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Robust performer in times of market turmoil
Gazprom Investor Day
February 2009
1
Disclaimer
1
This presentation has been prepared by OJSC Gazprom (the “Company”), and comprises the slides for a presentation to investors concerning the Company. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares or other securities representing shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or any other material discussed at any presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation should not be treated as giving investment advice. Care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this presentation are accurate, and that the opinions expressed are fair and reasonable. However, the contents of this presentation have not been verified by the Company. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its members, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in or discussed at this presentation. None of the Company or any of their respective members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts, statements regarding the Company’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the industry in which the Company operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, the risks and uncertainties to be set forth in the prospectus, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The Company cautions you that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods.
The information and opinions contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. No person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.
By attending the presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
2
Today’s Speakers
Corporate and Financial Overview Andrey KruglovDeputy Chairman of Gazprom Management CommitteeHead of the Department for Finance and Economics
Strategy
Global Energy Markets
Ukraine Dispute
Vlada RusakovaMember of Gazprom Management CommitteeHead of Strategic Development Department
Alexander MedvedevDeputy Chairman of Gazprom Management CommitteeDirector General of Gazprom Export
Sergey KupriyanovPress Secretary of Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee
Part 1. Strategy
Vlada Rusakova
Member of Gazprom Management Committee Head of Strategic Development Department
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
4
Price Conditions Included in Long-Term Strategy
Source: CERA, Company data.
Brent(US$)
Nominal oil prices
Actual oil pricesOptimistic forecast zone
Forecast zone for long-term planning
$ 80
$ 60
$ 45
$ 45.5 (mean value of actual oil prices)
Gazprom’s long-term strategy is based on conservative price scenarios
$ 35
55
Global Energy Consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008.
Economic cycle influences short-term growth rate of global energy consumption
Declines in economic activity do not influence long-term tendencies of energy consumption growth
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Energy Consumption Rate Gas Consumption RateGDP Growth Rate
(%)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Energy Consumption Gas Consumption
(mln toe)
Rate of Energy Consumption and GDP Growth Global Energy Consumption
Global energy consumption grows at a stable rate in the long-term
6
Gas
Other
Nuclear
Hydro
Oil
Coal
Coal
OilHydro
NuclearOther
Gas
6
Projections of Global Energy Demand
Volumes of Global Energy Consumption
Global gas demand will continue to growStructure of Energy Consumption
Gas competitive advantagesLarge reserves baseDeveloped infrastructureEnvironmentally clean type of fuel
Energy demand Changes in energy demand
Factors taken into account in short-term planning
Factors taken into account in long-term planning
2007 2030E
Population increase, global economy growth
Energy efficiency and energy saving
2007
2030E
21%
22%-25%
7
New Markets 7 %
Domestic Market 49 %
European Market 29 %
CIS and Baltic States Market
15 %
Target Markets 2020
Gazprom’s guaranteed contracts and agreements underpin a significant part of future gas demand
15%
8 %
68%
New volumesContracted volumes and existing agreements
88
Specifics of Gas Industry
Gas business is characterised by
Long life span of production capacities
High capital coefficient
Slow response of production processes
Consumer contracts ~ 25 – 30 years
Field development period ~ 30 years
Life time of gas transportation facilities ~ 50 years
Long-term planning – necessity of gas business
99Notes:(1) STI – strategic target indicators.
Planning Process in Gazprom
Strategic planning
Short-term planning
Medium-term planning
Investment Program and Budget for
1 YEAR
BUDGETFOR 3 YEARS
STI (1) OF FIRSTLEVEL
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF GAZPROM
STI OF SECOND LEVEL
INVESTMENT PROGRAMFOR 3 YEARS
BUDGETFOR 1 YEAR
INVESTMENT PROGRAMFOR 1 YEAR
List of priorityprojects
Indices of the Program
MONITORING AND CONTROLLING (INDICES, STI, KPI)
Factindices/KPI
Factindices/KPI
Feedback
KPI
Current planning to meet long-term goals
Investment Program and Budget for
3 YEARS
Program for10 YEARS development
Development Strategy for 25 YEARS
10
60
40
Gazprom – leader in global gas business
C3+D165.8
C220.4
A+B+C147.7
Accumulated Production
14.7
Largest Gas Supply System in the World
Gas Business: Main Factors of Success
Gazprom’s Reserves – 30 tcm(1), (2)
Total Russian Resources(1)
17
83
World Russia
Total: 249 tcm
Note:(1) Source: company data, 2007(2) АВС 1, excluding new licences.
11
Expected Gas Production and Capital Expenditure Programs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2015E 2020E
Currently Existing Projects New in Nadym-Pur-Taz Region
Shelf Yamal Peninsula
Gas Production
≥ 620 bcm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006-2010E 2011-2015E 2016-2020E
Exploration Production Transportation Processing Other
Capital Expenditure (Annual Average)
(bcm) (Bn RR p.a.)
Gazprom continues investing in business development
12
80
130
180
230
280
330
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oil Prices vs. Upstream Capital Costs Indices
Source: CERA, Gazprom.
100
Significant correlation between oil prices and capital costs means a reduction in CAPEX as a result of falling oil prices
Market terms for CAPEX reduction
Upstream Capital Costs Index (left axis) Oil Price, $/bbl (right axis)
($/bbl)(Index)
13
Major existing pipelinesFields
Yamal-Europe pipeline (Torzhok-Germany section)SRTO-Torzhok pipelineExpansion of gas transportation system in the Urengoi regionKasimovskoye UGSF-CS Voskresensk pipelineCS Sokhranovka-CS Oktyabrskaya pipelinePochinki-Izobilnoye pipeline (Petrovsk-Frolovo-Izobilnoyesection)Gryazovets-Vyborg pipelineNord Stream projectSouth Stream projectMurmansk-Volkhov pipelineCaspian Costal pipelinePochinki-Gryazovets pipelineBovanenkovo-Ukhta-Torzhok pipeline
Major Projects Development
Transportation:SRTO – Torzhok(CS(1) at Ukhta-Gryazovets section)
SRTO-Ural(CS at Right Khetta-Tayozhnayasection)
Pochinki-GryazovetsNord StreamYamal-Center(Bovanenkovo-Ukhta and Ukhta-Gryazovets sections)
Murmansk-Volkhov
Production:Zapolyarnoye field (Valanginian deposits)
Bovanenkovskoe field (Senoman-Aptian deposits)
Urengoiskoye field(Achimovsk formation)
Shtokmanovskoye field
Severo-Kamennomisskoyefield
Priority ProjectsPriority Projects
Notes:(1) Compressor Stations.
14
IGP IGP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2003 2007
Gazprom IGP
14
Independent Gas Producers (IGP)
Russian gas industry development program till year 2030 prioritisesfields development
(bcm)
Gas Resources in Russia (2007)
Gas Production in Russia
Gas Consumption in Russia
(bcm)
0
150
300
450
2008E 2020E
IGP IGP
Increase of Independent Producers’ Market Share
2008E 2020E
63%
IGP
21%
Source: Company data.
20-30%19.6%
State UndistributedFund
16%
15
Current Gazprom Group Structure
Notes:* Under construction.
Improved management and transparency
GAZPROM
PRODUCTION
TRANSPORTATION
STORAGE
PROCESSING
SALES
TRANSITION FROM THE STRUCTURE BASED ON TERRITORIAL PRINCIPLE TO BUSINESS ORIENTED
DIVERSIFICATION
Production, transportation,
processing, storage
Production
Distribution
Production, transportation,
storage
GAZPROM
GAS BUSINESS
GAZPROM ENERGETICA *
GAZPROMNEFT
16
9.5%
Oil Business Development
Gazprom Neft – high business efficiencyOil Production(1) Refining(1) Gazprom Neft Share in Total
Gazprom Production(2)
(mln t per year) (mln t per year)
Financial Results
Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) – 35% (FY2007)
EBITDA per Barrel – 32,2 USD / bbl (9m 2008)
Reserves Replacement Ratio - 247% (FY2007)Active development of both Gazprom and Gazprom Neft oil reserves
Investment program for oil business development is covered by cash flow of Gazprom Neft
Upstream and Downstream JVs with domestic and international majors
15%
2007
2020E
50 55
1622916
46,3
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2015E 2020ENew FieldsGazprom's Oil FieldsGazprom Neft's Oil Fields
28 31 40
17
36
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2015E 2020ERussia Abroad
46
7593
2848
76
Notes:(1) Including Gazprom Neft share in equity investees (2) Combined crude oil, natural gas, gas condensate
17
1 3501 605
1 001
0
600
1 200
1 800
2007 2015E 2020E
Power Generation Sector
Generation Capacity Under Control
12,7
35,4
44,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
Major Rational for Entering Energy Business
Additional value created
Further vertical integration
Attractive levels of margin in the sector
Revenue stabilisation
Entering into related businesses
Diversification of product base
Significant sector upside
Liberalisation of electricity market
Guaranteed and growing demand for electricity
(1)(GW)
Notes:(1) OGK-2, OGK-6, Mosenergo, TGK-1.
Electricity Demand
(Bn kilowatt-hour)
(1)
2007 2008E 2014E-2020E
Expected efficiency growth
18
82%
4%14%
Expected segmentation of group’s net income by 2020
Gas Business – the Number One Priority for Gazprom
2020
Oil PowerGas
Part 2. Global Energy Markets
Alexander Medvedev
Deputy Chairman of the Management Committee of Gazprom, General Director of Gazprom Export
20
International Growth Strategy
Expand export markets’ share, build strong positions in all energy markets
Securing Export Revenues
Securing Export Revenues
Improving Reliability andFlexibility of Gas
Supplies
Improving Reliability andFlexibility of Gas
Supplies
Developing International Upstream Business
Developing International Upstream Business
European MarketEuropean Market
FSU MarketFSU Market
Market and Product Diversification
Market and Product Diversification
• Nord Stream• South Stream• Prikaspiysky pipeline• UGSFs
Sustaining Market Share• Long-term contracts with take-or-pay
obligations as a base • New opportunities in liberalised market
(gas trading, portfolio optimisation)Transition to Market Principles• Market pricing• Access to end-customers• Minimisation of transit risks
• Vertically Integrated Oil Business (Gazprom Neft & NIS) • LNG • Electricity sales• Carbon trade
• Latin America• Africa • Asia
21
156
162
169 170179
280
409
269262192
145
150
155
160
165
170
2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
(bcm)
0
100
200
300
400
500
US$/mcm
Volume Average European Price
Europe: Traditional Key Market
Gazprom Other Suppliers
Strong position in the European marketGazprom Group European Sales Prices and
Volumes (1)
0100200300400500600700
2005 2010E 2020E
Local Production Net Import
European Market (2)
bcm p.a.
Gazprom Gas in European Consumption (3)
2007 2020E
Austria 2027
Croatia 2010
Italy 2020
Long-term oil-indexed take-or-pay contracts
Gas supply contracts signed and extended during the last 2 years
Stable Revenue Source
Romania 2030
Slovakia 2028
Slovenia 2017
26% 35%
(1) Source: Factual data – company Annual report, Forecasts – management estimates.(2) Source: International Energy Agency, October 2008.(3) Source: Cedigaz and company forecast. Includes only exported volumes.
22
FSU: Transition to Market Principles
Major Cooperation Projects in Central Asia
Market adjustment to European prices
Gazprom Group FSU Sales Prices and Volumes (1)
(US$/mcm)(bcm)
101
77
10188
7511189
61
159
198
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E0
50
100
150
200
250
Volume Average FSU Price
Negotiated formula-based pricing in sales and purchase contracts with all FSU countries
Gradual transition to parity with European net-back sales prices by 2011 (already accomplished in trade with Baltic states)
Transit agreements based on market principles
Payment discipline reinforced with Ukraine in the new 10-year SPA agreement
Topical Issues
Narrowing the Gap between European and FSU Prices
Gas purchases from Turkmenistan: could reach 70-80 bcm annually from 2009 to 2028
Long-term gas purchases from Uzbekistan from 2003 to 2012, could reach 30bcm from 2010
Cooperation in modernisation of gas transport capacity “Central Asia – Centre” pipeline
Agreement for processing and marketing of Karachaganak gas from 2007 to 2022, volumes over 7bcm from 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
%
Average European Price Average FSU Price
(1) Source: Factual data – company Annual report, Forecasts – management estimates.
23
functional1980601(2)10(4)Beltransgas
functional20070.871.2Haidachfunctional19931.04.8Rehdenfunctional20050.250.3Humbly Grove
(4)Bcm
on time2011>1600(5)>30(5)CCP(7)
~902(6)
1223
1213
1258(3)
1538(2)
Length, km
on timeon time
functional
functionalneeds upgr.
Status
201155Nord Stream201531-47(5)South Stream
200316Blue Stream
199933Yamal – Europe1967143(1)Ukraine
Start-up
Capacity, bcmaProjectOperational and prospective pipelines and
main UGSFs in Europe
Diversification of transportation routes and usage of underground gas storage facilities
Increasing Efficiency and Flexibility of Gas Deliveries
Operational pipelines
Prospective pipelines
E
Humbly Grove
Rehden
Haidach
Main underground gas storage facilities
(4) Capacity available to Gazprom.(5) Preliminary data. (6) Subsea part (estimates).(7) Caspian Costal Pipeline.
(1) Estimates of Ukrtransgas.(2) Longest transportation distance.(3) Belarus + Poland.
24
Increasing Efficiency and Flexibility of Gas Deliveries: Nord Stream
Notes:(1) Offshore section, two pipelines, preliminary estimates.
Guaranteed export gas supplies through diversification of the transportation routes
NORWAY
SWEDEN
DENMARK
GERMANYPOLAND
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
RUSSIA
ESTONIA
FINLAND VyborgBaltic Sea
North Sea
Nord Stream
Greifswald
Ownership Structure
2011 (first pipeline)Operational Start
55 bcmCapacity (two pipelines)
1,223kmLength
~ EUR 7.4 bln (1)Capital Investment
Tallinn
Helsinki
St. Peterburg
Novgorod
Goteborg
København
Stockholm
HamburgBremen
Aalborg
Esbjerg
Ringkøbing
BELARUS
Gasunie
E.ON 20%Gazprom 51%
BASF 20%
9%
25
Increasing Efficiency and Flexibility of Gas Deliveries: South Stream
end of 2014 - 2015Operational Start31 – 47 bcmCapacity
1300km to Austria, + 990km to GreeceLength
EUR 15-20 blnEstimated Capital Investmentend of 2014 - 2015Operational Start
31 – 47 bcmCapacity902kmLength
EUR 4 bln +Estimated Capital Investment
50%Eni S.p.A
50%Gazprom
Participants
Q.= 31 bcm/year
Russia
Onshore Part Offshore Part
Guaranteed export gas supplies through diversification of the transportation routes
GreeceHungary
Negotiations with Austria and Slovenia under way
SerbiaBulgariaIntergovernmental Agreements signed with
26
Market and Product Diversification
Power generation projects in Europe as added value to the long-term gas sales
Power trading operations in key European markets
Power generation projects in Europe as added value to the long-term gas sales
Power trading operations in key European markets
Gas supplies to end-users through Gazprom’s subsidiaries and affiliate companies in UK, France, Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, etc.
Other regions under considerations
Gas supplies to end-users through Gazprom’s subsidiaries and affiliate companies in UK, France, Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, etc.
Other regions under considerations
Liquefaction projects: Sakhalin-2 and Shtokman
Spot LNG operations
Building LNG portfolio from other projects
Liquefaction projects: Sakhalin-2 and Shtokman
Spot LNG operations
Building LNG portfolio from other projects
Gazprom trading companies registered in all European gas hubsCurrent spot trading activities in UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium Trade volume increase from 4 to 25 bcm in last 4 years
Gazprom trading companies registered in all European gas hubsCurrent spot trading activities in UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium Trade volume increase from 4 to 25 bcm in last 4 years
Worldwide activitiesCDM/JI projects origination and portfolio management
EUA/CER swap deals and sales in Europe
Worldwide activitiesCDM/JI projects origination and portfolio management
EUA/CER swap deals and sales in Europe
Power
Gas Trading
New Regions
LNG
CO2
NEW MARKETS and SEGMENTS to
INCREASE VALUE and DIVERSIFY RISKS
NEW MARKETS and SEGMENTS to
INCREASE VALUE and DIVERSIFY RISKS
Asia-PacificNew export markets for Russian pipeline gas and LNG
North AmericaDevelopment of gas M&T business including LNG operations support
Asia-PacificNew export markets for Russian pipeline gas and LNG
North AmericaDevelopment of gas M&T business including LNG operations support
Retail
27
Market and Product Diversification: LNG – Sakhalin-2 and Shtokman
Shtokman Project Sakhalin-2 Project
71.0(3)Gas production, bcm p.a.31.0(2)Gas condensate reserves, mln t
2013Start of pipeline deliveries Project Outlook
Project Potential
7.5 mln t2014
3.7(2)Gas reserves, tcm
Start of LNG supply LNG plant capacity
Notes:(1) Gazprom will continue to hold 100% shares of Sevmorneftegas and all rights for marketing.(2) Russian reserves classification ABC1+C2.(3) Can be potentially extended to 95 bcm p.a.
Phase 1 Participants (1)
Total 25%
Statoil Hydro24%
Gazprom 51%
0
20
40
60
2013E 2015E 2020E
bcm
9.6 mln tLNG plant capacity
90,000 bpdCurrent oil production capacity (yearly production)
>170(2)Extractable reserves (crude oil, gas condensate, mln t)
February 2009LNG plant start-upProject Outlook
Project Potential
Japan, Korea, USA
March 2009
>600(2)Extractable reserves (gas, bcm)
First LNG cargo
100% LNG contracted
LNG LNG LNG
Project Shareholders
Gazprom 50%+1Shell 27.5%-1
Mitsubishi10%
Mitsui12.5%
LNG LNG LNG
28
Building International Upstream Business
— Gazprom’s traditional regions.
— New regions with upstream positions.
Latin AmericaVenezuela
• Exploration: • Urumako-1, Urumako-2• Oil projects of National Oil
Consortium• Certification: Ayacucho-3 • MoU with PDVSA on Blanquilla Este project
(LNG)
Bolivia• Exploration:
• Acero gas project • Sunchal gas project
AsiaIndia
• Exploration:• Block 26 (PSA with GAIL)
Vietnam• Exploration: Blocks 112, 113, 129-132 (JV with Petrovietnam)
AfricaLibya
• Production: 49% in oil concessions С96 and С97 • Exploration:
• Licence area 19 (PSA, blocks 1-4) • Licence area 64 (PSA, blocks 1-3)
Nigeria• МоU with Ministry of Energy/NNOC
Algeria• Exploration: Licence area El Assel(blocks 236b, 404a, 405b1)
Strong focus on geographical expansion and building upstream positions globally
Part 3. Ukraine Dispute
Sergei Kupriyanov
Press Secretary of the Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee
30
Reliable Gas Deliveries to Europe
30
40 Years(1) of Impeccable Operating Track Record
August 19981973 August 1991 1993 1994
Russian Financial Crisis
World Oil Crisis Break-up of the Soviet Union
Russian Parliamentary Coup
Rouble Crashes
Source: Gazprom, International Energy Association, Loanware and Bondware.(1) Total gas sales in foreign markets excluding FSU.
bcm
Despite any crisis Gazprom has always and will in the future fulfil its export obligations
020406080
100120140160180200
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
31
Progress in Gas Negotiations in 2009
32
Secured Gas Transit to Europe
Ukraine resumes gas deliveries to Europe.20
Jan 2009
Two long-term separate contracts of Russian gas transit to European customers and gas delivery to Ukrainian customers in 2009-2019 are signed between Gazprom and Naftogaz.
Transit charge: USD1.7 per 1000 cu m per 100 km in 2009, transition to market European price starting from 2010.
Gas delivery price to Ukraine: common European price formula with reduction factor as of 0.8 for 2009, transition to market European price starting from 2010.
Separate long-term contracts of Russian gas transit to European customers and gas delivery to Ukrainian customers are additionalguarantee of security of energy supply to European customers.
19 Jan 2009
Agreement which provides for a transition of Russia-Ukraine gas relationship to transparent European gas pricing principles starting from 2009 is reached. Negotiations were held by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Prime Minister Julia Timoshenko.
18 Jan 2009
Guaranteed Gas Deliveries to Europe
BELARUS
UKRAINE
BLACK SEA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
SWEDEN
DENMARK
BULGARIA
ALBANIA
TURKEY
GEORGIA
CASPIAN SEA
HUNGARY
ROMANIA
POLAND
NO
RWAY
FINLAND
NORWEGIAN SEA
GREECE
BARENTS SEA
LITHUANIA
CZECH
SLOVAKIA
BOSNIA & HERZ.CROATIA
MONTENEGRO
MOLDOVA
StockholmOslo
Bergen
Polyarnyy
Murmansk
København
L’viv
OdesaChişnäu
PoltavaKharkov
Zaporizhzhia
Mariupol
NovorossiyskBucrueştiPleven
Sofia
TiranëMACEDONIA
Kumanovo
Athina
Thessaloniki
Craiova
Braşov
Bräila
Suceava
Istanbul
Izmir
Koceali
Eskişeher
Samsun
Erzurum
ŞanliurfaMersinKayseri
TrabzonHopa ARMENIA
Sochi
AzerbaijanAnakara
Sokhumi
K’ut’alsi
IRAN
AZERBAIJAN
Baku
TabrizArdabil
RUSSIA
Krasnodar
Rostov-na-Donu
Groznyy
Elista
Astrakhan
Elista
Stavropol
Akhtubinsk
Akhtubinsk
Novoshakhtinsk
MOSCOW
Kolomna
Ryazan’TulaOrel
Lugansk
Bryansk
NovgorodNizhniy
Novogord
Tcherepovets
Gryazovets
Perm
Arkhangel’sk
Syktyvkar
Samara
Zlatoust
Ekaterinburg
Vorkuta
Sankt-PeterburgHelsinkiTurku
Vantaa
Espoo
Vyborg
Trondheim
Gotland
Jönköping
KИïB
Minsk
OrshaDaugavpils
Liepäga
Klaipeda
KaliningradGdańsk
KaunasBydgoszcz
Szczecin
Olsztyn
Slupsk
WroclawWarszawa
BudapestAUSTRIA
Torzhok
Ukhta
Gryazovets
Kruzenshternskoye
Shtokmanovskoye Bovanenkovskoye
Ukrainian dispute settlement
Nord Stream
Yamal-Europe
Ukraine
South Stream
Blue Stream
Part 4. Corporate and Financial Overview
Andrey Kruglov
Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee Head of the Department for Finance and Economics
34
Operating Update and Outlook for 2009
300
350
400
450
500
550
2007 2008E 2009E
13 12 14
444643
2007 2008E 2009EGazprom Gazprom Neft
Gas Production Total Gas Sales Volumes (1)
Oil and Gas Condensate Production (2)
(1) Head company data, management estimates. (2) Including Gazprom Neft share in equity investees’ production.(3) Gazprom Neft figure for 2009 includes 3,2 mln t at Nafta Industria Serbia (NIS) refineries
Oil Refining(3)
(bcm)
(mln t)
12 12 13
26 28 31
2007 2008E 2009EGazprom Gazprom Neft
(bcm)
(mln t)
Reduction scenarios
under review
Reduction scenarios
under review
300
350
400
450
500
550
2007 2008E 2009E
Reduction scenarios
under review
Reduction scenario
under review
35
Current Market Conditions
Brent and Urals Oil Prices Forecast
Positive Effect on Revenue from Hypothetical 1% Rouble Weakening (3)
Current budget: $50 Urals
Alternative budget scenarios: $40, $30, $25 Urals
Short term resistance to oil price volatility due to long-term contracts structure
Assuming $40 Urals
Total RUB depreciation from November 2008 till now is 23%(4)
Revenue and OpEx are predominantly in different currencies
(1) Budget has been approved by the Board of Directors on 23 December 2008.(2) Minister of Economic Development 2009 oil forecast as of the latest Government session on 19 January 2009. (3) Consolidated figures, preliminary results, annual 1% calculated value of rouble depreciation.(4) As of MICEX rouble exchange rate to dual currency basket from 7 November 2008 till 1 February 2009.
(US$/bbl)
20
30
40
50
60
70
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10
Brent Urals
$50(1) Urals
$41(2) Urals
Source: Bloomberg as of January 27, 2009; average of broker estimates.
$30 Urals$25 Urals
0
10
20
2009E 2010E 2011E
(RR Bn)
36
Financial Strategy in Times of Market Turmoil
Strategy Guidelines
Operating and Investment Activities Financial Activities
Debt and Borrowings
ManagementCash PoolingBudgeting
CapEx Management
Financial Investments Management
OpEx Management
Working Capital Management
Reduction of accounts receivable
Reduction of inventories
Management of accounts payable
Projects feasibility in
crisis environment
Assessment of opportunity for raising funds
Reduction of OpEx Budget scenarios
based on $25, $30 and $40 oil price
forecasts
Internal cash management
Self-funding
Execution monitoring
Projects prioritisation
Cost cutting program
Tightening of operating, investment and financial activities of the Group in the context of world economic turmoil
Optimisation of gas purchasing
Reduction of non-core activities
(advertisement, sponsorship etc.)
Reduction of financial
investments
Payments monitoring
Usage of internal finance resources
Refinancing of expensive debts
Control over Group borrowings
Optimisation of headcount
37
Natural Hedging
44% 40% 47% 52%
19% 25%23% 19%
51%
21%
37% 35% 29% 27% 27%
1.7%1.8%1.8%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
USD EUR RR Other
82% 73%62% 64%
13% 23%31% 31%
57%
33%
4%5%7%4%5% 6%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
USD EUR RR Other
19%35%
3%1% 15%2%
83%65%
81%96%99%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
USD EUR RR Other
Debt Currency Breakdown
(%)
OpEx Currency BreakdownRevenue Currency Breakdown
Investment Program Currency Breakdown
40% 41% 43% 46%
2% 1% 3% 2%
42%
2%
56%52%54%58%59%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
USD EUR RR Other
(%)
(%)
(%)
Source: Head company, management estimates.Notes: (1) Other includes GBP, BYR, JPY currencies.
(2) Other includes SEK and JPY currencies.
(1) (1)
(1) (2)
38
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008
Long-term debt (fixed interest rate) Long-term debt (floating interest rate)Short-term debt (fixed interest rate) Short-term debt (floating interest rate)
$13,3 bln$13,4 bln
Robust Debt Strategy
Debt maturity profile: focus on longer maturity
Export secured debt: keep to a minimum level(1)
Diversification of debt financing sources
Control over cost of debt
Debt-to-equity ratio of no more than 40%
Debt Strategy
Notes:(1) 2.3% as of 30 June 2008. (2) Excluding promissory notes. (3) Exchange rate as of the end of the respective period.
36,0% 26,8% 19,6%30,3% 33,9% 27,9%
14,4%
9,3% 16,6%11,6% 12,7%
10,6%
23,1%31,3% 39,1% 25,3% 18,7%
22,0%
26,6% 32,6% 24,7% 32,8% 34,7% 39,5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Н2008
Less that 1 year 1-2 years 2-5 years More that 5 years
Debt Maturity Profile (2)
(% of debt)
1H 2008: Cash Alignment with Short-Term Debt (2), (3) Debt with Fixed and Floating Rate (2), (3)
($ bln)
Cash & cash equivalents + short-term investments
Short-term debt
3939Notes: (1) Exchange rate applied as at the end of the respective period.
Balanced Approach to Managing Leverage
Improving Leverage Level
Total Debt Dynamics(1)
1,3x1,4x 1,4x
0,8x
1,4x
0,7x
11,6x
20,8x22,0x
16,0x14,6x
10,0x
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA / Interest Expenses
17,722,3
33,241,0
61,5
47,6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008
(US$ Bn)
40
Funding for Next 12 Months
> 100%148%
110%123%
99%92%
2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008 2008E
- RUB 3.8 trlnLiabilities, expenditures and investments
- RUB 90 blnFinancial borrowings
- RUB 0.5 blnBudget surplus
- RUB 3.72 trlnCash income and revenues
Cost of Debt Financing (2)
Self Funding (1)
Recent Debt Refinancing
Budget 2009*
Notes(1) Operating CF/Cash CapEx ratio.(2) Excluding promissory notes.(3) OAO Vnesheconombank.
* Non-consolidated figures. Includes only head company
4
5
6
7
8
9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008EWeighted average fixed interest rateWeighted average floating interest rateWeighted average interest rate
(%)
GAZPROM• Dec 2008 - $153 mln loan from VEB(3)
(LIBOR+5%, maturity 2009)
GAZPROM NEFT • Dec 2008 - $750mln credit line facility signed with VEB
(LIBOR+5%, maturity 2009-2010)
• Jan 2009 - $375mln loan from VEB(10,75%, maturity 2010)
41
Major lines of cost cutting
Cost Management – Strong Discipline in Place
Additional cost cuttings:
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2008* 2009*
Exploration works SalariesSocial InsuranceMarketing, audit, engineering Advertising and sponsorshipResearch and development Subsidiaries' assetsOther
0
10
20
30
40
2008* 2009*
Materials Gas for technical needs
Salaries Capital lease
Taxes Insurance
Capital repairs Other
Subsidiaries’ Overheads (1),(2)Head Company Overheads (1)
Note:* As approved by Board of Directors(1) Expenses for 2008 are converted into US$ using average 2008 exchange rate, for 2009 using the rate of RR31,9, as approved by Board of Directors, and for 2009 (due to RR weakening)
using the rate of RUB35,1, as forecasted by the Ministry of economic development.(2) Excluding a number of subsidiaries consolidated after the privatisation of OAO Gazprom, in particular, Gazprom Neft, Mosenergo, OGK-2, OGK-6, Stimul, Purgaz.
due to further RRweakening
Headcount optimisationSocial cost managementSale of non-core assets
(bn US$)
(29%)
~(10%)
(24%)(bn US$)
due to further RRweakening
~(10%)
42
Cash Pooling
Cash Pooling
Setting up internal cash management in the Russian
subsidiaries
Monitoring of subsidiaries’cashflows
Setting up international pool with foreign subsidiary companies’
participation
Mobilisation of Group’s internal funds
Optimisation of mutual settlements within the Group
Improvement of free cash management
Reduction of Group’s external borrowings
We estimate significant positive effect from cash pooling system implementation
43
Working Capital Management
7,4 7,59,0
13,116,0
19,7
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008LTM
Trade Receivables (1),(2) Accounts Receivable Turnover
Accounts receivable
Improvement of receivable turnover and prevention of liquid funds freezing:
Tightening of FSU payment discipline
Prepayment for gas delivered to Russian consumers
Gazprom reduction of prepayments to suppliers and contractors
Notes:(1) Including bad debt provisions and long-term trade receivables.(2) Exchange rate as of the end of the respective period
4,95,9
7,5
8,9
7,68,4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008LTM
(times a year)($ bln)
44
0
10
20
30
40
2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E
Investment Program – Projects Prioritization
Gazprom’ Investment Program (1) ($
bln
)
$23.5
$33.6$38.1(2)
Priority Projects for 2009
Production:
- Zapolyarnoye field
- Yamal Peninsula (Bovanenkovskoye field)
- Urengoiskoye field
- Shtokmanovskoye field
- Severo-Kamennomisskoye field
Transportation:
- Nord Stream pipeline
- Pochinki-Gryazovets pipeline
- Yamal-Center (Bovanenkovo-Ukhta and Ukhta-Gryazovets pipelines)
Notes:(1) Amounts for 2004-2007 include all capex and long-term financial investments of Gazprom Group. Amounts for 2008 include Gazprom’s investment program (CapEx and long-term financial
investment) and investment programs of Gazprom Neft, Sibur Holding and Mosenergo. Amounts for 2009 include Gazprom’s investment program and investment programs of Gazprom Neft, Mosenergo, OGK-2 and OGK-6. Amounts for 2008-2009 do not include investment programs of a number of subsidiaries consolidated after the privatisation of OAO Gazprom, in particular, Stimul, Purgaz.All CapEx and long-term financial investment figures converted in US$ at exchange rates as of the end of respective period and at the rate of RUB35.1 for 2009 according to forecasts of Russian Ministry of Economic Development.
(2) Long-term financial investments for 2007 include acquisition of Sakhalin-2, Mosenergo, Beltransgaz and power generating companies.
$26.2
2009 (budgeted) 2009E
Represents ~ 90 % of Group’s investment program
Head CompanyGazprom Group
$29.0Reduction planunder review
Transportation CapEx Gas production CapExOil and gas cond. production CapEx Refining CapExDistribution CapEx Electricity CapExOther CapEx Long-term financial investments
45
1 180 1 354
2 452 2 771
3 645
1 6992 1692 0431 9091 784
2006 2007 2008 1Q2009E 2Q2009E 3Q2009E 4Q2009E 1Q2010E 3Q2010E 2011E After 2011
Domestic Gas Market – Key Future Value Driver
22%
40%
6%6%1%
15%
10%
Power indusrty
Mettalurgy
Agro chemistry
Cement industry
Households
Utility sector
Other
Domestic Gas Sales Volumes (1),(2)
Domestic Wholesale Price Growth for Industrial Consumers (3)
Domestic Gas Sales by Consumer Types in 2008E (1)
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
2006 2007 2008E 2009E
(bcm)
Netback parity
with export sales+25%
+13%+5% +7%
+13%
+7%+6,2%
(RR/mcm)
+40%
(1) Management estimates. (2) Head company.(3) Price history – company data. The decision to increase regulated gas prices for 2009 quarterly was approved by the Government Decree №413-е/11 on December 24, 2008.
Reduction scenarios
under review
46
SupermajorCombined
Major EmergingMarkets Combined
102,6
36,6
63,053,7
39,047,8
26,717,8
46,3 47,2
23,419,931,0
23,9 20,6 19,212,1 7,7
14,6
26,8
13,3
49,1
ExxonMobil
Petrochina RoyalDutch Shell
Chevron BP Total Petrobras Sinopec ENI Gazprom Rosneft
EBITDA Net income
Gazprom - Unique Investment Opportunity(U
S$ B
n)
8,5x7,7x
5,3x6,2x 6,6x
5,4x6,6x
10,9x
4,6x3,6x 3,5x3,6x 3,5x
2,5x 2,7x
4,x2,9x
3,9x 3,9x
2,4x 2,6x 2,4x
ExxonMobil
Petrochina RoyalDutch Shell
Chevron BP Total Petrobras Sinopec ENI Gazprom Rosneft
P/E EV/EBITDA
Source: FactSet
Source: FactSet
Notes:(1) Companies ranked by market capitalisation. Source: Bloomberg as of February 2, 2009.(2) Based on financials for the last 12 months ending 2Q`2008 for Gazprom and last 12 months ending 3Q`2008 for other companies.(3) Source: companies annual reports. Includes 2007 total proved reserves. Reserve life in years based on 2007 proved reserves and 2007 production.
91 bboe(12 yrs) 80 bboe
(19 yrs)
118 bboe(33 yrs)
Total Reserves and Reserve Life(3)Last 12 Months EBITDA and Net Income – International Majors (1) (2)
$ Bn 389 260 143 127 116 107 89 84 74 32148Mkt Cap
Comparative P/E and EV/EBITDA (1)(2)
Gazprom Investor Day
6 February 2009