Roubini Country Insights › pdf › Roubini_Country...• India’s IAS to deteriorate slightly, with a risk of increase in the CDS spread, but will remain stronger than 2013 •

Roubini Country Insights™

An introduction to our proprietary country risk scoring model

• Expert judgement • Forecasting• Policy insight• Scenario analysis• Market views

• 100+ scores and ranks• 174 countries• Consistent and unbiased• Fully transparent• Trackable over time• Customisable risk indicators

2roubini.com | [email protected] +44 (0) 20 7881 8800 | [email protected] +1 212 897 6777 | [email protected] +65 6236 1600

The combination of systematic modelling with RGE expert analysis provides our clients with unparalleled insight into country strengths and vulnerabilities.

Our approach to country risk

National Balance Sheet ApproachFlows vs. Stocks

Comprehensive viewGlobal interconnectedness

Expert analysis Systematic risk scoring

Model structure & methodology


• The Country Insights™ model, which benchmarks the strength and weaknesses of 174 countries, is a key component of RGE’s systematic research, both as a tool for clients to use directly and as an input into RGE’s country and global thematic research.

• The Model draws on the National Balance Sheet approach for each country, exploring over 200 key variables to help RGE clients identify opportunities and risks.

• The standard Country Insights Model has four pillars:

• Pillar I: External Adjustment Capacity

• Pillar II: Institutional Robustness

• Pillar III: Growth Potential

• Pillar IV: Social Inclusion

• In addition to the standard model, users can develop custom indicators by selecting a relevant set of scores from the Model.

Investment Attractiveness Score (IAS)


Roubini Global Economics Country Insights™

Model Structure

I. External adjustment capacity pillar

Macro-financial adjustment capacity

External indebtedness

Current account

Reserve buffer

Trade vulnerability

II. Robustness of institutions pillar

Strength of monetary policy

Strength of fiscal policy

Total indebtedness

Banking sector

Domestic political risk

International political risk

Political institutions

III. Growth and adaptability pillar

Demography

Human resource potential

Innovation and technology

Infrastructure

Business environment

IV. Social inclusion pillar

Living standards

Health

Basic education

Safety

Satisfaction

Inequality

Perceived deprivation

We implement our national balance sheet systematically, with four pillars that cover

macroeconomics, policy and political risk, growth potential and social stability.


Combine systematic views with market prices & macro

views to identify country risk & opportunityCombine different

sets of scores to create indicators & country rankingsScore the data

using proprietary algorithms

Observe the past

•Over 200 data series (per country)•Over 2,500 data points (per country)•Cross-country-comparable sources (e.g. IMF, World Bank) • Scores reviewed quarterly

•Turns data into critical factors•Captures interaction of factors• Standardizes scoring

• Sovereign Risk•Country Strength•Total indebtedness•Banking risk & opportunity• Social, institutional & regulatory risk•Country economic growth potential

•Pairs trades•De-risking• Index re-weighting

…The process behind our systematic

risk scoring

Turning country risk from art into science…


7

The Investment Attractiveness Score (IAS)

roubini.com | [email protected] +44 (0) 20 7881 8800 | [email protected] +1 212 897 6777 | [email protected] +65 6236 1600

• One of the most valuable indicators we derive from the Country Insights model are our Investment Attractiveness Scores (IAS).

• IAS was constructed to help clients evaluate relative investment opportunities at the country level.

• The IAS assess 174 countries on three dimensions:

• exposure and robustness to external shocks;

• domestic policy strengths; and

• medium-term growth potential

• Scores are updated four times a year, as the balance-sheet data used to calculate IAS are released quarterly.

• Scores take account of structural factors like the integrity of political institutions and the state of the business environment—relatively slow-moving variables that are nonetheless important drivers of country risk and key indicators of a country’s ability to absorb capital.

• Scores are comparable across countries and can be back-tested against (cross-country) equity returns.

Model output


Source: DM Update: Germany and Ireland Advance


Investment Attractiveness Scores (IAS) – Developed Market changes

AUS AUT

BEL

CANDNK

FINFRA

DEU

HKG

IRL

ISR

ITA JPNNLD

NZL

NOR

PRT

SGP

ESP

SWE

CHE

GBRUSA

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

IAS

Ch

ange

(Q

3 2

01

5 v

s. Q

3 2

01

6)

IAS, Q3 2016

Movement in IAS can help identify new investment opportunities or risks

On to higher ground; In the danger zone

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/dm-update-germany-and-ireland-advance


Investment Attractiveness Scores (IAS) – Emerging Market changes

BRA

CHLCHN

COL

CZE

EGY

GRC

HUN

IND

IDN

KORMYS

MEXPER

PHL

POL

QAT

RUS

ZAFTWN

THA

TUR

ARE

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

IAS

Ch

ange

(Q

3 2

01

5 v

s. Q

3 2

01

6)

IAS, Q3 2016

Source: EM Update: Rising Debt Offsets Benign Inflation Trends

Movement in IAS can help identify new investment opportunities or risks

On to higher ground; In the danger zone

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/em-update-rising-debt-offsets-benign-inflation-trends

Our quintile analysis shows that equity markets in “strong” countries (those with high

investment attractiveness scores) outperform those identified as “vulnerable.”

Source: Roubini Global Economics. Dates October 2005 – October 2015. For more details, please see research “Country Insights: Delivering Alpha”

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

Developed Markets

3m 6m 1y

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

Emerging Markets

3m 6m 1y

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

Developed Markets ex North America

3m 6m 1y

Quintile Method: Reviewing the data for each quarterly

update, we divide countries into quintiles based on their

IAS ranking (low to high), then calculate simple average

equity-market returns for the countries in each quintile

over subsequent periods (3, 6 and 12 months).


Equity outperformance of High vs Low IAS countries (1/2)

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/country-insights-delivering-alpha

The quintile analysis shows that equity markets in “strong” countries

(those with high IAS) outperform those identified as “vulnerable.”

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

All World (incl. both DMs and EMs)

3m 6m 1y

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

DM Europe

3m 6m 1y


Equity outperformance of High vs Low IAS countries (2/2)








0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

DM ex-US

3m 6m 1y

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

DM

3m 6m 1y

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1 2 3 4 5

An

nu

alis

ed R

etu

rns

Quintiles

EM

3m 6m 1y


Govt. Bond Outperformance of High vs Low IAS countries







The quintile analysis shows that government bond markets in “strong” countries

(those with high IAS) outperform those identified as “vulnerable.”


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

4505.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

6.1

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

India IAS IAS forecast CDS (bps, rhs)

80

85

90

95

100

105

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Indonesia IAS IAS forecast REER (rhs)


Forecasting Investment Attractiveness Scores

• India’s IAS to deteriorate slightly, with a risk of increase in the CDS spread, but will remain stronger than 2013

• Indonesia’s balance-sheet deterioration risks weaker real effective exchange rate (REER)

We apply our macro forecasts to the Country Insights model to derive a

forward-looking two-year view of investment attractiveness

Source: Stalled Reforms Cap Asia’s Investment Attractiveness

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/stalled-reforms-cap-asias-investment-attractiveness

Which economies are exposed to Brexit risk?

Measuring European Trade and Financial Linkages With the UK

(0 = high exposure, 10 = low exposure)


IRL

NLD

CHE

CYP

LUX

NOR

BEL

ISL

ESP

SWE

DEU DNK

FRA

LTU

BGR

CZEPRT

FIN

GRC

EST

ITA SVK

POL

HUNLVA

ROUAUT SVN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Trad

e ex

po

sure

Financial linkages

Source: Brexit Risk: Which Economies Are Exposed?

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/brexit-risk-which-economies-are-exposed

16

Impact of a Trump Presidency on EM Asia / Americas


0

4

8

12

16

20Average rank across four potential transmission channels

(Higher number = more exposed)

We identify four potential global effects from Trump’s stated campaign promises, and

map the impact on a range of EM countries to identify which are most exposed.

Assumptions: Trump’s campaign promises, if enacted, would lead to higher borrowing costs on external debt, weaker

exports to the U.S. and lower remittances (in USD terms) from the U.S. for many countries, as well as weaker global

trade overall.

Source: Quantifying Trump’s Global Impact, Oct 2016.

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/quantifying-trumps-global-impact

Using Country Insights™ to map exposure to macro themes


Roubini 2016 Macro Theme Implications for EMs

Long-term challenges—aging and inequality

Adverse impacts on growth and social stability in affected EMs

U.S. is narrowing growth pillar

U.S. consumption cannot drive global demand alone, and the Fed has started raising interest rates. EMs with low risk of external debt financing and low reliance on U.S.

demand are most resilient in this environment.

Persistent lowflationEMs with a track record of delivering moderate and stable inflation may be able to use

monetary policy to support domestic demand or will at least be less likely to adopt defensive policies.

Savings glut/Investment slump

Excess savings will flow toward investment opportunities in EMs that are able to deploy capital effectively and safely weather external shocks.

Divergent, imbalanced policy stances

EMs with sufficient fiscal space and monetary policy credibility can stimulate their domestic economies, providing a cushion from global shocks.

Each year, our analysts identify their top global macro themes: an inventory

of the ideas and trends that will drive markets in the coming year…

Source: 2016 Macro Themes: EM Sweet Spots and Danger Zones.

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/2016-macro-themes-em-sweet-spots-and-danger-zones



Roubini 2016 Macro Theme Implications for EMs

China's bumpy landingEMs will be more resilient to slowing Chinese investment demand if they have limited

direct trade and are not overly reliant on investment-related goods.

Commodities—Lower investment for longer, weak

prices

EMs will have greater resilience to weak commodity prices if they are not reliant on commodity exports and/or have strong fiscal or FX reserve positions.

Persistent EM growth challenges

Countries with fiscal strength, strong medium-term potential and stable political institutions have better outlooks for domestic demand and investment.

Global trade, capital flows—A squeeze on small open

economies

Small open economies and mineral exporters are most exposed to sluggish global trade.

Metastasizing EM debtCountries with low sovereign risk, low or stable external and total debt, and flexible

exchange rate regimes are best placed to cope.

…we draw out the implications that each theme is

expected to have for key economies...





…and use select Country Insights indicators to map each country’s resiliency and vulnerability to these themes.


Average rank

Long-term challenges: aging and inequality

US is narrowing

growth pillar

Persistent lowflation

Savings glut/Investm

ent slump

Divergent, Imbalanced

Policy Stances

China's bumpy landing

Commod-ities: lower investment for longer,

weak prices

EM growth challenges

persist

Global trade, capital flows

squeeze small open economies

EM debt metastasizes

Philippines 6.4 2 8 7 4 11 12 5 5 9 1Qatar 7.3 1 2 5 2 1 6 19 3 20 14Taiwan 8.1 22 n/a 13 5 2 n/a 1 2 12 8South Korea 9.3 17 14 1 1 3 18 7 1 13 18UAE 9.8 3 1 9 3 5 13 22 10 17 15Turkey 9.9 13 11 17 18 9 5 2 8 3 13Indonesia 10.0 5 10 11 13 15 11 15 9 6 5Poland 10.1 20 5 20 9 10 10 4 11 10 2Mexico 10.8 9 21 3 10 16 4 10 18 14 3Czech Rep. 11.2 19 6 14 7 7 15 8 4 22 10Peru 11.7 7 7 4 12 17 19 23 13 11 4Colombia 12.2 6 12 12 14 18 3 18 17 15 7China 12.3 16 19 2 16 13 n/a 3 16 5 21Chile 12.6 15 16 10 6 6 21 20 5 16 11Malaysia 12.7 4 20 6 8 4 17 16 7 23 22Egypt 13.0 11 3 22 22 23 1 9 23 4 12South Africa 13.1 7 13 8 15 12 20 17 15 8 16Hungary 14.0 21 9 15 11 14 16 11 14 21 8India 14.3 14 15 15 20 21 8 12 19 2 17Thailand 15.1 12 22 21 17 8 14 6 12 19 20Brazil 15.3 10 18 18 21 22 9 14 21 1 19Russia 15.4 17 4 23 19 19 7 21 20 18 6Greece 16.8 23 17 18 23 20 2 13 22 7 23


FRABEL

IRL

NZL

JPN

HKG

ISL

GBR

ISR

USA

PRT

AUT

NLD

ITA

ESP

FINDNKNOR

SWEAUS

CANCHEDEU

SGPLUX

GRC

4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5

Country Strength Index

AAA

AA

A+

A-

BBB-

BB

B+

B-

CCC

Country Strength Index (CSI) Shows Potential Rating Actions in DMs

(average credit rating vs. CSI score)


DM Sovereign Credit and Roubini Shadow Credit Ratings

Source: DM Ratings Watch: Greece Up, France Down

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/dm-ratings-watch-greece-up-france-down

Country Strength Index (CSI) Shows Potential Rating Actions in EMs

(average credit rating vs. CSI score)


EM Sovereign Credit and Roubini Shadow Ratings

GEO

NGAHRV

HUNIDNMAR BGRRUS

ROUIND

URY

TUR

PHLPANCOL

BRA

ZAFKAZ

THAMEX MYSPOL

CZE

EGYECU

LKAJORVNM

BLRGRC

CHN

KOR

PER

VENUKR

BLZ

GHALBN

ARGPAK

LTU

SAUCHL

QATARE

GRC

R² = 0.7003

4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5

Country Strength Index

AA+

AA-

A

BBB

BB+

BB-

B

CCC+

CC

Source: EM Ratings Watch: Argentina Up, but Oil Producers Continue to Falter

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/em-ratings-watch-argentina-up-but-oil-producers-continue-to-falter


Comparing Asian balance sheet indicators

India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Maturity Mismatch

FX Reserves/Imports (months) 12.0 9.1 6.2 10.0 11.6

Short-Term External Debt/FX Reserves (%) 23.2 39.0 80.2 18.7 26.3

Short-Term External Debt/Total External Debt (%) 0.3 2.1 15.3 0.0 1.9

Currency Mismatch

Exchange Rate Regime Floating FloatingOther

managedFloating Floating

Gross Public Debt/GDP (%)* 66.5 27.6 55.8 35.7 43.7

Short-Term External Debt/FX Reserves (%) 23.2 39.0 80.2 18.7 26.3

FX Reserves/Imports 12.0 9.1 6.2 10.0 11.6

Short-Term External Debt/Total External Debt (%) 0.3 2.1 15.3 0.0 1.9

Current Account Balance -2.1 -2.8 1.9 2.4 5.7

Capital Structure Risk

Total Gross Debt/GDP (%) 129.9 76.5 261.8 94.3 217.5

Gross External Debt/GDP (%) 23.0 36.2 65.6 26.5 32.7

Financial Openness -1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -1.2

Solvency Risk

Gross Public Debt/GDP (%)* 66.5 27.6 55.8 35.7 43.7

Total Gross Debt/GDP (%) 129.9 76.5 261.8 94.3 217.5

Fiscal Debt vs. Fiscal Revenue 316.9 197.4 272.4 183.4 196.1

Fiscal Deficit -7.0 -2.7 -3.3 -0.6 -0.4

International Claims on Banks 3.2 1.4 6.5 3.2 3.5

Source: Stalled Reforms Cap Asia’s Investment Attractiveness

https://www.roubini.com/analysis/stalled-reforms-cap-asias-investment-attractiveness

23

Impact of oil dynamics on key EM currencies


RUB

SAR

COP

MXNMYR

UAE

QAR

KWD

NGN

KZT

AOA

DZDIRQ

IRRVEF

AZN

NOK

CAD

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Ch

ange

in B

ren

t p

rice

in d

om

esti

c cu

rren

cy

Oil Dependence Indicator EM/Frontier DM

Lower oil prices will hurt oil-producing countries in the Middle East, East Africa & Latin America, exacerbating the fiscal drag on growth and suppressing investment for longer.

Note: The oil dependence indicator is calculated on a scale of 0-10, where 0 is weak and 10 is strong. It incorporates measures of fiscaland monetary policy space and reliance on oil exports. It does not include FX reserves and sovereign wealth funds, which may understatethe resilience of some GCC countries.

ResilientVulnerable

Source: Bloomberg, Roubini Global Economics

Estonia (6.6)

Finland (6.7) Estonia (6.6) Slovakia (6.5)

Austria (5.9) Estonia (6.7) Germany (6.3) Germany (6.2)

Germany (5.8) Finland (6.9) Finland (6.4) Slovenia (6.1) Slovenia (6.0)

Belgium (5.8) Austria (6.2) Finland (6.5) Slovenia (6.3) Austria (5.9) Austria (5.8)

Netherlands (5.7) Germany (6.0) Finland (7.1) Slovenia (5.5) Germany (6.3) Finland (5.8) Italy (5.6)

Ireland (5.6) Netherlands (5.5) Finland (6.9) Germany (6.3) Finland (6.7) Slovakia (6.1) Austria (6.2) Slovakia (5.4) Finland (5.5)

Italy (5.5) Belgium (5.5) Germany (6.1) Austria (6.1) Slovakia (6.3) Austria (5.5) Slovakia (5.9) Belgium (5.4) Belgium (5.4)

France (5.3) France (5.2) Netherlands (5.8) Belgium (5.7) Germany (6.3) Germany (5.5) Belgium (5.9) Netherlands (5.4) Netherlands (5.3)

Portugal (5.3) Portugal (5.1) Austria (5.7) Netherlands (5.7) Austria (6.0) Netherlands (5.3) Netherlands(5.4) Italy (5.2) France (5.3)

Greece (5.2) Italy (5.1) Belgium (5.6) Ireland (5.1) Netherlands (5.4) Estonia (5.3) Italy (5.2) Ireland (5.0) Spain (5.1)

Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Sep 2007 Sep 2008 Sep 2009 Sep 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012

Spain (5.0) Ireland (5.0) Ireland (5.0) France (4.8) Belgium (4.9) Italy (4.9) France (4.9) Spain (5.0) Portugal (5.0)

Greece (5.0) France (4.9) Italy (4.7) France (4.8) Belgium (4.8) Ireland (4.7) France (4.9) Ireland (4.9)

Spain (4.7) Portugal (4.8) Portugal (4.4) Italy (4.7) Greece (4.3) Spain (4.6) Portugal (4.7) Greece (4.0)

Greece (4.6) Spain (4.3) Ireland (4.5) Ireland (4.2) Portugal (4.2) Greece (4.1)

Italy (4.6) Greece (4.3) Portugal (4.3) France (4.1) Greece (3.9)

Spain (4.3) Spain (4.1) Spain (3.6)

Greece (4.0) Portugal (3.4)Highest risk

Lowest risk

Systematic scoring in action – Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone


Source: Roubini Global Economics

5.0

Delivery


26 26roubini.com | [email protected] +44 (0) 20 7881 8800 | [email protected] +1 212 897 6777 | [email protected] +65 6236 1600

Output through Roubini.com: Single-Country Breakdown

Monitor the evolution of risks and opportunities and identify changes over time.

Create custom dashboards to monitor your universe and the indicators that you deem most useful to you. Use our predefined indicators or create custom country analysis indicators.

27 27roubini.com | [email protected] +44 (0) 20 7881 8800 | [email protected] +1 212 897 6777 | [email protected] +65 6236 1600

Output through Roubini.com: Cross-Country Dashboard

Download all Country Insights scores and raw data in a single file, either in database (csv) or Excel format, from

the Country Insights FAQ page


Output through Roubini.com: All Scores in One Go

https://www.roubini.com/country-insights/methodology

29

Output through Roubini Excel Add-In: for Excel Users

roubini.com | [email protected] Tel: 212.645.0010 | [email protected] / [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 207 092 8850

A convenient way to use in your workflow RGE’s quantitative output: Country Insights scores, raw data and RGE forecasts.

Request more information

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Documents

Roubini Country Insights › pdf › Roubini_Country...• India’s IAS to deteriorate slightly, with a risk of increase in the CDS spread, but will remain stronger than 2013 •