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Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

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Peter Greenwald; SCAQMD

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Page 1: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections
Page 2: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Agenda No. xx

Clean Air Clean Air Cl ECl EClean Energy Clean Energy 

Clean TransportationClean TransportationMaking the ConnectionsMaking the Connections

ldPeter GreenwaldSr. Policy AdvisorSouth Coast Air Quality Management DistrictMay 2010 

Cleaning the Air That We Breathe…Cleaning the Air That We Breathe…

Page 3: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

PresentationPresentationPresentationPresentation

• The Big Picture . . .  Where we’ve been and where we need to gobeen and where we need to go

• Is getting there really possible?g g y p

• Making it happen: SCAQMD’s role and strategiesand strategies 

2

Page 4: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

• The Big Picture:  Where we’ve been and where we need to gobeen and where we need to go

3

Page 5: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

South Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air asinSouth Coast Air asin

Key Key Air PollutantsAir Pollutants

• Ozone (“Smog”)– Forms from emissions of nitrogen 

oxides and hydrocarbonsoxides and hydrocarbons

– Federal attainment deadline: 2023

• Fine Particulates (PM2 5)( 2.5)– Forms from emissions of particulates, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides

– Federal attainment deadlines: 2014 (annual avg), 2019 (24 hr avg)

• Air Toxics– Most significant: Diesel particulates (carcinogenic)

– No ambient standards or attainment deadlines– No ambient standards or attainment deadlines

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Page 6: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Annual Days Exceeding Ozone StandardsAnnual Days Exceeding Ozone Standards250

150

200

50

100

01976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Former 1-Hour Federal Ozone Standard

1997 8-Hour Federal Ozone Standard (0.08 ppm)

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2008 8-Hour Federal Ozone Standard (0.075 ppm)

Page 7: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Health ConsequencesHealth ConsequencesHealth ConsequencesHealth ConsequencesAnnual Impacts in South Coast BasinAnnual Impacts in South Coast Basin

Based on 2004 Based on 2004 –– 2006 Monitored Pollutant Concentrations2006 Monitored Pollutant Concentrations

•• >6,500 premature deaths 

• 4,100 hospital admissions

• 100,000 asthma cases & other respiratory symptoms

• 8,400 cases acute bronchitis

• 660,000 lost workdays

• 5,200,000 restricted activity days

Source:  CARB. Based on 2004 – 2006 Monitored Concentrations 6

Page 8: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Modeled Cancer RiskModeled Cancer Risk2005 2005 

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Page 9: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

History: Air Quality ProgressHistory: Air Quality Progress WithWith GrowthGrowthHistory: Air Quality Progress History: Air Quality Progress With With GrowthGrowthKey Reason: Key Reason: TechnologyTechnology

– AQMD policy generally growth 

Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality Trend

Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality Trend g y g

accommodating

– Sources generally controlled over 90%120%

140%

160%

180%

pula

tion

and

200

250

300

ppb)

Ozone Air Quality TrendO3 8-Hour

Design Value

120%

140%

160%

180%

pula

tion

and

200

250

300

ppb)

Ozone Air Quality TrendO3 8-Hour

Design Value

controlled over 90%

– Technical challenges increasing 

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

ent I

ncre

ase

in P

opA

ctiv

ities

50

100

150

200

Des

ign

Valu

e (p

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

ent I

ncre

ase

in P

opA

ctiv

ities

50

100

150

200

Des

ign

Valu

e (p

– Increasing marginal control costs . . . diminishing marginal returns

0%

20%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

YEAR

Perc

e

0

50

population VMT Housing Unit O3 Design Value

0%

20%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

YEAR

Perc

e

0

50

population VMT Housing Unit O3 Design Value marginal returns

8

Page 10: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Baseline NOx Emissions andBaseline NOx Emissions andBaseline NOx Emissions and Baseline NOx Emissions and Federal 1997 Federal 1997 Ozone Standard Carrying Ozone Standard Carrying CapacityCapacity

Data from 2007 AQMPI l di b fit f l d t d t 2007Including benefits of rules adopted to 2007

1000

700

800

900

ay

300

400

500

600

Black Box231To

ns per da

0

100

200

300

Carrying Capacity

1152005 2014 2023

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Page 11: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

2030 Ozone: Source Contributions2030 Ozone: Source ContributionsBackground + Ships + Aircraft + Locomotives = 72 ppb

(With majority Tier 4 Locomotives; Approx 75% Tier 3 Ships) 

100

110

120

130

Current SCAQMD Ambient Ozone: 

120 ppb

70

80

90

100

Ozone

Current Fed Ozone Standard:  75 ppb 

40

50

60

70

ppb O

                Proposed Fed Ozone                    Standard: 60 ‐70 ppb Oceangoing Ships, Aircraft, Locomotives (24)Oceangoing Ships, Aircraft, Locomotives (24)

10

20

30

Natural Background (48)Natural Background (48)0

g ( )g ( )

10

Page 12: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Needed: Needed: 75 75 –– 90 percent 90 percent additionaladditional NOx reduction NOx reduction 

Timeframe: 2023 Timeframe: 2023 ‐‐ 20302030

Requires broad Requires broad deployment of zerodeployment of zero‐‐emission emission technologies, e.g. electrictechnologies, e.g. electric

“Combustion Out”“Combustion Out”

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Page 13: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

• Is getting there possible?

12

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Top 15 AQMP NOx Categories in 2023Top 15 AQMP NOx Categories in 2023T h l i l P i l f El ifi i / ZT h l i l P i l f El ifi i / Z EE

Oceangoing Vessels

Technological Potential for Electrification / ZeroTechnological Potential for Electrification / Zero‐‐E E 

*

( )Aircraft

Heavy‐Duty Diesel TrucksOff‐Road EquipmentOceangoing Vessels

Recreational BoatsLocomotives

Light‐Duty TrucksRECLAIM (Large Stationary)

Commercial BoatsResidential Fuel CombustionHeavy‐Duty Gasoline Trucks

Light‐Duty Cars 

High Potential     Some Potential     Low Potential

Service/CommercialHeavy‐Duty Buses

Medium‐Duty TrucksCommercial Boats

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

*    Preliminary emissions estimates;  based on IMO Tier 1 – 3 for ocean vessels; EPA 2008 rule for locomotives; 2007 AQMP short‐term measures for other.Range for oceangoing vessels based on varying deployment assumptions for IMO Tier 3 vessels.

tons per day

Page 15: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

• Electric / Zero‐Emission – On‐Road (with hybrid transition)

Key Sources:Key Sources:

AAh lh l

( y )– Rail– Ships at Berth– Residential

TechnologyTechnologyPathPath

• Substantial Hybrid‐Electric – Off‐Road– Harbor Craft 

• Electric / Zero‐Emission Where Possible– Industrial/Commercial

• 80% NOx Control– Ocean Vessel Main Engines

• Substantial Renewable Energy

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Page 16: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Is such a pathIs such a pathpppossible in the possible in the real worldreal world

What’s already been achievedWhat’s already been achievedWhat s already been achieved . . .What s already been achieved . . .

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Page 17: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Combustion Out 100 Years Ago: Combustion Out 100 Years Ago: ggElectric Local Rail TransitElectric Local Rail Transit

Los Angeles Pacific Electric Railway Depot, circa 1910

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Page 18: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Combustion Out 1944:  Combustion Out 1944:  Electric Regional Rail Transit Electric Regional Rail Transit 

Four Counties 1 150 Track Miles 900 Cars 109 Million PassengersFour Counties 1 150 Track Miles 900 Cars 109 Million PassengersFour Counties        1,150 Track Miles         900 Cars         109 Million PassengersFour Counties        1,150 Track Miles         900 Cars         109 Million Passengers

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Combustion Out 1948:Combustion Out 1948:Electric Transit Buses Electric Transit Buses 

Los Angeles Transit Lines ‐ The Trolley Bus; One of the final 30 delivered to Los Angeles in 1948

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Combustion InCombustion InCombustion InCombustion In

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Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:Light RailLight Rail

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Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:yyCars and Light/MediumCars and Light/Medium‐‐Duty TrucksDuty Trucks

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Combustion Out Today: Combustion Out Today: 

HeavyHeavy‐‐Duty TrucksDuty Trucks

22

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Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:yy

ResidentialResidential

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Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:Ships at BerthShips at Berth

24

Page 26: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:yyCargo Handling EquipmentCargo Handling Equipment

http://www.bnsf.com/employees/communications/bnsf_today/2007/06/2007‐06‐28‐e.html 25

Page 27: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:

Freight Rail Freight Rail Worldwide . . . Worldwide . . . but not in United Statesbut not in United States

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Page 28: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today:Combustion Out Today: Combustion Out Today: Electricity GenerationElectricity Generation

80 kW Solar Expansion; Stationary Fuel Cells; 2 x 250 kW in Fontana; 3 x 5 kW in Irvine

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Page 29: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Combustion Sources Today:Combustion Sources Today:yyOceangoing VesselsOceangoing Vessels

March 2010:   IMO requires lower sulfur fuel, and 80% NOx control for new vessels used in U.S. waters beginning 2016

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• Making it happen, SCAQMD’s roles and strategiesroles and strategies 

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ReassessingReassessingReassessing Reassessing Roles & StrategiesRoles & Strategies

• Authority spread among many entities

• Need emphasis on —• Need emphasis on —

– planning & analysis 

– commenting advocacy public informationcommenting, advocacy, public information, 

– funding

– collaborative solutions

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R i ’ L d hi O iR i ’ L d hi O iRegion’s Leadership OpportunityRegion’s Leadership Opportunity

What the nation will need in 2050,What the nation will need in 2050,South Coast will need in 2023 South Coast will need in 2023 –– 20302030

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General Policies for the Future

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Page 34: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Eliminate the Black BoxEliminate the Black Box

• Served purpose, but as attainment deadlines approach,

– could hinder planning & tech development

• e.g. long lead‐time infrastructure

b– creates business uncertainty

• Specify at least generally what region needs in long‐term, and from what sourcesg ,

– air plan can include options

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Page 35: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Leapfrog TechnologiesLeapfrog Technologies

• Wherever possible, consistentwith need to maintain interim progress,

– seek emissions control technologyd d f l tneeded for long‐term

– seek consensus for long‐term control by providing finality & certaintyfinality & certainty

34

Page 36: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

U “C ” t B ild CU “C ” t B ild CUse “Convergence” to Build Consensus Use “Convergence” to Build Consensus 

• Convergence: Zero emission technology can• Convergence:  Zero‐emission technology can 

be part of solution to multiple needs:

– energy security

– efficiency 

– climate

– mobilitymobility

– jobs 

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Page 37: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Use “Convergence” to Build Consensus cont’dUse “Convergence” to Build Consensus cont’dUse  Convergence  to Build Consensus, cont d Use  Convergence  to Build Consensus, cont d 

• Seek design of fed, state, local actions to provide g , , pair quality co‐benefits– E.g. energy, transportation, regulatory 

– More bang for buck; broader support

– Reduce overlapping regulatory burdens

• Develop local air strategies that also serve• Develop local air strategies that also serve national priorities – E.g. energy security 

• Seek federal funding & support – Lead in coordinated solutions

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Strategies: Specific Examples

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Page 39: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Define aDefine a Freight Transport System thatFreight Transport System thatDefine aDefine a Freight Transport System that Freight Transport System that Meets Region’s LongMeets Region’s Long‐‐Term Needs Term Needs 

• Work with transportation agencies and stakeholders

• Seek federal funding for consensus system

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Example: Example: ChiChiChicagoChicago

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Page 41: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Define aDefine a Freight Transport System thatFreight Transport System thatDefine aDefine a Freight Transport System that Freight Transport System that Meets Region’s LongMeets Region’s Long‐‐Term Needs, cont’dTerm Needs, cont’d

• Potential elements:

– Zero‐emission port container ptransport & cargo handling (in the works now)

Electrified truck lanes on key– Electrified truck lanes on key corridors (in the works now) 

– Rail electrification

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Page 42: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Example:Example:

II 710710 D di t d ZD di t d Z E i iE i i T k L ?T k L ?II‐‐710710 Dedicated ZeroDedicated Zero‐‐EmissionEmission Truck Lanes?Truck Lanes?

• Key corridorKey corridor

• Benefits– safety

– congestion

– railyard risk– public supportp pp

despite cargogrowth

• Possible tech– overhead catenary

– electromagnetic

b tt– battery 

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Page 43: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Achieving ConsensusAchieving ConsensusAchieving Consensus Achieving Consensus on Freight Transporton Freight Transport

– Global competitivenesscompetitiveness

+– Local– Local quality of life

– A world class transport system 

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Page 44: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Li htLi ht D t V hi lD t V hi lLightLight‐‐Duty VehiclesDuty Vehicles

• CARB authority

• AQMD – Support infrastructure for electricity and hydrogen (e.g. charging)

– Support development and transfer of technologies, e.g. 

– batteriesbatteries

– alternative fuel hybrids

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Page 45: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

R il El t ifi tiR il El t ifi tiRail ElectrificationRail Electrification

• Alameda Corridor: designed to accommodateaccommodate electrification

• Dual‐mode locomotives,New York City

F di t iti• Funding opportunities in energy/climate, transportation bills?

44http://www.acta.org/newsroom/photo_gallery.asp

Page 46: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Oceangoing VesselsOceangoing VesselsOceangoing Vessels Oceangoing Vessels 

• Problem: Nothing requires Tier 3 NOx vessels to• Problem:  Nothing requires Tier 3 NOx vessels to be built or routed to U.S. waters

– Controlling this enormous NOx source is left to i f l b l i l d i ivagaries of global commercial decisions

• AQMD Proposals:

– Requirements or incentive/disincentive programs to spur routing of clean vesselsg

– Preferably nationwide

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Foster Renewable EnergyFoster Renewable EnergyFoster Renewable EnergyFoster Renewable Energy

• Incentives planning etc• Incentives, planning, etc . . .

46

Find the renewable power!

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T h l Ad tT h l Ad tTechnology AdvancementTechnology Advancement

• Two key non‐road needs:

– Aircraft• Federal/international authority

• Opportunity: build on climate &fuel efficiency measuresfuel efficiency measures

– Vessel main engine PM• Largest source of port cancer riskg p

• EPA authority

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Conclusion:Conclusion:Conclusion:Conclusion:Key Action ItemsKey Action Items

• Transportation: infrastructure planning, funding projectsfunding, projects

• Legislation: transportation, energy & liclimate, etc

• Regulatory: SIP, emissions standards, etc

• Technology: funding advancement, deploymentdeployment

Page 50: Clean Air, Clean Energy, Clean Transportation, Making the Connections

Thank You!Thank You!Thank You!

Thank You!Thank You!

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