: role of foresight in government :

Geci Karuri-Sebina, PhD Wits School of Governance | Southern Africa Node of Millennium Project

www.ForesightForDevelopment.org

13th Public Sector Innovation Conference | CPSI

Ekurhuleni, South Africa | 28 November 2019

TAKE A MOMENT TO IMAGINE WHAT THE FUTURE WILL LOOK

LIKE… SA 2050

Transformative

Disciplined

Continued Growth

Collapse

The man who has no imagination

has no wings.

-Muhammad Ali

UN-VISIONINVITE AN ABUNDANCE OF POSSIBILITY

SHIFT : IMAGINE

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Where we are:

• Large and Young population

• Big and Small enterprises

• Urban and Rural

• Formal and Informal

• Local and Global

• Modern and Traditional

A human economy that works for the 99%?

Together we need to create a new common sense,

and design an economy that benefits everyone, not

just the privileged few. A new human economy that

would create better and fairer societies where

workers would receive decent wages, women and

men would be treated equally, children would have

opportunities and no one would live in fear of the

cost of falling sick.

(Oxfam 2017)

“Science, technology and innovation enabling inclusive

sustainable South African development in a changing world”

STI White Paper Objectives:

• Instil a culture of valuing STI, and integrate STI into government planning

and budgeting at the highest levels.

• Adopt a whole-of-government approach to innovation.

• Create an enabling and inclusive governance environment.

• Create a more innovation-enabling environment.

• Increase and transform NSI human capabilities.

• Expand and transform the research system.

• Expand and transform the institutional landscape.

• Increase funding and funding efficiencies.

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Kelvin Campbell | Chair and Founder, Smart Urbanism - London

Presentations: Smart Urbanism / Enabling Change / New Urban Models / Radical Incrementalist

We have to think about the future now…

The

Country

we have

The

Country

we want

• Service delivery

• Dynamic population

• Politics

• Economy

• Climate Change

• 4iR / technological change

• … “VUCA”

Acting now for Redress

Acting now for

Now

Acting now for FUTURE

• ThinkTools

• Systems Thinking

• Scenario Planning

• Horizon Scanning

• State of Futures Index

• Delphi

• Futures literacy

• Design Thinking

• Participatory tools

• Anticipation

• Using new

technologies…

Foresight…

• Anticipatory Assumptions:

• Hope = desires, wishes, visions

• Think = available information, prediction, extrapolation

• Hierarchical

• Presumptive

• Real World

• Complex

• Emergent

• Heterarchical

• Unknowable

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Foresight…

…For Policymakers [and many practitioners],

there is no historical data

• Perceive the world as:

• Same / Different

• Good / Bad

• Normative / Realistic

• Fate / Deterministic

• Projection / Predication

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PLANNING(CONTINGENCY)

PREPARATION(OPTIMISATION)

INVENTION(NOVELTY)

ECO

19

www.sampnode.org.za

Anticipation…

• foresight. The ability to anticipate and assess future events as well as

to strategize to avert future dangers and grasp future opportunities. A

person demonstrates foresight by being able to develop successful long-

term strategies and by being well prepared for likely contingencies.

• futuring. The act, art, or science of identifying and evaluating possible future events

• prediction. A statement that something will happen in the future

• forecast. A statement that something will probably happen in the future

• projection. A forecast is developed by assuming that a trend will continue into the future

20 http://www.wfs.org/dictionary

Anticipation…

21 http://www.projectanticipation.org/

i) Complication - systematic, integrated

ii) Complex systems

23 http://forwardengagement.org/

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iii) Transformative change

Think about your methods...

• We need to be future aware

• Be careful how we use the future

• We need to be user and context aware

• You may need different methods and tools for different:

• Purposes

• Stages

• Participants

• Audiences

• Anticipatory governance is not about a once-off.

• Foresight is a process, not an event

• Futures literacy is a capability

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DEPENDENT ON EXTERNAL

POWERS

POLLUTING VULNERABLE

GROWING DEBT & COSTS

ECONOMY DRIVEN

POLITICAL HIERARCHY

GOVERNING FOR TODAY

THIS ISNOT SMART

THIS IS SMART!

POWER & CONTROL

CORE VALUESDRIVEN

REACTIVE FEAR PROACTIVE (GUTS)

SELF SUFFICIENT

HEALTHY

QUALITY OF LIFE

SAFE

LOCAL VALUE SHARING SYSTEM

GOVERNING FOR TOMORROW

Great things are done by a series of small things

brought together Vincent van Gogh

What does citynow look like

Dr Geci Karuri-Sebina

geci@sacities.net

: co-create : : possibility :