Review of Municipal Elections in Post-Independent Belize

A Review of Municipal Elections in Post-independent Belize

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A Review of Municipal ElectionsIn Post-independent Belize

© 2009 by I. Myrtle Palacio

All rights reserved

First draft shared on-line April 2009


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PART 1

INTRODUCTION

Objective and ScopeUnlike other social sciences, such as economics and anthropology, scientific quantification,

qualification and analysis of voter behaviour and political culture, are still left to gut

feelings in Belize (Palacio, 1993). However the study of politics is as important to our daily

existence as the other sciences. Two endeavours at investigating Municipal Elections have

been published to date, namely, “Selecting Our Leaders Past and Present” (Palacio, 1999),

and “Belize City Council Elections: Who is Participating” (SPEAReports 7: Palacio,

1991). The former, was limited to listing all Town Board Councilors elected from 1963 to

1997. Similarly, the latter was restricted to investigating one Belize City Council Election

only. This present study is a first attempt at examining the results of all Municipal Elections

for both Towns and Cities. Its purposes are both exploratory and descriptive. It is

exploratory as it continues to reveal new concepts in Belize’s political ethos, and extends

into trends in political party performance and voter turnout at the polls. The study is

descriptive because the statistics itself when displayed illustrate and narrate the outcomes.

This study offers an evocative review of Municipal Elections, concentrating on the election

held on March 4, 2009, and focusing on several variables, such as leadership, women’s

participation and voter turnout.


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The investigation compares past Municipal Elections, and all data are triangulated to ensure

accuracy and integrity of the information presented. 1954 saw the first General Election

after adult suffrage, and thirty years later in 1984, established the trend for wide shifts in

voter-preference as exercised through the vote. The main thrust is the analysis of data from

all Municipal Elections under the new Belize City and Town Councils Acts. Commencing

with the Belize City Municipal Election of 1999, the Acts empowered the Elector to vote

for Mayors in the Municipal Elections. Other elections are highlighted for emphasis, but

concentration is on Municipal Elections, with particular attention to the Municipal Elections

held on March 4, 2009. The study acknowledges the increase in the number of “Third”

political parties competing in Belize’s elections. It also recognizes the two major political

parties, namely the Peoples United Party (PUP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP), as

the two Parties that have consistently contested the elections in post-independent Belize.

Variables such as voter participation and political party popularity in General Elections are

not compared with that of Municipal Elections for the basic reason that the source, the

databases, or the universe are not the same in most cases. However, several references are

made to General Elections in determining its effect on the outcome of Municipal Elections

and vice versa. For purposes of this study, national averages for Municipal Elections are

not recognized before 2003, as these were administered as separate elections and held at

differing times. Prior to 2003, a national average will be in reference to Town Board

Elections only.

Raw data are collected, then collated, calculated and analyzed to produce readily readable

information. If the data provided are not accurate, the information produced will not be

valid or reliable. Limitations in the availability and quality of data sources for election

results have been encountered over the years (Palacio, 1991, 1993, 1999). In such


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instances, efforts in obtaining multiple data sources are employed, and the data triangulated

to ensure accuracy of information. The data downloaded for the 2009 Municipal Elections

from the official website www.elections.gov.bz between March 5 and March 25, 2009, were

no different, and some of the most blatant were the following (Appendix i):

Late official postings of election results

Updating modifications without notification for clarity

Inaccurate calculations of voter turnout

Wherever inaccuracies are discovered, the differences have always been elucidated, but

only the official results are utilized (Palacio, 1991, 1993, 1999). The approach in this study

is similar.

The information in this research, contributes to Urban Studies as the findings can be used to

influence urban policy, community development and citizen participation. It also

contributes to the field of Urban Anthropology in the areas of social planning and

ethnicization of politics. Two new perspectives in Belize’s political culture have emerged,

that of ethnic voting or voting as an ethnic block, coined as “ethnicization of politics”; the

use of inaccurate and/or incomplete data on election outcomes to spin viewpoints; and the

non-participation of electors by not voting. All these warrant further research with regards

to its effect on Belize’s political development.

Research MethodologyA mix of methods and techniques were utilized to acquire superior quality data, resulting in

valid and reliable information. In the secondary research method, the library review

technique was utilized by:

perusing newspapers carrying election results for periods quoted

gleaning election results statistics from the Belize Gazettes for periods quoted


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conducting literature review as listed in the bibliography

searching the world wide web on-line news reporting of the 2009 election results

All the election statistics were quantified to determine voter turnout, political party

popularity, candidate popularity and trends in voter behaviour.

Utilizing primary research methodology, qualitative research strategies were employed to

attain a better advantage in interpreting meanings in people’s stories, such as but not limited

to, Talk Shows, political advertisements, presentation and content of news items. Data

collection techniques utilized included, participant observation as a voter on election day;

in-depth inquiries of electors and politicians via face-to-face and telephone dialogues, as

well as environmental scans surrounding the Polling Stations in Belize City on Election

Day. News items were coded and analyzed using techniques of content and narrative

analyses. As an Elector with experience in election data analysis in Belize, I am the situated

knower or the outsider within, and I utilized this opportunity as a participant observer to

draw better insight into the value climate. This is a technique of feminist standpoint theory

and indigenous anthropology (Hill, 1990; Bernard H. Russell, 1994).

DefinitionsThe following definitions of terms or concepts used in the paper are offered below for

purposes of clarity.

Spoilt Ballot--Rejected Ballot—Ballots CastThe Representation of the People Act (ROPA) chapter 9 of the laws of Belize provides the

regulations for voter registration and conduct of elections. The Third Section, under

Election Rules, is quoted for the definitions offered on spoilt and rejected ballots, as

follows.


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A spoilt ballot is a cancelled ballot. The cancellation is done in the Polling Station by the

Presiding Officer on the request of an Elector. A “spoilt ballot” is not placed or “cast” into

the ballot box, and is therefore not a “cast ballot” or vote (Rule 26). A rejected ballot is a

“cast ballot” or vote that has been deemed void by the Returning Officer in the Counting

Station. A rejected ballot is not part of the votes counted for a candidate (Rule 31). The

ROPA offers 5 reasons to reject a cast ballot as follows (Rule 31 (1)):

“Any ballot paper--

which does not have the Presiding Officer’s initials on the back of it; or in which the elector has voted for more than one candidate; or which is not marked for any candidate; or which contains any writing or by which the elector could be identified; or which is unmarked or void for uncertainty;”

In Municipal Elections, the number of “ballots cast” represents the number of Electors who

voted. Each Elector who participates has the choice of voting for 0 to 11 persons in Belize

City, or 0 to 7 persons in Belmopan City or each of the other seven municipalities. Voter

turnout then is the result of the total number of “ballots cast” divided by the total number of

registered Electors. One “ballot cast” represents one Voter, but as expressed above, one

“cast ballot” may have several votes. A Presiding Officer has the responsibility to manage a

Polling Station on Election Day and a Returning Officer manages the election for the entire

municipality if it is a Municipal Election, or electoral division if a Parliamentary Election.

Good governanceThe expressions “Good Governance” and “Corruption” were touted by the Media,

Politicians and others throughout the 2008 election campaign, and it is a topic of interest in

this study. For purposes of this research corruption is the abuse of entrusted power for

personal gain or for the benefit of a group to which one owes allegiance. To govern simply


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means to manage, control, or steer the affairs of People. Governance is the exercise of

power or authority to manage a country’s resources and affairs. Good governance

comprises the mechanisms, processes and institutions, through which people and groups

articulate their interests, exercise their legal rights, meet their obligations and mediate their

differences. For a government it is the “traditions and institutions by which authority in a

country is exercised” including, “the process by which governments are selected, monitored

and replaced (AusAID1, 2005). Taken from the definition offered by the Government of

Belize through the Office of Governance (OoG), Governance is defined as “the competent

management of resources and business in a manner that is transparent, accountable and

responsive” (OoG Annual Report 2007).

Good governance minimizes corruption and can only be accomplished through the practice

of several principles, characteristics or qualities, with examples below as presented in the

literature:

Accountability Transparency/Openness Decency InclusivenessResponsiveness Participation Fairness Rule of LawAccuracy Integrity Effectiveness & Efficiency

All organizations working for the common GOOD of the Public are responsible to practice

good governance principles as listed above, and these organizations are divided into three

main categories as follows:

• Public Sector, such as Government and Quasi-government organizations

• Social Sector, namely NGOs, Media, Unions, Churches, Lodges

• Private Sector Organizations, such as those with public ownership through shares.

One example in Belize is the Credit Unions.

1 AusAID Projects, “Good Governance: Guiding Principles for Implementation” (www.ausaid.gov.au)


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Organizations that Impact Electioneering

The definition of good governance offered by AusAID2 in 2005 abovementioned speaks to

traditions and institutions by which authority is exercised in a country and includes the

institutions that hold responsibilities for the mechanisms and processes, by which

governments are selected, monitored and replaced. Three institutions stand out as having

immense significance to the mechanisms and processes for selection, monitoring and

replacement of governments. Therefore these are organizations that should be cognizant of

practicing good governance principles as identified above. Firstly, an Election Management

Body (EMB) is to ensure that voter registration is conducted as mandated by the ROPA; and

that an accurate, reliable electoral database is maintained. The EMB is also mandated to

ensure that free and fair elections are efficiently organized and conducted, with accurate

results reported in a timely and transparent manner. In Belize, the EMB with such a

mandate is the Elections and Boundaries Department (Department) which is a government

agency that was created in 1989 immediately following amendments to Sec 88 of the

Constitution of Belize in 1988. The irony is that at that time there existed an independent

body called the Elections and Boundaries Commission (Commission), and by so doing

established a second EMB whose staff persons are appointed by the Public Services

Commission. As a creature of Section 88 of the Belize Constitution, the 1988 amendments

derogated the Commission’s role and capacity with regards to electoral administration as set

out in Sec 88 (13). The Commission’s role in electoral administration as determined by

Section 88 (14) is subject to the ROPA and states,

“In the exercise of its functions, the Commission shall not besubject to the direction or control of any other person orauthority and shall, subject to the provisions of this

2 AusAID is acronym for Australian Agency for International Development. It is the Government agencyresponsible for managing Australia’s overseas aid programmes (www.ausaid.gov.au)


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Constitution, act in accordance with the Representation ofthe People Act or any other law, rule or regulation relatingto elections.”

The expression “shall” in Section 88 (14) as underlined for emphasis in the quotation above

speaks volumes. With subsequent amendments to the Administrative Provisions and other

sections of the ROPA, responsibility for electoral administration was devolved to some

extent on the Chief Elections Officer and by extension on the Public Services Commission.

With one stroke of the pen in 1988, Belize changed from an Independent Model of election

management to a Government Model (Palacio, 2005). To reiterate, for purposes of this

study supported by the explanations above, the EMB in Belize is the Department (see

Section One).

The second institution that holds responsibilities for the mechanisms and processes, by which

governments are selected, monitored and replaced is the political party (Party). Traditionally in

Belize, the political party as an organization is responsible for selecting or electing persons

as standard bearers or candidates to represent the Party on the election ballot. Whether or

how the Party performs due diligence in its selection processes for values such as integrity,

and the necessary skills to carry out the responsibilities of the Office Sought, is purely party

political business. Most Electors are not members of political parties, and the trend is that

only small3 groups of approximately 10% to 12% for each major political party are party

devotees who invariably select or elect candidates for the ballot (Palacio, 1993). Therefore,

the choice of candidate for the ballot is dictated by a small group through a political party

convention; and the majority of Electors are left to conclude the vote based on the Parties’

choices. Candidates are elected as leaders to determine the progress of the municipality

and/or country. This task by political parties of finding candidates for the ballot is very

3 This trend may be changing as larger numbers are turning out to vote for both major political parties in a fewof the recent conventions.


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crucial to democracy. However, to date, there is no legal framework to regulate the political

parties that are charged with such a strategic role. While the two major Parties have been in

the business of politics for all the elections in post-independent Belize, there has been an

increase of new entrants namely, “Third Party” participation in the political arena to

challenge elections only.

Thirdly are the Media who are institutions now considered to be an indispensable element in

a democracy, and have been described as the “fourth estate” or fourth power of the state.

As such, the Media are expected to carry out the crucial role of facilitating public inquiry,

by offering voice to a diversity of views and opinions. The Media are expected to provide

valid, accurate, and reliable information to the public, so people may understand issues and

critically assess government’s actions or inactions. In so doing the Media also promote

public debate on issues of public concern. Therefore, the Media are valuable and effective

agents of change that work for the common good, and must set and maintain the highest

standards of transparency and integrity of information.


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PART 2

FINDINGS

Trends in Voter Participation

Separate Elections—Town & City

Until 2000 all Elections in Belize were conducted at separate time periods. All Municipal

and General Elections were treated as separate and distinct from each other in terms of the

election dates. For example in the ‘80’s Belize City Council Election was held in

September 1983, the General Elections in December 1984, followed by the Town Board

Elections in March 1985. Similarly, in the ‘90’s, General Election was held in June 1993,

Town Board Elections were held in March 1994, and the Belize City Council Elections in

March 1996 (Table 1). The first two Municipal Elections in one day were held in March

2000 under the new Belmopan City Council and Town Councils Acts, following the March

1999 Belize City Council Election. It was the first City Council Election for Belmopan

after the Referendum of November 1999 which asked the question: “Should we in

Belmopan have our own elected City Council?” The new Village, City and Town Councils

Acts reformed the local government system by providing for the election of Mayors and

Village Chairmen, setting a specific time for elections, and the devolution of powers to the

Councils. In Belize City, Electors voted for a Mayor for the first time in 1999, and


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Belmopan Voters along with Voters of all seven Towns also voted for a Mayor for the first

time in 2000. Similarly a national Village Council Election was held in April 2001,

whereby residents under the new act voted directly and by way of ballots for Chairpersons.

Table 1: Date of Election by Outcome

Date of Election Outcome Type of ElectionParty Seat

UDP PUP%VoterTurnout

December 17, 1980 0 9 65.30 Belize City CouncilDecember 16, 1981 26 16 76.03 Town BoardSeptember 14, 1983 9 0 57.46 Belize City CouncilDecember 14, 1984 21 7 74.90 GeneralMarch 27, 1985 4 0 44.30 Belize City CouncilMarch 27, 1985 35 14 69.37 Town BoardDecember 10, 1986 9 0 49.40 Belize CityMarch 16, 1988 19 30 71.53 Town BoardSeptember 4, 1989 13 15 72.60 GeneralDecember 6, 1989 0 9 47.55 Belize CityMarch 25, 1991 14 35 68.33 Town BoardMarch 18, 1993 0 9 44.27 Belize City CouncilJune 30, 1993 16 13 71.60 GeneralMarch 8, 1994 43 6 69.24 Town BoardMarch 18, 1996 0 9 44.21 Belize City CouncilMarch 11, 1997 3 46 67.14 Town BoardAugust 1998 3 26 90.14 GeneralMarch 3, 1999 0 11 57.35 Belize City CouncilMarch 1, 2000 2 47 72.35 Town CouncilMarch 1, 2000 0 7 69.51 Belmopan City CouncilMarch 5, 2003 21 28 77.73 Town Council

“ “ “ 0 7 70.69 Belmopan City Council“ “ “ 0 11 71.85 Belize City Council“ “ “ 7 22 79.51 General

October 29, 2003 1 0 72.63 Cayo South By-electionMarch 1, 2006 46 3 67.81 Town Council

“ “ “ 7 0 70.45 Belmopan City Council


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In 2003, all Municipalities were scheduled to hold elections on the first Wednesday in

March, as required under the new City Councils and Town Councils Acts. This meant that

two elections were to be held as in 2000, with the inclusion of the largest municipality,

Belize City for the first time. General Election was also slated to be held sometime in 2003;

and the Government took the bold decision to hold the General Election on the same day as

the scheduled two Municipal Elections. Therefore three elections were held on the same

day in 2003. According to the Election Report (www.belize-elections.org), voter turnout

was high, spoilt ballots and rejected ballots cast were within normal occurrences, and there

were no appeals for reviews and/or recounts (Palacio, 2003).

Local Election & Outcome of General?

The first Town Board Elections after Belize’s independence were held some three months

later, on Dec 16, 1981. Although the UDP garnered the majority (26) of the 42 seats, three

Town Boards, namely, Corozal and Orange Walk were split politically, four seats to three in

favour of the PUP; and the UDP garnered Dangriga. The UDP won all seven seats in

Benque Viejo and San Ignacio, and the PUP won Punta Gorda (see Section Three). Up

until after 1991, politically mixed Town Boards were the norm whereby each Town

demonstrated its Electors’ choices (Palacio, 1999). In 2003, there were no politically split

“ “ “ 11 0 61.50 Belize City CouncilFebruary 7, 2008 25 6 77.18 GeneralMarch 4, 2009 * 46 3 60.33 Town Council

“ “ “ 0 7 51.46 Belmopan City Council“ “ “ * 11 0 42.10 Belize City Council


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Town Councils, but four Towns voted entirely in support of the PUP and three Towns

totally for the UDP. The new trend in a combined Municipal Election is that the winning

party takes the majority of the seats, particularly as the campaign is more about national

issues, than of the concerns at the local level.

Table 1 demonstrates the date of elections by outcome and type of election from 1981

(independence) to present (post-independence). The Table shows that the UDP won the

General Election, Town Board and City Council Elections after Belize attained its

independence. For nearly a decade, beginning with the Town Board Elections of 1981, until

1989, the UDP dominated elected leadership in the House of Representatives, Town Board

and City Council. There are several reasons for such including the realities of change in a

recently independent Belize, for both leaders and citizenry. Also while the UDP won the

1985 by-election and full City Council Election in 1986, voter turnout was the lowest since

1956, and at 44.3% and 49.4% respectively represented less than 50% of the Electorate.

This started the trend of minority voter turnout to Belize City Council Elections until the

election of 1999, a total of 5 consecutive elections in nearly fourteen years.

The PUP won the General Election of September 4, 1989, to form the second government

after the attainment of independence. With a narrow margin of fifteen seats to thirteen seats

for the opposition UDP in the House of Representatives, and a party popularity at the polls

of exactly 50%; the PUP went on to win the 1989 Belize City Council Election some three

months later by a landslide. The landslide trend for the PUP continued with the 1991 Town

Board Elections and the second City Council Election in March 1993. However the PUP

lost the General Election held on June 30, 1993, some three months after the landslide win

(Table 1). Therefore the theory that the political party that wins the Municipal Election

wins the General Election, and vice versa does not hold true. It is invariably during those


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periods when the election is called immediately following a General Election; for example,

March 1984 for UDP and Sept 1989 for the PUP (Table 1). The effect of one over the other

has more to do with pressing concerns of the period. One such example is, the PUP losing a

General Election in 1993 some three months after a landslide victory in the Belize City

Council Election. There were suspicions regarding the introduction of an early

parliamentary election call into the political culture, and also the rumors of immigrant

registration starting out of the Dangriga voter registration office, did not auger well for the

PUP in the 1993 General Elections (Palacio, 1993; The People’s Pulse, July11, 1993; pg. 4).

The 1998 to 2008 decade of domination by the PUP was not a new occurrence for a political

party, as the UDP dominated from 1981 to 1989 (Table 1). The phenomenon was the back-

to-back successes of the PUP at the polls for the 1998 and 2003 General Elections. In so

doing, the PUP formed two consecutive governments, a first in post-independent Belize.

The continuous display of change in Electors’ choices for leaders to the House of

Representatives reveals that party loyalty for both major political parties is small and that

large percentages (66%) of Voters are “fence-sitters” (Palacio, 1993). These Electors are

invariably anti-establishment and they decide the outcome of the vote.

Table 2Average % Voter Participation 1981 - 2009

Year Belize City Towns Belmopan1980 65.30 -- --1981 -- 76.03 --1983 57.46 -- --1985 44.30** 69.37 --1986 49.40 -- --1988 -- 71.53 --1989 47.55 -- --1991 -- 68.33 --1993 44.27 -- --1994 -- 69.24 --


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1996 44.21 -- --1997 -- 67.14 --1999 57.35 -- --2000 -- 72.35 69.512003 71.85 77.73 70.692006 61.50 67.81 70.452009 * 42.10 60.33 51.46** By-elections for Belize City Council

* NB: Slight inaccuracies at data source www.elections.gov.bz for 2009 due to use of wrong divisorand miscalculations

It was not until 2003 that the results of Municipal Elections can be grouped as such, to

determine a national average of voter participation for Municipalities. Prior to 2003, Towns

were grouped as Town Boards, with a separate City Council Election; Belize City being the

only City until Belmopan in 2000. The grouping of Municipalities as one election does

have tremendous advantages for election management, primarily from an economic or

financial viewpoint. However, by so grouping them into one election, the stakes are higher

for the politicians as the recent trends have demonstrated that the winner-takes-all as the

outcome. The winner-takes-all is compounded when a General Election is called near to the

time of the Municipal Elections. This is no longer a novelty, as conducting multiple

elections in one day was accomplished by the PUP administration in March 2003, and so

the risk of innovation no longer exists. The advantage of the winner-takes-all is more on the

part of the politician, as while the politician has absolute power, the Electors’ only recourse

to an inept political administration may be to wait or “put up” until another election call.

How and What is Low Voter Participation?During 1985 to 1996, four full Belize City Council Elections and one By-election (March

1985), continuously demonstrated voter turnout far below what was the norm; and below

50% of registered voters (Table 1). In 1985 voter turnout was described as low relative to


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the trend prior, and also exemplified an election where the Council was voted in by a

minority group of Electors. The latter, that of a minority elected Council was the first such

occurrence since the early period of 1956, and became the new standard and election

culture, until a paradigm shift in 1999, for the Belize City Council Elections.

For ease of reference in this section, Table 2 displays the averages in voter participation for

Municipal Elections only. 1999 saw the first Belize City Council Election for Mayor,

whereby the office of Mayor was elected separately. The voter turnout increased

tremendously by approximately 13% to 57.35%, and started the new benchmark for voter

turnout of 50% and more of registered electors. The Table reveals that this pattern

continued, with voter participation increasing over the next two elections under the new

Belize City Council Act, in 2003 (71.85%) and in 2006 (61.5%). The new archetype was

short-lived, as the 2009 Municipal Elections displayed the lowest voter turnout ever

(42.1%), and regressing approximately 13 years to a minority elected Belize City Council as

occurred in 1985 to 1996 (Appendix i). No political opinion surveys or polls were

conducted for the 2009 Municipal Elections to scientifically determine the reasons for a low

voter turnout. The responses to similar queries in a survey conducted in 1993 are being

offered as an example of Voters’ attitude. Although this transpired some 16 years ago, the

current concerns are similar though not in parallel numbers, and the reasons offered at 1993

are as follows (Palacio, 1993: 60):

30.6% --discouraged or not satisfied with the political system

28.6%--no confidence in politicians or don’t care for politicians

18.5%--confused between parties

16.3%--political parties not for poor people

5.9%--did not offer an opinion


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Table 3 exhibits percent of voter turnout by town and year of election and is limited to

Town Board Elections for this section only. It reveals that unlike the Belize City Council,

Councilors for all Town Boards, have to date been elected by a majority of the Voters.

Also, it is evident that election participation of Voters has traditionally been well above

50% for each Town Board ranging from 56% to 88% (Table 3). Data for Punta Gorda was

not available for 1997 at the time of completing this study, so that Punta Gorda was not

factored into the national Town Board average. Invariably, the lowest and highest voter

turnouts have unfailingly been Dangriga and San Pedro Ambergris Caye, respectively. The

other Town Boards have been constant in percentage of voter turnouts, through the election

years. For example, Orange Walk Town shows a voter turnout in the high 60% to low 70%;

and likewise are Corozal, Benque and Punta Gorda. The national average for Town Boards

varied, between 69.37% in 1985, 69.24% in 1994 and 67.14% in 1997. While these

averages demonstrate a small decline, these are well above 50%, unlike the election

outcomes for Belize City.

The era whereby Electors voted directly for Mayors in Town Council Elections, is

demonstrated in Table 4. The Table displays voter turnout during the period 2000 to 2009,

and includes the City of Belmopan and Belize City (1999). Table 4 clearly establishes that

Town Councils continued to experience voter turnouts that exceeded 50% for all four

elections, from 2000 to 2009. Also the Table exhibits that Dangriga invariably still had the

lowest voter turnout. While San Pedro Ambergris Caye is still high, Benque Viejo has

taken the lead to be among the highest in voter turnout. The City of Belmopan shows high

voter turnout relative to Corozal, Benque Viejo and San Pedro Ambergris Caye, as

explained above. This is from the first election in 2000 to the election of 2006, totaling 3

elections for Belmopan. In 2000, the national average for Town Councils shows a slight

increase to 72.35% over 67.14% in 1997 (Table 3). The inclusion of the City of Belmopan


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in the national average for 2000 does not greatly affect the voter turnout of approximately

72% (Table 4).

Table 3MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 1981 – 1997

Town Board % Voter Turnout by Municipality and Election YearMunicipality 1981 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997

Corozal 76.90 72.80 73.90 72.91 67.37 64.90Orange Walk 78.80 71.1 71.30 69.68 72.65 68.46San Pedro Ambergris -- 84.50 88.30 81.71 80.28 79.47Benque Viejo del Carmen 74.30 65.40 72.40 68.51 70.64 72.24San Ignacio/Santa Elena 76.30 66.0 63.60 65.95 66.31 61.97Dangriga 73.20 55.60 59.0 52.81 58.54 55.82Punta Gorda 76.70 70.20 72.20 66.74 68.88 --Town Board Average 76.03 69.37 71.53 68.33 69.24 67.14Source: Belize Today, April 1991; Belize Gazette, April 10, 1988; March 12, 1994, January 16, 1982

Supplement to New Belize, April 1985

As demonstrated in Table 4, a national average for Municipal Elections can only be

calculated from the election of 2003 to 2009. The national average of 76.3% in 2003

declined by approximately 10% to 67.41% in 2006, and yet another decline of exactly

10.09% in 2009. This represents a decidedly steady decline nationally, due directly to a

steady decline in each municipality of approximately 7% to 10% for each of these elections;

with the exception of the City of Belmopan. Tables 3 and 4 reveal that the national

averages for Municipal Election years 2000 to 2006 are above 50%, and to a large extent,

range from approximately 18% to 27% more. Similarly, the national average for Town

Boards ranges from 11% to 21% more than 50%. Therefore the data established a trend of

high voter turnout for Towns and the City of Belmopan. Similarly, between the 1999 and

2006 elections, Belize City Council established a trend that far exceeded 50% in voter

participation, but dropped below 50% in 2009. Table 4 also clearly demonstrates a

countrywide decline in voter participation in Belize at 2009—every town, every city.


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Table 4MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 1996 – 2009

% Voter Turnout by Municipality and Election YearMunicipality 1996/97 1999 2000 2003 2006 *2009

Belize City 44.21 57.35 71.85 61.50 42.10Belmopan -- -- 69.51 70.69 70.45 51.46Corozal 64.90 -- 69.15 81.09 71.20 63.57Orange Walk 68.46 -- 75.20 80.90 73.90 66.86San Pedro Ambergris 79.47 -- 75.58 80.02 71.00 61.34Benque Viejo 72.24 -- 80.09 84.14 75.40 66.41San Ignacio/Santa Elena 61.97 -- 71.33 78.90 61.80 54.29Dangriga 55.82 -- 64.46 68.23 59.10 51.23Punta Gorda ** -- -- 70.65 70.85 62.30 58.59Town Board/CouncilAverage

67.14 -- 72.35 77.73 67.81 60.33

National Average -- -- -- 76.30 67.41 57.32Source: 2003- 2009— www.belize-elections.org & www.elections.gov.bz

*2009 slightly overstated on www.elections.gov.bz** No data available for Punta Gorda—error in Gazette

Comparison of 2006 and 2009

Voter Turnout

Voter turnout for the Municipal Elections of 2006 and 2009 are compared by election year

in Table 5. The Table shows a wide range of variances for each municipality from 3.71%

for Punta Gorda to 19.4% for Belize City. Interestingly, the two cities, namely Belize City

which is the largest metropolis, and the City of Belmopan which is the locale for

government administration, both exhibited the widest variances in decline in voter

participation, and in the very high two digit figures. Benque Viejo del Carmen, Corozal and

San Pedro Ambergris Caye being Municipalities with a trend of consistently high voter

turnout, a decline in 2009 of a near two-digit figure was highly unusual.


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Table 5MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 2006 & 2009

Comparison of % Voter Turnout by Election Year

Municipality 2006 2009 VarianceBelize City 61.50 42.10 19.40Belmopan 70.45 51.46 18.99Corozal 71.20 63.57 7.63Orange Walk 73.90 66.86 7.04San Pedro Ambergris 71.00 61.34 9.66Benque 75.40 66.41 8.99San Ignacio/Santa Elena 61.80 54.29 7.51Dangriga 59.10 51.23 7.87Punta Gorda 62.30 58.59 3.71National Average 67.41 57.32 --

Source 2006 & 2009—website www.elections.gov.bz on March 25, 20092009 slightly overstated due to wrong calculations & divisor used

The last minority elected Belize City Council was in 1996 (13 years) with a voter turnout of

44.21% (Table 2). In 2009 Belize City Council is again a minority elected Council at

42.1% voter turnout, which represents the lowest ever for any municipality (Appendix i).

The Election on March 4, 2009 can go down in the annals of political history as having the

lowest voter turnout ever—lowest national average, lowest average for Towns and the City

of Belmopan ever. The Electors voted with their feet by staying away from the polls. This

is unprecedented and may be of major interest to political leaders, social planners and

students of political science.

All in all the data clearly express a countrywide “sit-out” on Election Day 2009 by the

Electors of Belize’s Municipalities. What could be the reasons for such action or inaction?

The reasons offered above from a previous research and publication, pointed generally to


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apathy. Along with apathy was the possible disenchantment with leadership at the local

and/or the national levels. The data speak to this in another section of this research. This

deep decline of voter participation at the polls may not set a trend, but that communities will

rebound as is the political culture. However, what is certain is that the “sit-out” expresses a

deafening statement and cry-out by Electors to their political Leaders, and may become a

trend if not heeded.

Women’s ParticipationWomen have always dominated the political arena, but generally only as support staff, such

as campaigners and purveyors of food. Women are yet to demand their places as candidates

for the Municipal Elections and in particular the Parliamentary Elections. Also both major

political parties are controlled4 at the party leadership level by the male of the species. The

1997 Town Board Elections saw the largest number of women as candidates, a total of 8 out

of approximately 90 candidates (Palacio, 1999). Who is voting by sex and other variables

was determined in another research for Belize City (SPEAReport 6, 1991). This publication

established that a higher percentage of women participate as voters than men. It also

revealed the challenges in accessing data from politicians and their agents. For purposes of

a quick analysis, similar methods were employed utilizing one electoral division in Belize

City. The electoral division is Fort George, selected for its mix in socio-economic status, its

diverse ethnicity, as well as for timely access to data requested in terms of prompt and

efficient responses to requests made (SPEAReports 6: Palacio, 1990). The Voters’ List

used in the Polling Stations on polling day by the Fort George electoral division of the PUP

was the sample data for this study. While the result was similar in terms of sex as the study

4 PUP National Executive (NE) endorsed at the 2010 National Convention comprises of 5 women out of 31members—“The Blue Tsunami”; www.belizetimes.bz, Oct. 22, 2010. Data on UDP NE not available.


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quoted above, it cannot be generalized for Belize due to the limited universe. However, the

outcome from this small sample is utilized in this study as an illustration of its potential and

what is achievable for further investigation in this area in the future. The findings are that

although Fort George electoral division has slightly more men (51%) than women (49%)

registered as Electors at January 2009 (www.elections.gov.bz), more women (54%) voted

than men (46%) in the Belize City Council Election of 2009. Along with sex, the age

cohort 31 to 50 years consistently turned out to vote for all three polling areas of this

electoral division.

The two women candidates who won their mayoral seats in San Pedro Ambergris Caye and

Belize City did so against male counterparts; and Zenaida Moya won the candidacy against

a challenge from a male contender. Both Zenaida Moya of Belize City and Elsa Paz of San

Pedro Ambergris Caye were the first women elected as Mayors by the Voters, with Paz

being the first elected woman Mayor in 2003. Moya was first elected into office in 2006.

Does this mean that women are voting for women as leaders? In the case of San Pedro

Ambergris Caye, scientific observation reveals that a large percentage of Voters including

those who voted in 2009 are new Belizeans and/or newcomers to the Island Town, with a

new thinking, and an independent perspective. This attitude can be reinforced by the fact

that a top vote getter for the winning party UDP is also a relatively new resident. This

speaks volumes for the socio-political and socio-cultural development of San Pedro

Ambergris Caye. In the case of Belize City, Moya received the least votes for the UDP and

was elected by a minority group of electors, at less than 50% voter turnout, and the lowest

ever recorded in the history of free elections in Belize.

Three female candidates from two communities topped the polls in the 2009 Municipal

Elections. These were Elsa Paz in San Pedro Ambergris Caye, albeit by only 11 votes; Enid


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Morales and Rozel Flores-Arana, both of Orange Walk Town representing the UDP and

PUP respectively. Along with San Pedro, Orange Walk Town is another municipality that

has from time to time demonstrated some independence in Voters’ choices and high level of

participation. Although with a small margin of five votes, Elsa Paz also topped the polls in

2006; and 2009 is her third success at garnering the Mayor’s seat. It shows that although

the number of women candidates invariably has not improved over time, those women who

made it on the ballot in 2009, were identified by Voters as possible choices for leadership

via the vote.

The Essential Popularity

Political Party

Political Party popularity is determined by the total number or percentage of votes obtained

by each political party at an election. In a Municipal Election each ballot cast can have

from 0 to 11 votes in the case of Belize City, or from 0 to 7 votes for all other

Municipalities including the City of Belmopan. Therefore each ballot cast may have

multiple votes. Table 6 demonstrates municipality by party popularity for five elections

from 1996 for Belize City to 2009 for all municipalities, bearing in mind that the first

election for a Council for the City of Belmopan was in 2000. A steady decline is

demonstrated in Table 6 for the PUP in all five elections, particularly between 2000 and

2009. There is no vacuum in political party popularity, so that a decline for the PUP is an

increase for the UDP; just the opposite effect during the same periods. In Belize City, the

popularity of the PUP declined from 60% in 1999, to 38.5% and 39.6% in 2006 and 2009

respectively.


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Table 6MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS (1997) 2000 – 2009

Political Party Popularity by % of Votes and Election YearMunicipality 1996/97 1999 2000 2003 2006 2009

Belize City * PUP55.79UDP 37.1NABR 3.7PDP 3.4

PUP60.0UDP40.0

--PUP54.8UDP44.2IND 1.0

PUP 38.5UDP61.3NABR.2

PUP39.56UDP60.44

Belmopan -- ----

PUP53.3UDP44.1IND 12.6

PUP 34.0UDP46.5VIP 19.5

PUP22.12UDP55.67VIP22.22

Corozal PUP56.58UDP43.42

-- PUP55.9UDP44.1

PUP51.99UDP48.01

PUP45.71UDP49.86WTP4.43

PUP42.77UDP56.83IND 0.39

Orange Walk PUP60.73UDP39.27

-- PUP60.0UDP40.0

PUP57.45UDP42.55

PUP 45.9UDP54.1

PUP49.90UDP50.10

San Pedro Ambergris PUP52.38UDP47.63

-- PUP54.7UDP45.3

PUP47.78UDP52.22

PUP 40.9UDP58.59IND0.51

PUP34.64UDP65.36

Benque Viejo PUP55.53UDP44.47

-- PUP49.1UDP50.9

PUP45.4UDP54.6

PUP48.16UDP51.84

PUP23.63UDP74.11BA2.27


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San Ignacio/SantaElena

PUP49.98UDP49.51NABR .51

-- PUP50.5UDP49.5

PUP47.51UDP52.49

PUP35.51UDP63.77IND0.72

PUP26.89UDP68.97IND4.14

Dangriga PUP55.23UDP44.46NABR .31

-- PUP56.9UDP43.1

PUP55.14UDP46.86

PUP37.92UDP61.75

PUP40.01UDP58.81IND 1.18

Punta Gorda PUP57.51UDP41.82NABR .67

-- PUP56.5UDP45.5

PUP54.95UDP44.05

PUP46.35UDP50.11IND3.54

PUP37.8UDP51.76PNP7.82IND2.62

Source: 1996 to 2000—Belize Gazette, 2003—www.belize-elections.org, 2006 &2009—www.elections.gov.bz

Note: 1999 Belize City’s 1st Mayoral election March 3rd 1999* 1996 only is Belize City Council

The popularity of the UDP shot up from 40% to 62.3%, and 60.4% for the same election

period (Table 6). The popularity gap widened drastically in 2006 and continued to 2009

with the UDP gaining over the PUP in all Municipalities. The greatest gains for the UDP

and losses for the PUP were in the municipalities of San Pedro Ambergris Caye, and the

entire west of the country—the capital Belmopan, San Ignacio/Santa Elena and Benque

Viejo del Carmen. In the City of Belmopan the third party, Vision Inspired for the People

(VIP), garnered 23 or 0.10% more votes than the PUP. This represents about 3 to 5

electors, and although it is a meager victory for the VIP, yet in politics a victory IS. Along

with the poor showing in the western towns for the PUP, the election outcome from the new

capital City of Belmopan did not help.


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In Belize City and Orange Walk Town, the PUP gained 1% and 4% respectively more votes

than in 2006, but these numbers are greatly less than the popularity obtained by the PUP in

2003, for both municipalities. Orange Walk must be highlighted as the Town that obtained

the only 3 out of 49 seats garnered by the PUP in 2009; leaving Orange Walk with the only

mixed Town Council of 3 seats to 4 in favour of the UDP. What caused such a massive

decline in popularity for the PUP particularly in the west of the country and in Belize City,

the largest metropolis, is worth researching. Other factors offered by this research, is that

the west is similar to San Pedro as one of the fastest growing population with a high

percentage of new Belizeans on the electoral roll. These new Electors bring in a new

experience to the political environment. Similarly, an environmental scan of Belize City

shows that new Belizeans have also steadily made in-roads into the Belize City, carving

niches on the out-skirts5 of this Old Capital.

In statistically assessing the political parties’ popularity, one must also make reference to

the voter turnout and its possible effect on the popularity of one party over the other. The

2009 Municipal Election is unprecedented as having the lowest voter turnout, in the last two

decades of electioneering in Belize. The Councilors for Belize City, the largest metropolis

and the political and economic hub of the country were elected by a minority (42.1%) or

less than one-half of the electorate; after reversing this trend for the last three elections

1999, 2003 and 2006 (Appendix i). Voter turnout is the Voter’s direct participation at the

polls, and in turn reflects Voter behaviour and Voter attitude. Among other things, a

position of disenchantment was the stance clearly communicated by the electorate in 2009.

5 Some of the areas are Belama Phase 4, Jane Usher Blvd and its environs, and recently the “south side” ofChetumal St.


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The Leaders or Mayoral Candidates

The drastic changes in party popularity and unprecedented low voter turnout countrywide,

require cross-referencing with the appeal of the Parties’ leadership to the electorate at the

national and local levels. It is important therefore, to discuss the performance of candidates

particularly those selected/elected to lead, namely those elected to candidacy for the Office

of Mayor. Table 7 demonstrates elected Mayors by Municipality and year of election for

four consecutive Municipal Elections. The names highlighted with an asterisk, represent

Mayors who topped the polls for their respective political parties.

Invariably most of the mayoral candidates did not top the polls for the four elections

demonstrated in Table 7. In 1999, the first election of Mayor for the Belize City Council,

neither the winning candidate David Fonseca, nor the losing candidate Anthony “Boots”

Martinez, topped the polls for their respective political parties. In 2000 only 3 (18.7%) of

16 candidates for the Office of Mayor topped the polls. These were Cassian Nunez and

Anthony Channona as winning PUP candidates who topped the polls in Dangriga Town and

the City of Belmopan respectively (Table 7). Also the mayoral candidate for the UDP in

Punta Gorda, Benjamin Westby, topped the polls for his party, but lost the election to

Anthony Westby, the PUP candidate.

Some progress was realized for the 2003 Municipal Elections, as 5 of 9 winning Mayors

topped the polls. These were: David Fonseca and Anthony Channona, PUP candidates for

Belize City and City of Belmopan, respectively; Cassian Nunez (PUP) for Dangriga, Mario

Narvaez (PUP) for Corozal Town, and Said Badi Guerra (UDP) with 12 votes from Benque

Viejo del Carmen. The next two Municipal Elections 2006 and 2009 saw a decline, with

only 2 and 3 respectively, of the successful mayoral candidates topping the polls for their

respective political parties. For 2006, these were Frank “Papa” Mena for the UDP in


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Dangriga, and Elsa Paz for the UDP in San Pedro Ambergris Caye, both with small margins

of 5 votes each. Although Carlos “Obeah” Galvez (PUP) of Punta Gorda and Alfonso

Cruz, Jr. (UDP) of San Ignacio/Santa Elena won the Mayoral Office sought, they did not

top the polls for their respective political parties. In the case of Punta Gorda, Galvez

received the least amount of votes for his political party.

Table 7Vote Topping Elected Mayors by Election Year

Municipality 1999/2000 2003 2006 2009Corozal Mario Narvaez * Mario Narvaez Hilberto Campos Hilberto

CamposOrangeWalk

Reynaldo Burgos Henry Castillo Ravell Gonzalez Phillip de laFuenta

San Ignacio Orlando Habet Alfonso Cruz Jr. John August John August

BenqueViejo

Gerardo M. Sosa * Said “Badi”Guerra

Gerardo M. Sosa * NicolasitoRuiz

San Pedro Alberto “Beto”Nunez

Elsa Paz * Elsa Paz * Elsa Paz

Dangriga * Cassian Nunez * Cassian Nunez * Frank “Papa”Mena

AaronGongora

Punta Gorda Anthony L.Westby

Carlos “Obeah”Galvez

Carlos “Obeah”Galvez

Floyd Lino

Belmopan * AnthonyChannona

* AnthonyChannona

Simeon Lopez * SimeonLopez

Belize City David Fonseca * David Fonseca Zenaida Moya Zenaida MoyaSource: 2006 & 2009—www.elections.gov.bz; 2003— www.belize-elections.orgSource: 1999/2000—reference Tables 1 & 2

1999—Belize City only* Mayors who topped polls


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For 2009, the three Mayors who topped the polls were Elsa Paz, Nicolasito Ruiz and

Simeon Lopez, all UDP Mayors. The following are other observations for the 2009

Municipal Elections:

Belmopan: PUP mayoral candidate acquired more votes than the VIP mayoral

candidate

San Ignacio/Santa Elena: Independent mayoral candidate garnered more votes than

the PUP mayoral candidate

Mayors for Belize City, San Ignacio/Santa Elena received far less votes than

Councilors in their party

Belize City Mayor received the least amount of votes within the UDP

The data have indicated that the choices for mayoral candidates by the political parties

including the VIP were invariably not the choice of the Voters. This can be attributed not

only to choices at the local level for candidacy, but also by the persuasive influences of the

national leadership of the major political parties in the selection of candidates (Palacio,

1993).

Looking at Belize City

There are 10 electoral divisions or constituencies in Belize City, and for the 2009 Municipal

Elections statistics on voter participation by electoral division were downloaded from the

official website for the Elections and Boundaries Department, www.elections.gov.bz. The

data were further tallied and analyzed to obtain political party popularity for this study.

Table 8 displays political party popularity by electoral division, and includes voter turnout

for purposes of clarity, with footnotes to emphasize the limitations of various data provided.

At the time of analyzing this data (March 23, 2009), updates on the official website for

voter turnout for various constituencies still did not reflect the end of the polling hour.


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Five of the ten electoral divisions show high political party popularity of over 60% and are

listed below, in descending order of political party popularity (Table 8).

Mesopotamia (83.6%) UDP

Port Loyola (76%) UDP

Queens Square (75%) UDP

Collet (70.84%) UDP

Fort George (61.77%) PUP

Four of the five constituencies were won by the UDP and three of the four garnered overall

voter turnout of a little over 30%. Mesopotamia was the highest at 46.26%, and had the

second largest voter participation.

For the PUP, Fort George was the only electoral division (61.77%) among the top 5

identified above, followed by Albert Division with 52.44% party popularity. While Fort

George overwhelmingly won all polling areas of the constituency for the PUP, Albert

Division lost one polling area (#16) out of three polling areas, to garner a little over 50% for

the PUP popularity vote. The PUP in the Lake Independence electoral division garnered

equal number of votes as the UDP, and therefore both Parties obtained a draw (50%-50%);

with the UDP winning polling area #17B and the PUP victorious in polling area #17.

The UDP won the popularity contest in 7 out of 10 electoral divisions and overwhelmingly

in four of the 7 as highlighted above. The popularity in Freetown (52.3%), Caribbean

Shores 53.5%) and Pickstock (55.6%) were not so overwhelming, but it IS a win. Also

Pickstock demonstrated the lowest in voter turnout of approximately less than 25%, and so

did Port Loyola (Table 8). On another table on the official website that shows the results of


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voter turnout for all the municipalities, Belize City had an average of 42.1% voter turnout

(Appendix i)).

Cecil Reneau (PUP) lost to Zenaida Moya (UDP) for the Mayor’s Office sought, by

approximately 2700 votes or approximately 400 Electors, but he led his party in almost all

the electoral divisions for the PUP. Reneau performed well relative to his opponent Moya,

as he is a political novice, against Moya the incumbent. Also Reneau and his team had

approximately 6 weeks of campaign time, relative to Moya’s three years in office. The

convening of conventions to endorse candidates in the face of the election was not a good

approach employed by the PUP. Moya received the least votes for the UDP and

approximately 300 votes less than the vote topper, Eric Chang.

Table 8BELIZE CITY MINICIPAL ELECTIONS 2009

Political Party Popularity by Constituency

ElectoralDivision

% PartyUDP

PopularityPUP

VoterTurnout

Freetown 52.3 47.7 48.5Caribbean Shores 53.5 46.5 46.14Pickstock 55.6 44.4 23.81Fort George 38.23 61.77 31.91Albert 47.56 52.44 33.62Queens Square 75.0 25.0 38.29Mesopotamia 83.6 16.4 46.26Lake Independence 50.0 50.0 33.78Collet 70.84 29.16 33.74Port Loyola 76.0 24.0 30.01

Source: www.elections.gov.bz


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Eric Chang is not the first person of the Asian ethnic group to compete in Belize’s elections.

In 1954, the first election after universal adult suffrage, Jose Leon Chin won the Corozal

constituency for the PUP-GWU with 63.2% of the political party’s popularity vote (Palacio,

1993). Chin went on to contest the General Elections in 1957 under the HIP banner and

lost to Santiago Ricalde, receiving only 15.3% of the popular vote (Palacio, 1993). Mr. Jose

Leon Chin may have been the first, but subsequently others have competed. For example,

Paul Mahung topped the polls in the Punta Gorda Town Board Elections in 1981 for the

PUP (Palacio, 1999). A telephone conversation with Mr. Mahung6 not only confirmed the

election outcome, but that he identifies ethnically with his father. Lastly, as current as 2007,

Johnny Chee competed in the UDP convention for standard bearer in the Stann Creek West

Division, but lost the convention bid.

The 2000 Census Report places the Chinese population at approximately 0.8%. But

subsequent to this Report, the Chinese community has grown by leaps and bounds and

persons of Chinese descent are ubiquitous, particularly in Belize City. The Chinese

community exhibits all the symbols of being an ethnic group (Palacio, 1995). Generally,

its members have refrained from participating as party political candidates, and their

contributions are mainly as small to medium dry goods businesses and restaurant owners.

In Belize City, they have aggressively taken over the neighbourhood grocery stores, thereby

changing this Belizean culture in physical appearances and processes of conducting

business. Some of these stores also double as fast food (fried chicken) shops and oftentimes

as residences. These are located in every electoral division of Belize City since the last

decade, and have impacted greatly on the daily lives of Belizeans.

6 Paul Mahung’s father came from mainland China


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Table 9BELIZE CITY MINICIPAL ELECTIONS 2009

UDP Vote Toppers by Constituency

Electoral Division Chang Espejo EsquivelFreetown 941 901 924Caribbean Shores 1356 1356 1355Pickstock 587 579 593Fort George 495 477 485Albert 551 550 490Queens Square 1252 1237 1244Mesopotamia 1210 1217 1225Lake Independence 971 969 963Collet 1153 1144 1142Port Loyola 1081 1089 1090

Source: www.elections.gov.bz

While Eric Chang is not the first Chinese to contest elections in Belize, he may be the first

Chinese to do so in the largest metropolis, Belize City, which overtly consists of businesses

that are Chinese owned and managed. However, Eric Chang as a relatively “new”7

Belizean, and a political novice topped the polls for the UDP with a popularity vote that

surpassed that of the incumbent Mayor. In fact, Table 8 shows that Chang dominated 7 out

of 10 constituencies in topping the polls in these constituencies for the UDP. Although by a

small margin, he out-rightly won for the UDP the following electoral divisions of Belize

City: Freetown, Fort George, Albert, Queens Square, Lake Independence, and Collet.

Along with these six, Chang tied Caribbean Shores with another UDP candidate, Roger

Espejo. Eric Chang’s vote-topping may be no political accident, and may phenomenally

represent an ethnic vote in Belize City. The Chinese community came out to vote. The

participation of this single group, in an election that most other Belizeans “sat-out”, is

7 “New” relative to “Old” families resident 60+ years, e.g. Mahung, Mak, Liu, Wong K, Chee, Chin


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momentous. This vote may also have a significant impact in the future. What does it say

for Belize and political leadership in the future? Will this start a trend in ethnic voting and

if so, what will be its effect on Belize? These questions are urban anthropological in nature

and is worth researching if only for purposes of planning and policy in the future.

2009--Reporting of the Election ResultsInformation Communication Technology (ICT) has made communication of information

more effective and efficient via e-mails, telephones and websites, to name a few techniques

now utilized in Belize. Election results are important. Its timely communication

contributes to the concept of a free and fair election; and plays a vital factor in the practice

of good governance principles. More importantly, the information communicated must be

accurate and valid, and where there are errors, these are to be communicated in a transparent

and timely manner. The concepts emanating, namely, “timely, accuracy, valid,

transparent” are all principles of good governance as defined earlier in the document. It is

in this light that the following data are identified and examined. As mentioned in the

“Introduction”, there are important institutions mandated to report on and/or monitor

election outcomes. These are the Elections and Boundaries Department (Department) as the

arm of government responsible for election management, the Media which are deemed as

important in communicating valid, accurate information for the common good of the public;

and the Political Parties as direct participants in representing candidates.

On Thursday March 5, 2009, approximately 24 hours after the close of polls, the data on the

official website www.elections.gov.bz which publicized the outcome of the hourly count,

had not been updated to reflect the actual election outcomes at the close of polls for most of


75

Belize City (6 out of 10 Constituencies), Belmopan City, and 3 out of 7 Towns. A random

verification of the hourly count posted was conducted as a safeguard for data validity in this

study. The test revealed that Orange Walk Town was grossly overstated in voter turnout,

and already the Town was being touted in the Media as having the highest voter turnout,

and stood out over all other Municipalities. The overstatement resulted from a possible

mis-type for polling area #54 (La Immaculada R. C. School), which showed a voter turnout

of 112.60%. While Orange Walk Town was overstated the other Municipalities were

understated for reasons explained above and therefore indeed Orange Walk appeared to

stand out tremendously. For no other reason, but for the unusual performance, the data

should have been verified by the users of the information, specifically the Media. The error

was brought to the attention of at least one Media house early March 6, 2009 during the

morning Talk Shows. The Department corrected the error on the official website in its

update later that day on March 6, 2009 by over-writing the previous postings, but did not

elucidate the modifications.

Needless to say, the Media that utilized voter turnout in the news cast on March 5, 2009

used the wrong data as the bases for their viewpoints. It continued for the next two

mornings (March 5 & 6, 2009), on the Talk Shows both by Hosts and Callers. Channels 5

and 7 who are among the major news media houses in Belize, communicated the incomplete

and/or inaccurate data on Thursday, March 5, 2009 as “gazette”. In the case of Channel 5,

this was repeated on Friday March 6, 2009. Not only was the wrong data quoted with

confidence, but by so doing, gave unjustified perspectives. For example, Channel 7 on the

March 5 2009 evening news, some 2 days after the close of polls, determined a national

average of 48.71% and further offered the explanation quoted below that it was:


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“…low but not altogether anomalous as a review of past municipals showthat voter turnout averaging just over 50%, except in aberrant years like2003 when there were two elections in one.”

Channel 7’s news item continued that:

“The lowest turnout was recorded in Belize City with 36.8% turnout andthe highest in Orange Walk Town with 72.9% turnout followed closely byBenque at 71.9%.”

Channel 5 on March 6, 2009 evening news said in the opening statement that:“The official statistics are saying that the voter turnout in Wednesday’s

elections was within average, forty-eight percent. In Belize City, however,it was lower than in 2006, in fact by seventeen percent.”

Based on the findings in this study, several misinformation and misconceptions emerged in

the statement above by Channel 7 on March 5, 2009, four of which are highlighted below:

1. all the percentages of voter turnout quoted are incorrect2. “just over 50%” voter turnout was never been the norm3. voter turnout in 2009 IS altogether anomalous, and is

unprecedented4. national average comparisons can only be from 2003

The Department as is its legal responsibility, had posted the results on the official website

by the evening of March 6, 2009, some two days after the election. But Channel 5

continued to repeat similar wrong information as Channel 7, even after two days had lapsed,

and with modifications posted by the Department. Not only were the percentages wrong,

but qualifying it as “within average” was grossly inaccurate. It is apparent, therefore that

the Media may not have exercised due diligence in their “review of past municipals”, in

sourcing and/or monitoring the accuracy and validity of data before communicating such to

its trusting public.


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Four other observations are worthy of mentioning regarding the data posted by the Elections

and Boundaries Department and are bulleted as follows:

The modifications on the official website were observed between March 6, 2009 andMarch 25, 2009—2 days to 3 weeks after the 2009 election

Updates to the website---a) one modification was made to the voter turnout forBelize City and went from 43.90% to 42.10%; b) two modifications were made tothe voter turnout for San Ignacio/Santa Elena on separate dates, and voter turnoutchanged from 22.85% to 42.41% to 54.29%; Corozal from 63.35%8

All voter turnout are slightly overstated for each Municipality due to incorrectdivisors9 used (Appendix i)

Miscalculation of ballots cast for Belize City, Belmopan, Corozal, and Dangriga

As offered in the section on “Definitions”, the calculation of the percentage of voter turnout

is the total number of ballots cast divided by total number of registered voters. Ballots cast

in the case of Municipal Elections represent voters who came to vote—one ballot cast, one

voter. The official results on the official website continuously utilized “ballots used”

instead of “ballots cast” as its divisor in calculating voter turnout. This is inaccurate, as

there are “spoilt ballots” in every case that needs to be deducted from “ballots used” to

obtain “ballots cast”. Doing otherwise is overstating the number of Voters who came to

vote, and may be diverting from the definition of “ballots cast” as per the ROPA. While the

errors may be an oversight by the Department, these are highlighted in this paper for

reasons of transparency and accountability, and also because these are widely publicized

officially, and on the World Wide Web no less.

8 No warnings indicating date of modification and reasons, e.g. a flash as a guide to data users9 Divisor used was # of ballots used instead of # of ballots cast up to March 25, 2009


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The overstatements range from 0.7% to 0.60% and may appear somewhat inconsequential

because the number of spoilt ballots is traditionally small (Appendix i). Had it been larger,

the voter turnout could have been grossly miscalculated by the Department. The

inaccuracies, no matter the amount are significant as it clouds the perception of data

integrity and validity of information resulting from such data. It needs to be highlighted for

reasons of transparency, not because the errors occurred, but more that it happened so

consistently, went unnoticed on the Official Website some three weeks after the close of

polls, and that modifications were not highlighted for clarity.


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PART 3

CONCLUSION

SummaryMost of us have at the back of our minds an awareness of socio-political and socio-cultural

profile of Belize; but this awareness is primarily based on innate feelings. In a rapidly

growing state, such as Belize, such gut reactions have its limitations. This study is a

contribution to ongoing academic research on Belize. ICT was the method employed to

economically distribute the first draft to a broad public of Belizeans and students on Belize.

A wide dissemination is also one way of bestowing thanks on “giving” community

members, most of whom are always willing to share their information. Election is a vital

tool in our democracy, not only because it is the primary means of participation, but also

that the outcome affects all aspects of people’s lives, such as the dispensing of scarce

resources, jobs, housing, land; are all tied directly to the political system. Things elections

in Belize appear simple and straightforward on the surface, but when one delves further, the

complexities become obvious; as is highlighted in this study.

The much awaited Municipal Elections of 2009 have come and gone, and while the number

of seats remain the same as in 2006 (64 for UDP, 3 for PUP); the political circumstances

have altered to some extent. For the opposition PUP, whatever little municipal power


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gained, is now concentrated in one municipality of the country. Orange Walk Town10 is the

home and part constituency (polling areas #54 & #53) of the newly elected PUP Leader.

The PUP garnered 3 seats in the Orange Walk Town Council; nearly, but not enough votes

to win the Town. Compounded by the marginal feat of the constituencies manned by the

two Deputy Party Leaders in the Belize City Council Elections, 2009 did not augur well for

the PUP. The UDP on the other hand, has obtained absolute power, having consolidated

authority over all 9 municipalities and maintaining super-majority in the House of

Representatives. At the same time, the political parties have lost their appeal to the

electorate. They sat-out the election at a deafening rate by not turning out to vote, and

those who voted, resoundingly avoided the leaders (Mayoral candidates) imposed by the

political parties on the ballots. The former that of lowest voter turnout is unprecedented, but

the latter (choice of candidates) is like a canker that has gone unnoticed for too long.

The study made the case that transparency and accountability are much touted principles of

good governance which are also vital in our democracies. Further, the research has

identified three institutions that are considered to be an indispensable element in a

democracy, and should be cognizant of practicing good governance principles. The

constant modifications11 by the Department were not arranged in a transparent manner and

while it is human to err, transparency allows for clear communication of the error and the

modification. That this was not done in a timely manner is what is highlighted in this paper.

10 PUP won #’s 53 &54 with popularity of approximately 54%, but lost #’s 60 & 55 (46% & 39%)11Cursory check of the official website on April 14, 2009 identified another modification: Voter turnout wascorrected to reflect the accurate data as highlighted in “Glessima” column in Appendix i, except for slighterrors in ballots cast for Corozal and Dangriga. No changes will be made to the paper at this late time &readers are asked to utilize Appendix i for the “new” Official Voter turnout as at April 14, 2009—e.g. BelizeCity now shows a voter turnout of 41.94%, instead of 42.1%. It does not affect the substance of this study.


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Both News and Talk Show Media enjoy a fiduciary relationship with its public, who rely on

the Media organizations for news and other information. This study has shown that the

Media misrepresented the facts and downplayed the outcome of the 2009 elections with

statements such as, “altogether anomalous” and “within average”. Whether this was

deliberate or not is outside the scope of this paper; but it warrants sharing the following

observations by other journalists.

Firstly, Richard Merrill in his usual “Commentary” on Love FM sometime in February

2009 advised the Media to apply the four-way Rotary test. Secondly, G. Mike Reid on July

20, 2008 and Kwesi Pandy on the same date critiqued the Belize Media in separate

newspapers. Reid’s article in The Belize Times entitled, “The Colour of Journalism in

Belize”, offered that:

“…true journalism …draws a distinction between the reporting of facts andthe expression of opinions. In Belize, the line seems almost non-existentand it is often quite difficult to figure whether we are getting facts oropinion.”

Kwesi Pandy’s article in The Reporter of the abovementioned date was entitled “Talk for

Show” where he offered that:

“…If the shows are supposed to educate us then why are they, very often,limited to the opinions of the hosts?”

Pandy continues that he,“…does not see enough or rather hear enough opinion substantiated bystatistics, research, or expert guests. What is fact and what is fiction? Thelines are blurred badly….”

Both newspaper articles speak about a Belize Media that distorts facts or don’t encourage

the presentation of facts, and coupled with the findings in this study, it appears that the

Belize Media may be hindering the values of transparency and accountability while


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appearing to serve those values. Various Talk Shows touted that Chan was the first Chinese

to contest elections, and Media colleagues were unaware or overlooked that one of their

own, Paul Mahung was a vote-topper for the 1981 Town Board Elections in Punta Gorda,

and identifies as Chinese.

Lastly, the third institution is the political party and all political parties have been quiet on

the invalid data issue. Two inferences can be drawn from the silence—lack of awareness or

perceive the issue as trivial; and the general reaction during an election aftermath. The

political culture as has been observed before is that the winners are rejoicing and the losers

have yet to fully recover. Generally, there is a tacit understanding among Voters that the

two major political parties are still the vehicles to election success.

TrendsThe following bullet points highlight particular myths dispelled in this research and various

trends in Municipal Elections.

Electoral reform implemented through the Town and City Councils Acts regularizedelection dates, allowed for election of Mayor, and one Municipal Election

Voter turnout for Town Boards and Town Councils have traditionally andconsistently been high—well above 50%

Back-to-back election was the norm until 2003 Wide shift of electorate is based largely on the burning issues for a particular period Dangriga Town traditionally has lower voter turnout compared with San Pedro

Ambergris Caye and Benque Viejo Belize’s Media misrepresented facts, and downplayed election outcomes Introduction of an ethnic vote in Belize’s political culture coined political

ethnicization Official results of voter turnout posted on the World Wide Web were inaccurate with

numerous modifications without transparency Belizeans of Chinese descent have been participating in Belize’s election since 1954


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Women’s participation at the level of candidacy traditionally small in number, but ahigher voting consciousness

Women’s participation in 2009 appealed to voters Most Mayoral candidates presented on the ballot do not appeal to voters Candidates are selected by political parties by way of their own processes—a

powerful task, but there is no legal framework to regulate political parties The combined Municipal Elections have started a trend of the winner-take-all which

leaves a power imbalance

Election PhenomenaThis election also had its share of rare occurrences, most notably having to do with voter

turnout or lack of it. Voter turnout is voter participation at the polls and to a great extent

communicates voter attitude. This IS the post-election issue for any political aspirant.

Although the study compared and analysed the statistics about political party and leadership

popularity, a “sit-out” by voters in each and every Municipality is the most crucial

information. Voter turnout was an unprecedented low for each of the 9 Municipalities.

Belize City, the largest municipality has a Council that was voted in by less than 50% of the

eligible electorate, and obtained the lowest turnout for the entire country. The last case of a

minority vote occurred some 13 years ago, in 1996, and also for Belize City. The

possibility of the introduction of political ethnicization, is worth further research, as its

practice may have far reaching effects in the near future.

The super-majority in the House of Representatives of 25 out of 31 seats garnered by the

UDP at the polls in 2008, is not the first for either of the major political parties in post-

independent Belize. Table 1 demonstrates that UDP in 1984 also obtained super-majority

with 21 out of 28 seats or 75%. Similarly, the PUP in 1998 won 26 out of 29 seats or

89.7%; and in 2003, 22 out of 29 seats or 75.8%) in the House of Representatives. In 2003,


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the PUP’s super-majority was short-lived as the outcome of a by-election to replace a

deceased member in the Cayo South constituency was garnered by the UDP, taking away

the three-fourths majority from the PUP. The difference with the circumstances in 2009 is

that at those times the process of garnering super-majority in the House and management of

all municipalities was gradual, but in 2009 it happened all at the same time. This is an

outcome of the winner-takes-all trend of the now combined Municipal Elections. Things

elections in Belize only appear simple!


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REFERENCES CITED

Bernard, H. Russell. 1994. Research Methods in Anthropology: Qualitative andQuantitative Approaches. Sage Publications.

“…But Voter Turnout was only 52 Percent.” March 5, 2009. www.channel5belize.com.

Government of Belize. 2000. The ROPA Chapt. 9. Revised 2000.

Hill, Patricia. 1990. Black Feminist Thought: Knowledge Consciousness and thePolitics of Empowerment. Unwin Hyman.

“NGO’s Sets Up Trust Fund. July 11, 1993. The People’s Pulse. Pg. 7.

“Landslide Victory for UDP in Municipal Elections.” March 5, March 2009.www.7newsbelize.com.

Palacio, I. Myrtle. 1990. “A Socio-Economic Profile of Belize City.” SPEAReport6. Belize: Cubola.

-----. 1991. “Belize City Council Elections: Who is Participating.”SPEAReport 7. Belize: Cubola.

-----. 1993. Who and What in Belizean Elections, 1954 -1993. Belize: GlessimaResearch and Services Ltd.

-----. 1995. “Redefining Ethnicity: The Experiences of the Garifuna and Creole inPost-independence Belize.” Thesis. University of New Orleans.

-----. 1999. Selecting Our Leaders Past and Present. Belize: Government of Belize

-----. 2003. “Report on General and Municipal Elections, held March 2003”

-----. 2005. “The Election Management Body: Belize’s Experience in Post-Independence.” Paper presented at the Conference “Improving the Quality of ElectionManagement. New Delhi, India February 24, 2005.

-----. 2007. “Annual Report April 2006 to March 2007—Office of Governance,


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Government of Belize”. Belize: Government of Belize.

Pandy, Kwesi. 2008. “Talk For Show.” The Reporter. 20 July 2008

Reid, Mike G. “The Colour of Journalism in Belize.” The Belize Times. 20 July 2008

“Registration Drama in Orange Walk”. July 11, 1993. The People’s Pulse. Pg. 4.

“SPEAR Gives Independent Assessment of Elections.” March , 2009.www.channel5belize.com.

“The Blue Tsunami”. October 22, 2010. www.belizetimes.bz


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Appendix iMUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 2009

Voter Turnout Variances in *Official and Actual Data

Municipality *OfficialData

Glessima’sCalculation

Variance

Belize City 42.10 41.94 .16Belmopan 51.46 51.29 .17Corozal 63.57 63.31 .26Orange Walk 66.86 66.26 .60San Pedro Ambergris 61.34 61.06 .28Benque 66.41 66.30 .11San Ignacio/Santa Elena 54.29 54.22 .07Dangriga 51.23 50.98 .25Punta Gorda 58.59 58.43 .16National Average 57.32 57.09 --

Source: 2006 & 2009—website www.elections.gov.bz on March 25, 2009*2009 slightly overstated due to wrong calculations & wrong divisor used

Website modifications between March 6 and March 25, 2009:1. Belize City changed from 43.90% to 42.10%2. San Ignacio changed from 22.85% to 42.41% to 54.29%

Documents

Review of Municipal Elections in Post-Independent Belize