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Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

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Page 1: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Rochester Higher Education Development Committee

Projections of Economic Impact

The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University

in Southeast Minnesota

Page 2: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

The Assignment

• Impact Economics, LP retained to calculate the projected economic impact and potential return on investment to the State of following this recommendation.

The Rochester Higher Education Development Committee recommends that the State of Minnesota:

Establish a world-class signature research and higher education institution focused on programs that complement and capitalize on southeast Minnesota’s existing leadership roles in health sciences, bio-sciences, engineering and technology.

Page 3: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

ForwardEffects

BackwardEffects

LocalSpending

Labor

Supplies

Utilities

Building

Mul

tiplie

r E

ffect

(Lo

cal R

e-sp

endi

ng)

Total Impact(Backward Linkage)

R&D

Education

Outreach& Service

Extension

Volunteerism

Consulting

Q of L Events

Image

BusinessFormation

Private returns

Social returns

BusinessGrowth/Retention

BusinessAttraction

The Basic Structure of University Impacts

Page 4: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Impact Classifications

• Backward Linkage (Spending) Impacts– Input/output analysis based– Impact on output (business volume) and

employment

• Forward Linkage (Functional) Impacts– Research & Development – Higher Education – Outreach and Service

Page 5: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Research Assumptions• The basic parameters used are those specified in the RHEDC report delivered to

Governor Pawlenty and the State Legislature on January 25th, 2006. The RHEDC report details the size, scope and mission of the expanded university and serves as the foundation for developing impact estimates.

• The specific characteristics of national universities known to be productive in stimulating regional technology-based economic development have been evaluated, and the impact projections assume the expanded university will be developed similarly. The university should be state-of-the-art in terms of incentives and support for entrepreneurial and economic development activity.

• It is assumed that education gained at the University of Minnesota Rochester will not simply be a substitute for education available elsewhere within Minnesota . It is expected that the majority of students will be achieving specialized degrees specific to the health science, biomedical, bioscience, computer science and technological focus contained in partnering institutions such as the Mayo Clinic, IBM and other public/private sector partners.

• The rate of retention in the State of Minnesota of students graduating from the University of Minnesota Rochester is projected to be similar to the national average for land grant colleges and universities.

Various forces impacting the university and its operating environment will serve to affect (upwards or downwards) the impacts that are ultimately achieved. Market forces, capital availability, actions by competing universities, state revenue and its impact on state spending, and the unpredictable nature of innovation and scientific discovery are variables that are subject to change and thus will affect the ultimate impacts achieved.

Page 6: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Economic Assumption

• Impact Economics understands that the intension is to create a signature research university with specialized programs designed to link the university to the research and skilled human capital needs of key economic entities in the state within target industry sectors.

• Because of its highly specialized focus, the university will not be in direct competition with other state higher education institutions.

• Technology-based economic development will expand the economy of the State and SE Minnesota region, thereby increasing demand for the more broad-based educational services of other regional and state higher education institutions.

Page 7: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

University Parameters

• Will be an expansion of the University of Minnesota Rochester

• Will be a highly focused signature research institution with programs focused in:– Biosciences and Health Sciences– Engineering, Computer Sciences and

Informatics– Business Studies and Entrepreneurship

Page 8: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

University Development• The RHEDC report envisions expansion of the University

of Minnesota Rochester in two primary phases. • The first phase covers years one through five of

university operations and assumes that the university will be initially accommodated in 30,000 sq. ft. of leased space in Downtown Rochester.

• Once established at this leased location, planning would begin for development of a purpose-built campus in close proximity to the Mayo Clinic (again in Downtown Rochester).

• Construction of the first phase of the permanent new campus is anticipated to begin in Year 4 with development on a two city-block site with a newly constructed 60,000 sq. ft. facility (with occupancy anticipated in Year 6).

Page 9: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Size Parameters(at new campus)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Sq. Ft. 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000Students 842 968 1,162 1,395 1,673Faculty 21.1 28.4 36.8 49.7 65.2Staff 63.3 85.2 110.5 149.2 195.7

RHEDC financial projections for the University expansion show a state investment of $45.4 million for developing new facilities (including debt service). Annual operating costs, by the year 2015, are projected to be $61.5 million.

Page 10: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Structuring for Technology Based Economic Development

• Economic impact projections assume that the University of Minnesota Rochester will be structured to be state-of-the-art in terms of industry-partnering, faculty entrepreneurship, technology transfer and new business formation.

• The state has the opportunity to be innovative, creating a research university focused on biosciences, information technology and other advanced technological disciplines that is structured to facilitate the local commercialization of research discoveries and innovation.

• This opportunity should not be missed, and it is imperative that the state does not allow just another traditional academic community to develop, devoid of a formal commercialization imperative and mission.

Page 11: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Structuring for Technology Based Economic Development

• Entrepreneurial institutional culture and rewards system• Hiring entrepreneurial faculty• Institutional financial structures that favor industry research • IP protection fund • Liberal IP licensing and royalty policies• Industry research partnerships and industry-university

advisory boards and councils • Pre-seed and seed capital fund• Entrepreneurial development courses, assistance and

mentoring programs • Business incubator program• Industry education and training programs • Industrial extension and technical assistance • Career and Internship Services and Placement

Page 12: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Industry Research Partnerships

Industry Education & Training Programs

Industry Extension & Technical Assistance

Entrepreneurial Training & Development

IP Protection and Technology Transfer

Career and Internship Services/Placement

Industry-University Advisory Boards

University Entrepreneurial Culture(Incentives and Awards)

Applied and TranslationalResearch Imperative

Pre-Seed/Seed Capital Fund

Business Incubator and Services

New Technology and Products for Existing MN Business

Technology & Process Improvementfor Existing MN Business

Trained Personnel for MN Businessesand Increased Personal Incomes

Creation of New MN Technology Businesses

Attraction of Businesses to MN

Licensing and Royalty Revenues from Out-of-State Projects

Institutional Focus

Partnering & Business Development

Impact Outcomes for Minnesota

Private Sector

State & Local Government

Partnerships with Economic Development Organizations

University Research, Development and EducationStructuring for Technology-Based Economic Development

Research Niches andCore Competencies

Page 13: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Economic Impacts

Page 14: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Impact Highlights• Backward Linkage Impacts

– Construction of expanded facilities: 121 jobs and $98.3 million in total economic impact (2.2 ROI)

– Operations: 2015 (full size) 261 direct jobs and 375 indirect jobs via institutional spending. $90.4 million in annual spending impacts. (1.5 times ROI on operating expenditures).

• Forward Linkage Impacts– Between $30 and $60 million (per year of higher education) for the Minnesota

Economy through net present value of productivity increases realized through higher education gained at the university. (Added to spending impacts this increases operational ROI to between 2.0 and 2.5)

– The University is estimated to attract between $18 million and $22 million in external funds to support advanced research programs on campus. ($276,000 to $337,400 per faculty member).

– Research to produce innovations expected to generate between 8 and 13 start-up enterprises in 2015, with direct employment ranging from 240 to 380 jobs. Employment and output multiplier effects will be significant. At the 240 direct jobs level between 642 and 1,331 total jobs would be generated in Minnesota and between $105.7 and $345.3 million in total economic output. This increases the operational ROI to between 3.7 and 8.1.

– Advanced education will provide graduates with a two-times increase in their average annual lifetime earnings, equating to an increase of between $0.66 billion and $1.32 billion in personal lifetime earnings capture for Minnesotans occurring on an annual graduating class basis.

Page 15: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Backward Linkage Impacts

Page 16: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Impact of the University on the Minnesota Economy (all data in $ millions, except employment)

Output Income Employment (fte’s)

State Personal Income Taxes

Construction

Direct 39.5 -- -- --Indirect 58.8 25.2 121 0.8Total 98.3 25.2 121 0.8Operations (2015)

Direct 44.6 9.9 261 0.7Indirect 45.8 13.0 375 0.5Total 90.4 22.9 636 1.2

Page 17: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Forward Linkage Impacts

• Research• Higher Education• Outreach & Service• Other Impacts

Page 18: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

University Research

and Development

New products, discoveries and solutions to problems

Licensing of intellectual property

Incubation and generation of new Minnesota businesses

New products for Minnesota industry

Improved products for Minnesota industry

Environmental protection and remediation

Enhanced rural and urban quality of life

Improved production technologies

Jobs, output, income and gov’t revenue

New bio-based products/ biotechnology

Minnesota-based licensees. Open new markets, generate new revenue streams, enhance competitiveness.

New Minnesota business enterprises. Open new markets, generate new revenue streams, enhance competitiveness.

Enhanced income streams, product lines, productivity and income for Minnesota businesses

Enhanced income streams, product lines, productivity and income for Minnesota businesses

Enhanced income streams, product lines, productivity and income for Minnesota businesses

Enhanced position of Minnesota in rapidly emerging biotechnology sector. New products, companies and associated potential.

Enhanced environment, reduced remediation costs, marketable technologies and processes

Maintain social fabric, reduce poverty, sustain quality of life and traditions

Jobs, output, income and gov’t revenue

Jobs, output, income and gov’t revenue

Jobs, output, income and gov’t revenue

Jobs, output, income and gov’t revenue

Jobs, output, income and gov’t revenue

Jobs, output, income, gov’t revenue, reduced costs

Reduced negative costs

Function Benefits ImpactsUniversity R&D: Functional Economic Impacts

Improved & more cost effective healthcare

Enhanced public health, social welfare and reduced healthcare/medical costs for business and society

Productivity and reduced negative costs

External research funds attracted to Minnesota

State of Minnesota research funds

Commercial research funding from Minnesota industry

Commercial research funding from external industry

Page 19: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Research Funds• University of Minnesota Twin Cities generates $211,546 in

external research per faculty member. • 65.2 new faculty projected to be required when University of

Minnesota Rochester at full operational level (2015)• At $211,546 in research per faculty this equals $13,792,799 in

total projected research funds. Using 3% inflation, by 2015 research funding would be $276,020 per faculty member ($17,996,504.)

• Expect the majority of research funding will come from federal and other major sources external to the State of Minnesota, thereby providing a proportionate expansion in the state’s economic base.

• The advanced bioscience and technology focus is likely to result in higher volumes of research funding per faculty member than experienced for the whole of the University of Minnesota Twin Cities. Thus Impact Economics projects the 65.2 faculty will generate between $18 to $22 million in research ($276,000 to $337,400 per faculty member) annually by 2015.

Page 20: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Licensing & Tech Transfer• By 2015 the University of Minnesota Rochester would be expected

to generate between 8 and 10 invention disclosures per year, resulting in between 1.5 and 2 issued patents.

• University expected to be managing a total of 21 to 26 accumulated license agreements by 2015 with gross revenues to the University of between $1.2 and $1.5 million.

• The disclosure and patents data represent just a single year (2015) and there would have been further activity accumulating prior to this (as the university begins its projected development in 2006).

• National data show that biomedical research lends itself to the highest volume of IP generation, together with research in computer science and associated data and communications equipment, These strong areas of IP generation are a direct match for the intended areas of University focus. Impact Economics thus believes that the IP generation potential of the university will likely be higher than the numbers quantified above.

Page 21: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Business Formation (Start-Ups)• Impact Economics projects that by 2015 the

University may generate between 8 and 13 start-up enterprises (that year) with direct employment ranging from 240 to 380 jobs.

• This depends, however, on the university being structured in a manner conducive to innovation and entrepreneurship.

• The upside potential for job creation will be higher for several reasons:– The university will be an ongoing operation

so the above figures represent only an annual snapshot.

– The above figures are for direct employment and the university, its research and spin-off companies will also generate substantial indirect employment in the economy via the multiplier effect.

– If one or two of the university-related start-ups achieves a high level of success (as has occurred with some previous University of Minnesota start-ups), then impacts will likely be many orders of magnitude higher.

The Star Tribune newspaper publishes a list of the 100 largest public companies in Minnesota. Nineteen of these 100 companies were founded by U of M IT alumni, including:

•ADC TelecommunicationsASV Inc.August TechnologyCNS Inc.CeridianCompex TechnologiesCyberOptics Corp.Datalink Corp.Digital RiverDonaldson CompanyFastenalHawkins Inc.MGI PharmaMTS SystemsMedtronicPemstarPentairPassis MedicalRTW Inc

Page 22: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

• Start-up Employment, Output and Indirect Impacts

– IMPLAN input/output multipliers used for projections

– Two sectors modeled relevant to the Minnesota and Rochester-area economies that are likely to see spin-off activity– Sector 302 “Electronic Computer Manufacturing” and Sector 375 “Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing”

– For computer manufacturing the employment multiplier is 5.5 and the output multiplier is 2.0.  For medical devices the employment multiplier is 2.7, and the output multiplier is 1.8

Business Formation (Start-Ups)Top US Corporate Patent Classes are

Well Matched to the Planned Focus of the University in Rochester

1 Surgical instruments2 Biology of multi-cellular organisms3 Surgery: light, thermal and electronic applications4 Surgery: application, storage and

collection5 Prostheses6 Computer and digital processing7 Data processing8 Special receptacle or package9 Telephone communications10 Communications: directive radio

wave11 Chemistry: molecular biology and

microbiology

Page 23: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Entity Primary Industry 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Total

3M Innovative Products Company Multiple (diversified), including health and biomedical 308 313 377 410 371 1779

Individually Owned Patents Multiple 335 295 293 322 254 1499

IBM Computing and related equipment 206 219 209 204 214 1052

Medtronic Biomedical devices and equipment 131 101 103 109 105 549

Seagate Technology LLC Computing and related equipment 18 89 121 122 129 479

Sci-Med Life Systems Biomedical devices and equipment 80 71 75 85 68 379

Cardiac Pacemakers Biomedical devices and equipment 41 65 86 93 74 359

Honeywell International Automation and control equipment 11 69 74 81 124 359

ADC Telecommunications Telecommunications infrastructure equipment 15 23 46 74 75 233

Micron Technology Computing and related equipment 19 46 56 39 34 194

Ecolab Commercial cleaning services 27 36 42 45 41 191

University of Minnesota Multiple 43 36 37 36 38 190

Unisys Computing and related equipment 20 23 26 28 53 150

Imation Removable data storage products 27 32 26 30 32 147

General Mills Food processing 25 32 29 15 20 121

Rosemount Measurement instrumentation 17 13 22 43 21 116

Donaldson Company Filtration and exhaust systems 23 25 21 21 15 105

Mayo Foundation Biomedical research, products and devices 17 20 21 26 20 104

Augustine Medical Biomedical devices and equipment 22 27 20 16 1 86

Honeywell Inc. Multiple, electronics and controls 38 24 11 8 5 86

Eastman Kodak Company Biomedical imaging equipment 13 8 27 12 22 82

Parker Hughes Institute Biomedical, cancer drug development 3 18 27 16 12 76

Seagate Technology Inc. Computing and related equipment 57 10 4 4 1 76

Cargill Inc. Agricultural and food processing 18 14 15 10 9 66

LSI Logic Corporation Computing and related equipment 13 6 10 11 17 57

Leading Patent Generating Entities in Minnesota

Page 24: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Business Formation (Start-Ups)Impact of Business Start-Ups Based on Employment ProjectionsSectors = Computer Manufacturing and Medical Device ManufacturingDirect Employment Projected at the 240 and 380 Job LevelsEmployment (Jobs) Impact

SectorDirect Employment

GeneratedEmployment Multiplier Total Employment

(Direct + Indirect + Induced)

Computer Mfg. 240 5.547461 1331.4

Medical Device Mfg. 240 2.673865 641.7

Computer Mfg. 380 5.547461 2108.0

Medical Device Mfg. 380 2.673865 1016.1

Output (Economic) Impact

SectorMN Output (millions)

MN Employment

Output Per Job

New Jobs in Sector

New Output in Sector(millions)

Output Multiplier

Total Additional

Output

Computer Mfg.

$5,735.509 8,136 $704,964 240 $169.189 2.040719 $345,267,321

Medical Device Mfg.

$1,655.351 6,862 $241,234 240 $57.896 1.826062 $105,722,188

Computer Mfg.

$5,735.509 8,136 $704,964 380 $267.883 2.040719 $546,673,259

Medical Device Mfg.

$1,655.351 6,862 $241,234 380 $91.669 1.826062 $167,393,464

Page 25: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Research impacts have the potential to vary from those estimated. Impact Economics estimates that the following impacts of the expanded University of Minnesota Rochester are reasonable for 2015:

University research volume (annual) $20 million

Faculty conducting research 65

Support staff 196

Invention disclosures (annual) 9+

Patents issued (annual) 4+

Start-up enterprises (annual) 6-8

Direct jobs in start-up enterprises (annual) 180+

Total jobs related to start-ups (including indirect) 600+

Total output related to start-ups (direct and indirect) > $100 million

These are point in time impacts for a single year (2015). Economic impacts would be cumulative, accruing year after year as additional research funds are brought in, innovations made, and businesses started.

Page 26: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Impact of Higher Education

• Skilled human capital has been identified by economists as the most important determinant of economic growth in the 21st century economy.

• The key economic impact of higher education comes via “productivity increases”.

• By gaining advanced education (especially in technical and scientific disciplines) an individual’s knowledge and skills are enhanced.

• When applied in the workplace this enables higher levels of productivity to be achieved (in addition to other key benefits such as higher levels of creativity and innovation).

Page 27: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Impact of Higher Educationon Productivity

• Impact Economics used net present value analysis to project the potential impact of productivity increases in the Minnesota economy likely to be driven by the University’s programs. Based on the projected size of the University of Minnesota Rochester, it is reasonable to expect that the net present value of productivity gains to the Minnesota economy generated by graduates of the institution will likely be in the range of $30-60 million per year of higher education gained (for the total enrollment).

Page 28: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Private Returns to Education

• In addition to generating societal economic returns, higher education also provides economic benefits for individual Minnesotans. These personal economic benefits can be clearly seen through the earnings differentials that increase as higher education level increases, and in the internal rate of return (IRR) on a university education.

Page 29: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

Less Than HS Diploma

High School Diploma

Some College, No Degree

Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Master's Degree

Doctorate Degree

Professional Degree

After-Tax Income Taxes

$95,700

$79,400

$59,500

$49,900

$37,600

$35,700

$30,800

$21,600

Source: US Census Bureau, 2004

Median Earnings and Tax Payments by Level of Education, 2003.

Page 30: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

0.741

1.17 1.23

1.731.98

2.65

3.36

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Less ThanHS Diploma

High SchoolDiploma

SomeCollege, No

Degree

AssociateDegree

Bachelor'sDegree

Master'sDegree

DoctorateDegree

ProfessionalDegree

Ear

ning

s R

atio

Expected Lifetime Earnings Relative to High School Graduates, by Education Level

Page 31: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Private Returns to Minnesotansof Higher Education Gained

• Impact Economics used US Census Bureau figures for average lifetime earnings to estimate increased personal income potentials for Minnesotans enrolling in University of Minnesota Rochester programs.

• On a rolling year-to-year basis, it is found that those graduating from the Rochester university programs would likely increase their collective combined lifetime earnings by between $1 billion and $2 billion.

• National data for land grant universities indicate that 66% of students from state universities will stay and work in the university’s home state for a significant period of time – based on this it may be assumed that the potential is there for between $0.66 billion and $1.32 billion in personal lifetime earnings capture for Minnesotans on an annual graduating class basis.

• Overall these data show that by enrolling in the new university students will gain a two-times increase in their annual lifetime earnings on average.

Page 32: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Outreach and Public Service

• Research shows education level to be highly correlated with volunteerism and public service.

• Land grant university extension operations found to be especially relevant in 21st century innovation driven economy.

Page 33: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Additional Impacts• Increased retention of skilled high-school

graduates• Attraction of increased volumes of visitors to the

community, coming to attend special events, seminars and educational programs at the university in its specialized subject areas

• Increasing the reputation and recognition of Rochester as a hotbed of not only technology development and application, but also advanced education in bioscience and technology.

• Recruitment of personnel to technology-based companies and institutions in Minnesota helped by having a high quality advanced and continuing education institution available.

Page 34: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Additional Impacts• With a strong focus on biosciences and biomedical research,

combined with the local presence and collaboration of the Mayo Clinic, it is likely that the university will be at the forefront of advanced biomedical discoveries. Biomedical products have the potential to prevent or cure diseases and sustain human health, quality of life and worker productivity. Economic benefits result from this in terms of healthcare costs prevented and prevention of lost workforce productivity due to illness or injury.

• The university may also serve to help increase clinical care volumes at Mayo. A significant portion of Mayo’s patient population is attracted to the Clinic because of its research leadership and to access experimental clinical protocols. The university’s biosciences research, particularly in translational and clinical research, may add to Rochester’s attractiveness for patients especially since it is expected that Mayo, the U of M Medical School and the Minnesota Partnership for Medical Genomics will be active partners in the university’s research programs.

Page 35: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Conclusions• The expanded University of Minnesota Rochester will be a

positive investment for the state – providing between a three and eight fold return on the states investment.

• The University will significantly strengthen and build Minnesota’s position in the modern technology-driven 21st Century economy.

• The University effectively leverages, and builds upon, the existing strengths of the Minnesota and SE Minnesota economies. It emphasizes pragmatic R&D aimed at generating innovation-based economic development, and will help to meet demand for skilled human capital in key technology growth fields and strategic employment sectors.

• By focusing on advanced R&D and associated technological and bioscience education the University will fill a unique opportunity – working to complement other higher education institutions in the state, rather than directly competing with them.

Page 36: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Conclusions• Backward Linkage Impacts

– Construction of expanded facilities: 121 jobs and $98.3 million in total economic impact (2.2 ROI)

– Operations: 2015 (full size) 261 direct jobs and 375 indirect jobs via institutional spending. $90.4 million in annual spending impacts. (1.5 times ROI on operating expenditures).

• Forward Linkage Impacts– Between $30 and $60 million (per year of higher education gained) for the

Minnesota Economy through net present value of productivity increases realized through higher education gained at the university. (Added to spending impacts this increases operational ROI to between 2.0 and 2.5)

– The University is estimated to attract between $18 million and $22 million in external funds to support advanced research programs on campus. ($276,000 to $337,400 per faculty member).

– Research to produce innovations expected to generate between 8 and 13 start-up enterprises in 2015, with direct employment ranging from 240 to 380 jobs. Employment and output multiplier effects will be significant. At the 240 direct jobs level between 642 and 1,331 total jobs would be generated in Minnesota and between $105.7 and $345.3 million in total economic output. This increases the operational ROI to between 3.7 and 8.1.

– Advanced education will provide graduates with a two-times increase in their average annual lifetime earnings, equating to an increase of between $0.66 billion and $1.32 billion in personal lifetime earnings capture for Minnesotans occurring on an annual graduating class basis.

Page 37: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

Conclusions• It is the opinion of Impact Economics LP that the University

represents an eminently logical strategic move for Minnesota.• The state is in competition with other technology-based

economies in the US and overseas and it is critically important that Minnesota invest wisely to secure maximum returns from its current and developing assets.

• Organizations such as the Mayo Clinic and IBM have major operations in multiple states and they can choose to direct their R&D and investment resources to where the best opportunities present themselves. A substantial volume of data support the fact that a research university is a critically important catalyst for building sustainable R&D and innovation-based economies, and without the expansion of the University of Minnesota Rochester it is likely that existing assets in Rochester may be slowly lost to competing states and the substantial potential for technology-based economic development in SE Minnesota left unrealized.

Page 38: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

What others say…Research centers and institutions are indisputably the most important factor in incubating high-tech industries. A side effect of the technical capability and scientific research activities is the training and education of the skilled labor that will be critical to the expansion and reinforcement of regional high-tech industries.

R. DeVol (1999) “Americas High Tech Economy”. The Milken Institute

Few institutions have more to offer in propelling economic development on both a national and local basis that our nation’s colleges and universities. They are the creators and disseminators of knowledge and understanding that can help address urban challenges. As leading institutions in their communities, they are powerful economic drivers, technology centers, employers, developers and investors.

R. Rosan, 2002. “The Key Role of Universities in Our Nation’s Economic Growth and Urban Revitalization”.

University research is a powerful stimulus for economic development producing measurable increases in GDP and employment. More importantly, university research is shown to exert a dynamic and continuing impact on underlying productivity of the economy, which carries forward into the future.

F. Martin and M. Trudeau. “The Economic Impact of University Research”.

Page 39: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

What Others Say…Premier universities are at the heart of just about every high-tech success story…

•Silicon Valley in California developed around the universities of Stanford and Berkeley. In 1996, more than half of the $100 billion income from the economy of Silicon Valley came from companies started by Stanford graduates and faculty.In 1997 the Bank of Boston Economics Department issued a report “MIT: The Impact of Innovation” that described the economic benefits flowing from the university. The report emphasized the creation of 14,000 jobs in Cambridge alone at companies founded by MIT faculty and graduates. Throughout Massachusetts it was found that over 1,000 businesses were started by MIT graduates employing more than 125,000.Research Triangle Park (supported by Duke University, University of North Carolina, and North Carolina State University is another success story. Today the park contains more than 100 companies employing more than 36,000. Major companies located in the park now include Motorola, Nortel, DuPont, IBM, Harris Microelectronics and SAS.The University of Texas is credited with contributing to the development of more then 600 high technology companies in the Austin area and the business corridor into Dallas.

Statewide Office of Budget and Institutional Research, Alaska. July 2002.

Page 40: Rochester Higher Education Development Committee Projections of Economic Impact The Role and Impacts of a Signature Research University in Southeast Minnesota

6 Jaycee DrivePittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15243

Telephone: 412-276-1986Fax: 412-276-1934

www.impacteconomics.comE-mail: [email protected]