Wearables london - Reflections on 3 years as a Wearables analyst - James Hayward - IDTechEx

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Reflections on 3 years as a

wearables analyst

James Hayward

Senior Technology Analyst

[email protected]

@jhayward__

James Hayward

mailto:[email protected]

https://twitter.com/jhayward__


https://uk.linkedin.com/in/james-hayward-85938a6a


https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-hayward-85938a6a/


What is “wearable technology”?Define it?

Source: http://www.rdtaxsavers.com/articles/Wearable-Technology

Any new product based on

a scientific advancement

Any “new” electronic

products

Any electronic products

Too vague?

Too vague?

Too narrow

Any electronic products and

their surrounding ecosystemIncludes broader

trends and topics

Anything that is, could

be, is designed to be

worn on the body.

http://www.rdtaxsavers.com/articles/Wearable-Technology


What is “wearable technology”?

Sports analytics

Medical devicesFitness hardware

Headphones

Hearing aids

SmartwatchesJewellery Apparel

E-textiles

Health/home/pet

insurance

Automotive

interfaces

VR, AR, MR

Consumer

electronics

Watch

Audio

CommunicationMicroprocessors

Energy storage

Sensors

ActuatorsManufacturing

Elite sports

Enterprise

Enterprise

Healthcare &

medical

Power management

Energy harvesting

IoT

Smart home

Big data

Aging population

ECG/EEG/EMG

Optical

Displays

EAPs

IMUs

Chemical/gas

sensors

PPEIndustrial

Flexible PCBs

Stretchable

electronics

Flexible

electronics

Automation

New user

interfaces

Diabetes

care

Cardiac

devices

Skin

patches

Motion

capture

Clinical trials

Hearables

Implantables

VDAs

Pollution controlRobotics

Diagnostics


What is “wearable technology”?

Sports analytics

Medical devicesFitness hardware

Headphones

Hearing aids

SmartwatchesJewellery Apparel

E-textiles

Health/home/pet

insurance

Automotive

interfaces

VR, AR, MR

Consumer

electronics

Watch

Audio

CommunicationMicroprocessors

Energy storage

Sensors

ActuatorsManufacturing

Elite sports

Enterprise

Enterprise

Healthcare &

medical

Power management

Energy harvesting

IoT

Smart home

Big data

Aging population

ECG/EEG/EMG

Optical

Displays

EAPs

IMUs

Chemical/gas

sensors

PPEIndustrial

Flexible PCBs

Stretchable

electronics

Flexible

electronics

Automation

New user

interfaces

Diabetes

care

Cardiac

devices

Skin

patches

Motion

capture

Clinical trials

Hearables

Implantables

VDAs

Pollution controlRobotics

Diagnostics

Markets

Components

Materials

Products

Technologies

Trends / megatrends


Google trends

for “wearables”

Google trends

for “wearable

technology”

Chart Source

Google trends Google trends

0

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

80

CES 2014

WTS 2014

Apple watch

announced

CES 2015WTS

2015

CES

2017

CES 2016


IFI patents for

“wearables”

Google trends

for “wearables”

Google trends

for “wearable

technology”

Chart Source


Patent trends IFI claims

0

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

80

2004

CES 2014

WTS 2014

Apple watch

announced

CES 2015WTS

2015

CES

2017

CES 2016


0

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

80

Total spend

Funding + M&A

IFI patents for

“wearables”

Google trends

for “wearables”

Google trends

for “wearable

technology”

Chart Source


Patent trends IFI claims

Funding & #deals IDTechEx


0

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

80

Enabling technology?

• Smaller electronic components

• Decreasing power consumption

• Improving energy storage

• New sensor/actuator systems

• New form factors (stretch/flex)

Etc.


0

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

80• Electronic wristwatches (since 1970s)

• Music players (MP3, Walkman, etc.) >25 years

• Cardiac monitoring and pacing: >50 years

• Adoption of chest straps: ~2000 onwards

• First “smartphones”: late 1990s

Etc.

Incumbent products for

many years


Photo: KingWu, Getty Images


Image source: Warner Bros / Everett Collection

Wearables?


Total market outlook

10%

23%

11%

http://www.idtechex.com/wearable



>40 different product types




Winners and losers across the ecosystem




Not necessary any

correlation with sales!

Ride that hype


The hype curve in (late) 2016

Fitness

trackers

Smartwatches

Basic

earphones

HRM in

elite sport

Exoskeletons

Skin patch

monitoring

Heated clothing

Augmented

Reality

EEG (beyond

medical use)

ECG Hearing Aids

Virtual

Reality

Not necessary any

correlation with sales!

Non-invasive

CGM

Smart

clothing

Biometric

earphones

Automated

immunity

E-textiles

Basic

watches

Closed-loop diabetes

management

• The “wearables” hype is over.• From now on, sectors will be addressed individually

Smart

jewelry

Mixed

Reality


“As a technology analyst

… the fading hype is a

refreshing change, and

allows for a focus on the

key innovation and

adoption trends behind

wearable technology.”

18 December 2015


The fading hype affects some more than others

Critical effectLittle effect

Most companies with

wearable products

Strategic marketing/PR,

fundraising, etc. from these

companies

Wearable event

organisersCo-located event

organisers (most of them)

Most of the value chain

for these products

Journalists/analysts

covering “technology”

(most of them)

Journalists/analysts

covering wearables

Companies launching

a “wearable” productCall it something

different!

Some effect Large effect

Divisions of larger companies

set up to develop “wearables”


How it effects our business?

November 15-16, 2017

Santa Clara, CA, USA

May 10-11, 2017

Berlin, Germany Japan | Korea

IDTechEx.com/events


How it effects our business? IDTechEx.com/research




To conclude…

James Hayward

Senior Technology Analyst

[email protected]

+44 1223 810 266

James Hayward

@jhayward__

mailto:[email protected]





https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-hayward-85938a6a/