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7/29/2019 RodgersPutting Advanced Transportation Technologies to Work for Clean Air and Energy Security
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Putting Advanced Transportation
Technologies to Work for Clean Airand Energy Security
The Mobile Source Technical Review Subcommittee
April 18, 2001
David RodgersU.S. Department of Energy
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Overview
Why Use Alternative Fuels?
What Alternative Fuel Vehicles are Available Now?
Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Challenges
Advanced AFVs and Hybrid Vehicles Vision for Transportation Deployment Programs
Selected Transportation Deployment Policies
The Energy Policy Act (EPACT)
Federal Promotion of Clean and Efficient Vehicles
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Why Use Alternative Fuels?
Petroleum Displacement
Energy Diversity
Air Quality Improvement
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Domestic Economic Development
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Estimated World Oil Supply
Source: EIA, Long Term World Oil Supply, July 28, 2000.
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U.S. Transportation Oil Demand
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
GAP
Source: Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 19, DOE/ORNL-6958, September 1999, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook
2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000), December 1999
MillionsofBarrelsperDay
Domestic Oil Production Heavy Trucks
Automobiles
Light Trucks
1990 2000 2010 2020
325 384 455 507
Highway Carbon Emissions
(million metric tons)
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Transportation Share of Emissions
Still a major contributor, despitereductions in new vehicleemissions achieved over the lastdecade
CO
NOx
Lead
VOCs
CO2
Particulates
79%
53%
13%
44%
33%
25%
SO27%
Source: EPA
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Relative Greenhouse Gases
Vegetable Oils (Future Ethyl Ester)
Vegetable Oils (Methyl Ester)
Propane
Natural Gas
Methanol
Hydrogen (Renewable)
Hydrogen (From NG)
Ethanol (Future)
Ethanol (Now)
Electricity
Gasoline & Diesel Fuel
25 50 75 100
Zero
Zero or a Credit
Zero
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Summary of Present Situation
The U.S. Transportation Sector:
Is 95% dependent on petroleum;
Accounts for 67% of all U.S. petroleum use;
Produces a significant share of U.S. pollutant releases;
Has major impacts on consumers, the economy, and thenational trade balance;
Currently has no readily available alternative to petroleum;and
Has limited infrastructure to support alternative fuels.
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Alternative Transportation Fuels
Electricity
Ethanol
Hydrogen
Methanol
Natural Gas
Compressed
Liquefied
Propane
100% Biodiesel
P-Series
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Alternative Fuel Vehicles Available Now
Electric
Ethanol
Natural Gas
Propane
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Electric Vehicles
Low Emissions
Quiet
At least 4% of new vehiclessold in California startingin 2003 must be EVs
Expensive
Limited Range
Toyota RAV4Ford Ranger
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Ethanol Vehicles
Low GHGs
Less Reactive
Subsidy Required to beCost Competitive
Few Refueling Stationsbut Numbers Increasing
Ford Taurus Chrysler MinivanFord Ranger
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Natural Gas Vehicles
Very Low Emissions
Good Performance
Lower Cost Fuel
Limited Range, butAdequate for MostApplications
Few Refueling Stations
Higher Cost Vehicle
Ford Crown Victoria Ford F-150
Honda Civic New Flyer D40 LF Bus
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Propane Vehicles
Low Emissions
Good Performance
Cost Similar to Gasoline
Few Typical RefuelingStations, Many PotentialPlaces to Refuel
Higher Vehicle Cost
Ford F-150 Ford Club Wagon
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Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Challenges
EV Batteries
Ethanol Production from Cellulose
Reduce Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Cost
Expand Refueling Infrastructure Hydrogen Production (for Fuel Cell Vehicles)
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Potential Future AFV Technology
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Vehicles
High Efficiency Direct Injection Engines for Light- andHeavy-Duty Vehicles
Fuel Cell Ford Focus Fuel Cell Mercedes A-Class
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Hybrid Passenger Cars
Honda Insight
Toyota Prius DOE programs have spurredinterest in hybrid vehicletechnologies
Two models currently available
Toyota Prius (48 mpg)
Honda Insight (64 mpg)
Potential for very low emissions
Represent a Spin-Off of
technology developed for EVs
Good potential for petroleumconservation
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Vision for TransportationDeployment Programs
A sustainable alternative fuel infrastructure
Widespread availability of AFV and ATV products
True acceptance of diverse fuels and technologies innational/regional/local transportation portfolios
Cost-competitive technologies and fuels in a variety ofmarkets
A diverse fuel supply for transportation
A change in societal norms leading to demand for cleanand efficient vehicles
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Long-term Outcomes
Billions of gallons of oil displaced or reduced
Thousands of tons of emission reductions
Tens of millions of AFVs and ATVs
Enhanced energy security and improved transportationsustainability
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Deployment Strategies
Understand the market
Develop and provide unbiased information
Offer technical and financial assistance
Develop, issue, and enforce regulations
Find and support partners
Conduct mission advocacy
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OTT Deployment Portfolio
Clean Cities: A voluntary Federal program designed to accelerate andexpand the use of alternative fuel vehicles in communities across the country
Testing and Evaluation: In partnership with industry, validate theperformance and emissions of near market-ready advanced technologyvehicles
EPACT Replacement Fuels: To implement the requirements of EPACT,collect data, perform analysis, prepare reports to Congress, and prepare, issue,and enforce needed regulations
Advanced Vehicle Competitions: Student competitions, such as theFutureTruck Challenge and the Ethanol Challenge, provide an unparallelededucation in automotive engineering and push the envelope of advanced
vehicle technologies
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79 Designations
2 new in 2000
Baton Rouge
Truckee Meadows
3 Designations Scheduled in 2001
Triangle, NC (March 19)
Twin Cities, MN (April)
Vermont (June)
More than 4,400 stakeholders
115,000 AFVs
More than 5,000 refueling stations
102 million gallons of petroleumdisplaced per year
19,000 metric tons of emissions reduced per year
Clean Cities Program Accomplishments
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Evolution of Deployment Activities
Reducing
AFV emissions testing
AFV case studies
Light-duty fleets
Analysis of AFV options
Neat fuels only
Increasing
Hybrid vehicle testing
Fuel-efficient vehicles
Niche markets
Analysis of future fuels
Blended fuels
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Selected Transportation Deployment Policies
InformationFinancial
Incentives
Regulations &
Standards
YearPolicy
1991 & 1996ISTEA & TEA-
21
1992EPACT
1988AMFA
1975EPCA (CAFE)
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The Energy Policy Act
Set a goal10% by 2000 and 30% by 2010
Voluntary programs
Public Information
Fleet mandates
Grants and incentives
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Assumptions in 1992 EPACT
Barriers to alternative fuels are primarilyinformational
The vehicle mandates solves the chicken/egg problem
Fleets are uniform, centrally refueled, and easily
regulated
Small tax incentives and grants are sufficient to pushthe market
Fuel providers will be the leaders in AFV use
Saying we have a goal is all thats needed
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Results Heading In Right Direction
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
MillionGGEofAlternativeFue
Federal
State
Fuel Provider
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Other Parts of EPACT Working Too
Clean Cities has 80 participants - thousands of vehicles
Public information on AFVs widely available
Refueling stations have grown
Dozens of AFVs offered by OEMs
U.S. AFVS among the best in the world
But not good enough to meet the EPACT
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But not good enough to meet the EPACT30% goal for 2010
30% is about 30-40Billion gallons
Oxygenates in gasolineare predicted tocontinue
Existing EPACT fleetsand other AFVscontribute about 0.4%
Including Private &Local Fleets in EPACT
could add at most 0.7%by 2010 0
1
2
3
4
5
630
EPACT Flee
Oxygenates in
Gasoline
Other AF Vs
Private & L
Fleets
Perc
entof2010Gasolin
eConsumption
EPACT Goal
?????
What Had to Have Happened to Meet
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What Had to Have Happened to MeetEPACT Goals
To meet the EPACT goalswould have required:
about 6% of all LDVs in2000 to be AFVs
about 35% of all new LDVsin 2000 and beyond to beAFVs
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0
PercentofNewLDVs
Federal Promotion
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Federal Promotionof Clean and Efficient Vehicles
Recognition of important Federal role Regulation may be necessary
Incentives may be necessary
Consumer education will be necessary
Comprehensive program Multiple market segments
Multiple technology options
Coordination and partnership
Long term commitment
Contacts at the Department of Energy
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Contacts at the Department of EnergyOffice of Technology Utilization
David Rodgers Director, Tech. Utilization 202-586-9118 [email protected]
Linda Bluestein EPACT regulations 202-586-6116 [email protected]
Shab Fardanesh Federal fleet 202-586-7011 [email protected]
Christy Ficker Green Vehicle Promotion 202-586-8791 [email protected]
Shelley Launey Clean Cities Director 202-586-1573 [email protected] OHara EPACT regulations 202-586-8063 [email protected]
TG Powell Clean Cities & StudentCompetitions
202-586-8077 [email protected]
Marcy Rood Clean Cities & International 202-586-8161 Marcy.rood @hq.doe.gov
Lee Slezak Testing & Evaluation 202-586-2335 Lee.slezak @hq.doe.gov
Dennis Smith Clean Cities Niche Markets 202-586-1791 Dennis.smith @hq.doe.gov
Dorothy Wormley Clean Cities Grants 202-586-7028 Dorothy.wormley @hq.doe.gov
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Resources at the Department of Energy
Clean Cities 1-800-CCITIES
http://www.ccities.doe.gov
Alternative Fuels Data Center
Alternative Fuels Hotline 1-800-423-1363
http://www.afdc.doe.gov
Fuel Economy Guide
http://www.fueleconomy.gov
EV and Hybrid Test Data
http://www.ott.doe.gov/otu/field_ops http://www.ott.doe.gov/hev