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1Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RMB Morgan Stanley conferenceThe drivers of improved balance sheet growth27 May 2019
2Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Nedbank Group – drivers of improved balance sheet growth
Macroeconomic drivers – a top down view
CIB & RBB credit growth drivers
▪ Wholesale-biased business model positions Nedbank Group well to benefit
from increase in business confidence & economic growth
▪ Growth momentum in RBB to continue (after having de-risked the portfolio
in prior years)
RBB deposit growth
▪ Ongoing focus on driving primary client gains across all our businesses
1
2
3
3Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Stronger economic growth dependent on structural reforms, policy
certainty, improved levels of confidence, investment & job creation
Early stages of political &
institutional turnaround in SA
Structural
reforms
& policy
certainty
Improved
levels of business & consumer confidence
Increased
levels of
inclusive
economic
growth
Job creation & reduced …
− unemployment
− poverty
− inequality
Increased
levels of local & foreign
investment
Government, business, labour & civil society working together to create a more prosperous SA for all her people …
… underpinned by improved skills & educational outcomes
To move forward we need more
certainty on electricity supply, EWC
(land) & other areas of policy certainty
the post general elections
1
4Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Macro economic forecasts under Ramaphobia, Ramaphoria &
Ramareality scenarios
Ramaphobia
(High stress)
Ramaphoria
(Positive)
Ramareality
(Base case)
SA GDP growth 0.8% 0.4% (0.2%) 0.7% 0.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.6% 1.9%
1.3% 1.8% 2.0%
Ave prime
interest rate 10.1% 10.6% 11.3% 11.3% 10.1% 10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.1% 10.3% 10.5% 10.5%
Inflation (CPI) 4.7% 5.4% 6.4% 5.8% 4.7% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.7% 4.6% 5.3% 5.2%
Credit growth 5.2% 4.7% 3.2% 5.4% 5.2% 7.6% 9.0% 9.2% 5.2% 5.5% 6.9% 7.7%
18 19 20 21 18 19 20 21 18 19 20 21
Rmaobia
(high stress) (hiRaaphobiagh stress)
Raphoba
(high stre5s)
Nedbank forecasts & scenarios updated: 1 April 2019 (Nedbank Group Economic Unit)
1
Previous
forecast
(Feb 2019)
5Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Industry credit growth – companies vs households
Nedbank forecasts & scenarios updated: 24 May 2019 (Nedbank Group Economic Unit)
1
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Total Companies Households
Company growth benefitted from
renewable energy investments &
rest of Africa expansion
SA credit growth (%)
5.5
%
6.9
%
7.7
%
5.9
%
6.2
%
7.0
%
5.2
%
7.5
%
8.3
%
7.1
%
8.9
%
10
.2%
2019 2020 2021
SA credit growth forecasts
Total SA credit Households
Non-household Other corporate
6Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Wholesale credit growth – fixed investment to increase modestly1
Gross domestic fixed investment (Rbn) Top-down sector sensitivity to various factors
Expected
growth
Economic
cycle
Energy
reliance
Policy
influence
Mining
Manufacturing
(incl industrials)
Electricity
Construction
Domestic trade
Transport &
comms
Finance
General government
Very challenging Very supportive
Source: Nedbank Economic Unit
350000
450000
550000
650000
750000
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Base case
Positive scenario
High stress scenario
Current
status
Commercial property
REIPPPREIPPP
7Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Retail credit growth – interest rates & consumer indebtedness stable, but
growth dependent on job creation & increased levels of consumer spending1
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
SA prime rate (%) Employment trends (index: 100 = March 2008)
Household consumption expenditure (Rbn)Personal debt-to-disposable income (%)
2 500
2 000
1 500
50020
40
60
80
100
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
90
95
100
105
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Private sector Total Employment
Source: Nedbank Economic Unit Base case Positive scenarioHigh stress scenario
1 000
8Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Nedbank Group – drivers of improved balance sheet growth
Macro-economic drivers – a top down view
CIB & RBB credit growth drivers
▪ Wholesale-biased business model positions Nedbank Group well to benefit
from increase in business confidence & economic growth
▪ Growth momentum in RBB to continue (after having de-risked the portfolio
in prior years)
RBB deposit growth
▪ Ongoing focus on driving primary client gains across all our businesses
1
2
3
9Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Nedbank Group advances growth 2
200
250
300
350
H114
H214
H115
H215
H116
H216
H117
H217
H118
H218
CIB (excl trading advances) RBB
CIB & RBB banking advances (Rbn)Banking vs trading advances (Rbn)
400
500
600
700
800
H114
H214
H115
H215
H116
H216
H117
H217
H118
H218
Banking advances Trading advances
10Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
BA900 market share
14.5
0
10
20
30
40
20182016201420122010
HL market share (%)
13.7
0
10
20
30
40
20182016201420122010
Credit card market share (%)
35.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
20182016201420122010
VAF market share (%)
10.4
-5
5
15
25
35
20182016201420122010
Personal loans market share (%)
20.6
-5
5
15
25
35
20182016201420122010
Core corporate market share (%)
39.1
-5
5
15
25
35
45
20182016201420122010
Commercial property market share (%)
18.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20182016201420122010
Household deposits market share (%)
16.5
0
10
20
30
40
20182016201420122010
Commercial deposits market share (%)
2
11Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
SDGs – opportunities to grow while contributing to a greater purpose
Sustainable Development Finance SDG 4: Quality education – Student accommodation, Student loans, Student Financial Aid
programme (Ikusasa) etc
SDG 6: Clean water & sanitation – Assistance, advisory services & finance to address SA’s
water challenges (public & private sector)
SDG 7: Affordable & clean energy – Utility-scale renewable-energy finance (R22,8bn
disbursed to date from R40bn underwritten), Embedded energy generation eg R1bn of solar
power installations in CPF in 2018), Solar power for small businesses & homes, First SA
commercial bank to launch a green renewable energy bond (3x oversubscribed) etc
SDG 8: Decent work & economic growth – Inclusive banking solutions including MobiMoney,
Stokvel account, Unlocked.me, assisting VBS clients etc, Enterprise Development including
assistance to 24 Expanded Public Works Programmes, YES programme – 3 315 job
opportunities, R20m contribution to government’s SME fund etc
SDG 9: Industry, innovation & infrastructure – Infrastructure development in SA & Africa
including mass transit, rail & road corridors, ICT, energy, schools & hospitals etc
SDG 10: Reduced inequalities – Cross border remittances, low cost banking solutions,
consumer education etc
SDG 11: Sustainable cities & communities – Affordable housing funding (R1,2bn in 2018),
Social housing project partnerships, Green buildings (R4,8bn in 2018) etc
SDG 12: Responsible consumption & production – Sustainable and ethical agricultural
practices, including investments eg Aerobotics
SDG 15: Life on land – Conservation partnership with WWF (Water Balance programme,
Sustainable Agriculture programme etc)
Using our
financial
expertise to
do good
2
12Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
CIB – commercial property growth drivers
Commercial property finance Growth range1: 2 to 6%
Macro drivers:
▪ Low growth economic environment & difficult market
conditions
▪ Rentals under pressure across all segments of the
market with rental reversions common
▪ Significant competition across lenders to win high quality
deals at the top end of the market
▪ Pressure in the construction sector negatively impacting
new developments
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ High-quality book (as evident in CLR below 50 bps over
10 years2) & LTVs at < 45%
▪ Growth & investment in Africa business to ensure
ongoing revenue growth & diversification
▪ Focus on the equity business as a competitive advantage
▪ Proactive management of the portfolio has resulted in
CLR below target range
▪ Continue leveraging dominant market position in the SA
debt business
21
22
1211
5
10
2
33
11
Offices
Retailers
Warehouse
Multiple portfolios
Manufacturing
Residential
Vacant land
Hotel & BB
Other mortgages
Other loans
Diversified book by property type (%) Dec 2018
2
Advances (Rbn)Advances (Rbn)
68.5
73.9
77.5
79.4
84.4
99.6
116.1
127.1
137.4
140.8
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum | 2: Excluding Imperial Bank book
13Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
CIB – other corporate loan growth drivers
Other corporate loans1 Growth range1: 6 to 12%
Macro drivers:
▪ Policy certainty expected to improve post-elections due to focus
on governance & ease of doing business as well as
implementation of growth-enabling & job-creating policies in line
with the NDP
▪ This will impact the energy sector (IRP); mining charter;
immigration (tourism & FDI – especially skills acquisition); telcos
(Spectrum) & land reform (expropriation bill)
▪ Business & consumer confidence likely to improve, but with a
lag – which should yield better growth outcomes into 2020/ 2021
▪ Growth sectors – diversified, mining, renewable energy, telcos,
infrastructure, Africa
▪ Stressed sectors – cement, construction, retailers, SOEs
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ Momentum from execution of Q4 2018 deal activity
▪ Despite slowdown in the economy, we continued to win deals &
mandates (without impacting economic returns) – solid pipeline
across Debt, Equity (VC) & Advisory
▪ Renewable energy: Closed round 4 in 2018, paid away R23bn,
with R40bn commitments in all rounds
28
0
25
50
75
100
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
SA BER/ RMB Business confidence index
2
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum | 2: Represents IB, Coverage & other corporate loans in CIB
169.6
187.2
182.8
179.6
Banking advances2 (Rbn)
2017 201820162015
14Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RBB – homeloans growth drivers
Homeloans Growth range1: 4 to 7%
Macro drivers:
Mortgage growth remains benign, primarily due to:
▪ Difficult macro-economic environment
▪ Political/ regulatory uncertainty (ie land expropriation,
load-shedding)
▪ Slowing house price inflation: < 4% for the first time since
2012 (Lightstone)
▪ Recent competitor action (particularly underwriting)
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ De-risked the book from 2009 to 2012
▪ Improved pricing from ‘Prime minus 130bps’ (2008) to
‘Prime plus 30bps’ (Q1 2019)
▪ Digital innovations (eg Home Buying toolkit)
▪ Multi-channel strategy
▪ Strong focus on improving client experiences
▪ Selective identification of risk appetite opportunities given
credit performance
▪ Working to build strong relationships with key real estate
groups
114.3
113.4
108.9
105.0
102.9
103.0
109.3
112.2
116.1
121.7
Advances (Rbn)
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
0,7%4,3%
CAGR
Source: Experian Delphi Score
Nedbank vs peers’ new business: proportion of low-risk clients (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum
15Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RBB – vehicle finance (MFC) growth drivers
Vehicle finance Growth range1: 7 to 10%
Macro drivers:
▪ Weak Rand negatively affecting new car prices
▪ Low levels of consumer confidence
▪ Negative client cashflow
▪ Publicly declared intent of peer banks to resurrect historic
successes
▪ Ongoing increase in funding costs, driving up client risk-
adjusted interest rate offers
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ Intrinsic security higher with largely used assets
▪ Strategic positioning and risk appetite adjustments in the
R100,000 – R300,000 car market
▪ Ability to grow (off a low base) the taxi and light
commercial vehicle (LCV) books
▪ The launch of a digital VAF channel to be able to serve
client choice to source cars and apply on-line / in App
44.3
50.1
54.4
59.4
67.6
75.5
81.2
87.4
94.9
104.2
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
Advances (Rbn)
79
7165 63 65 67
63
74 72 71
21
2935 37 35 33
37
26 28 29
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MFC used vs new vehicle sales (%)
Used New
10,0%
CAGR
2
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum
16Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RBB – personal loans growth drivers
Personal loans Growth range1: 7 to 10%
Macro drivers:
▪ Consumers strained given the weak macro
▪ Reduced excess affordability & increase in retrenchments
driving increase in risk
▪ Market growth > 10% notwithstanding risk /strain
▪ Banks competing for deeper share of wallet of their own
customers & shift to digital /simple /quick
▪ Potential margin pressure as digital solutions make
comparative offers quick & simple
▪ Debi Check – potential negative impact on growth/ risk
(dependent on mandates)
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ De-risked the book from 2012 to 2015
▪ New end to end onboarding system
▪ ‘Good for credit’ client CVP
▪ Credit products in App
▪ New online banking ‘7-click process’ launched
▪ Kiosks/ ATMs following shortly
9.1
12.5
17.3
22.2
20.1
17.1
16.3
17.5
18.1
20.0
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
Advances (Rbn)
34,7%
CAGR7,0%
PL market share of new business by risk band1 (%)
Nedbank Tier 1 ** Tier 2 **
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
15 1816 17
Low Risk Low-Medium Risk Medium Risk High risk
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
15 16 17 180%
20%
40%
60%
80%
15 1716 18
* Low risk (Bureau score ≥ 658); Low−medium risk (Bureau score 644−657); Medium risk (Bureau score 626−643); High risk (Bureau score ≤ 625).
** Tier 1 refers to traditional 4 banks, excluding Nedbank, while tier 2 refers to remaining material providers of unsecured personal loans.
Source: Experian
2
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum
17Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RBB – credit card growth drivers
Card Growth range1: 7 to 9%
Macro drivers:
▪ Credit-eligible population small relative to total SA
population
▪ TransUnion SA Consumer credit index < 50 for two
quarters. Corroborated by falling consumer confidence &
retail sales growth.
▪ Client behaviour shift from credit products to debit
products – indicative of the difficult environment.
▪ Commercial clients reducing spend on certain categories
eg travel & entertainment
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ Continued focus on digital channels.
▪ Access to data & insights off the back of the growth of
digital client intent (potentially identify areas of
opportunity for automated client engagement)
▪ Limit increase on App & campaigns
▪ Ghost accounts & digital on-line application
▪ Deepening cross sell to clients, both new & existing
7.3
7.8
8.5
9.9
11.3
13.2
13.9
14.7
15.6
16.3
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
Advances (Rbn)
9,4%
CAGR
103
15 24
Retail Hardware
6
Restaurants Forecourts Drug Stores Other Total Portfolio
-2
10 5
Card acquiring growth per segment %
Turnover Growth
2
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum
18Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RBB – Retail Relationship Banking credit growth drivers
Retail Relationship Banking Growth range1: 7 to 9%
Macro drivers:
▪ Low capital outlay from large corporates (confidence)
directly impacting growth in small business
▪ Limitations on the current infrastructure as provided by
Parastatals
▪ Small Business: Poor record keeping / inability to
produce up-to-date financials
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ EPIC lending tool: full roll-out across all products
completed by July 2019
▪ Client centric pricing: in play, but constant refinements.
▪ Pre-assessment / client profiling: partially in play for EPIC
lending tool (go live H2 2019)
▪ SBS Accounting: Integrated solution to assist with basic
accounting & credit decision making (2020)
▪ Tailored policies for young professional & Medical
profession
25.1
26.3
23.3
23.7
24.4
24.9
30.7
33.2
33.8
37.7
2.4
0
2.6
0
1.4
7
0.7
2
0.3
3
0.0
7
0.1
2
0.0
9
0.0
5
0.2
1
2009 & 2010 still the carry over of higher provisions on Home Loans book following 2008 Crisis
Advances (Rbn)
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
4,6%
CAGR
7,1%
Credit loss ratio (%)
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
2
R4.9bn advances moved from BB to RRB in 2015 with normalised growth of 2.5% in 2016 due to
client migrations to CIB
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum
19Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RBB – Business Banking credit growth drivers
Business Banking Growth range1: 8 to 11%
Macro drivers:
▪ Increased competitor pricing pressure on the back of a challenging
macro. Specific challenges in the mining sector, transport (high
fuel costs); construction & consequently steel industry.
▪ Increased credit risk as a result of the prolonged drought (yields
declining in the agric base).
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ Growth in Debtor Management with enhancements to improve
efficiencies & overall client experience
▪ Specialised Finance scaled with good pipeline of activity (spurred by
M&A as a lever for growth & increased focus on BBBEE)
▪ Enhanced Public Sector strategy resulting in increased client gains
(eg Municipalities, Universities)
▪ Finalising a unique & integrated pricing philosophy across assets,
transactional banking & investments, (over & above credit risk).
▪ Accelerate Advances Growth Strategy: A plan designed for the
frontline to taking more risk based on an inherently good risk
philosophy.
▪ See Clients Differently: Unique & integrated pricing philosophy
across assets, transactional banking and investments –
incorporating various risk elements such as liquidity & diversification
risk, unlocking more cross sell opportunities over & above credit risk
52.0
52.6
60.4
61.4
64.1
67.2
66.2
65.3
67.8
75.4
R4.9bn advances moved from BB to RRB in 2015 with normalised growth of 2.5% in 2016 due to
client migrations to CIB
0.5
2
0.4
0
0.5
3
0.3
4
0.6
5
0.4
2 0.4
8
0.2
6 0.1
2
0.1
5
2013 included R167m of First Strut impairment
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
Advances (Rbn)
4,2%7,4%
CAGR
Credit loss ratio (%)
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
2
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum
20Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Nedbank Group – drivers of improved balance sheet growth
Macro-economic drivers – a top down view
CIB & RBB credit growth drivers
▪ Wholesale-biased business model positions Nedbank Group well to benefit
from increase in business confidence & economic growth
▪ Growth momentum in RBB to continue (after having de-risked the portfolio
in prior years)
RBB deposit growth
▪ Ongoing focus on driving primary client gains across all our businesses
1
2
3
21Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Main-banked client gains across all our businesses an underpin to
deposit growth
6.9
7.5
5.4
6.0
2.53.0
8.8%
13.1%
Total
clients
Main-banked
clients
Transactional
clients
RBB retail client base (million)
2014 2018
+2%
+3%
+5%
Primary bank
market share2
Target: 15%
by 2020
Note 2: 2014: AMPS; 2018: Consulta: Same question asked: ‘Which ONE bank do you regard as your main
bank for personal banking?’
25
5
16
10
11
10
2
7
2
21 22
2
3
2
14 15 16 17 18
Tier 4 Tier 3 Tier 2
Tier 1 Target
CIB primary-client wins1 (#)
Target = 25 p.a.
30
26
39
Definition of tiers:
Note 1: Tier 1 > R5m | Tier 2 < R5m > R500k | Tier 3 < R500k > R100k | Tier 4 < R100k
3
22Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
RBB – deposit growth drivers
Retail Deposits Growth range1: 8 to 10%
Macro drivers:
▪ Slow market growth on the back of economic pressures
and uncertainties.
▪ Reducing consumer savings as a percentage of
household income.
Nedbank specific drivers:
▪ Strategic decision in Q4 2017 to not price materially
higher relative to competitor rates.
▪ This contributed to a more equitable margin at the cost of
slightly lower market share.
▪ On a net basis, the higher margins offset the lower
volumes resulting in a favourable outcome on NII.
▪ Digital focus with the goal of enhancing the client
experience & ease of opening, maintaining & reinvesting
investment products, thereby growing our market share &
lowering costs.
▪ Focus on growing main-banked clients across all
segments.
86.6
87.2
91.5
98.9
107.8
118.1
133.1
150.0
168.8
183.2
Post financial crisis CAGR growth >10%
Retail deposits (Rbn)
20172009 20182010 20132011 2012 2014 20162015
8,7%10,4%
CAGR
Main-banked client market share (%)
9.6 10.1
12.7 13.1
2017 20182014 20162015
Retail
ConsultaAMPS
2021
2019
22
2017 20182014 20162015
Business Banking
KPI Research: BB electronic Banking study
3
Note 1: 3-year growth target per annum
23Nedbank Group – RMB Morgan Stanley Bank Showcase (May 2019)
Contact us
Disclaimer
Nedbank Group has acted in good faith and has made every reasonable effort to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this
document, including all information that may be defined as 'forward-looking statements' within the meaning of United States securities legislation.
Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as ‘believe’, 'anticipate', 'expect', 'plan', 'estimate', 'intend', 'project', 'target', 'predict' and 'hope'.
Forward-looking statements are not statements of fact, but statements by the management of Nedbank Group based on its current estimates, projections,
expectations, beliefs and assumptions regarding the group's future performance.
No assurance can be given that forward-looking statements will prove to be correct and undue reliance should not be placed on such statements.
The risks and uncertainties inherent in the forward-looking statements contained in this document include, but are not limited to: changes to IFRS and the
interpretations, applications and practices subject thereto as they apply to past, present and future periods; domestic and international business and market
conditions such as exchange rate and interest rate movements; changes in the domestic and international regulatory and legislative environments; changes to
domestic and international operational, social, economic and political risks; and the effects of both current and future litigation.
Nedbank Group does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements contained in this document and does not assume responsibility for any loss or
damage whatsoever and howsoever arising as a result of the reliance by any party thereon, including, but not limited to, loss of earnings, profits, or consequential
loss or damage.
Nedbank Group
nedbankgroup.co.za
Nedbank Group Limited
Tel: +27 (0) 11 294 4444
Physical address
135 Rivonia Road
Sandown
2196
South Africa
Nedbank Investor Relations
Head of Investor Relations
Alfred Visagie
Direct tel: +27 (0) 11 295 6249
Cell: +27 (0) 82 855 4692
Email: [email protected]
Investor Relations
Larisa Masliukova
Direct tel: +27 (0) 11 295 5261
Cell: +27 (0) 82 085 9914
Email: [email protected]
Investor Relations
Vuyo Majija
Direct tel: +27 (0) 10 234 5975
Cell: +27 (0) 76 785 3562
Email: [email protected]