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Global Research & Analysis on Printed Electronics, Photovoltaics, Energy Harvesting and RFIDCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
RFID Forecasts, Trends by
Territory and Lessons
Raghu Das:
IDTechEx:
www.idtechex.com
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Overview of our services
EventsRun over 50 events in past 10 years. IDTechEx organise the
World’s largest events for Printed Electronics, Energy Harvesting
and other topics. 10 events/year across Asia, USA and Europe.
PublicationsOver 38 titles published with 8 additional titles planned for 2010.
Web Portals: Printed Electronics World & Energy Harvesting Journal
World’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase.
World’s Largest Printed Electronics Suppliers database
Consultancy:Over 250 consultancy projects, most under NDA. A few
companies we can mention include: Hewlett Packard, Shell ICI,
Rexam, Whirlpool Europe, Guinness UDV, Thin Film Electronics.
PolyTechnos, Cazenove investment, Schiphol Airport.
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Chip 9736 million – 20% in 2009
Chipless 171 million
CHIP TYPE IS 99% OF MARKET VALUE
Active/RTLS: All chip – 722 million tags
DIGITALLY-ENCODED LOW COST RFID TAGS ABOVE 0.1cm
RANGE
Active and passive tags
Worldwide sales cumulative numbers
Cumulative sales in millions of tags 1943 to start of 2010
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Cumulative sales in millions of tags 1943 - start of 2010
Application Cumulative number of tags (millions)
Retail/ consumer goods 1490 – pallets/cases, apparel, items
Land and sea logistics/ postal 145
Airlines and airports 215 – baggage, conveyances
Healthcare and drugs 161 – AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Purdue, GSK etc
Animals & farming 485
Books, libraries, archiving 522 – Libraries, Selexyz
Manufacturing 356 – process control
Leisure 210 – Hasbro toys, events
Laundry 84
Financial, security, safety 2445 – ID, passports
Military inc pallet/ case 173
Passenger transport/ automotive 2715 – clickers, cards
Other 907
Total 9908 (incl. Chipless)
RFID chip sales cumulative
NXP 3920
EM Micro 2200
Texas Insts 1150
Impinj 1000
Sony 650
Other 876
Total 9736
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Number m Value $mSource: IDTechEx RFID
Forecasts, Players &
Opportunities 2011-
2021
www.IDTechEx.com/for
ecasts
Sales growth: tags 2009 to 2010
2009 2010 2009 2010
Drugs and Other Healthcare 32 33 29 25
Retail apparel 200 300 24 36
Consumer goods 10 12 1 1
Postal 10 12 10 12
Books 90 100 20 14
Manufacturing parts, tools 90 140 35 39
Pallet/case 50 50 4 4
Smart cards/payment key fobs 440 450 1061 1139
Smart tickets 350 380 42 42
Air baggage 65 70 12 13
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes 39 76 35 47
Animals 105 178 103 173
Passport page/secure documents 65 65 244 241
Other tag applications 433 441 413 340
Total (billion) 1.98 2.31 2.03 2.13
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Total market size
• 2010 - $5.63 Billion
– Cards $2.36bn; Labels/tickets/fobs $3.06bn
– Passive $5.02bn; Active $0.61bn
Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2011-2021
www.IDTechEx.com/forecasts
1375
397303
224 190 170118 101 93 87
0
500
1,000
1,500
Unite
d Sta
tes
Unite
d Kin
gdom
Chin
a
Ger
man
y
Japan
France
Aust
ralia
Can
ada
Net
herla
ndsIta
ly
Nu
mb
er
of
ca
se
stu
die
s
USA still has the largest number of RFID projects, China moves from 7th to 3rd in one year.
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Largest potential for RFID is retail/ consumer
goods
Perceptive Stupid
19992004
2000 Depressed 2008
Wild enthusiasm
that tens of billions
of pallets/ cases
could have 10 cent
tags and trillions of
items a year in
supermarkets could
have one cent tags
using current
technology
Procter & Gamble
says it cannot get
a payback on
pallet/case tagging
unless tag is under
2.5 cents. Other
CPG suppliers say
one cent
Realisation that
silicon chip
technology will
never get there
Marks &
Spencer gets
payback with 15
cent tags
American
Apparel has
reusable tags
Many niche
applications at
10 cents to $1
MIT
concept of
very basic
low cost
tags on
everything
Attitude
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Passive RFID – growth areas
• Item level RFID (UHF) – closed loop– Marks & Spencer apparel, American Apparel … report 5 to 25%
sales uplift!
• Asset Tracking (UHF) – closed loop
• National ID (HF) - government– Including passports
• Transit Tickets (HF) - government– transit ticketing etc.
• Animals (LF) - government
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
• Already huge in East Asia thanks to RFID
cards used for transport and payment – now
migrated to RFID enabled cellphones
• ISO 14443 A; ISO 14443 B; Sony “type C” –
NFC is backwardly compatible with all three
• In 2008 NTT DoCoMo sold 47 Million RFID
enabled cellphones, leveraging RFID
infrastructure for transport and 120,000+ POS
RFID readers in Tokyo stores.
• West is laggard but will catch up as RFID
infrastructure goes in for POS and transport,
e.g. London Transport has installed a $1.6
Billion RFID system. Nokia says soon most of
its phones will have NFC as standard
A ubiquitous RFID
reader network…
at HF
RFID Cellphones
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
Examples of ultra low cost sensor tags - GE
The RFID sensor is placed on the outside of the milk carton
and allows for non invasive detection - it can detect the
spoilage through the carton wall
Dropping price to 2 cents by getting rid of the chip
Kovio ink jet printed, nanosilicon RFID in the lead
Samples are now available
ISO14443
1000
transistors
*
HF first because
it is over half of
the RFID market
value
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Three Generations of Active RFID
12
Generation 1 = Conventional active RFID
$450 Million in 2010
433MHz, 2.45GHz etc. ISO standards exist
E.g. car clicker $2bn so far, non-stop road toll $0.5 billion order recently,
military supplies $0.5 billion order recently
Generation 2 = Real Time Locating Systems
$160 Million in 2010
433MHz, 2.45GHz, UHF, WiFi, UWB, Ultrasound…
No orders above a few million dollars as yet. Acquisition frenzy and many
newcomers
Generation 3 = Mesh and Wireless Sensor Networks
Tags are readers. Form adhoc networks. Monitor condition.
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Wireless Sensor Networks
Tag
TagTag
Tag
Tag
Tag Tag
TagTag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag Tag
Tag
Backhaul of information to and
from computer system
But most of these gas guzzlers need energy harvesting
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Largest orders are placed by Government
• China National ID Card $6 billion HF
• ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active
(In 2006, New Jersey Turnpike Authority spent $28 million to replace
1.1 million old E-Z pass toll tags before their batteries ran out).
• Savi Technology for US Army $285 million 433 MHz active
• E-passport infrastructure UK and USA $30-$65 million HF
• Applied Digital river readers for US Army/ Bvl Hydro $45 m LF
• Gaming Partners casino chips Macao Philippines $8 million HF
And Government is behind other big business by creating laws eg tag
dogs in NZ, cows in Australia, passports in 70 countries
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
RFID is $5.6 billion in 2010 but fragmented
Over 1000 suppliers: top ten have half the business
Largest include these (double counting in the sales)
Gemplus –RFID cards & passports $500 million+
NXP – chips $500 million
ACS – Non stop road tolling and transport card system
integrators $500 million
Assa Abloy – secure access, livestock $400 million
Savi – military & heavy logistics systems integration
$200 million
Smartrac - Passport inlays $150 million
Allflex – livestock tags $110 million
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Pure play independent RFID companies
$50 + million
Allflex Australia
Savi US
Zebra US
ERG Australia
ASK France
$20-$50 million Over 100 people
AeroScout US/ Israel
Alien Technology US
SIRIT US
Impinj US
Ubisense UK
Under $20 million
About 500 companies
BUT
WATCH THE
TIDDLERS!
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
RFID spend by territory (excluding cards)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2016 2021
US
$ B
illi
on
s
ROW
Europe
East Asia
North America
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
The rise of RFID in Asia
China will become the biggest market for RFID. Indicators of this are as follows:
•In the last two years most new RFID manufacture capacity has been installed in
China and Korea
•The Chinese Government is a strong advocate for RFID, and has the power to
mandate companies to use it.
•China has already executed the largest RFID order by value (over one billion
national identification cards for adults – six billion dollars including systems) and
has a policy of making its own requirements throughout the RFID value chain as
soon as possible.
•Most products will be source tagged, and because China is one of the largest
exporters the tags will be supplied there
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Markets by Frequency for 2011
LF HF HF or NF UHF 433MHz UHF 2.45GHz Other Total
Number (Bn) 0.27 1.34 0 0.052 1.18 0.03 0.01 2.88
% 9.4% 46.5% 0.0% 1.8% 40.9% 1.0% 0.3% 100.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
LF HF HF or NF UHF 433MHz UHF 2.45GHz Other
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
RFID Company Value $M Sector Type Country
Affiliated Computer
Services
500 New York
road tolling
Active USA UHF active
Lockheed Martin 425 Military Active tags/ systems. US Army USA 433MHz active
ERG 48 Mass Transit Cards/ systems Italy, Philippines HF
Digital Angel 27 Fish 10 meter wide readers in rivers
to detect salmon. Bonneville
Power & US Army Corps of
Engineers
USA LF
Odin Technology 15 Military System integration USA UHF
UPM Raflatac 1 leading
to 15
Mass Transit Tickets Russia HF
Affiliated Computer
Services
14 Mass Transit Card system Marseilles France HF
Cubic
Transportation.
12 Mass transit Card system extension –
Washington
USA HF
Avery Dennison 10 Retail Passive tags
Marks & Spencer
UK UHF
Large orders – from all types of
industries
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
Impediments to RFID rollout
Irrational fear
Paranoid privacy advocates – including the European Community
Sloppy users
Retailers not always rational and their staff often technophobic
No decisions on standards/ mandates
Healthcare standards and mandates needed eg on drugs
Haggling delays NFC phones
Passive tag cost
Delay with printed passive tags
Active tag life
Battery life with active tags – but energy harvesting not yet ready for
wide use
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Value of tags by sector
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US
$ m
illio
n
Other
Retail, Consumer Goods
Passenger Transport, Automotive
Military
Manufacturing
Land and Sea Logistics, Postal
Healthcare and Pharmaceutical
Financial, Security, Safety
Books, Libraries, Archiving
Animals and Farming
Airline and Airports
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Nu
mb
er
billio
n
Chipless/Printed RFID Chip
Chipless RFID for highest volume – when?
710 billion tags by 2019; $27.59 Billion market
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
RFID is a fast growing business
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US
$ b
illi
on
Networking, Software, Services
Interrogators (incl.cellphones)
Tags - active/BAP
Tags - passive
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltdwww.IDTechEx.comCopyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
For more read:
RFID Forecasts, Players &
Opportunities 2011-2021
Active RFID & Sensors 2010-2020
Wireless Sensor Networks 2010-2020
Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
Stay updated with IDTechEx
Printed Electronics World
Daily Global news interpreted by experts www.PrintedElectronicsWorld.com
Printed Electronics Europe
The World’s largest event on Printed
Electronics. Santa Clara, CA, USA Dec
1-2
www.IDTechEx.com/peUSA
Wireless Sensor Networks & RTLS
Boston, USA, Nov 16-17
www.IDTechEx.com/Boston
Wireless Sensor Networks, RTLS
and RFID
Hong Kong, October 16-17
www.IDTechEx.com/hongkong
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