Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications by I.T. Strategies 51 Mill Street, Suite 2 Hanover, MA 02339 (781) 826-0200 williams@it-strategies.com boer@it-strategies.com www.it-strategies.com

© 2010 PRIMIR/NPES

FOREWORD Digital Printing has been the hot spot of the production printing industry for the past few years: While overall print volumes in the US have been declining and share of GDP has gone down, digital print volumes have grown. Digital print equipment is omnipresent today; the majority of print shops own digital devices, and news forums and trade-shows are dominated with digital printing topics. This has supported a perception that digital print is on the verge of taking over and eventually dominating production printing; obviously with huge implications to all members of the printing industry. With the “Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications” study, PRIMIR was looking for a broad assessment of the future of digital print and the implications to the industry: Will Digital eventually take over the majority of printed volume? What does it mean for analog print? Will analog disappear or will both technologies co-exist, at what pace will change happen, and where is it most likely to occur first? To account for the fragmented nature of production printing with its diverse applications from newspapers through packaging to collateral, PRIMIR asked that the study be done at the application level, to highlight the specific situation and trends in each market segment, and to also compare and come up with a combined view for the printing industry. I.T. Strategies was selected as research partner due to their long and deep understanding of the printing industry and their research methodology. We believe that they did meet the expectations and presented a study with a wealth of market information and analysis, providing valuable insights to the various market segments. There are a number of significant findings in this study. Some are contrary to preconceived notions, while others point to exciting new opportunities for digital printing. We believe that this is a seminal study that will be referenced for many years, helping to develop a road map for the industry as digital printing enters the next phase of development and integration. We would also like to thank the PRIMIR task force members for their engagement in numerous conversations over many months. And, last but not least, we would like to thank the PRIMIR staff for their tireless work and guidance from proposal through final presentation and delivery of the report, without which this would not have happened. Andrew Gordon Paul Foszcz Georg Bernskoetter (formerly with manroland, Inc.) Hewlett-Packard GmbH December 2010

Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications

Task Force

Co-Chairs: Andrew Gordon, Paul Foszcz and Georg Bernskoetter

Georg Bernskoetter Hewlett-Packard GmbH Hans Bjorkman International Paper Mylene Bourgeois Domtar Inc. Laura Butler Xerox Corporation Douglas Ehmann The Sheridan Group David Eisenstadt Hewlett Packard Edward I. Farley Unisource Worldwide Paul Foszcz (formerly with manroland, Inc.) Andrew Gordon Paul Jaynes Eastman Kodak Company

Gavin Jordan-Smith Xerox Corporation Dianne Linderoth Unisource Worldwide James M. Luttrell X-Rite, Incorporated Richard A. Mazur Eastman Kodak Company Colleen Molkenbur Canon USA Si Nguyen Duplo USA Corporation Peter Ruth Polytype Ltd. Joseph S. Schember Canon USA Inc. Trish Siegel Hewlett Packard Mike Troy FUJIFILM North America Corporation

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications i

Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications

Table of Contents

I. Executive Summary .........................................................................................................1Study Objectives and Methodology ........................................................................1Scope .......................................................................................................................2Key Study Findings .................................................................................................2Individual Application Findings ..............................................................................4

Book Printing.....................................................................................................4Catalogs .............................................................................................................5Direct Mail.........................................................................................................6Flexible Packaging ............................................................................................7Folding Cartons .................................................................................................9Labels...............................................................................................................10Magazines ........................................................................................................12Manuals ...........................................................................................................14Marketing Collateral........................................................................................15Newspapers......................................................................................................16Specialty Printing ............................................................................................18Transaction/Financial Printing ........................................................................19

Application Comparison........................................................................................20Accelerating Digital Printing.................................................................................22Total Cost of Ownership Measurement.................................................................26Forecast..................................................................................................................27Conclusion .............................................................................................................29Implications for Members .....................................................................................31Future Research Recommendations ......................................................................32

II. Introduction & Methodology ........................................................................................35Introduction ...........................................................................................................35Scope .....................................................................................................................36Objectives ..............................................................................................................36Methodology..........................................................................................................37

Industry Research ............................................................................................37About Market Sizing .......................................................................................38Print Service Provider and Specifier Surveys..................................................39

III. Forecast........................................................................................................................41Introduction ...........................................................................................................41Production Page Forecast, North America ............................................................43North American Unit Projection Model ................................................................47

IV. Comparing Applications: Where are the Opportunities for Digital Production Printing?....................................................................................................................55

Introduction ...........................................................................................................55

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications ii

Print Outlook .........................................................................................................55Print Service Providers ....................................................................................55Specifiers .........................................................................................................57

Tipping Points........................................................................................................58Page Volumes ........................................................................................................59Page Volume Growth and Decline ........................................................................60Conclusion .............................................................................................................63The Bottom Line....................................................................................................64

V. Total Cost of Ownership...............................................................................................65Introduction ...........................................................................................................65How Users Measure Cost of Ownership/Cost of Print..........................................66

Fixed Costs ......................................................................................................67Variable Costs..................................................................................................69

Cost Factors Often Overlooked .............................................................................71Impact of Volume/Breakpoints for Needing Additional Equipment...............71Electricity.........................................................................................................72Shifts and Utilization .......................................................................................72Space/Storage ..................................................................................................73

Decision Process: Analog or Digital?...................................................................74Conclusion .............................................................................................................75

VI. Drivers and Barriers ....................................................................................................77Factors Influencing a Tip from Analog to Digital Production Printing ................80

Technology Factors .........................................................................................81Market Factors .................................................................................................82Economic Factors ............................................................................................83Regulatory/Social Factors................................................................................85Summary of Key Drivers to Tip Analog to Digital Print ................................86

Factors Slowing/Preventing a Tip from Analog to Digital Production Printing ...87Technology Factors .........................................................................................88Market Factors .................................................................................................89Economic Factors ............................................................................................90Regulatory/Social Factors................................................................................92Summary of Key Barriers Slowing or Preventing the Tip From Analog to Digital Print .....................................................................................................93

The Bottom Line on Drivers and Barriers .............................................................94VII. Books .........................................................................................................................95

Chapter Summary ..................................................................................................95Definition...............................................................................................................96Methodology for Book Analysis ...........................................................................97State of the Book Printing Market .........................................................................98

Print Service Provider Perspective ..................................................................99Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................102Market Trends................................................................................................104

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................105Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................107Why Tip? .......................................................................................................108

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications iii

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................110Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................112Implications for Members ...................................................................................113

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................113Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................113Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................113Print Service Providers ..................................................................................114

Books Conclusion................................................................................................114VIII. Catalogs ..................................................................................................................117

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................117Definition.............................................................................................................118Methodology for Catalog Analysis......................................................................119State of the Catalog Printing Market ...................................................................120

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................120Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................124Market Trends................................................................................................126

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................127Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................128Why Tip? .......................................................................................................131

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................133Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................137Implications for Members ...................................................................................138

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................138Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................139Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................139Print Service Providers ..................................................................................140

Catalogs Conclusion ............................................................................................140IX. Direct Mail ................................................................................................................143

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................143Definition.............................................................................................................144Methodology for Direct Mail Analysis ...............................................................144State of the Direct Mail Printing Market .............................................................145

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................146Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................149Market Trends................................................................................................151

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................152Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................154Why Tip? .......................................................................................................156

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................158Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................160Implications for Members ...................................................................................161

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................161Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................162Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................162Print Service Providers ..................................................................................162

Direct Mail Conclusion .......................................................................................163

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications iv

X. Labels..........................................................................................................................165Chapter Summary ................................................................................................165Definition.............................................................................................................167Methodology for Label Analysis .........................................................................167State of the Labels Printing Market .....................................................................168

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................169Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................173Market Trends................................................................................................175

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................176Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................177Why Tip? .......................................................................................................179

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................181Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................183Implications for Members ...................................................................................184

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................184Paper and Film Substrate Manufacturers.......................................................185Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................185Print Service Providers ..................................................................................185

Labels Conclusion ...............................................................................................186XI. Magazines..................................................................................................................187

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................187Definition.............................................................................................................189Methodology for Magazine Analysis ..................................................................189State of the Magazine Printing Market................................................................190

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................191Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................194Market Trends................................................................................................197

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................198Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................200Why Tip? .......................................................................................................201

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................204Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................207Implications for Members ...................................................................................208

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................208Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................209Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................210Print Service Providers ..................................................................................210

Magazines Conclusion.........................................................................................211XII. Manuals ....................................................................................................................213

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................213Definition.............................................................................................................214Methodology for Manuals Analysis ....................................................................215State of the Manual Printing Market ...................................................................215

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................216Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................219Market Trends................................................................................................221

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications v

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................223Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................224Why Tip? .......................................................................................................227

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................228Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................230Implications for Members ...................................................................................231

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................231Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................231Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................231Print Service Providers ..................................................................................232

Manuals Conclusion ............................................................................................232XIII. Marketing Collateral ...............................................................................................233

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................233Definition.............................................................................................................234Methodology for Marketing Collateral Analysis.................................................235State of the Marketing Collateral Printing Market ..............................................236

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................237Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................240Market Trends................................................................................................242

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................244Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................245Why Tip? .......................................................................................................248

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................250Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................251Implications for Members ...................................................................................253

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................253Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................253Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................254Print Service Providers ..................................................................................254

Marketing Collateral Conclusion.........................................................................255XIV. Newspapers.............................................................................................................257

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................257Definition.............................................................................................................258Methodology for Newspaper Analysis ................................................................259State of the Newspaper Printing Market..............................................................260

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................261Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................263Market Trends................................................................................................265

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................267Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................268Why Tip? .......................................................................................................270

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................272Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................275Implications for Members ...................................................................................277

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................277Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................277

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications vi

Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................278Print Service Providers ..................................................................................278

Newspapers Conclusion ......................................................................................279XV. Flexible packaging ...................................................................................................281

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................281Definition.............................................................................................................282Methodology for Flexible Packaging Analysis ...................................................283State of the Flexible Packaging Printing Market.................................................284

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................284Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................287Market Trends................................................................................................289

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................289Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................290Why Tip? .......................................................................................................292

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................293Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................295Implications for Members ...................................................................................296

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................296Film and Paper Manufacturers ......................................................................296Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................296Print Service Providers ..................................................................................296

Flexible Packaging Conclusion ...........................................................................297XVI. Folding Cartons ......................................................................................................299

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................299Definition.............................................................................................................301Methodology for Folding Carton Analysis..........................................................301State of the Folding Cartons Printing Market......................................................302

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................303Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................306Market Trends................................................................................................308

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................309Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................310Why Tip? .......................................................................................................311

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................313Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................315Implications for Members ...................................................................................316

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................316Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................316Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................316Print Service Providers ..................................................................................316

Folding Cartons Conclusion ................................................................................317XVII. Specialty Printing ..................................................................................................319

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................319Definition.............................................................................................................319Methodology for Specialty Printing Analysis .....................................................320State of the Specialty Printing Market.................................................................321

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications vii

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................321Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................324Market Trends................................................................................................326

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................328Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................329Why Tip? .......................................................................................................331

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................332Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................334Implications for Members ...................................................................................335

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................335Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................336Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................336Print Service Providers ..................................................................................336

Specialty Printing Conclusion .............................................................................337XVIII. Transaction/Financial Statements ........................................................................339

Chapter Summary ................................................................................................339Definition.............................................................................................................340Methodology for Financial/Transaction Analysis ...............................................340State of the Transaction/Financial Statements Printing Market ..........................341

Print Service Provider Perspective ................................................................343Specifier Perspective .....................................................................................346Market Trends................................................................................................348

Tipping Point .......................................................................................................350Why Not Tip? ................................................................................................352Why Tip? .......................................................................................................353

Application Sizing ...............................................................................................355Digital Adoption Lifecycle ..................................................................................357Implications for Members ...................................................................................358

Digital Production Printer Manufacturers .....................................................358Paper Manufacturers......................................................................................358Analog Printing Equipment and Supplies Manufacturers .............................359Print Service Providers ..................................................................................359

Transaction/Financial Statements Conclusion.....................................................360XIX.Conclusions.............................................................................................................361

Study Objectives..................................................................................................361Page Volumes ......................................................................................................361Barriers and Enablers to Digital Production Printing ..........................................363

Barriers ..........................................................................................................363Enablers .........................................................................................................365

Focus for Digital Production Printing and Supplies Manufacturers....................368The Final Word....................................................................................................369

XX. Implications for Members........................................................................................371Implications for Analog Press Manufacturers .....................................................371Implications for Analog Ink, Plate, Chemistry, and Other Analog Consumable Manufacturers ......................................................................................................372Implications for Digital Production Printer Manufacturers.................................372

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications viii

Implications for Digital Production Printer Consumable Manufacturers............373Implications for Paper and Substrate Manufacturers...........................................374Implications for Print Service Providers .............................................................375The Bottom Line..................................................................................................376

Appendix A: Glossary of Terms......................................................................................377Appendix B: Print Service Provider E-mail Survey ........................................................381Appendix C: Printer Service Provider Telephone Discussion Guide..............................387Appendix D: Print Specifier E-mail Survey ....................................................................391Appendix E: Print Specifier Telephone Discussion Guide .............................................413

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications ix

Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications

Table of Figures

Exhibit I-1 Industry Research: Who We Interviewed ......................................................................................1Exhibit I-2 Digital Printing Share of Production Pages, North America, 2009-2014......................................3Exhibit I-3 Book Printing Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014..........................................4Exhibit I-4 Catalog Printing Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014 ......................................5Exhibit I-5 Direct Mail Printing Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014 ................................7Exhibit I-6 Flexible Printing Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014 .....................................8Exhibit I-7 Folding Cartons Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014.......................................9Exhibit I-8 Label Printing Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014 .......................................10Exhibit I-9 Magazine Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014...............................................13Exhibit I-10 Manual Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014 ................................................14Exhibit I-11 Marketing Collateral Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014 ...........................15Exhibit I-12 Newspaper Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014 ..........................................17Exhibit I-13 Specialty Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014..............................................18Exhibit I-14 Transaction/Financial Page Volume Projections, North America, 2009-2014..........................20Exhibit I-15 Print Service Providers: Do you see a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production

Printing? North America, 2010.......................................................................................................21Exhibit I-16 Letter-size, Simplex Production Pages by Print Technology Type, North America, 2009 ......22Exhibit I-17 Digital Printing Share of Production Print, North America, 2009 and 2014.............................23Exhibit I-18 Print Service Providers: Factors Driving Digital Page Volume Growth North America, 2010

..........................................................................................................................................................24Exhibit I-19 Print Service Providers: Important Influencing Tipping Point Factors in Accelerating a Shift

from Analog to Digital Print Volumes, North America, 2010.........................................................25Exhibit I-20 Letter-size, Simplex Production Pages, North America, 2007-2014.........................................28Exhibit I-21 Equivalent New Production Printing Systems Needed Annually to Serve Production Page

Volumes, North America, 2009-2014..............................................................................................29Exhibit I-22 Tipping Points by Application, North America, 2009, 2014, 2020...........................................31Exhibit II-1 Primary Research: Who We Interviewed, 2010 .........................................................................37Exhibit III-1 Letter-size, Simplex Production Pages, North America, 2007-2014 ........................................44Exhibit III-2 North American Production Page Volume Forecast by Application, 2009-2014.....................45Exhibit III-3 Digital Printing Share of Total Production Pages, North America, 2009-2014........................46Exhibit III-4 Analog Print Technology Assumptions by Applications, North America, 2009......................48Exhibit III-5 Digital Print Technology Assumptions by Applications, North America, 2009 ......................48

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications x

Exhibit III-6 Unit and Installed Base Forecast Model, Analog and Digital Production Printers, North

America, 2009-2014.........................................................................................................................50Exhibit III-7 Analog Press Unit Sales (towers/engines) Needed to Meet Page Volume Requirements, North

America, 2007-2014.........................................................................................................................51Exhibit III- 8 Digital Production Printer Units Sales (engines) Needed to Meet Page Volume Requirements,

North America, 2007-2014 .............................................................................................................52Exhibit III-9 Relative Scale of Projected Unit Demand by Technology, North America, 2014....................53Exhibit IV-1 Print Service Providers: In the Next Four Years Will Your Total Production Print Volume

Increase, Decrease or Stay the Same? North America, 2010..........................................................56Exhibit IV-2 Specfiers: In the Next Four Years Will Your Total Production Print Volume Increase,

Decrease or Stay the Same? North America, 2010.........................................................................57Exhibit IV-3 Print Service Providers: Do You See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production

Printing? North America, 2010.......................................................................................................58Exhibit IV-4 Letter-Size, Simplex, Production Pages by Print Technology Type, North America, 2009 ....60Exhibit IV-5 Growth Rate Trends - Analog vs. Digital Production Pages, North America, 2009-2014....61Exhibit IV-6 Combined Analog and Digital Production Page Volume Growth/Decline by Application

Between 2009 and 2014, North America.........................................................................................62Exhibit IV-7 Digital Production Page Volume by Application, North America, 2009-2014 .......................62Exhibit IV-8 Incremental Digital Pages Added by Application between 2009 and 2014, North America ..63Exhibit V-1 Print Service Providers: Factors Slowing/Preventing Conversion from Analog to Digital Print,

North America, 2010 by Number of Responses .............................................................................65Exhibit V-2 Print Service Providers: Expected Remaining Life of Presses? North America, 2010............68Exhibit V-3 Hypothetical Analog Ink vs. Digital Printing Toner/Ink Jet Ink Cost by Run Length, North

America, 2010..................................................................................................................................70Exhibit VI-1 Digital Printing Share of Production Print, North America, 2009 and 2014 ............................77Exhibit VI-2 Print Service Providers: Page Volume Trends - Do you Expect Growth or a Decline in

Analog and Digitally Printed Pages? North America, 2010 ............................................................78Exhibit VI-3 Print Service Providers: Factors Driving Digital Page Volume Growth, North America, 2010

..........................................................................................................................................................79Exhibit VI-4 Print Service Providers: Important Influencing Tipping Point Factors in Accelerating a Shift

from Analog to Digital Print Volumes, North America, 2010.........................................................80Exhibit VI-5 Print Service Providers: Technology Drivers Required to Tip Analog to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.........................................................................................................82Exhibit VI-6 Print Service Providers: Market Drivers Required to Tip Analog to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.........................................................................................................83Exhibit VI-7 Print Service Providers: Economic Drivers Required to Tip Analog to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.........................................................................................................84

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xi

Exhibit VI-8 Print Service Providers: Social/regulatory Drivers Required to Tip Analog to Digital

Production Printing, North America, 2010 ......................................................................................85Exhibit VI-9 Print Service Providers: Important Tipping Point Factors in Slowing/Preventing a Shift from

Analog to Digital Print Volumes, North America, 2010 .................................................................87Exhibit VI-10 Print Service Providers: Technology Barriers Slowing or Preventing a Tip from Analog to

Digital Production Printing, North America, 2010 ..........................................................................88Exhibit VI-11 Print Service Providers: Market Barriers Slowing or Preventing a Tip from Analog to

Digital Production Printing, North America, 2010 ..........................................................................89Exhibit VI-12 Print Service Providers: Economic Barriers Slowing or Preventing a Tip from Analog to

Digital Production Printing, North America, 2010 ..........................................................................91Exhibit VI-13 Print Service Providers: Regulatory/Social Barriers Slowing or Preventing a Tip from

Analog to Digital Production Printing, North America, 2010 .........................................................93Exhibit VII-1 Book Respondents Area of Focus by Sub-segment, North America, 2010.............................97Exhibit VII-2 North American Book Expenditures at Retail, 2009 ...............................................................99Exhibit VII-3 Print Service Providers: Book Printing Volumes 2010-2014, North America.....................100Exhibit VII-4 Print Service Providers: Book Printing Volumes Why Declining? North America, 2010...101Exhibit VII-5 Print Service Providers: Book Printing Volumes Why Growing? North America, 2010 ....102Exhibit VII-6 Specifiers: Book Printing Volumes 2010-2014, North America..........................................102Exhibit VII-7 Specifiers: Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog Volumes or Incremental? North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................103Exhibit VII-8 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010 ...................................104Exhibit VII-9 Specifiers: Offer Electronic Books Replacement vs. Incremental, North America, 2010 ....104Exhibit VII-10 Specifiers: In Four Years, % of Book Print Volume Replaced by Electronic/Internet

Books? North America, 2010........................................................................................................105Exhibit VII-11 Print Service Providers: Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production Printing, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................106Exhibit VII-12 Print Service Providers: Book Printing Reasons Against Tip to Digital Production Printing,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................108Exhibit VII-13 Book Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers Summary, North America, 2010 .......................109Exhibit VII-14 Print Service Providers: Book Printing Reasons for Tip to Digital Production Print, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................110Exhibit VII-15 Range of Books Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009.....................................111Exhibit VII-16 Books Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, North America, 2007- 2014

........................................................................................................................................................111Exhibit VII - 17 Digital Production Book Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................112Exhibit VIII-1 Print Service Providers: Catalog Print Volumes 2010-2014, North America.....................121

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xii

Exhibit VIII-2 Print Service Providers: Catalog Printing Volumes Why Declining? North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................122Exhibit VIII-3 Print Service Providers: Catalog Printing Volumes Why Growing? North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................123Exhibit VIII-4 Specifiers: Catalog Printing Volumes 2010-2014, North America.....................................124Exhibit VIII-5 Specifiers: Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog or Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................125Exhibit VIII-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010 ..................................125Exhibit VIII-7 Specifiers: Offer Electronic Catalogs Replacement vs. Incremental, North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................126Exhibit VIII-8 Specifiers: In Four Years, % of Catalog Print Volume Replaced by Electronic/Internet

Catalogs? North America, 2010....................................................................................................127Exhibit VIII-9 Print Service Providers: Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production Printing, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................128Exhibit VIII-10 Print Service Providers: Catalog Printing Reasons Against Tip to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.......................................................................................................130Exhibit VIII-11 Catalog Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010...................................131Exhibit VIII-12 Print Service Providers: Catalog Printing Reasons for Tip to Digital Production Printing,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................133Exhibit VIII-13 Range of Catalog Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009 .................................135Exhibit VIII-14 Catalog Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, North America, 2007-

2014................................................................................................................................................136Exhibit VIII-15 Digital Production Catalog Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................138Exhibit IX-1 Print Service Providers: Direct Mail Print Volumes 2010-2014 ...........................................147Exhibit IX-2 Print Service Providers: Direct Mail Printing Volumes Why Declining? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................147Exhibit IX-3 Print Service Providers: Direct Mail Printing Volumes Why Growing? North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................148Exhibit IX-4 Specifiers: Direct Mail Printing Volumes 2010 to 2014? North America............................149Exhibit IX-5 Specifiers: Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog or Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................150Exhibit IX-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in Two Years, North America, 2010 ...............................150Exhibit IX-7 Specifiers: Offer Electronic Direct Mail Replacement vs. Incremental, North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................151Exhibit IX-8 Specifiers: In Four years, % of Direct Mail Print Volume Replaced by Electronic/Internet

Direct Mail? North America, 2010 ...............................................................................................152

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xiii

Exhibit IX-9 Print Service Providers: Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production Printing, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................153Exhibit IX-10 Print Service Providers: Direct Mail Printing Reasons Against Tip to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.......................................................................................................155Exhibit IX-11 Direct mail Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010................................156Exhibit IX-12 Print Service Providers: Direct Mail Printing Reasons for Tip to Digital Production Print,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................157Exhibit IX-13 Range of Direct Mail Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009..............................159Exhibit IX-14 Direct Mail Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, 2007-2014, North

America..........................................................................................................................................159Exhibit IX-15 Digital Production Direct Mail Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................161Exhibit X-1 Print Service Providers; are your Label Printing Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining

Between Now and 2014? North America .....................................................................................170Exhibit X-2 Print Service Providers: Labels Printing Volumes if Declining, Why? North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................171Exhibit X-3 Print Service Providers: Labels Printing Volumes if Growing, Why? North America, 2010 172Exhibit X-4 Specifiers: Are your Label Print Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining Between Now and

2014? North America, 2010..........................................................................................................173Exhibit X-5 Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog Volumes, or is it Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................174Exhibit X-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010 .......................................175Exhibit X-7 Print Service Providers Who See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production Printing,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................176Exhibit X-8 Print Service Providers, Why Won’t Labels Printing Tip from Analog to Digital Production

Print? North America, 2010 ..........................................................................................................179Exhibit X-9 Labels Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers...............................................................................180Exhibit X-10 Print Service Providers, Why Will Labels Printing Tip from Analog to Digital Production

Print? North America, 2010 ..........................................................................................................181Exhibit X-11 Range of Labels Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009.......................................182Exhibit X-12 Labels Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, 2007-2014, North America

........................................................................................................................................................183Exhibit X-13 Digital Production Labels Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................184Exhibit XI-1 Print Service Providers: Are your Magazine Print Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining

Between Now and 2014? North America, 2010 ...........................................................................192

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xiv

Exhibit XI-2 Print Service Providers: Magazine Printing Volumes if Declining, Why? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................193Exhibit XI-3 Print Service Providers: Magazine Printing Volumes if Growing, Why? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................193Exhibit XI-4 Specifiers; are your Magazine Print Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining Between Now

and 2014? North America, 2010 ...................................................................................................195Exhibit XI-5 Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog Volumes, or is it Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................196Exhibit XI-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 20110....................................196Exhibit XI-7 Specifiers: Offer Electronic Magazines, Replacement vs. Incremental, North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................197Exhibit XI-8 Specifiers: In Four Years, % of Magazine Print Volume Replaced by Electronic/Internet

Magazines? North America, 2010 ................................................................................................198Exhibit XI-9 Respondents Who See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production Printing, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................199Exhibit XI-10 Print Service Providers, Why Will Magazine Printing Not Tip from Analog to Digital

Production Print? North America, 2010 .......................................................................................201Exhibit XI-11 Magazine Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010 ..................................202Exhibit XI-12 Print Service Providers, Why Will Magazine Printing Tip from Analog to Digital Production

Print? North America, 2010 ...........................................................................................................203Exhibit XI-13 Range of Magazine Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009 ................................205Exhibit XI-14 Magazine Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, 2007-2014, North

America..........................................................................................................................................206Exhibit XI-15 Digital Production Magazine Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................208Exhibit XII-1 Primary Market Focus of Manual Printing, North America, 2010........................................214Exhibit XII-2 Print Service Providers: are your Manual Print Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining

Between Now and 2014? North America .....................................................................................217Exhibit XII-3 Printer Service Providers: Manuals Printing Volumes if Declining, Why? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................218Exhibit XII-4 Printer Service Providers: Manuals Printing Volumes if Growing, Why? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................219Exhibit XII-5 Specifiers, are your Manual Print Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining Between Now and

2014? North America 2010...........................................................................................................220Exhibit XII-6 Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog Volumes, or is it Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................220Exhibit XII-7 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010 ...................................221

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xv

Exhibit XII-8 Specifiers: Electronic Manuals, Replacement vs. Incremental, North America 2010 ..........222Exhibit XII-9 Specifiers, in Four Years, What % of your Manual Print Volume will be Replaced by

Electronic/Internet Manuals? North America, 2010 ......................................................................222Exhibit XII-10 Print Service Providers Who See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.......................................................................................................224Exhibit XII-11 Print Service Providers, Why Won’t Manual Printing Tip from Analog to Digital Production

Print? North America, 2010 ...........................................................................................................226Exhibit XII-12 Manual Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers ........................................................................227Exhibit XII-13 Print Service Providers, Why Will Manual Printing Tip from Analog to Digital Production

Print? North America, 2010 ..........................................................................................................228Exhibit XII-14 Range of Manual Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009...................................229Exhibit XII-15 Manuals Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, 2007-2014, North

America..........................................................................................................................................229Exhibit XII-16 Digital Production Manuals Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................230Exhibit XIII-1 Print Service Providers: Are your Marketing Collateral Printing Volumes Growing, Stable,

or Declining Between Now and 2014? North America, 2010 ......................................................237Exhibit XIII-2 Print Service Providers: Marketing Collateral Printing Volumes if Declining, Why? North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................238Exhibit XIII-3 Print Service Providers: Marketing Collateral Printing Volumes if Growing, Why? North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................239Exhibit XIII-4 Specifiers: Are your Marketing Collateral Print Volumes Growing, stable, or Declining

Between Now and 2014? North America, 2010 ............................................................................240Exhibit XIII-5 Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog Volumes, or is it Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................241Exhibit XIII-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010 ..................................242Exhibit XIII-7 Specifiers: Electronic Marketing Collateral Replacement vs. Incremental, North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................243Exhibit XIII-8 Specifiers, in Four Years, What % of your Marketing Collateral Print Volume Will be

Replaced by Electronic/Internet Marketing Collateral? North America, 2010 .............................244Exhibit XIII-9 Print Service Providers Who See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.......................................................................................................245Exhibit XIII-10 Print Service Providers, Why Won’t Marketing Collateral Printing Tip from Analog to

Digital Production Print? North America, 2010 ............................................................................247Exhibit XIII - 11 Marketing Collateral Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010............248Exhibit XIII-12 Print Service Providers, Why will Marketing Collateral Printing Tip from Analog to Digital

Production Print? North America, 2010 ........................................................................................249

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xvi

Exhibit XIII-13 Range of Marketing Collateral Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009 ............250Exhibit XIII-14 Marketing Collateral Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, North

America, 2007-2014.......................................................................................................................251Exhibit XIII-15 Digital Production Marketing Collateral Printing Volume: Technology Adoption

Lifecycle, North America, 2010 ....................................................................................................252Exhibit XIV-1 Print Service Providers: Are your Newspaper Print Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining

Between now and 2014? North America, 2010 .............................................................................261Exhibit XIV-2 Print Service Providers: Newspaper Printing Volumes if Declining, Why? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................262Exhibit XIV-3 Print Service Providers: Newspaper Printing Volumes if Growing, Why? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................263Exhibit XIV-4 Specifiers: are your Newspaper Print Volumes Growing, Stable, or Declining Between Now

and 2014? North America, 2010 ....................................................................................................263Exhibit XIV-5 Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog Volumes, or is it Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................264Exhibit XIV-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010..................................265Exhibit XIV-7 Specifiers, Electronic Newspapers, Replacement vs. Incremental, North America, 2010 ..266Exhibit XIV-8 Specifiers, in Four Years, What % of your Newspaper Print Volume Will be Replaced by

Electronic/Internet Newspapers? North America, 2010 ................................................................266Exhibit XIV-9 Print Service Providers Who See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.......................................................................................................268Exhibit XIV-10 Print Service Providers, Why Won’t Newspaper Printing Tip from Analog to Digital

Production Print? North America, 2010 ........................................................................................270Exhibit XIV-11 Newspaper Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010.............................271Exhibit XIV-12 Print Service Providers, Why Will Newspaper Printing Tip from Analog to Digital

Production Print? North America, 2010 ........................................................................................272Exhibit XIV-13 Range of Newspaper Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009 ...........................273Exhibit XIV-14 Newspaper Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, North America, 2007-

2014................................................................................................................................................274Exhibit XIV-15 Digital Production Newspaper Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................276Exhibit XV-1 Print Service Providers: Flexible Packaging Printing Volumes 2010-2014, North America

........................................................................................................................................................285Exhibit XV-2 Print Service Providers: Flexible Packaging Printing Volumes Why Declining? North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................286Exhibit XV-3 Print Service Providers: Flexible Packaging Printing Volumes Why Growing? North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................286

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xvii

Exhibit XV-4 Specifiers: Flexible Packaging Printing Volumes, North America, 2010-2014 ..................287Exhibit XV-5 Specifiers: Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog or Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................288Exhibit XV-6 Specifiers: Flexible Packaging Digital Print Volumes in Two Years, North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................288Exhibit XV-7 Print Service Providers: Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production Printing, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................290Exhibit XV-8 Print Service Providers: Flexible Packaging Reasons Against Tip to Digital Production

Printing North America, 2010........................................................................................................291Exhibit XV-9 Flexible Packaging Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010 ...................292Exhibit XV-10 Print Service Providers: Flexible Packaging Reasons for Tip to Digital Production Print,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................293Exhibit XV-11 Range of Flexible Packaging Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009................294Exhibit XV-12 Flexible Packaging Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, North

America, 2007-2014.......................................................................................................................294Exhibit XV-13 Digital Production Flexible Packaging Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................295Exhibit XVI-1 Print Service Providers: Folding Carton Printing Volumes, North America, 2010-2014 ..304Exhibit XVI-2 Print Service Providers: Folding Carton Printing Volumes Why Declining? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................304Exhibit XVI-3 Print Service Providers: Folding Carton Printing Volumes Why Growing? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................305Exhibit XVI-4 Specifiers: Folding Carton Printing Volumes, North America, 2010-2014........................306Exhibit XVI-5 Specifiers: Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog or Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................307Exhibit XVI-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in Two Years, North America, 2010 .............................308Exhibit XVI-7 Print Service Providers: Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production Printing, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................309Exhibit XVI-8 Print Service Providers: Folding Cartons Reasons Against Tip to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.......................................................................................................311Exhibit XVI-9 Folding Cartons Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010 .......................312Exhibit XVI-10 Print Service Providers: Folding Cartons Printing Reasons for Tip to Digital Production

Print, North America, 2010............................................................................................................313Exhibit XVI-11 Range of Folding Cartons Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009 ...................314Exhibit XVI-12 Folding Cartons Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, North America,

2007-2014 ......................................................................................................................................314

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xviii

Exhibit XVI-13 Digital Production Folding Cartons Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................315Exhibit XVII-1 Print Service Providers: Specialty Printing Print Volumes 2010-2014, America ..............322Exhibit XVII-2 Print Service Providers: Specialty Printing Volumes Why Declining? North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................323Exhibit XVII-3 Print Service Providers: Specialty Printing Why Growing? North America, 2010............324Exhibit XVII-4 Specifiers: Specialty Printing Print Volumes, 2010-2014? North America .......................325Exhibit XVII-5 Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog, Incremental? North America, 2010 ..........325Exhibit XVII-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010 .................................326Exhibit XVII-7 Specifiers: Electronic Display of Specialty Printing Applications, Replacement Vs.

Incremental, North America, 2010 ................................................................................................327Exhibit XVII-8 Specifiers, in Four Years, What % of your Specialty Printing Print Volume will be

Replaced by Electronic/Internet Specialty Printing? North America, 2010 ..................................328Exhibit XVII-9 Print Service Providers: Who See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production

Printing North America, 2010........................................................................................................329Exhibit XVII-10 Print Service Providers: Why Won’t Specialty Printing Tip from Analog to Digital

Production Print? North America, 2010 .......................................................................................330Exhibit XVII-11 Specialty Printing Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America, 2010.................331Exhibit XVII-12 Print Service Providers, Why Will Specialty Printing Tip from Analog to Digital

Production Print? North America, 2010 ........................................................................................332Exhibit XVII-13 Range of Specialty Printing Page Production Volumes, North America, 2009 ...............333Exhibit XVII-14 Specialty Printing Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume Forecast, North

America, 2007-2014.......................................................................................................................334Exhibit XVII-15 Digital Production Specialty Printing Volume: Technology Adoption Lifecycle, North

America, 2010................................................................................................................................335Exhibit XVIII-1 Print Service Providers: Transaction/Financial Statements Printing Volumes, 2010-2014,

North America................................................................................................................................344Exhibit XVIII-2 Print Service Providers: Transaction/Financial Statements Printing Volumes Why

Declining? North America, 2010 ...................................................................................................345Exhibit XVIII-3 Print Service Providers: Transaction/Financial Statements Printing Volumes Why

Growing? North America, 2010.....................................................................................................346Exhibit XVIII-4 Specifiers: Transaction/Financial Statements Print Volumes 2010-2014, North America

........................................................................................................................................................347Exhibit XVIII-5 Specifiers: Is Digital Production Print Replacing Analog or Incremental? North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................347Exhibit XVIII-6 Specifiers: Digital Print Volumes in 2 Years, North America, 2010 ................................348

PRIMIR: Megatrends in Digital Printing Applications xix

Exhibit XVIII-7 Specifiers: Electronic Transaction/Financial Statements, Replacement vs. Incremental,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................349Exhibit XVIII-8 Specifiers, in Four Years, What % of your Transaction/Financial Statements Print Volume

Will be Replaced by Electronic/Internet Transaction/Financial Statements? North America, 2010

........................................................................................................................................................350Exhibit XVIII-9 Print Service Providers: Who See a Tipping Point from Analog to Digital Production

Printing, North America, 2010.......................................................................................................351Exhibit XVIII-10 Print Service Providers: Why Won’t Transaction/Financial Statements Printing Tip from

Analog to Digital Production Print? North America, 2010 ...........................................................353Exhibit XVIII-11 Transaction/Financial Statements Tipping Point Drivers and Barriers, North America,

2010................................................................................................................................................354Exhibit XVIII-12 Print Service Providers: Why Will Transaction/Financial Statements Printing Tip from

Analog to Digital Production Print? North America, 2010 ...........................................................355Exhibit XVIII-13 Range of Transaction/Financial Statements Page Production Volumes, North America,

2009................................................................................................................................................356Exhibit XVIII-14 Transaction/Financial Statements Letter Size, Simplex, Production Page Volume

Forecast, North America, 2007-2014.............................................................................................357Exhibit XVIII-15 Digital Production Transaction/Financial Statement Printing Volume: Technology

Adoption Lifecycle, North America, 2010 ....................................................................................358Exhibit XIX-1 Digital Printing Share of Production Pages, North America, 2009 .....................................361Exhibit XIX-2 Letter-size, Simplex Production Pages, North America, 2007-2009 ...................................362Exhibit XIX-3 Print Service Providers: Factors That Will Slow/Prevent Conversion from Analog to Digital

Print, North America, 2010............................................................................................................364Exhibit XIX-4 Print Service Providers: Factors That Will Enable Conversion from Analog to Digital Print,

North America, 2010......................................................................................................................366Exhibit XIX-5 To Tip Analog to Digital Production Print Pages ................................................................367Exhibit XIX-6 Digital Production Pages. North America, 2014..................................................................368Exhibit XIX-7 Analog to Digital: Tipping Point Projection Beyond 2014, North America.......................370