 13BLDG 5 5 1 11COOK 3 3 2 8HVAC 4 15 10 11 4 44LITE 10 25 18 6 4 63MOTOR 6 8 10 3 27PROCESS 4 6 12 22PUMP 7 7 9 2 25REFRIG 4 1 9 14SHELL 8 8MISC 4 10 6 5 3 28SUM 36 89 80 41 17 263
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: “DEEMED” – WHERE WE ARE…
Residential Measures Commercial Measures
Lighting – CFL Bulbs: 6-8 years, with some recent work starting to incorporate variations based on assumptions about hours per day that the bulb operates
Hardwired fixtures – 15-20 years for interior and exterior fixtures Lamps (table or touchier) – 5-10 years for most studies,
depending on type Occupancy sensors – 10-15 years HVAC replacement – 15-25 years HVAC and water heating in Energy Star – 15-25 years Room A/C – 11-15 years Programmable thermostat – 10-12 years Whole house fans – 25 years Attic ventilation fans with thermostat controls – 19 years Duct sealing and air sealing – each 15-20 years Insulation – 20-25 years Duct insulation – 20 years Windows – 20-35 years Pipe wrap – 10-20 years Tank temperature turn down – 4-7 years Weatherization (combination measures) – 20-25 years
Lighting – CFL Bulbs – 3.4-6 years, with some recent work starting to incorporate variations based on assumption on hours per day bulb that operates in business locations
Fluorescent fixture – 11-16 years Hardwired CFL – 10-15 years HID (interior and exterior) 13-15 years Occupancy sensors – 8-15 years Daylighting dimming – 9-10 years Packaged AC/Heat Pump – 12-15 years Chillers 19-23 years Economizers – 7-15 years Programmable thermostat – 5-10 years Energy Management Systems () – 10-15
years Motors – 13-20 years.
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES:DEEMED – WHERE WE ARE…
Raw studies Plus data on accepted values from
multiple states and utilities (CSG plus data from interviewees)
Gaps, differences, Hierarchy to adapt…
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: DEEMED –WHERE WE ARE
General guidelines process for updating DEEMED values: Review EUL studies for quality, using the Custom
guidelines. Review in context for the measure / activity / program.
Examine influence of contributing factors (exogenous values). If no contributing factors are significant, move to next step. If contributing factors are significant, consider for inclusion as a “simplified M&V” approach.
Examine suitability for RTF region, using hierarchy from Appendix A: sector, program, NW/climate, etc. Wrong sector / wrong measures custom guidelines only option (to consultants
– decide if different procedures are ok for low risk, like provisional….)
Add to “deemed” table if appropriate (or “simplified” table)
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: PROVISIONAL – WHERE WE ARE
Hierarchy for assigning “Provisional” Measure Lifetimes Measures without history, sufficient obs to support custom - the
following hierarchy is recommended: Examine # of years needed to make the TRC B/C=1. Examine manufacturer’s claimed lifetime (or panel review / Delphi /
or deem a share of the value; review “class”). If > one mfg, compute average. Make adj. for sector turnover If mfg EUL claims well beyond range for TRC>1, use; if not, not cost-
effective and don’t implement. Use value as provisional estimate until “true up”, (but monitor installed
measures). True-Up requirements & frequency; and risk assessment - to be
determined Risk based on: share of 6 year plan savings, how close to B/C ratio of 1; other
factors
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: SIMPLIFIED CALC - WHERE WE ARE
Guidelines process for updating SIMPLIFIED M&V values: Review EUL studies for quality, using Custom guidelines in
context of other results available for the measure / activity. If exogenous factors significant, consider for inclusion as a
“simplified M&V” approach. (no effect deemed table) Examine suitability for RTF region, using hierarchy from
Appendix A: sector, measure, NW/climate, etc. Wrong sector / wrong measures guidelines only option
Develop appropriate calculation tool based on the key contributing factor (e.g. operating hours, HDD, business type(s), etc.).
Add to “Simplified M&V” table if appropriate (or deemed table if appropriate) .
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: CUSTOM – WHERE WE ARE
Reviewed last time Data, sampling, Questionnaire, screening, precision, data
coll’n, modeling (multiple, exogenous variables, context); documentation. Working on measurement frequency (if expected measure life is 1-2 years; 3-5, etc).
Key change – specific request of exogenous / behavioral Handles measure AND measure + behavioral
Include “classes” of O&M / behavioral / influential factors in model Investigate for drivers Use “overall” now; consider refinements in case of new targets, etc. Use refined levels as input into “Simplified” (depending on N, quality)…
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: CUSTOM – WHERE WE ARE
Operating hours
Climate – HDD, CDD
Coil cleaning / filter replacement, maintenance Q’s
Business type and business turnover variables,
Behavioral / use elements (frequency, etc.)
Other – to be completed
Lighting X X (affects op hrs)
X X
HVAC X X X X Refrig X X X X Motors, Pumps
X X
Cooktop X X Air compressors
X ? X
Other… X
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: CUSTOM – WHERE WE ARE
Revisions to address comments & behavioral only Extra steps - Data collection – No ID of “uptake” / delivery
Complex - % of pop receiving; adopted; date stopped; EUL estimate Simpler – All pop received; only some adopted…? Working on equivalence…
Hierarchy of data collection preference – behavioral Random assignment Pre/post/control Pre/post, etc.
Data needs Behavior ever adopted; frequency, quality, # HH/employees adopting Whether behavior in place / operating; what share. If discontinued…
Date of discontinuation (failure / replacement / removal) of behavior Battery bracketing discontinuation date.. Why
Confirmation of influence, demographics / operating conditions and exogenous factors…
SERA
MEASURE LIFE GUIDELINES: NEXT TIME
Next Time: Additional elements of Risk (mostly savings
shares so far) Refined guidelines incorporating comments EUL tables / numbers – thanks for
contributions & leads!! RUL TDF
Schedule: Next call 11/8/11
RTF – GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR UES MEASURE LIFE
Meeting 2 - Interim Discussion
9/23/2011
Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Inc. (SERA)The Cadmus Group
SERA
TODAY’S AGENDA 2:00 Introductions, Progress / status 2:05 Schedule / Plan review 2:10 Walk through “Classes” 2:20 Walk through Class 1 draft guidelines
& discussion issues Edits plus direction for crafting the other classes
3:10 Criteria for evaluating EULs / comments 3:15 Next Steps, leads / contacts on reports, EULs,
interviewees 3:20 Other comments / discussion 3:30 Adjourn
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
SCHEDULE / PLAN Another document Two key outcomes
Guidelines EUL values
Lists activities / deliverables Meetings / calls Comments?
Call 10/17(M), 10-11:30; materials 10/11 call 11/8(T), 2:30-4; materials 11/1 In-person 12/6(T), 11-1; draft review; materials 11/28 In-person 12/13 (T), RTF meeting ; materials 12/9
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
CLASSIFYING THE EUL WORK “Buckets” for categories of measures / issues Two uses / states of guidelines
Retrospective - Review of existing EUL study OR conducting one
Prospective – new measure, planning purposes – or won’t have an EUL…
Three measure groups Hardware / measure (CFL, HVAC, motor, etc.) Behavior influencing measure (replacing filters, temp set) Behavioral (retrocx, light cycling, water temp)
Where does software fall…? Other issues
RUL, TDF
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
CLASSES FOR EUL GUIDELINES
SERA and Cadmus Group
Retrospective - Existing EUL studies, or about to conduct Prospective
Hardware Measures / UESs
Guidelines Class 1: methods / best practices for assessing EULs, conducting EUL study; hierarchy
Values, as available (ranked), to be included in an appendix;
Important gaps / research priorities to be noted To be discussed – treatment of “software” – like building
controls as part of retro-commissioning
Class 2 – planning, no EULs – guidelines on what to use…
Hardware+Behavioral
Class 3 – to be developed Class 4 –
Behavioral Class 5 – to be developed Class 6 – Other issues RUL, TDF
All classes NOT equally important / full focus
SERA
GUIDELINES – CLASS 1: HARDWARE, RETROSPECTIVE Overview / reporting
Clarity on measure / end use / sector, years, authors, utility, territory
Summary of method, sample size Discussion issues:
Specific Discussion Issues: How prescriptive – less than instruction manual…?
Level of expertise to assume?
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
GUIDELINES – CLASS 1: DATABASE MANAGEMENT Database management
Specify data sources, how ID’d / validation Data acquisition & attrition through steps to analysis –
counts / sources / rationale Data quality checks / procedures Data not used
Specific Discussion Issues: None
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
GUIDELINES – CLASS 1: SAMPLING & DATA COLLECTION
Sampling & Data Collection Sampling procedures & protocols:
Frame, sampling / basis / stratification. Sampling entity – premise, measure, etc. &
justification. Compare to others; ID & justify sample size.
Survey instrument: Key questions: in place & operating,
failure/removal/replacement date (or brackets for dates); why removed; confirm install; basic demographics; exogenous variables relevant to measure. Include instrument.
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
GUIDELINES – CLASS 1: SAMPLING & DATA COLLECTION
Sampling & Data Collection Survey data collection:
determine / justify data collection method (phone, etc.). Pilot.
List response rates, refusal tabulations / possible refusal surveys. Tests for bias.
Statistical descriptions: Descriptive statistics for key variables used;
comparisons.
Specific Discussion Issues: Measure, premise, etc. How prescriptive?
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
GUIDELINES – CLASS 1: DATA ANALYSIS, CONTEXT, RESULTS
Analysis, context, results Outliers, influential points, missing data and
treatment. Screening data for inclusion in final dataset / why, how many.
Exogenous variables affecting lifetimes: hours, business types, CZ / HDD / CDD, other
Modeling: Modeling software / procedures used; present
model statistics Alternative models / distributions tested, relative
performance Omitted / included variables & justification;
addressing variation, exogenous variables Results / standard errors / confidence band.
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
GUIDELINES – CLASS 1: SAMPLING & DATA COLLECTION
Analysis, context and results Context and comparisons for results Precision, measurement frequency (below)
Specific Discussion Issues: Acceptable reasons to omit? Confidence requirements – 80/10? 95/5? Needs for
reliability. History. Cost. Exogenous variables – rarely used. List the ones to
be included – or types by end use? Is 50% in place and operable right definition? What
are uses? Is that appropriate value? Frequency – vary by expected life range? Vary by
business turnover? Vary by contribution, uncertainty, TRC sensitivity?
Adjustments in Measure life by business / table?
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
USING EXISTING EUL STUDIES / VALUES
Use EUL? UES Sector Region Quality Elig Design
Best Same Same NW Strong Same Same
Good Same Same Other Strong Same Same
OK Same Similar NW Strong Similar Similar
Acceptable (if not critical?)
Same Diff Other Strong-Med
Similar Diff
Guidelines No No No No No No
ID gaps; recommendations to fill on priority basis: Contribution to council savings Sensitivity of TRC to EUL Number of existing studies, other Values in appendix?
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
COUNT SO FAR – REVIEW OF EXISTING EUL STUDIES
Sectors Ag – 16 Com’l – 17 Industrial – 21 Residential – 33 Low income – 0 Other – 2
Trails not strong for accepted EULs
End Uses Lighting – 36 HVAC – 25 Motors / drives – 10 Pump – 13 Water – 7 Cooking – 6 Refrig – 6 Process – 16 Misc - 3
SERA and Cadmus Group
SERA
ASSESSING QUALITY OF EXISTING EUL STUDIES
SERA and Cadmus Group
Same guidelines as Class 1 (since only hard measures thus far…) Overview Database management Sampling & data collection Data screening / modeling & analysis / context
implications and results
Looking for high quality in sample size, data coll’n, model quality / flexibility, consideration of OTHER variables
SERA
NEXT STEPS Revise Guidelines for Class 1 per today’s comments
Content, style, length, detail – use for guiding other classes Continue expert and background interviews / reports (data
request) Working on Hardware + Behavioral and Behavioral Review of prioritization
Portfolio, sensitivity Continue on EUL values assessment Look for patterns / Help inform prospective guidelines
Expect calls for info! Next meeting Call 10/17(M), 10-11:30; materials 10/11
More classes of Guidelines (1-4)
SERA and Cadmus Group