Review of Science and Technical Progress from

Tsunami Risk Perspective

Preparatory Workshop on Science and Technology for the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction Third

Session

Dr G. A. PapadopoulosResearch Director, Natl. Observatory of Athens, Greece

Representing IOC/UNESCO

Pavia, Italy, 5-6 April 2011

Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) & Risk

Mitigation– Four major Tsunami Early Warning Systems in:

Pacific Ocean since 60’s; and after 2004 in Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, North East Atlantic & Mediterranean Sea– Global co-ordination by ICG’s through

IOC/UNESCO– Education and awareness are also included– In the Pacific: other TEWS’s by Chile, France, Japan, USA etc. – Tsunami risk reduction is up to national authorities– Preparing for responding to tsunami hazard is up to national authorities

Regional TEWS’s: need for drastic improvement

- Four IOC TEWS’s are only for far-field (regional & transoceanic) tsunami waves (propagation time >1 hour).

- Need for better estimation of tsunami arrival time and wave height. - Confusion in terminology used.- Need for standardization of procedures & terminology (IOC TT on Tsunami

Watch Operations).- Only in Pacific full operation, need to reduce false alarms.- In Indian Ocean & Caribbean Sea interim services are provided, operations

expected soon.- In NEAM no interim services are provided, operations expected soon.

Local Systems: need for operation

- Global statistics: more than 80% of victims are caused within the 1st hour of tsunami propagation.

- Early Warning for near-field (local) tsunamis is of critical importance.

Gaps in Tsunami Risk Initiatives

Better Knowledge of Tsunami Potential: need for more research

- Sumatra 2004 megatsunami was unexpected.- Chile 2010 as expected. - Tohoku (Japan) 2011 was expected of smaller size.- What is the potential in other regions of the globe (mainly in lithospheric subduction zones).

Improvements in TEWS’s

- In TEWS’s monitoring & forecasting capabilities should be drastically improved.- More accurate determination of magnitudes for very great earthquakes.- In near-field TEWS’s urgent need for new technologies & alert communication to target groups.- In all systems need to link better warning procedures with awareness, preparedeness &

prevention.- Real-time data sharing for seismic/sea level.- Denser seismic network may reduce drastically the time required to characterize an earthquake

Tsunami Risk Assessment & Management

- Methodologial standardization for risk assessment. - Global Data Base is incomplete and heterogeneous.- Drastic improvement of DEM’s & bathymetry in shallow water.- Tsunami impact scenarios, risk management, recovery procedures & mechanisms.

Tsunami Risk: Gaps & Improvements Needed