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Marie Venner Venner Consulting
WEATHER Final Conference Athens, April 2012
Rising Transport Maintenance Costs with Extreme Weather: Responding and Adapting to
Climate Change
Discussion & Survey Following Summer 2011 AASHTO Maintenance Meeting • Highway and bridge repairs from
extreme events are tapping budgets as never before
• Weather is already the 2nd largest cause of
recurring congestion - role in 25% of crashes • DOTs have an increasing role in emergency
management • Extreme weather costs and implications for DOTs
are a starting place for understanding and planning for the impacts of climate change
• Talk with DOTs about changes they are already seeing, emphasize what is known, observable – introduce climate change
• Identify current and probable risk areas – have maintenance forces identify “what keeps you up at night”
• DOT actions & practical adaptation planning • Asset management context and long-term cost
estimation, critical infrastructure resilience decision support system
Current Approach with DOTs in the US
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/ July 2010
Decadal Changes In Average Global Temperature
Precipitation rankings for U.S. states in 2011. 7 states had their wettest year on record, and an additional 10 states had a top-ten wettest year. Texas had its driest year on record, and 4 other states had a top-ten driest year. Image credit: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.
4x normal area of the US in extreme temp, rainfall, or drought
Percentage of the contiguous U.S. either in severe or greater drought (top 10% dryness) or extremely wet (top 10% wetness). NOAA/NCDC.
More severe weather…the new normal since the 1980s
• Extreme weather events have driven “the need to further prioritize (DOT) work, making tradeoffs” with regular program needs including
• Reductions in work efforts below the threshold of “essential for safety.”
• Leaders: sure there is increasing extreme weather, but connection with climate change?
• Need: illustrate the connections & implications
DOT Maintenance Managers’ Observations
Reinsurance Companies Are Tracking the
Increase in Extreme Weather
Munich Re (2nd largest reinsurance company): Weather and climate-related events have been climbing steadily since 1980, increasing in number, severity (such as average wind intensity) and often in lives lost.
“The only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-related catastrophes is climate change…The view that weather extremes are more frequent and intense due to global warming coincides with the current state of scientific knowledge.”
Scientific American and the Pew Center: Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Understanding the Link, Managing the Risk
Karl, T. R., et al. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate; Regions of
Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008. NOAA.
“Most of the social and economic costs
of climate change result from the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather.”
Solomon et al., 2009 http://www.pnas.org/content/106/6/1704.full.pdf+html
• Every 24 hours we dump another 90 million tons of GHG emissions into the thin shell of atmosphere surrounding our planet.
• 20% of the global-warming pollution we emit will still be there 20,000 years from now.
• Climate change due to increases in CO2 concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop.
Why is this happening?
How far out, are we? Mar-Apr 2012 in US saw some heat records broken by 18 C
Extreme Heat Is Rising, Globally Increase >10x of area covered by extreme hot
anomalies (> +3σ ) in summer
Summer Temp Anomalies - Global in Units of the Local Standard Deviation of
Temperature Relative to 1951-81 Mean
Not as noticeable in the U.S.?
This century, By century’s end, temps up to 122°F will threaten most of the central, southern, and western U.S.
Houston & DC: temperatures > 98°F for some 60 days/yr. Oklahoma: >110°F for 60-80 days/year Arizona: >105°F 98 days/yr (14 weeks)
Record Highs Now Outpace Lows by More than 2:1
This NCAR graphic shows the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from
Jan. 1950 through Sept. 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. In the last 30 years record highs have
increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about 2:1 for the Lower 48 as a whole.
NCAR, 2009 NCAR
Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Climate Analysis Section
“The environment in which all storms form has changed…Global warming has increased temperatures and directly related to that is an increase in the water-holding of the atmosphere… the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has increased by about 4%, consistent with a 1 degree F warming of sea surface temperatures since about the 1970s.”
Dr. Jeff Masters, former NOAA meteorologist, now Director of Meteorology for the Weather Underground & PBS Commenter: “The extra heat and moisture are like steroids for the atmosphere.”
Texas: 8 of the nation’s billion dollar disasters, including drought, heat, wildfires, and now low groundwater, with many cities smashing records for the longest stretch of 100-degree days, including • Dallas: record 70 straight days with 100-degree • San Angelo: a whopping 98 days above 100. • July 2011 – statewide hottest month on record • Amarillo, Texas, reached 111 degrees F
Kansas: Records for 100-degree plus heat, beat Dust Bowl summer of ‘36. Ag losses >$4 billion.
Oklahoma: Hottest summer of any state in U.S. history, beating TX & 1934 record: avg 89, day & nt
Tenn: $4 billion in floods, heat, tornadoes
Apr. ‘11: Worst tornado month in US history MO: America’s worst tornado since 1950. Floods exceeding previous 1925 record. Alabama: Largest tornado outbreak in American history, when more than 100 twisters gouged paths across the state in late April, killing 240 people. Connecticut: Worst Oct. snow in 200 yrs, $500 mil, 700K people w/o heat & lights. Vermont: 175 roads destroyed. Damaged > 500 miles of state highway & 200 state bridges. NJ: 300 roads & highways closed.
DOTs are Dealing with Heavier Precipitation
DOTs are Dealing with Increased Incidence of What Were Formerly 500 & 1000-year+ Flooding Events
Nashville received more than 2x rain than their
previous record for a two-day period. Moreover, the previous record was due to a hurricane, rather than
a heavy storm.
For Tennessee DOT: • $40 million in flood-related repair costs
after the May 2010 floods, following on $5 million of repair costs for landslides
• 83,000 state DOT maintenance hours dealing with damages in 41 counties, including sinkholes up to 25 feet wide and deep that developed on I-24 two weeks later, closing the interstate.
• Damage to 1,167 highway bridges, 54 of which required closure – Debris accumulation - 504 bridges – Damage to roadway approaches – 415 bridges – Channel embankment erosion – 362 bridges – Scour damage - 225 bridges
773 bridges had a single type of damage, 317 bridges had two types of damage, 65 had three…
The amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1% of rain events increased nearly 20% in the last 50 years – largest increases were in NE & Midwest
“Climate models project continued increases in the heaviest downpours during this century, while the lightest precipitation is projected to decrease. Much larger increases in heavy downpours are projected under the higher emissions scenarios” Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S., 2009
WA I-5 closed 3x for flooding in last 15
years (twice in last 5), never before that.
Two 4-daytorm related closures of I-5 and I-90 in 2007-2008 resulted in $75 million total
losses from freight delays and equivalent of 460 jobs for one
year. Lost sales tax: $3.8 million. Reduction in personal income was over $23 million.
Wyoming DOT responding to: • Flooding, erosion issues and landslides
related to extremely high mountain snowpack levels in 2010-2011.
• Flash flooding, incl. road closures, culvert failures, and 4 fatalities after debris flows from a flash flood plugged a drainage structure and the resulting flows caused erosion which took out the roadway.
Also: • Longer openings for seasonal closures. • Local community needs for flood
prevention assistance. Other routine work has been placed on the back burner and is significantly behind schedule, despite months of extra-long hours.
“On the combined town and state network, Tropical
Storm Irene washed out more than 2,000 roadway segments, undermined
more than 1,000 culverts and damaged more than
300 bridges. Understanding that our
climate is changing and that the frequency and intensity
of storm activity will likely be greater during the next 100 years than it was during the last 100, it is prudent that as we rebuild we also adapt.”
Rich Tetreault, VTrans Chief Engineer
More Intense Wind, Tornadoes
Increasing Dust Storms and Costs for DOTs To avoid fatalities in dust storms: • AZ DOT has had to
close interstates • New Mexico DOT
recently invested in research for ITS
Long term (20 yr) USGS & UCLA predictions for the SW: higher temps, reduced perennial vegetation cover, increased dust storm activity
Increased DOT Costs and Time Due to Greater Wildfires Arizona DOT: record-breaking fires in 2011 cost ADOT over $2 million in labor, for road blocks and traffic control, for burned fence, guard rail and signs. ADOT is now incurring additional costs due to flooding and culvert damage due to the excessive runoff from slopes now devoid of vegetation.
Changes DOTs are Noting in Construction and Maintenance
• Altered program due to emergency needs (ND, VT, WY, and others)
• Contractors asking for time extensions due to hot weather & amended worker schedules (OK)
• Difficulties obtaining hay, mulch, water for plantings in (TX, OK)
• Difficulties obtaining water for dust suppression (TX, OK)
• Increased pavement wear (WI, PA, TX) • Increased use of DOT crews and equipment
for barricading, traffic control, clean up (many). Also creating firebreaks (AZ, TX)
In the far north… • Arctic sea-ice cover
has been setting record lows
• Loss of shore-fast sea ice increases coastal erosion, puts coastal roads at risk.
• 180 communities threatened in Alaska & 3 whole town re-locations thus far.
• Photos taken 2 hours apart - road no longer exists
FEMA has found that every dollar spent by the agency on hazard mitigation provides the Nation with about four dollars in future benefits. (May hold for transport?) Multi-hazard Mitigation Council. (2005). Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future Savings from Mitigation Activities. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington, DC: nibs.org/client/assets/files/mmc/Part1_final.pdf
DOT Maintenance & Emergency Managers Recommendations to Improve DOTs’ Abilities to
Manage Demands of Extreme Weather
Transportation-specific disaster planning is emerging. Depending on the size of the event, it may be best to contract it all out. The reimbursement rate is better, but sometimes the DOT needs to be visible.
DOT maintenance managers noted that mobilization of forces for emergencies and extreme weather response and repair of roads and bridges draws on DOTs’ strengths: People who know how to do the work Equipment, people, and communication
networks in place statewide, to respond with speed.
Maintenance Engineers note DOT forces can generally do the work for less than a contractor and save the taxpayers money, though contractors will still be necessary.
Determine Use of Detour Routes Capacity on detour routes may be limited and require advance planning. For example, when I-5 was closed in Washington State due to flooding, WSDOT established a primary truck detour along I-84 in Oregon and over I-82 and I-90 in Washington, a route that added 440 miles to a 200-mile trip from Portland to Seattle. WSDOT made shorter routes (SR 7 and US 12) available for trucks carrying emergency supplies and perishable items, but it was difficult to enforce such distinctions on the ground. Consequently, WSDOT decided it would “need to take several actions, including working with local communities and developing plans on when, how, and where to provide detours on local roads; conducting a highway capacity assessment; and developing written protocols for which classifications of freight will be allowed to use the route and with what priority.”
Utilization of GIS in Critical Infrastructure Management and Protection Can help establish: • Vulnerability, risk, and
damage • Options in terms of
emergency response, evacuation, routes for responders, logistics
• DOTs understanding and planning for risks and infrastructure access opportunities from a multimodal perspective
Tennessee's enterprise database is called the Tennessee Roadway Information Management System (TRIMS); a small part is the state’s bridge and culvert data
Improving GIS in Critical Infrastructure Mgmt. and Protection NBI coding fields for bridges typically don’t address flooding. For example, FHWA’s Guide has fields to capture the type of superstructure used on the bridge, but none for the type of substructure (abutments, piers, etc.) or bridge foundation used. TDOT added fields: • To capture the type of substructures and foundations • Expanding upon NBI Item 113 (Scour Critical) coding • For maintenance needs for highway bridges • Year that a bridge or culvert was built (i.e. field NBI I27) TDOT still lacks fields that containing waterway opening, drainage areas, or bridge heights. PennDOT and MDSHA are working on adding the latter as part of climate change preparedness.
Constantly Improving Public Communication in Extreme Weather Events and Road Closures
• The public increasingly expects instant information
• DOTs have found that funneling road closure information to electronic media is a solution.
• The public does not always know or care who is responsible (local, state, or federal) for the road.
Emergency/Road Closure Communication Solutions – Freight Industry During Interstate Closures • Develop a freight email list and
send messages with updates on road conditions
• Provide information to trucking channels on satellite radio
• Distribute flyers and detour maps directly to truck drivers
• Keep DOT website updated with alternative truck routes
• Collect recommendations • Upgrade IT, add more cameras,
social media communication
DOT Maintenance & Emergency Managers Recommendations Pre-assign Internal Responsibilities within Operations & Maintenance Designate who shall: • Act as DOT Emergency Mgmt. Coordinator. • Act as Liaison with the FHWA Division office,
for emergency repairs. • Collect the Detailed Damage Inspection
Reports from the affected District(s). • Establish the initial emergency repair and
debris clearance project limits. • Obtain emergency work authorizations. • Coordinate emergency relief efforts
between the Districts.
• We’re not going to know with a fine degree of precision, where, when, and how much extra precipitation will come
• But we can plan for general directions and trends, and use the knowledge available
• What areas are flooding now? • What culverts or bridges are at risk?
Practical Rather than Resource Intensive Adaptation Planning
Adaptation Goals (from 2011 Federal Adaptation Progress Report)
• Integrate Adaptation into Govt Planning and Activities (missions, programs, operations – to ensure resources are invested wisely and services remain effective for the American people. Identify vulnerabilities, prioritize activities to reduce risk.
• Prepare for a range of extreme weather and climate impacts – Build local resilience.
• Improve accessibility to science • Develop strategies to safeguard natural
resources and the services they provide • Lead!
Clarify Risk with Political Decision Makers – What Investments Are
Occurring or Not • A Crown Inquiry after a culvert failure in Australia:
“CGCC cannot have it both ways. It is either a roads authority or it is not. As a road authority it is expected to conduct itself in a competent and professional manner. The investigation of the collapse of the culvert and road above shows that it did not act so.”
• “There hasn’t been much conversation of who owns the consequences below the line. At the political level, the politicians said they didn’t understand. Asset managers had not transferred (understanding of the implications of what they could not afford to do) to the political level.”
• Oahu MPO/Hawaii DOT Adaptation Planning Kick-Off
• WSDOT Adaptation Planning approach, without consultants
• MassDOT internal consultation, webinars
• SE Penn. Transit Authority
Practical Rather than Resource Intensive Adaptation Planning: Identify and Mobilize Internal Knowledge of Risk Areas
Initial risk screening need not be difficult or expensive
Dessai and van der Sluijs, Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation—a Scoping Study, http://www.nusap.net/downloads/reports/ucca_scoping_study.pdf
Mike Meyer, NCHRP 20-83-05
Impact Rating Scale (OR, WA)
Criticality of Asset Rating Scale (WSDOT):
Combined Matrix (WSDOT):
WSDOT Recommended Vulnerability Assessment Methodology
Next Steps WSDOT is Considering
• Analyze the results and conduct queries in GIS to show % of highways at risk. Communicate these to WSDOT programs and executive management.
• Incorporate the climate change vulnerability assessment into investment decisions.
• Develop a focused strategic plan to address long-term needs of key routes.
• Integrate climate change projections as another input into planning, design, and operational programming.
San Francisco/ Oakland California
Expected Sea Level Rise by 2040-2060 and percent of road infrastructure at risk by county
NOAA’s Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model
for the Delaware Bay Basin in New Jersey (most populous state in the US)
Rail Infrastructure Criticality Map – New Jersey
Rai
MDSHA: Risk Policy and Stormwater Retrofits are Under Development, in
response to flooding risks and SLR, as well as TMDLs
Involve Graduate Students & Interns
Keene, NH & Antioch Univ. examined • Possible impacts from more intense
& frequent rainfall events • The vulnerability of infrastructure,
specifically drainage culverts, to increased runoff
They found that up to 80% of existing culverts are too small to accommodate an expected 30% increase in runoff volume from climate change. MassDOT & MDSHA using interns too
PennDOT Adaptation Planning • Review materials that may prevent or
reduce buckling of roadways and/or bridges due to concrete expansion and softening of bituminous pavements.
• Perform work activities during cooler parts of the day to reduce impact of higher temperatures on materials, workers.
• More intense inspection of transportation infrastructure after high impact events in areas that are subject to erosion.
• More frequent inspections and installation of heat/pressure sensors in the pavement for real‐time anticipation of failure.
• Research and employ herbicide management techniques to control invasive species. Pursue research on data gaps.
• Plan for greater power needs associated with cooling.
Short Term (2-5 years) Strategies • Develop LiDAR GIS Mapping of Coastal Counties to
obtain accurate elevation data • Develop GIS-Based Trans. Asset Inventory • Perform Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment • Update USGS Peak Flood Flow Frequency Regional
Regression Equations • Develop Risk Based Probabilistic Methodology by
adapting HYRISK scour-critical methods/software • Recognize CC Impacts as a Design Consideration Mid Term (5+ Yrs) Develop & Implement New Design Standards, 20 Yrs+: Progressive Adapt.
Oahu, Hawaii Adaptation Planning
• Rainstorm intensity has already increased 12%. Also extended drought in between
• Anticipated 1-2 m rise by 2100. Rising water table affecting roadway foundations and aquifer integrity
• Two-day workshop – March 2011 - developed an inventory of critical transportation infrastructure
• Assessed the likelihood of impacts on existing resources and prioritized infrastructure assets based on criticality
In Conclusion…
As knowledgeable infrastructure managers, DOTs can help the public understand pavement and
other infrastructure preservation, as well as cost implications.
What’s too expensive (to go there)?
When do solutions that weren’t viable earlier become the best choice? What is our responsibility?
State Engineers are among the most credible, relevant, and important voices.
What can we afford to build, maintain, & repair, in the face of this challenge?
Legislatures and the public need our best assessment, to understand the
implications and make their choices.
What is Our Role?
Adaptation Planning Informs Mitigation: Help Public Understand the Costs of Protecting and Replacing Infrastructure, Plus the Energy Use Implications of Existing Infrastructure (IEA, 2011)
As a Sandia Labs study concluded: “Compelling risk derives from uncertainty, not certainty. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the risk. It is the uncertainty associated with climate change that validates the need to act protectively and proactively.”. George Backus et al., “Assessing the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States.” Sandia National Laboratories, 2010. https://cfwebprod.sandia.gov/cfdocs/CCIM/docs/Climate_Risk_Assessment.pdf
Though agencies may have a tendency to not act until trends provide clear
guidance…
