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RMS RMS UpdateUpdateRMS RMS
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November 4, 2004
Retail Market SubcommitteeUpdate to TAC
RMS RMS UpdateUpdateRMS RMS
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Summary
RMGRR 2004-13 – Disconnect at Premium Locations
RMGRR 2004-14 – Inadvertent Gain Process
RMGRR 2004-15 – Data Extract Variance Process
Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Household Electric Use Survey
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Retail Market Guide Revision Requests
RMGRR 2004-13 – Disconnect at Premium Locations
Incorporates the tariff charge variation among TDSP’s into the
Retail Market Guide
RMGRR 2004-14 – Inadvertent Gain Process
Identifies individual TDSP processes required to resolve
inadvertent switch situations
RMGRR 2004-15 – Data Extract Variance Process
Defines the Data Extract Variance Process including the utilization
of FasTrak to resolve agreed differences and seeking ADR
resolution for contested differences
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
28 14 314 151 1
Near Term Action Plan Timeline
September 28 - PWG Near Term Action Plan Approved
October 14 – Near Term Action Plan Submitted to
RMS
November 4 – Near Term Action Plan Submitted to TAC for ERCOT Board
Review
December 31- ERCOT Staff Finalizes Recommendations to
PWG. Market Participants Begin Making Changes
February - RMS Requested February Review
March 1 -TDSPs and ERCOT Complete System
Changes
May 1 - TDSPs and ERCOT Complete Testing
System ChangesJune 15 - Normal Start of 2005 Annual Validation
November - Normal Completion of 2005 Annual
Validation Transactions
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200
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
1. Do not replace a prior year non-default
assignment with a default assignment
A new calculation for each ESI ID is made each year
Currently: Insufficient data requires assignment to default
Residential defaults to Residential Low Winter Ratio (RESLOWR)
Commercial defaults to Business Medium Load Factor (BUSMEDLF)
Proposed: If sufficient data was available in a previous year an
assignment to default would not be made
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
2. Applying dead-bands around the specified Residential
Segment trigger point
Currently: If WR > 1.5 it is assigned to High Winter Ratio (HiWR)
Proposed: Create a dead-band around the 1.5 trigger point
Example – Assume dead-band (1.0 to 2.0)
if current assignment is RESLOWR and new WR = 1.7, would remain RESLOWR
if current assignment is RESLOWR and new WR = 2.1, would change to RESHIWR
Result - significant reduction in migration
SpringBaseFallBaseAverage
ADUseADUseADUseMaxWR febjandec
,
,,
RMS RMS UpdateUpdateRMS RMS
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
3. Use more than 1 month for the Residential
Winter Ratio formula
Example – Change numerator to average the ADU for highest 2
months
Result - significant reduction in migration
SpringBaseFallBaseAverage
ADUseADUseADUseMaxWR febjandec
,
,,
RMS RMS UpdateUpdateRMS RMS
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
4. Apply a kWh minimum for Residential
High Winter Ratio profile assignment
Currently: None
Proposed: Identify a reasonable minimum usage for High
Winter Ratio assignment
Example – RESHIWR minimum = 10 kWh/day (300kWH/month)
If WR = 3.0 and 5 kWh/day then assign RESLOWR
If WR = 3.0 and 15 kWh/day then assign RESHIWR
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
5. Use an ERCOT administered residential survey
to determine heating system type for a sample
of customers
The survey will empirically support data used to define dead-
bands, minimum thresholds and revised WR calculation
40,000 surveys will be mailed to end use customers
5,000 to each weather zone
2,500 to each existing profile type current assignment
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
Market Participant Concerns Customer Confusion Call Center Impact Statistical Relevance
Solutions Adopted Bilingual Survey Answering service (800 number) Web information ERCOT staff follow-up Call Center Training Materials Statistical Relevance….
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
Statistical Relevance “Even in the worst case scenario, response data will be sufficient to make
significant improvements in profile assignments.”
Survey Accuracy (95% Confidence)
Return Rate ERCOT Total Weather Zone
15% ±1.3% ± 3.7%
10% ± 1.6% ± 4.5%
5% ± 2.2% ± 6.3%
1% ± 5.0% ± 14.1%
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Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board
Near Term Action Plan
RMS approved the PWG action plan Concept of the residential survey Implementation time line
Collaborative effort of PWG and RMS produced a simplified residential survey
Market conference call to discuss concerns
RMS email vote affirmed the survey
RMS Recommendation: TAC endorse the Residential Survey and Near Term Action Plan
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Questions
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