Review: Scenarios and Scenario Planning€¦ · 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 U.S. Census 2011 BEBR (Medium-High Average) Population Projections Extended projection (based

Stewardship of Natural Resources

Our Water Resources

Respect for Agriculture

Our CommunitiesFuture for Our

Children


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Children


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Children

Heartland

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Average Wages in Dollars

Heartland

Florida

Nation$

43

,66

0

$3

1,1

29

$4

8,3

01


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Children

Land Use and Natural Resources:

5.6%

0.4%0.9% 0.6%

5.2%

67.0%

14.9%

0.8%

4.6%

Single Family Multi-Family Commercial

Industrial Institutional Agriculture

Conservation Mixed-Use Mining

Existing Land Uses


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Children

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

U.S. Census 2011 BEBR (Medium-HighAverage) Population

Projections

Extendedprojection (based

on 2011 BEBRMedium-High

Average rates )

Population Counts and Projections

DeSoto

Glades

Hardee

Hendry

Highlands

Okeechobee

Polk


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Children

• Energy:– Regional Baseline

Inventory

– Alternative Energy Economic Strategies

• Affordable Housing– Regional parcel GIS

database

– Affordable Housing Model

• Natural Resource Database

• Transportation Model

• LUCIS Land Use Model

• Population Projections

• Employment Projections

• Scenarios Modeling

• Public Engagement

• 5-Year Strategic Action Plan


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Children


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Children


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Children


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Children


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Children


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Children


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PublicEngagement

Vision & 5-Year Strategic Action

Plan

Focus groups and Community

Workshops

Futures Modeling

Data collection

Futures development and refinement

Assess and compare Futures

Values and Goals

2009-2012 Fall-Winter 2012 Spring-Summer 2013 Winter 2013

HeartlandPartners

Leadership Team

PublicEngagement

Public Engagement


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Economic Diversification

Infrastructure to Support Diversified Economy

Early Learning, K-16, Lifelong Education

Education, Workforce, & Economic

Development

Integrating with Natural Resources Planning

Supporting Economic Development

Ensuring Multimodal Connectivity

Enhancing and Creating Livable Communities

Transportation& Land Use

Health Care

Cultural Identity

Community Resources

Water

Sustainable and Viable Natural Systems

Agriculture

Energy/Climate Change

Environment and Natural Resources


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Children

Tale

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Transportation& Land Use

CommunityResources

Environmentand Natural Resources

Education, Workforce, & Economic

Development


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ChildrenSustainable Growth

What is Our Future?

Traditional Scenario Planning Process:

• Where are we now?

• Where are we going?

• Where do we want to go?

• How do we get there?

ONE preferred Scenario!

Resilient Region Process:

• Where are we now?

• Where could we be going?

• How do we maximize our opportunities and minimize our risks?

• How do we plan for multiple potential futures?

Be prepared for the Future!

Old approach New approach


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• Prepares our workforce for the future

• Provides convenient transportation

• Ensures clean water

• Supports agriculture

• Celebrates our climate, natural resources, & culture


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Future 1:Current

Economy

Future 2: Energy

Economy

Future 3: Trade

Economy

Future 4: Health-based

Economy

Heartland Future

Visioning

Our current

path

Potential different futures: How are

they different? What do we gain? What are

the tradeoffs?

Resilient Region:A tool for decision-makers:

• Where do all futures agree?

• Where do they disagree?

• Maximize potential opportunities?

• Minimize potential risks?


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• Strategic Habitat Conservation Areas

• Biodiversity Hotspots

• Rare Species Habitat Conservation Priorities

• Under-Protected Natural Communities

• Ecological Greenways

• Significant Surface Waters

• Natural Floodplain

• Wetlands

• Aquifer Recharge


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Today 2060

The population in the Heartland is projectedto double in size by 2060.


Our Water Resources



ChildrenSustainable Growth

Implications of Trendson the Heartland

• Heartland’s future looks bright…

– Location in fast-growing state/region

– Lower-cost production site close to global trade lanes

– Increasingly high value natural resources

– Appealing quality of life

• But the region faces competitive challenges

– Availability of skilled labor

– Multimodal transportation connections

– Resource protection


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DeSoto

Wal-Mart Distribution DeSoto Medical Hospital Peace River Citrus Bethel Farms Sorrels Bros Packing

Glades

Moore Haven Correctional

Lykes Bros Brighton Seminole Bingo Glades Electric Co-op A Duda & Sons

Hardee

Florida Institute for Rehabilitation (

Walmart MOSAIC C.F. Industries Peace River Electric

Hendry

US Sugar Corp Southern Gardens A Duda & Sons Hendry Hospital Authority Alico Citrus/Cattle

Highlands

Florida Hospital HeartlandHighlands Regional

Medical CenterCross Country Auto Services Wal-Mart Medical Data Systems

Okeechobee

Columbia Raulerson Hospital

Walpole, Inc. Larson Dairy, Inc. McArthur Farms, Inc. Okeechobee Health (

Polk

Publix Super Markets Wal-MartLakeland Regional Medical

Center (MOSAIC Winter Haven Hospital

Healthcare Sector Natural Resources Sector

Source: Enterprise Florida, 2008. Top Private Employers by County.


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Renewable Energy

Research &Development

Agriculture Logistics

Life Sciences & Healthcare

Tourism & Ecotourism

Alternative Fuels

Energy Production

Agriculture Business & Technology

Manufacturing

Advanced Manufacturing

Economic Opportunities (from the CEDS)

Where we could be going…


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A future that… Resembles the Present.“If we continue with business-as-usual, including healthcare, natural resources, and ecotourism, then we can expect our future to look like…”

• Following current and historical trends in:

o populationo employmento land use

• Continuing economic prominence of agriculture, healthcare, mining, warehousing, ecotourism, and service industries

Today’sEconomy

Future “Current”Economy

Today’s economy is expected to almost double


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DeSoto County Solar Farm


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“If we focus on supplying technologies and goods that create energy and become energy exporters, then we can expect our future to look like…”

A future that is…Focused on Energy.

• Developing an alternative fuels industry based on agriculture

• Manufacturing and installing renewable energy technologies

• Using high-tech energy technologies to become an energy exporter

• Energy efficiency and conservation technologies


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A future that is…Making & Moving Goods.“If we focus on employment hubs for manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing, then we can expect our future to look like…”

• Using current and future industrial areas and logistics and trade networks

• Maintaining high capacity transportation networks for moving goods

• Enhancing distribution of air cargo• Connecting ports• Establishing advanced

manufacturing and warehousing facilities

Energy-FocusedEconomy

Trade-FocusedEconomy

Projected jobs increase by 11% in the Energy-Focused Economy and 10% in the Trade Economy


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Children

The regional transportation network moves freight and people both within and through the Heartland region as part of the statewide transportation system. Future corridors will link regions within the State.

Create and maintain quality places for peopleto live, learn, work and play in the Heartland


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Formation of the 6 County Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization (HRTPO)

• Adopting a Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) Supporting new Energy projects in the Region• Incorporating Freight and Logistics planning in all plans Using the Environmental databases to support conservation easement

acquisitions• Monitoring the Heartland for ever changing circumstances • Adjusting the 2060 Vison to ensure every community is resilient

Staying true to the Values of the Heartland!

www.heartland2060.com

Documents

Review: Scenarios and Scenario Planning€¦ · 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 U.S. Census 2011 BEBR (Medium-High Average) Population Projections Extended projection (based