Applying SEEM Updates, Calibration, and Measure Interaction Decisions to:

Manufactured HomesWeatherization UES Measures

Regional Technical ForumJune 16th, 2015

Mohit Singh-Chhabra

2

Presentation Objective

• Approve MH weatherization measure analysis– Conducted by applying SEEM updates, RBSA calibration

(phase 1 & 2) and measure interaction decisions– Approve measures with Electric Resistance Heat

identifier as proven– Approve measures with heat pump identifier as planning

• CC&S research needs to be completed before proven measure with Heat Pump identifier can be developed

– Research Strategy presented to the RTF on 3/15

• Need to develop Research Strategy for manufactured homes heat pump calibration curve (within next two RTF meetings)

3

How We Got Here

• August ‘14: Savings calculation methodology addressing measure interaction approved by the RTF– Already applied to SF weatherization measures and approved

• August ‘14: Existing SF & MH cooling energy calibration approved by the RTF at the August ‘14 meeting– Simplified calibration, on-average thermostat setting

• December ‘14: MH weatherization analysis presented, RTF directed staff to compare modeled savings estimates with actual program data

• June ’15 (Today): Calibration curve for existing MH approved by the RTF

Measure Overview - 4

Starting Point Ending Point

Floor: R0-R22 < R-7 R-22Floor: R11-R22 ≥ R-7, ≤ R-11 R-22Attic: R0-R30 ≤ R-11 R-30Attic: R0-R22* ≤ R-11 R-30Attic: R11-R30* > R-11, ≤ R-17 R-30Window: Single-u30 Single Pane ≤ u-30

Window: Double-u30Double Pane Metal

Frame ≤ u-30

Window: u35-u30 Std. Practice ≤ u-30Window: Single-u22 Single Pane ≤ u-22

Window: Double-u22Double Pane Metal

Frame ≤ u-22

Window: u35-u22 Std. Practice ≤ u-22Infiltration Reduction Pre-blower door Post-blower door

MeasureMeasure Specifications

5

Measure Specification Update• R-30 attic insulation only applicable to homes with adequate roof

pitch – HUD certified, no less than 3:12 nominal pitch– This applies to attic insulation R0-R30, R11-R30

• Pre-HUD certified homes will not have enough pitch to allow for R-30 weatherization. The R0-R22 upgrade is applicable to these homes only.

• R19-R30 measure discontinued– R19 is the assumed cost effectiveness limit for insulation retrofits

• CAT consulted with experts (Bruce Manclark, Brady Peeks and Tom Hewes) to develop these measure specs

6

Measure Identifier Update

• New measure identifier: Electric Resistance Heat– This includes both eFAF and zonal heating systems– RBSA had very little evidence of primary zonal

heat prevalence in MH– Zonal and eFAF heated homes likely have similar

properties except duct systems

7

Methodology OverviewAnalysis follows a similar methodology as the SF weatherization measure analysis:

• RBSA informs measure baseline

• Define the Full Measure Package (FMP) to conduct RTF measure interaction guidance compliant energy savings analysis

• Apply RTF approved Phase 1 and Phase 2 calibration

• Apply RTF approved savings calculation methodology for measures with significant measure interaction (Option 3)

8

Measure Baseline

• RBSA MH homes simulated in SEEM as is to develop baseline – Each home simulated in all climate zones, similar

SF analysis– Accurate representation of average regional UA

value

9

Phase I Adjustment Factors

10

Phase II Adjustment Factors

Measure Interactions (Option 3)

Full Measure Package(Defining efficiency levels)Attic: R-30Floors: R-22Windows: u-0.30Infiltration: 0.35 ACHnDuct Tightness: PTCSDuct Insulation: R-8Heat Pump HSPF: 9.0HP CC&S: PTCS

11

Limit on Full Measure Package(Maximum efficiency of starting point)

Attic: R-19Floors: R-11Windows: Double Pane Metal FrameInfiltration: 0.35 ACHnDuct Tightness: n/aDuct Insulation: UninsulatedHeat Pump HSPF: n/aHP CC&S: n/a

Guidelines compliant Measure Interaction savings methodology implemented to calculate measure savings • Follows similar methodology as the SF analysis.

12

Interpreting the Energy Savings Comparison

• Current Savings: – pre-RBSA calibration savings

• Note, these aren’t un-calibrated savings

– Use LMI methodology– Currently on our books

• Proposed Savings:– Includes RBSA Phase 1 & 2 calibration– Includes measure interaction analysis “Option 3”

13

Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Attic Measures

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3Attic R0-R22 Attic R0-R30 Attic R11-R30

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Current Savings Proposed Savings

14

Notes on Attic Savings Comparison

• Except the R0-R22 measure, we see a general trend of decrease in energy savings

• Attic R0-R22:– The current savings are for attic R0-R19 insulation upgrade– The proposed savings are based on pre-HUD homes only;

not the case for current

• Attic R11-R30:– The current savings are for attic R19-R30 insulation upgrade

15

Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Floor Measures

Electrical Resistance

Heat Pump Electrical Resistance

Heat Pump Electrical Resistance

Heat Pump Electrical Resistance

Heat Pump Electrical Resistance

Heat Pump Electrical Resistance

Heat Pump

HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3Floor R0-R22 Floor R11-R22

(0.50)

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Current Savings Proposed Savings

16

Notes on Floor Insulation Savings Comparison

• General trend: decrease in per unit energy savings• Savings floor insulation in HP heated homes in HZ

2, 3 are almost zero (sometimes negative)– For these measures, the calibrated FMP homes

consume as much or slightly more energy than the calibrated RBSA homes

– This is a function of the RBSA Phase 1 calibration curve (see backup slides)

– Note: very few RBSA homes with a HP qualify for a floor insulation upgrade. i.e. measure unlikely to be common

17

Energy Savings (kWh/cfm50 red’n): Infiltration Reduction

El

ectr

ical

Res

ista

nce

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

HZ1 HZ1 HZ2 HZ2 HZ3 HZ3

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Current Savings Proposed Savings

18

Notes on Infiltration Energy Savings Comparison

• Savings decreased for measures due to– Updated SEEM infiltration algorithm

• See RTF presentation slide 13: Proven UES: Residential Single Family SEEM-affected UES Measures - Whiteboard Items - Adam Hadley (9/14)

– Effects of calibration, and measure interaction

19

Window Upgrades: Energy Savings Assumption

• Note: No HP home in RBSA with double pane windows.– Hence no data to model Double Pane to U30 window

upgrade in HP homes.

• CAT estimated double pane upgrade measure savings using ratio of savings between double pane and single pane upgrade in electric resistance homes– Data available to calculate savings in HP homes for single

pane to U30 upgrade.

20

Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Window Measures

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

Elec

tric

al R

esis

tanc

e

Heat

Pum

p

HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3 HZ1 HZ2 HZ3U35 - U22 U35 - U30 Double-U22 Double-U30 Single-Cl22 Single-Cl30

-

4.00

8.00

12.00

16.00

20.00

24.00

28.00

32.00

36.00

40.00

44.00

Current Savings Proposed Savings

21

Weatherization Cost Data• RTF approved SIW cost data applied

• Proposed (and current) workbook uses the following as a proxy:– Insulation: SF cost data– Windows: SF and MF cost data– Infiltration: No change

• CAT received feedback that MH weatherization costs may be much higher than SF costs– Checked against, Idaho Power data. Costs similar to proposed

assumption– Two out of state reports used for comparison

• WI Home Energy+ LI Program – showed significantly higher costs • CO Low Income EE Retrofit Programs– showed similar costs to proposed

assumption

22

Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Insulation (2006 $/sf)

Attic R0-R22 Attic R0-R30 Attic R11-R30 Floor R0-R22 Floor R11-R22 $-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

Current Cost Proposed Cost

23

Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Window Upgrades (2006 $/sf)

U35-U22 U35-U30 Double-U22 Double-U30 Single-U22 Single-U30 $-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

Current Cost Proposed Cost

24

Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Infiltration Reduction

• No change in infiltration reduction costs– $0.68 per CFM50 reduction (In 2006$)

25

Measure Cost Effectiveness: Which measures are cost effective?

Electric Resistance Heat: HZ1 HZ2 HZ3

Attic R0-R22 2.0 3.3 4.0Attic R0-R30 0.6 1.6 2.2Attic R11-R30 0.4 1.2 1.5Floor R0-R22 0.6 1.2 1.6Floor R11-R22 0.3 0.6 0.8Infiltration Reduction 0.6 1.2 1.1Single-Cl22 0.8 1.3 1.7Single-Cl30 0.9 1.5 1.9Cl35 - Cl22 0.2 0.3 0.4Cl35 - Cl30 0.4 0.6 0.6Double-Cl22 0.3 0.9 1.4Double-Cl30 0.3 1.0 1.5

26

Measure Cost Effectiveness: Which measures are cost effective?

Heat Pump: HZ1 HZ2 HZ3

Attic R0-R22 1.1 1.3 1.5Attic R0-R30 0.6 0.8 1.0Attic R11-R30 0.4 0.2 0.0Floor R0-R22 0.3 0.0 0.0

Floor R11-R22 0.2 0.0 0.0

Infiltration Reduction 0.3 0.3 0.5

Single-Cl22 0.4 0.5 0.6

Single-Cl30 0.5 0.5 0.7

Cl35 - Cl22 0.2 0.2 0.2Cl35 - Cl30 0.2 0.2 0.2Double-Cl22 0.2 0.3 0.5

Double-Cl30 0.1 0.3 0.5

27

Delivery Verification Guidance

• Approved by the RTF on 05/2015

28

Decision Slide

• “I __________ move the RTF approve the Residential MH Weatherization UES measures as presented and:– Set the Category for measures with identifier Electric

Resistance Heat to ‘Proven’; set the Status to ‘Active’;– Set the Category for measures with identifier Heat Pump

to ‘Planning’; set the Status to ‘Under Review’;– Set the sunset date to May 31, 2020.”

29

Backup Slides

Measure Interactions - Option 3

• Methodology, for each individual home:– Calculate “Full Package Savings” using calibrated SEEM,

where baseline = RBSA, efficient-case = full measure package

– For each individual measure in the RBSA homes, using uncalibrated SEEM, calculate full measure package “LMI Savings”

– Then, calculate the savings for the measure for the home (example: attics):

• Weight savings results by RBSA sample for each individual home

30

31

Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I

Most Base case homes

Most efficient homes

32

Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I

1

1

2

2

3

3

33

Discussion: MH Calibration Phase 1 (contd.)

332

211

Run LabelSEEM.69 Heating kWh/yr.

Adj. FactorPhase 1 Heating Energy Use (kWh/yr.)

Savings (kWh/yr.)

21278_1 6,667 1 6,780

FMP_21278_1 4,420 1 5,547

21278_2 11,334 1 7,447

FMP_21278_2 7,492 1 7,048

21278_3 15,399 0 7,225

FMP_21278_3 10,323 1 7,442 -217

399

1,233

34

Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I

R0-R22

R0-R30

35

Discussion: MH Calibration Phase 1 (contd.)

R0-R30

R0-R22