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August 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 © GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
VALUE VORTEX Why Value is Getting Harder to Find!
Gordon T Long 8/19/2015
2 August 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 © GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
VALUE VORTEX
WHY VALUE IS GETTING HARDER TO FIND!
AUGUST MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
MARKET MESSAGE ................................................................................................................................. 3
I- DEFINING CHARTS ....................................................................................................................................................................17 Defining Chart #3 - The Big “M” and Super Cycle “b” .................................................................................................................... 19 Defining Chart #4 – Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 20 The Bottom Line .............................................................................................................................................................................. 23
II- TARGETS ...................................................................................................................................................................................25 III – QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................27
NEW-SENTIMENT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 28 NEW-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 31 Valuation Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................ 31 NEW-RISK ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 32
IV – STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................33 STUDY: 7 Year Cycle Arrives In September ..............................................................................................................................33
THE SEPTEMBER “SHEMITAH” ..................................................................................................................................................... 33 CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 38
YE EARNINGS – 2015 Forecasts .................................................................................................................................................39 CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 39
NEW-Q2 EARNINGS – Reported Results ...................................................................................................................................44 CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 44
V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................48 VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................49
THE VALUE VORTEX ............................................................................................................................. 50
MONETARY MALPRACTICE ........................................................................................................................................................50 MONETARY VORTEX ....................................................................................................................................................................51
UNSOUND MONEY ........................................................................................................................................................................... 51 EXCESS SUPPLY .............................................................................................................................................................................. 51
FINANCIAL ENGINEERING ..........................................................................................................................................................52 USAGE – LACK OF INVESTMENT, LACK OF LENDING ............................................................................................................ 53 FALLING MONEY VELOCITY .......................................................................................................................................................... 54 CRISIS OF TRUST ............................................................................................................................................................................. 54 ENTITLEMENT CRISIS. .................................................................................................................................................................... 55 PENSION POVERTY ......................................................................................................................................................................... 56
VALUE VORTEX ............................................................................................................................................................................57 IDEAL WORLD .................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 DISTORTIONS .................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 VALUE ADD ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 58 CURRENCY DEBASEMENT ............................................................................................................................................................ 58 ASSET PRICE INFLATION ............................................................................................................................................................... 59 VALUE ADD PREMIUM ..................................................................................................................................................................... 59 INVESTMENTS ARE CHANGING. .................................................................................................................................................. 60 INNOVATION & KNOWLEDGE ........................................................................................................................................................ 60 WHAT TO EXPECT ............................................................................................................................................................................ 63
PRINT THE MONEY .......................................................................................................................................................................63
