RETAIL MARKET DEMAND STUDY: ARNPRIOR, ONTARIO

FINAL REPORT

Prepared for:

The Town of Arnprior

Prepared by:

Shore-Tanner & Associates

With Support from

McSweeney & Associates

November, 2014

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page number

I. Executive Summary 3

II. Trade Area Demographics 17

III. Trade Area Telephone Survey 29

IV. Executive Interviews with Business Owners/Managers 33

V. Retail Market Trends 41

VI. Existing Retail Inventory 46

VII. Retail Demand and Gap Analysis 51

VIII. An Economic Overview of Arnprior 66

Appendices:

A. Telephone Survey Instrument and Detailed Results 84

B. Executive Interview Guide 104

C. Retail and Service Businesses In Arnprior 107

D. More Information Regarding Shore-Tanner & Associates and the Main Author of This Report 116

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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On behalf of the Town of Arnprior, this study has been carried out by Shore-Tanner & Associates with support from McSweeney & Associates, both independent Ottawa-based consulting firms.

The purpose of the study is to first review the Arnprior retail market in order to determine the shopping patterns of its residents, demand for market-viable amounts and types of retail and service floor space and leakages of shopping dollars into and out of Arnprior; and then prepare a Retail Action Plan to improve the performance of Arnprior’s retail market. The study’s main findings are presented below, followed by more substantiation in the main body of this report and its appendices.

A. Socio-Demographic Findings

1. The total population of the Arnprior Area increased by an average of 205 or 2.3% annually from 9,076 in 2006 to 10,100 in 20111

2. The total population of the Primary Trade Area of Arnprior’s businesses was 15,485 in 2011.

(Table 2.1). This rate of growth is high compared to the accepted 1% growth which generally represents a healthy demographic trend. The Arnprior Area’s future growth, furthermore, is expected to be between 200 and 300 annual ly.

3. Arnprior’s retail businesses attract customers from the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County as well (e.g., Cobden, Beachburg, Calabogie, Horton, White Lake and other villages and communities there). This County’s 2011 population of 101,330 reflects an average annual growth of 757 or 0.8% since 2006, and of course, only part of this growth, estimated at approximately 250, took place in the County’s Eastern Parts.

1 In view of the large amount of retail and service floor space, we have used Statistics Canada’s larger population for Arnprior rather than the 2011 population of Arnprior (T) of 8,115. The Primary Trade Area (PTA) for Arnprior’s businesses, however, includes the Township of McNab/ Braeside, and thus the 2011 total PTA population used for this report’s retail analysis is 15,485 (the detailed socio-demographic data and analysis are provided for Arnprior since the study concerns Arnprior and its retail market).

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4. The overall average household size in Arnprior was 2.29 persons in 2011, and 68.8% or 6.9 in 10 of all its households consisted of only one or two persons (Table 2.3). M oreover, these households are expected to increase more rapidly than households wi th three or more persons in the coming years.

B. Housing

1. Single detached units are dominant in the Arnprior Area as they represent 59.9% or 6 in 10 of all housing units (Table 2.4).

2. Ground-oriented housing, which includes all units but those in buildings with 5 or more storeys, made up 97.7% of all housing units in the Arnprior Area.

3. For the period 2009-2013, the overall average number of housing starts in Arnprior is 89 units per year (Table 2.5).

4. In 2013, a total of 168 units were started, and the average for the coming years is expected to be in the range of 100-140 annually.

C. Labour Force and Employment

1. In 2011, a total of 3,970 of Arnprior’s residents were working within or outside this town (Table 2.6).

2. The three largest occupational categories were (and likely still are in 2014):

• Sales and services 990 or 24.9% • Business, Finance & Administration 620 or 15.6% • Trades Transport & Related 610 or 15.4%

Total 2,220 or 55.9%

3. The number of jobs (i.e., people working in Arnprior) was 5,144 in 2012 (Table 2.7).

4. The three largest employment groups in Arnprior are:

• Manufacturing 1,245 or 24.2% • Retail Trade 891 or 17.3% • Health Care & Social Services 725 or 14.1%

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Total 2,861 55.6%

5. A comparison of the above labour force and employment indicates that at least 1,000 of the people who work in Arnprior l ive somewhere else.

It should be noted that most small towns in Ontario (all of Canada in fact) have very few manufacturing jobs or none at all. The 1,245 manufacturing jobs in Arnprior is one of the town’s strengths, especially since every manufacturing job generates up to four jobs in other sectors of the local, regional, provincial and/ or national economies.

D. Incomes

1. The overall average household income in the Arnprior Area was $66,287 in 2011 (Table 2.8).

2. More than 1 in 4 of all households (26.0%) had incomes of over $80,000.

3. The households with incomes of more than $100,000 were 695 or 15.8% (i.e., 1 in 6.3 households).

E. Telephone Survey Findings

In May and June 2014, we conducted a telephone survey with 200 households in Arnprior and 200 in the surrounding areas (Appendix A). Key findings of this survey are:

1. The supermarkets, drug stores, restaurants, gift shops and hardware stores in Arnprior capture 50.3% to 76.2% of the Arnprior residents’ total spending at these store types. The rest of their spending is done at stores located outside Arnprior (Table A.11)

2. Costco, Walmart, furniture & electronics, clothing & shoe, specialty foods and department stores located outside Arnprior capture 56.4% to 100.0% of Arnprior residents’ total spending at these store types.

3. Overal l , Arnprior businesses capture only 35.1% of Arnprior residents’ total expendi tures at al l stores combined. The balance of 64.9% or almost two out of every three dollars, is spent at businesses located outside Arnprior (mostly in the towns of Renfrew and Carleton Place and the City of Ottawa).

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4. Some residents of the rest of the Trade Area outside Arnprior also shop at a number of businesses in Arnprior. The drug stores, restaurants & bars, and the supermarkets in Arnprior capture 58.3% to 68.0% of the spending of some of these outside residents’ total expenditures at such stores.

5. The five most desired new or additional businesses by the survey respondents are (in descending order of mentions):

• Shoe stores • More & better clothing stores • A Walmart store • Improving the existing stores • Specialty/ unique/ eclectic stores

F. Executive Interviews with Business Owners/Managers

We conducted in-person and confidential interviews with 20 managers and/ or owners of Arnprior businesses based on the guide in Appendix B. The main findings of this component of the study are as follows:

1. Arnprior’s natural attributes and amenities, a strong sense of community, and little or no competition for some of its businesses are its major positive attributes and strengths.

2. The most significant problems for Arnprior’s business community are:

• Shopping by its residents at businesses elsewhere.

• Lack of enough variety of businesses.

• Too many vacant stores.

3. Business owners/ managers would like the Town of Arnprior to:

• Promote its natural amenities and attract tourists.

• Create and/ or promote festivals, events and special activities.

• Help to attract businesses to Arnprior, especially for its vacant stores.

4. Half of the 20 businesses generate 11% to 25% of their total annual sales, and 35% of them, 25% to 50% of their total annual sales from residents, businesses and institutions outside Arnprior.

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5. Half of the businesses have experienced increasing, and the other half declining total annual sales in the last two years.

6. Flyers, radio and television are most often used for promotion by the businesses whose owners/ managers were interviewed.

7. The most frequently mentioned desired new or additional businesses for the 20 interviewees are:

• A Walmart store

• A shoe store

• Better restaurants

• More clothing stores

• More variety of businesses

G. Demand and Gap Analysis

1. On an overall average basis, the residents of the Trade Area are estimated to spend a total of $16,701 per person in 2014 at all retail and service businesses within, as well as outside this area (Table 7.1). By the year 2024, this expenditure is estimated to increase to $18,255 in the constant value of the Canadian dollar in 2013 (Table 7.2).

2. The total population of the Arnprior Area is estimated to increase by an average of 260 or 2.4% annually from 10,700 in 2014 to 13,300 in 2024 (Table 7.3). The Eastern Parts of Renfrew County are also an area from which Arnprior businesses attract customers. This area’s population is estimated to increase by an average of 160 or 0.8% from approximately 18,900 in 2014 to 20,500 in 2024.

3. The total population of the PTA in 2014 is estimated at 16,400 in 2014, and 20,300 in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth of 390 or 2.4%.

4. The total spending of Arnprior residents at al l businesses wi thin, as wel l as outside Arnprior i s estimated to be $178.7 mi l l ion in 2014, and should increase to $242.8 mi l l ion by 2024 (Table 7.4). The PTA’s total expendi ture is estimated at $273.8 mi l l ion in 2014, and $370.6 mi l l ion in 2024. The expendi ture potential of the Eastern Parts of Renf rew County (which make up the Secondary Trade Area or STA for Arnprior’s businesses) is

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estimated at $306.2 mi l l ion in 2014 and $374.3 mi l l ion in 2024 (Table 7.5). These large expendi tures are potential ly avai lable for al l of Arnprior’s businesses to draw f rom.

5. The total spending of Arnprior residents is estimated to support between 299,400 and 431,900 sq. ft. of retail and service floor space within, as well as outside Arnprior in 2014 (Table 7.6). The expenditures of the PTA residents is estimated to be supporting a minimum of 459,200 sq. ft. of floor space within and also outside the PTA in 2014.

6. By the year 2024, Arnprior residents’ total expenditure would support an estimated 408,300 to 589,100 sq. ft. of floor space (again, within and outside Arnprior). The PTA residents’ expenditures would support an estimated minimum total of 629,000 sq. ft. of retail and service floor space by 2024.

7. At a minimum, the total expendi tures of the Arnprior residents would support a 108,900 sq. f t. INCREASE in retai l and service f loor space wi thin as wel l as outside Arnprior by the year 2024 (Table 7.8). The equivalent for the expendi tures of the PTA residents would be a 172,100 sq. f t. INCREASE.

8. The total expenditures of the rest of the Trade Area (which includes Eastern Parts of Renfrew County) would support an estimated minimum of 480,400 sq. ft. INCREASE in floor space by the year 2024 (Table 7.9). The share of the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County from this total is estimated at 108,500 sq. ft.

9. The maximum supportable floor space by the expenditures of Arnprior residents in 2014 is 431,900 sq. ft., and by the residents of the PTA is 459,200 sq. ft. (Table 7.6). With the additional supportable space of 108,900 sq. ft. (Table 7.8), the grand total supportable floor space would be 540,800 sq. ft. in 2024 or an average of 41 sq. ft. per capita, which is quite generous in view of the industry standard of 30 to 40 sq. ft.

10. By 2024, the PTA could support a total of 629,300 sq. ft. of floor space or an average of 31 sq. ft. per person at a population of 20,300.

11. The existing total floor space in Arnprior in 2014 is 644,400 sq. ft. which reflects an average per capita space of 64 sq. ft. in Arnprior, and 39 sq. ft. in the PTA, both of which are too high (Table 6.1).

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12. In other words, even i f al l of the Arnprior Area residents were to spend 100% of thei r shopping dol lars at businesses w i thin Arnprior between now and 2024, Arnprior’s existing f loor space would sti l l exceed thei r demand, which is to say that Arnprior is over-stored at present for i ts own residents, and this over-storage is l ikely to continue to the year 2024 and beyond.

13. For the PTA population of 16,400 in 2014, the existing total space of 644,400 sq. f t. means an average per capi ta space of 39 sq. f t. which is high.

14. However, some of Arnprior’s businesses have been attracting shoppers from outside. As well, the expenditures of the residents of the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County are estimated to require 108,500 sq. ft. of additional floor space by 2024 (Table 7.9). I t i s therefore concluded that Arnprior businesses as a whole must attract more shoppers f rom outside Arnprior, especial ly f rom the Eastern Parts of Renf rew County which are under-stored, to improve thei r sales and market shares.

15. Many new businesses in Arnprior which are likely to attract shoppers from outside Arnprior are the same which Arnprior residents themselves would also like to see in Arnprior. In fact, these are the businesses located outside Arnprior which capture the majority of Arnprior residents’ total spending.

16. In order to reduce the Arnprior residents’ shopping at businesses outside Arnprior, as wel l as to attract more shoppers f rom outside Arnprior, we recommend the businesses identi f ied in Table 1.1.

17. The recommended businesses are expected to have three functions:

a. Attract more shoppers from outside Arnprior.

b. Increase cross-shopping by shoppers from outside Arnprior.

c. Increase the spending of Arnprior residents at businesses within Arnprior, and thus reduce their spending at outside businesses.

18. The recommended new businesses as well as the renovation and expansion of the existing ones should be quick in order to have the necessary impact on the shopping patterns and habits of the entire Trade Area, including the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County, Lanark County and parts of Western Ottawa. At a minimum, a couple of the recommended large stores and five of the smaller ones should be developed within the next three years.

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H. RECOMMENDED RETAIL ACTION PLAN

General Recommendations

1. The Town of Arnprior, property owners, business owners, developers, community groups and other major stakeholders are recommended to come together, communicate, determine objectives and priorities regarding the further prosperity of Arnprior’s businesses.

There are issues and ideas which may not be well enough known by various stakeholders in the Town of Arnprior; desire and/ or need for changes may not be equally shared; and visions for the future of the Town may be conflicting. Examples in this regard include:

a. Whether and how to re-start a BIA.

b. Whether, how and at what cost residential development, especially in the downtown area, should be promoted.

c. To what extent should or can tourism be increased in the Town.

d. Is it now time to again try to attract a Walmart or a similar store into Arnprior in view of the significant outflow of shopping dollars from Arnprior to these stores in Renfrew, Carleton Place and Ottawa?

There are several such issues which have in the past been divisive. In view of the deteriorating conditions of Arnprior’s retail market, these issues have to be well understood and addressed. There can rarely be agreements by all stakeholders on such controversial issues. Progress, however, is quite possible and needed to reverse the deteriorating trends, and this requires cooperation and compromise by all stakeholders involved.

2. M ore employment, especial ly of f ice, knowledge-based, clean manufacturing, processing and assembly are recommended for Arnprior. A ll stakeholders, in particular developers with a long history of involvement in the Arnprior area, are recommended to pro-actively search, encourage,

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and by offering incentives and other innovative ideas, attract such companies into Arnprior.2

In this regard, we recommend that the Town of Arnprior engage the services of an economic development consulting firm to study all other sectors of Arnprior’s economy (i.e., all non-retail sectors) in order to provide an economic blueprint or strategy to sustain the town’s economic future.

3. The retai l sector of the Town of Arnprior, especial ly i ts downtown, needs more population to support the existing retai l businesses. More residential developments and intensification, particularly in downtown, are recommended to be encouraged. (Through incentives and other innovative programs, the City of Ottawa and many other municipalities have had good success in attracting more residential developments in their downtowns). In Arnprior, the Community Improvement Plan’s Downtown Housing Grant, and other such incentives may have to be expanded, promoted or otherwise become more effective.

4. In the retail industry, it is common to charge low rents of up to 15% below the prevailing market rates for the first couple of years if a new or existing business relocates, as long as the business is solid and has a business plan and/ or successful history. At times also, no rent at all is charged for a few years if, and only if, the new business undertakes major renovations of the premises. We are aware of many such practices in Ottawa and elsewhere. We recommend that landlords in Arnprior follow these practices for new retail businesses, for stores which have been vacant for a long time, as well as for stores which are at a disadvantage in terms of parking, condition, or other qualities, such as location, age of building, etc.

Retail Industry Context and Arnprior-Specific Recommendations

Regardless of how well or poorly a retail facility or a shopping district performs, its sales, market share, profitability and overall image and functions can always be further improved.

2 Employees and the customers of their organizations support more retail and service businesses through their personal and business spending. As well, more employment brings more families and thus increases the market base for Arnprior’s businesses.

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Over the last 15 years, Arnprior has lost some of its appeal and success due to competition in nearby towns as far as its retail sector is concerned. At the same time, in the competitive and rapidly changing retail market environment of today, it is a major challenge for all shopping facilities to maintain market shares and to stay ahead of competition.

To successfully face this challenge, new thinking and approaches to merchandising and customer relationships are required. Targeted use of social media, better understanding of retail market trends, and more awareness of the needs, preferences, lifestyles and desires of shoppers are among the key elements of new thinking and approaches. These, in turn, require up-to-date socio-demographic data, information on shopper characteristics and behaviour, and knowledge of the existing businesses within one’s own shopping area.

In this context, there are a number of short, medium and long-term improvements to undertake for the Town as a whole, and especially its downtown, in order to achieve two crucial objectives for Arnprior businesses:

M arket share retention

M arket share growth

The achievement of these objectives, however, is beyond the resources, knowledge and capabilities of a single stakeholder. A ll have to participate, cooperate and work together. Communication in this regard is crucial.

1. Leasing up, and quickly, the existing vacant stores is very important for the market image and success of all businesses in Arnprior. Low rents, generous tenant inducements, and other creative arrangements have to be considered by landlords for this purpose. Any “ give away” in the first couple of years will be more than compensated later.

2. Street beautification by the Town, landlords and business owners is equally important for market share retention and growth. More special new lampposts, trees, flowers, sidewalks, landscaping, public and interactive arts and pedestrianization where possible would not only retain market share, it would also attract new shoppers, and influence the spending of current and loyal shoppers as well. In this regard, it should be noted that the Town of Arnprior developed a street beautification plan in 2012 which is currently

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being implemented. In our view, this Plan should be ful ly supported and continued in the coming years since another major benef i t of i t is that i t encourages business and property owners to beauti fy thei r facades and to restore a sense of civic pride in Arnprior.

3. The current run-down, dated and tired-looking stores and buildings need to be re-skinned, renovated, or re-developed. They are negatively impacting the street-scape in Arnprior and thereby hurting existing business. They are also discouraging new businesses from considering relocation into or establishing new stores in Arnprior.

4. We recommend that the Town of Arnprior: a. Distribute print copies of this the Executive Summary and Appendix C

of this report to every business in Arnprior. b. Continue to obtain the full names of all businesses and property owners

in Arnprior, their address, phone, fax and email, and communicate with them on any business-related news (again, the Town launched a business registry initiative last year, and plans to pursue these issues with the Chamber this Fall, all of which are needed and should be continued, in our view).

c. Ensure all business owner/ managers know the names and contact information of the Town’s Economic Development Staff.

d. Periodically offer 1.0 to 3.0 hour workshops and seminars by outside experts on: Employee Training and Retention; Customer Relations; Merchandizing Trends; Financial Planning; Taxes; Automation; Successions Planning; Promotion; Other needed services by small businesses.

e. Work with the community, business and property owners and the farming community to promote the existing Farmers’ Market on Saturdays from May to October. Farmers’ Markets have increasingly become more popular in the past 5 years, and their future growth prospects are very favourable.

5. Social M edia

The residents of Arnprior’s Trade Area are highly educated and more than two-thirds of them use various social media. To attract and keep younger customers, it is recommended that businesses in Arnprior increase their use

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of social media, create, update and/ or improve their websites with mobile applications.

6. Recommended New Businesses

In Table 1.1, we have provided a list of the businesses which are either needed as indicated by the consumer telephone surveys, or would add to the overall attractiveness of Arnprior for shoppers from the rest of the Trade Area and beyond.

The three hardware stores in Arnprior attract many customers from outside. A ll three would further benefit from renovations and expansions. In this regard, we are in full support of the possible expansion of the existing Canadian Tire Store.

The Metro Supermarket, and to a lesser extent, other food stores, also attract customers from outside. We recommend in favour of one of the supermarkets to expand. A lternatively, a third supermarket, such as a Sobey’s, should be targeted for attraction to Arnprior.

There are many eating-drinking businesses in Arnprior, especially fast food and take-outs. The quantity is therefore not a problem. The Trade Area residents, however, would like better quality and upgraded as well as some different restaurants.

There are, generally, few clothing and no shoe stores in Arnprior. Up to two shoe stores, three women’s and children’s and one mid-priced men’s clothing would, to a large extent, reverse shopping at stores outside Arnprior, and attract more shoppers from outside who would most likely shop at other businesses in Arnprior as well.

A Walmart store has been mentioned by many of the shoppers in the telephone survey, as well as by a number of the business owners/ managers interviewed. Their desire and need, however, do not automatically mean enough market (i.e., sales) for such a store. A Walmart store is of course desirable in Arnprior. However, with one in the Town of Renfrew and another in Carleton Place, it is questionable whether a Walmart store would be attracted to Arnprior (at least in the first few years, it would have to take customers away from the nearby Walmart stores with little net benefit to the company as a whole). On the other hand, there are times when a large chain

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store opens in an area to prevent the competition and/ or to build the necessary customer base for the coming years. It would thus be worthwhile for the Town to contact large chain stores such as Winner’s, Target, and other large discount stores (directly or indirectly) to assess their interest in this regard.

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Table 1.1 Recommended New or Additional Businesses To Select For Arnprior

Business Type or Name Approximate Size (sq. ft.)

1. A new supermarket OR 50,000 2. Renovation and expansion of Metro and/or No Frills 50,000 (combined addition) 3. Produce store 5,000 4. A Lowe’s store OR 50,000 5. Renovation and Expansion of Canadian Tire and/or

TSC Hardware, and/or Home Hardware 60,000 (combined addition)

6. Walmart OR Target department store 80,000 7. Renovation/Upgrade of Hart department store --------- 8. Two shoe stores 10,000 (combined) 9. Three mid-priced women’s and children’s clothing stores 10,000 (combined)

10. One mid-priced men’s clothing store 3,000 11. Three well-established, mid-priced table service restaurants 10,000 (combined) 12. Three specialty, gifts or craft stores 7,000 13. Renovations, upgrades and re-merchandizing of many

of the existing stores

Total: 16 new stores 235,000

Notes:

1. Sizes are approximate.

2. The primary purpose of the above is to at t ract more shoppers from outside Arnprior. The secondary purpose is to reduce the shopping of Arnprior residents at outside businesses.

3. A Walmart store would be highly popular based on the telephone survey resul ts. However, wi th one in the Town of Renfrew and another in the Town of Carleton Place, i t i s quest ionable whether a Walmart store would be at t racted to Arnprior. (At least in i ts fi rst few years, i t would have to take customers away from the nearby Walmart stores wi th l i t t le net benefi t to company as a whole).

4. The above stores are needed in Arnprior. However, to be viable as wel l as needed, the recommended Act ion Plan must be implemented in a t imely fashion.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

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II. TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHICS

A. Trade Area

Every business has a catchment, market or trade area. These are areas from which businesses attract their customers.

The trade area for a small, local business such as a convenience store consists mostly of residents, employees and others within a few blocks. For many businesses, the effective trade area is the area within about 30 minutes drive. For unique or very large stores, such as IKEA, the trade area can be within two hours drive or even longer.

Cities, towns and villages with populations of up to 50,000 (in some cases up to 100,000), do not offer (i.e., cannot support) the full line of retail and services for their residents. In such places, the choice of stores is limited. Certain needed stores (e.g., a Sears or Bay department store) cannot be supported. The residents and employees, as a result, have to travel to the closest city/ town where more of the needed products and services are offered.

The above situation has been the reality for the Town of Arnprior’s shoppers for decades. The situation, however, has been made worse for the town’s economy since much more retail development has taken place in the last 10-15 years in the towns of Carleton Place, Renfrew and elsewhere.

The research for this study, especially its telephone survey, indicates two significant shopping patterns:

1. Arnprior residents do significant portions of their shopping in Ottawa, Carleton Place and Renfrew.

2. Some of Arnprior’s businesses attract shoppers from parts of Renfrew County, as well as a few from Lanark County and the West Carleton part of the City of Ottawa.

In the last 10 years our firm has carried out numerous retail studies in Arnprior, Carleton Place, Perth, Kanata and Nepean (now included in the amalgamated City of Ottawa). On the basis of our knowledge of these areas, past retail studies

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and the current study for Arnprior, we have defined the following trade areas for businesses in Arnprior:

1. The Primary Trade Area is def ined to be the Town of Arnprior, and M cNab/Braeside combined.

2. The Secondary Trade Area is def ined to consist of the Eastern Parts of Renf rew County, the Northern part of Lanark County, and the Western part of the Ci ty of Ottawa.

3. The Tertiary Trade Area would be other parts of Lanark County, West Carleton, western part of Renf rew County and elsewhere.

The Primary Trade Area or PTA is an area from which 50% or more of the total sales of the businesses in an area are captured/ generated. The Secondary Trade Area or STA is the area from which all or almost all of the total annual sales of businesses are captured/ generated. The Tertiary Trade Area or TTA is usually an area which provides up to 10% of the total annual sales of the businesses being studied. Based on this study’s research, the sales generated f rom the TTA are too low to be signi f icant. As a resul t, this study’s analysis is based on the PTA and STA of Arnprior’s businesses.

Trade Areas are not rigid, and cannot be said to be correct or wrong, but can be said to be too small or too large. Based on socio-demographic, economic and competitive changes, these areas change from time to time. A somewhat different PTA and STA would also be valid for the purposes of this study. What we have defined above, however, is reasonable. In any case, the retai l market for the Town of Arnprior is the main concern of this study, and therefore, we have addressed the socio-demographic and other characteristics of Arnprior in more detai l than the other areas mentioned in this report.

Trade Area delineations are often determined by face-to-face interview of shoppers, vehicle license plate surveys, and/ or judgement of analysts based on field research, competitive and other factors. For this study (and many others we have done), shopper interviews or license plate surveys where not authorized due to budget limitations, and thus we relied on our experience and judgement. There are two important factors to consider in this regard:

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1. Carleton Place and the western parts of the City of Ottawa have large numbers of retail and service businesses, more are under construction, planned or proposed. Many of Arnprior residents already shop at the stores in these areas, and this pattern may even increase further in the future. The area to the east of Arnprior is therefore where there is huge and growing supply of retai l faci l i ties.

2. The rest of Renfrew County to the west of Arnprior has many residents, but comparatively few retail and service businesses. These residents do some of their shopping at businesses in Arnprior, some at businesses in Carleton Place and Ottawa, in addition to the businesses to the west of Arnprior. The area to the west of Arnprior therefore, is where there are many residents but few retai l and service businesses. Arnprior is, therefore in an intervening market position regarding the shopping patterns of the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County. Arnprior’s ability to compete with the existing and growing businesses in Carleton Place and Ottawa is weak, and likely to become more so in future as more retail is developed in those places. The natural, logical, and hopeful trade area for Arnprior’s businesses is therefore the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County to the west of Arnprior. Shopping in Arnprior by residents from east of Arnprior is limited and likely to decline further. The Eastern Parts of Renf rew County are therefore, an ef fective Secondary Trade Area (STA), especial ly for the future of businesses in Arnprior based on i ts geography, retai l characteristics and our judgement. In other words, the existing number of customers from east of Arnprior will most likely decline further in the future, whereas the existing and potential number of customers from the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County will increase.3

3 It is also acknowledged that as development increases in Pembroke, Petawawa and Cobden, they may become more attractive for the residents of the western parts of Renfrew County to shop there rather than in A rnprior. Therefore, the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County as well as the Arnprior Area should be targeted by Arnprior businesses.

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B. Population

1. The total population of the Arnprior4

2. An average annual population growth of 1.0% is general ly considered to represent a heal thy/growing economy. Arnprior’s growth in the period 2006-2001 was thus more than twice this general economic indicator.

Area was 10,100 in 2011, reflecting an average annual growth of 205 or 2.3% since 2006 (Table 2.1). For the PTA, the 2011 population figure is 15,485.

3. Renfrew County’s average annual population growth from 2006 to 2011 was 757 or 0.8% from 97,545 to 101,330. The Eastern Parts of Renfrew County are a strong potential secondary trade area for Arnprior businesses. Its population is estimated to be approximately 18,900 in 2014.

4. In 2011, the median age of the Arnprior Area residents was 46.8 and that of Renfrew County was 43.9 years.

5. Proportionally speaking, there were fewer residents in the age groups up to 49, and more in the age groups 50 and older in Arnprior, than in Renfrew County. Those in the age group “ 65 & older,” in particular, made up 21.4% of Arnprior’s, and 18.2% of Renfrew County’s total population in 2011. The population of Renf rew County as a whole was younger than Arnprior’s population in 2011.

C. Mother Tongues

1. The mother tongue of 91.6% of Arnprior and 88.6% of Renfrew County residents was English in 2011 (and still is) (Table 2.2).

2. French was/ is the mother tongue of 3.7% of Arnprior, and 4.8% of Renfrew County residents.

3. There are more residents (proportionally) in Renfrew County than in Arnprior whose mother tongue is neither English nor French (4.2% and 2.9%,

4 There are slight differences for Arnprior’s population depending on whether the Census Population Centre or the Census Subdivision data are used. The differences for the purposes of this study, however, are not significant. In any case, since Arnprior is over-stored for either population figure, it is more appropriate to use the larger population figure which is what we have used in this report.

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respectively). In both areas, German, Polish and Dutch are dominant after English and French. Renfrew County as a whole, and more so the rest of this county, are ethnical ly more diverse than Arnprior, whi le both are predominantly Anglophones.

D. Households and Housing Units

1. The overall average household size in the Arnprior Area was 2.29 and in Renfrew County, 2.43 (Table 2.3).

2. The single and two-person households, which are the most rapidly growing sub-demographic group in many North American towns and cities, made up 68.8% of the total number of households in the Arnprior Area (i.e., 1 in 1.45 households), and 65.7% in Renfrew County (i.e., 1 in 1.52 households) in 2011.

3. In both Arnprior and Renfrew County, the existing housing units were predominantly ground-oriented in 2011 (97.7% and 99.7% respectively, Table 2.4).

4. Apartments made up 23.8% (or 1 in 4.2 units) in the Arnprior Area, and 11.5% (1 in 8.7 units) in Renfrew County in 2011.

5. In the period 2009-2013, an average of 89 new housing units were started in Arnprior (Table 2.5). The range of starts is as low as 43 units in 2009 to as high as 168 in 2013.

E. Labour Force and Employment

1. In 2011, a total of 3,970 of the Arnprior Area’s total population of 10,100 (i.e., 39.3%) were working within and outside Arnprior (Table 2.6).

2. The top five occupations of these working residents are:

• Sales & Services 990 or 24.9% • Business, Finance & Administration 620 or 15.6% • Trades, Transport & Related 610 or 15.4% • Education, Government & Social Services 435 or 10.9% • Natural & Applied Sciences 305 or 7.7%

Total 2,960 74.6%

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3. There was a total of 5,144 jobs in Arnprior in 2012 (Table 2.7).

4. The top five employment categories in 2012 were:

• Manufacturing 1,245 or 24.2% • Retail Trade 891 or 17.3% • Health Care & Social Services 725 or 14.1% • Accommodation & Food Services 493 or 9.6% • Construction 327 or 6.3% • Education 327 or 6.3%

Total 3,681 71.6%

5. Comparing the number of Arnprior’s working residents w i th the number of jobs in Arnprior indicates that at least 1,000 of the people who work in Arnprior l ive elsewhere.

F. Incomes

The household income distribution of the Arnprior Area’s households in 2011 is presented in Table 2.8. As indicated:

1. One in 4.4 households made less than $30,000.

2. Slightly more than one-third (33.7%) made between $30,000 and $79,999.

3. Over one-quarter (26.0% or 1 in 3.8 households) made over $80,000.

4. Those who made more than $100,000 made up 15.8% or 1 in 6.3 households.

5. The overal l average household income of the Arnprior Area’s residents was $66,287 and Renfrew County’s was $70,546 in 2011.

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Table 2.1 Population By Age Groups: 2011

Age Groups Arnprior Renfrew County No. % No. %

Under 19 2,105 20.8 22,225 21.9 20 – 29 1,075 10.6 12,485 12.3 30 – 39 1,055 10.4 11,200 11.0 40 – 49 1,360 13.5 14,130 13.9 50 – 64 2,350 23.3 22,865 22.6 65 – 74 965 9.6 9,710 9.6 75 & Older 1,190 11.8 8,715 8.6 Total 10,100 100.0 101,330 100.0 Median Age 46.8 years 43.9 years 65 & Older 2,155 21.4 18,425 18.2 Total 2006 Population 9,076 97,545 Average Annual Change: 2006 – 2011 Numeric 205 757 % 2.3 0.8

Notes: In al l relevant tables in this report, Renfrew County’s data include data for the Arnprior Area.

The 2011 population of the Primary Trade Area is 15,485.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the 2011 census data.

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Table 2.2 Mother Tongues of Residents: 2011

Tongues Arnprior Renfrew County No. % No. %

English 9,255 91.6 89,755 88.6 French 380 3.7 4,875 4.8 All Others 290 2.9 4,255 4.2 • German 60 0.59 1,090 1.07 • Polish 35 0.35 990 0.98 • Dutch 25 0.25 430 0.42 Total1 9,925 98.3 98,885 97.6 Multiple 75 0.74 920 0.91 Infants 100 0.99 1,525 1.50 Grand Total 10,100 100.0 101,33 100

1 Single responses

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the 2011 census data.

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Table 2.3 Number of Households By Size: 2011

Household Size Arnprior Renfrew County No. % No. %

One Person 1,450 32.9 11,285 27.0 Two Persons 1,575 35.8 16,140 38.6 Three Persons 665 15.1 6,285 15.1 Four Persons 455 10.3 5,275 12.6 Five Persons 195 4.4 1,990 4.8 Six or More Persons 60 1.4 785 1.9 Total1 4,400 100.0 41,760 100.0 Average Size 2.29 — 2.43 — One & Two Persons 3,025 68.8 27,425 65.7

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the 2011 census data.

Table 2.4 Housing By Type: 2011

Type Arnprior Renfrew County No. % No. %

Single Detached 2,635 59.9 32,660 78.2 Semi-Detached 365 8.3 1,780 4.3 Row House 235 5.3 1,560 3.7 Duplex 80 1.8 505 1.2 Apartments (up to 4 storeys) 925 21.0 4,665 11.2 Apartments (5 or more storeys) 125 2.8 125 0.3 Movable, etc. 35 0.8 465 1.1 Total 4,400 100.0 41,760 100.0 Ground Oriented 4,275 97.7 41,635 99.7

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the 2011 census data.

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Table 2.5 Housing Start Data

Year Arnprior Renfrew County

2013 168 N.A. 2012 73 114 2011 92 117 2010 71 99 2009 43 62 Total 447 392 Average Annual 89 98

Note: There are 601 units registered on vacant lots in Arnprior of which 189 are draft approved.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the CMHC data and meeting w ith Arnprior’s Planning Director, March 2014.

Table 2.6 Working Residents By Occupation: 2011 Occupation Arnprior

No. % Management 365 9.2 Business, Finance & Administration 620 15.6 Natural & Applied Sciences 305 7.7 Health Services 225 5.7 Education, Government & Social Services 435 10.9 Arts, Culture & Recreation 70 1.8 Sales & Services 990 24.9 Trades, Transport & Related 610 15.4 Natural Resources & Agricultural 15 0.4 Manufacturing & Utilities 225 5.7 Other 110 2.8 Total 3,970 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the 2011 census data.

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Table 2.7 Number of Jobs By Industry In Arnprior: 2012

Industry No. % of Total Primary1 19 0.4 Utilities 88 1.7 Construction 327 6.4 Manufacturing 1,245 24.2 Retail Trade 891 17.3 Transportation & Warehousing 108 2.1 FIRE2 178 3.5 Professional, Scientific & Technical 84 1.6 Administrative & Support 117 2.3 Education 327 6.3 Health Care & Social Services 725 14.1 Arts, Culture, Entertainment & Recreation 159 3.1 Accommodation & Food Services 493 9.6 Government (all levels) 162 3.1 Other Services & Unclassified 221 4.3 Total 5,144 100.0

1 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining. 2 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate.

The number of Arnprior’s working residents was 3,970 in 2011 (Table 2.6), whereas the number of jobs was 5,144 in 2012. Therefore, an estimated 1,000 or more of the employees in Arnprior live outside this Town.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on Town of Arnprior data.

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Table 2.8 Household Income Distribution: 2011 Income Class ($) Arnprior

No. % Under 30,000 1,010 22.9 30,000 – 49,999 710 16.1 50,000 – 79,999 775 17.6 80,000 – 99,999 450 10.2 100,000 – 124,999 290 6.6 125,000 – 149,999 155 3.5 150,000 & over 250 5.7 Non-reporting/Other 760 17.3 Total 4,400 100.0 Overall average $80,000 1,145 26.0 Average Income ($) 66,287 —

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the 2011 census data.

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III. TRADE AREA TELEPHONE SURVEY

A. Survey Instrument and Process

For this major task of the study, we first designed a survey instrument in draft, and jointly with the client finalized it (Appendix A). We next obtained the residential telephone numbers for the Town of Arnprior, the rest of Renfrew County, the Town of Carleton Place in Lanark County and western Ottawa. The telephone surveys were carried out during the following time period in May and June:

Monday-Friday: 5:00 pm – 9:00 pm, less 6:30 pm – 7:30 pm Saturday: 11:00 am – 6:00 pm Sunday: 12:00 noon – 8:00 pm

A week prior to the start of the telephone surveys, the Town of Arnprior informed the residents and encouraged them to participate through print and radio announcements. Since the population of Arnprior is about 10% of Renfrew County’s total population, we decided to conduct half the total surveys with Arnprior residents in order to have an in-depth understanding of their shopping patterns. In total we obtained 400 successful ly completed surveys, consisting of 200 wi th Arnprior residents, and 200 wi th residents of Renf rew County and Lanark County.5

B. Survey Findings

The detailed survey results are presented in Tables A.1 – A.12 in Appendix A. There are general as well as store-specific marketing information in these tables which we think would have practical benefits for Arnprior business owners and managers (e.g., sales and market shares of the Metro Supermarket from within, and outside the Town of Arnprior). The following are some of the key findings of the survey:

1. Table 3.1 shows the average age, income, likes and dislikes of each group of respondents.

5 Very few people from Carleton Place, and no one from western Ottawa indicated that they shopped at businesses in Arnprior

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2. Businesses which capture 50% or more of Arnprior residents’ total spending by category or name (Table A.11) are as follows (read 76.2% of their total spending at all Drug Stores, 74.5% of their total spending at all Canadian Tire stores, etc.):

• Drug Stores 76.2% of their total Drug Store • Canadian Tire & Hardware Stores 74.5% • Restaurants & Bars 66.7% • Gifts & Specialty Stores 50.3% • Supermarkets 50.3%

All other Arnprior businesses by category or name capture less than 50% of the total expenditures of Arnprior residents.

3. Businesses outside Arnprior which capture 50% or more of Arnprior residents’ total spending by category or name are (Table A.11):

• CostCo 100.0% • Walmart 100.0% • Furniture, electronics & appliances 79.0% • Clothing & Shoes 75.5 • Department Stores 67.1% • Specialty Foods 56.4%

4. Overal l , the existing businesses in Arnprior capture only 35.1% of Arnprior residents’ total expendi tures. The remaining 64.9% are spent at businesses located outside Arnprior (i .e., the leakage out of Arnprior is 64.9%).

5. There is also leakage of shopping dollars into Arnprior. The 200 respondents from outside Arnprior indicated that they spend more than 50% of their total spending at the following businesses in Arnprior (Table A.9):

• Drug Stores 68.0% • Restaurants & Bars 60.6% • Supermarkets 58.3%

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6. The top five new or additional businesses desired by each group of survey respondents are (Table A.12):

Desi red/Wanted By:

Arnprior Respondents (%) Other Respondents (%) Shoe store 16.8 Shoe store 15.8 More & better clothing stores 15.6 A Walmart 14.6 A Walmart 13.0 More & better clothing stores 11.8 Improve existing stores 8.0 A large Home Hardware 6.7 Specialty Stores 6.7 A large Department Store 6.7

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Table 3.1 Summary of Telephone Survey Findings

Findings (characteristics)

Arnprior Residents

Other Residents

All Respondents

Total No. of Respondents 200 200 400 Average Age (years) 51.9 52.1 52.0 Average Household Size 2.22 2.44 2.33 Average Income $70,240 $75,540 $72,980 Top Three Positive Attributes of Arnprior 1. Friendly service 1. Friendly service — 2. Neighbourhood 2. Neighbourhood — 3. Charming 3. Prices — Top Three Negative Attributes of Arnprior 1. Not enough variety 1. Not enough variety — 2. Unattractive

atmosphere 2. Unattractive atmosphere

—

3. Too many vacant stores

3. Too many vacant stores

—

Average No. of Social Media Used per Respondent

1.69 1.56 1.56

% Who Use Social Media 67.3 56.0 61.9 % Who Use Facebook 33.8 32.0 32.9 % Who Use Twitter 13.1 6.1 10.7 % Who Use LinkedIn 5.8 6.0 5.9

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

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IV. EXECUTIVE INTERVIEWS WITH BUSINESS OWNERS/MANAGERS

A. Methodology

In July and August 2014, we interviewed a total of 20 of Arnprior’s business owners or owner-managers.

In conjunction with the client, we first designed and finalized an interview guide (Appendix B). We then made appointments with the owners/ managers of various businesses in Arnprior, and interviewed them based on this guide on a confidential and face-to-face basis. Table 4.1 presents summary information regarding the interviewees. On a topic by topic basis, the findings of these interviews are as follows. It should, however, be noted that these interviews are part of the qualitative research for this study. As a result, while a suggestion or comment made by many is important, a comment or suggestion made by only one person can be as or more important and valuable.

B. Strength/Positive Attributes of Arnprior

A large number of responses were provided for this question as follows:

1. Cottages, parks, natural amenities 11 mentions

2. A good, likeable, supportive community 6 mentions

3. Little or no competition 5 mentions

4. Personal services/ relaxed 3 mentions

5. Good/ strong market 2 mentions

6. Loyal customers 2 mentions

7. Residential growth 2 mentions

8. Jobs 1 mention

9. Reasonable rent 1 mention

10. The hospital 1 mention

Arnprior’s natural attributes, a strong sense of communi ty and l i ttle or no competi tion for some of i ts businesses are thus the attributes most l iked by the business owners/managers interviewed.

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C. Negative Aspects/Challenges for Businesses in Arnprior

The business community is generally well aware of the challenges it faces in Arnprior. The following comments were made in this regard by the business owners/ managers interviewed:

1. Shopping at Renfrew, Carleton Place, Walmarts and Ottawa 16 mentions

2. Lack of enough variety of businesses 11 mentions

3. Too many vacancies 8 mentions

4. Inconsistent store hours 6 mentions

5. Absentee or non-caring landlords 4 mentions

6. Lack of customer loyalty 4 mentions

7. Low income of many families 3 mentions

8. Downtown of often closed or “ dead” 3 mentions

9. Arnprior is a bedroom community 3 mentions

10. The BIA discouraged(s)6

11. Secretive/ cliquish town council 2 mentions

business growth 2 mentions

12. High rents 2 mentions

13. Internet shopping 2 mentions

The most signi f icant problems for the business communi ty in Arnprior are thus:

• Residents’ shopping at outside businesses/outside Arnprior

• Lack of enough variety of businesses in Arnprior

• Too many vacant stores

• Inconsistent store hours

• Absentee or non-caring landlords

D. Expectations Regarding the Town of Arnprior

When asked what, in their opinion, the Town of Arnprior should do to further improve the business environment, the following suggestions were made:

6 A t least 6 of the interviewees thought the BIA stil l exists.

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1. Promote Arnprior’s natural amenities and tourism 10 mentions

2. Promote festivals, events, tourist attraction 7 mentions

3. Be more flexible/ less rigid 5 mentions

4. Attract more businesses (for the vacant stores, especially) 5 mentions

5. A llow box stores, especially a Walmart store 4 mentions

6. Help improve store facades/ renovations 4 mentions

7. Promote shopping locally 3 mentions

8. Promote customer-friendly services 3 mentions

9. A lready doing a good job: continue 3 mentions

From the perspective of the business communi ty, therefore, the Town of Arnprior should primari ly concentrate on:

• Promoting Arnprior’s natural ameni ties to attract tourists.

• Create and/or promote more festivals, events, activi ties to both stimulate spending by residents and increase tourism.

• Help to attract more businesses to Arnprior, especial ly for the vacant stores.

E. BIA-Related Findings

About a third of the 20 respondents thought the BIA still exists. Four of them had negative impressions of the BIA: they explained that the BIA influenced the Council to not allow a Walmart store in Arnprior. Another negative comment related to the BIA was being against retail development anywhere other than in downtown.

Out of the remaining 13 residents, 5 indicated that they would like a new, strong, and motivated BIA to be formed. The remaining 8 had no knowledge of or suggestions on any aspect of any BIA.

F. Expectations Regarding Landlords

A pleasant majority of the respondents indicated that they were happy enough with their landlords.

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The few negative comments or suggestions about landlords are:

1. Fill up the vacant stores 4 mentions

2. Help with cleaning and façade renovations 3 mentions

3. Rents are too high 3 mentions

G. Sales From Outside Arnprior

We asked the respondents to indicate the percentage of their total sales which are generated from outside Arnprior on an average annual basis. Their responses are as follows:

• Up to 5% 0

• 6 to 10% 3

• 11 to 15% 2

• 16 to 20% 5

• 21 to 25% 3

• 26 to 30% 4

• 31 to 50% 3

Thus, 10 or hal f of the businesses generate 11% to 25%, and 7 or 35% generate one-quarter to hal f of thei r total sales f rom customers who l ive outside Arnprior. These percentages are high based on our experience, and indicate that many Arnprior businesses are still strong enough to attract shoppers from outside. As well, these percentages point to the potential to further increase the expendi tures of these shoppers i f /once most of this study’s recommendations have been implemented.

H. Changes in Sales Volumes

The respondents indicated the following changes in their total sales in the last two years:

1. Sales increased 10 mentions

2. Sales decreased 7 mentions

3. Sales stayed the same 3 mentions

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Since there has been inflation in the last two years, the 3 businesses whose sales stayed the same have actually experienced sales losses. I t is thus concluded that hal f of the businesses whose owners/managers were interviewed have had increasing, and hal f decl ining sales volumes.

I. Promotional & Marketing Activities

The owners/ managers interviewed use the following promotional and marketing on a regular basis:

1. Flyers 8 mentions

2. Radio 7 mentions

3. Most of above by headquarters 7 mentions

4. Television 5 mentions

5. Internet 4 mentions

6. Social media 3 mentions

7. Gifts & Donations 2 mentions

8. Print media 2 mentions

9. Inside store events 1 mention

10. Community events 1 mention

11. None 1 mention

Flyers, radio and television ads are most of ten used as a means of promotion, in addi tion to promotion by the chain business headquarters.

J. Awareness of New Businesses Coming to Arnprior

One respondent mentioned Denny’s, two an A&W, another a dollar store, and one a Swiss Chalet as possible/ rumoured businesses coming to Arnprior. The other 15 were not aware of any.

K. Labour Supply

A total of 3 of the respondents indicated that finding and keeping good employees is a serious problem for their businesses. Four others indicated that

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labour supply is at times difficult, but is not a major problem. The remaining 13 indicated that they were quite pleased with the supply and quality of employees.

L. Desired New or Additional Businesses

In response to what businesses are lacking in Arnprior which they would like to be attracted, the following were suggested:

1. A Walmart store 12 mentions

2. A shoe store 11 mentions

3. Better restaurants 10 mentions

4. Clothing stores 9 mentions

5. More variety of stores 8 mentions

6. Complete the highway expansion sooner 6 mentions

7. Children’s stores 5 mentions

8. Promote tourism, waterfront & tourist attractions 4 mentions

9. A dollar store 3 mentions

10. More family restaurants 3 mentions

11. Another supermarket 3 mentions

12. Best Buy or Future Shop 2 mentions

13. A Home Depot 2 mentions

14. Factory outlet stores 1 mention

15. A department store 1 mention

16. A Boston Pizza 1 mention

17. A Rogers store 1 mention

18. An A&W store 1 mention

19. A Staples store 1 mention

20. A new sporting goods store 1 mention

21. A photography store 1 mention

22. A games store 1 mention

23. More manufacturing 1 mention

24. A book store 1 mention

25. A Value Village store 1 mention

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Thus, f rom the viewpoint of the business owners/managers interviewed, the most strongly needed businesses in Arnprior are:

• A Walmart store 12 mentions

• A shoe store 11 mentions

• Better restaurants 10 mentions

• M ore clothing stores 9 mentions

• M ore variety of stores 8 mentions

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Table 4.1 Characteristics of the Businesses and Their Owners/Managers Interviewed

Type of Business Gender of Interviewee

Employees No. of Years No. of Businesses Outside of Arnprior

FT PT In Business In Arnprior

1. Specialty Food Female 3 3 30+ 24 100+ 2. Supermarket Male 25 115 50+ 40 100+ 3. Supermarket Male 18 25 50+ 10 100+ 4. Pet Store Female 1 2 13 1 1 5. Fast Food Female 30 35 50+ 24 100+ 6. Fast Food Female 3 15 50+ 50+ 100+ 7. Appliance/Furniture Male 2 2 50+ 15 100+ 8. Hardware Male 8 12 50+ 14 100+ 9. Hardware Female 30 8 20+ 15 100+

10. Department Store Male 4 10 50+ 8 50+ 11. Department Store Male 20 12 50+ 6 100+ 12. Electronics Male 1 4 20+ 4 100+ 13. Automotive Male 26 0 40+ 40+ 100+ 14. Drug Store Female 16 16 50+ 8 100+ 15. Clothing Female 1 — 8 8 0 16. Beer Store Male 5 6 50+ 50+ 100+ 17. Restaurant Female 4 6 14 14 0 18. Specialty Food Male 5 7 14 7 0 19. Real Estate Male 2 6 15 15 3 20. Clothing Male 1 — 45 12 0

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V. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS

This section presents a number of major trends and changes in shopping habits, patterns, and new retail facilities:

A. Retail Stores

A number of new types of shopping facil ities, most of which have their origins in the U.S., were introduced into the Canadian market in the late 1990s. The major new shopping facilities in this regard are:

1. Box Stores: Costco, Walmart, and The Home Depot fall into this category. These are often referred to as big-box stores, since they are typically larger than 100,000 sq. ft. There are also medium-sized box stores, such as Winner’s (clothing), Staples (office products), and Globo shoes, which are typically between 20,000 to 50,000 sq. ft.;

2. Large Format Stores such as Canadian Tire and the Great Canadian Super Stores. These are mostly new versions of the same stores, but significantly larger (often between 70,000 to 150,000 sq. ft.), offering a much wider assortment of products and services;

3. Dol lar Stores which are typically between 1,000 to 5,000 sq. ft., specializing in mostly low-cost imports priced at up to $5.00 per item (e.g., Dollarama, A Buck or Two, The Dollar Store);

4. Power Centres are typically between 200,000 to 1,000,000 sq. ft., consist of a variety of box and traditional stores in open malls, with each store having its own pad and parking in front to the extent possible;

5. Special ty Stores such as Starbucks (coffee shop), Mountain Equipment Coop (outdoors store), Lululemon (Yoga wear), Sassy Beads (jewellery, craft), and Brio (shoes, clothing, accessories);

6. De-M al l ing Another recent trend in the retail industry is the conversion of old and small enclosed shopping malls into open, uncovered shopping centres (referred to as de-malling). Malls which are over 20 years old and up to about 300,000 sq. ft. in size are usually targets for being de-malled. A de-malled shopping centre is less costly to operate since there are no indoor

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areas to be heated, cooled, cleaned or supervised. As well, the corridors and other public spaces are converted to leasable floor space.

7. Store Enlargements Another significant trend in the retail industry is the enlargement of existing stores at the same or a new location. Large stores are in a much better position than small and medium-sized stores to offer one-stop-shopping opportunities. Many supermarkets, hardware, furniture, electronics, department, and home improvement stores have in recent years expanded their size in the same or a new location within the National Capital Region. In some other cases, new stores from the same chain are built much larger.

8. Walmart Supercentres In the early 2000s, the Walmart chain stores finally won the right to offer food products at their stores. Called Supercentres, these new Walmart stores have the equivalent of a 50,000 sq. ft. supermarket within them, including produce, fresh meat, deli, dairy, as well as general merchandise (i.e., canned and boxed food products). The food section is usually on one side of these huge stores, and clothing, furniture, and other non-food products on the other side.

At these stores, the cost of food and other products are generally lower, but more importantly, perceived to be lower due to effective advertising, than at competitive stores.

9. Recent Entries Into the Ottawa M arket In September 2013, several (American) Target stores were opened in Ottawa in previously Zellers stores, and more are planned. As well, an H&M store was also opened in Bayshore Shopping Centre in October 2013.

In February 2012, a Marshall’s store was opened in the Train Yards Shopping Centre. In November 2011, the new and expanded IKEA store at approximately 410,000 sq. ft. was opened in Pinecrest Centre. In early 2011, a Forever 21 store was opened at the Rideau Centre.

A Whole Foods Supermarket has been proposed at Lansdowne Park as part of its major redevelopment plan. Nordstrom, Topman, Simons and a few other American and European stores are also coming to the Ottawa area.

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In addition to these new facilities, new methods of conducting business have been created. Purchasing through the Internet is one example. Twinning is another example which makes it possible for two businesses to complement each other, while saving on insurance, utilities, taxes, staff, and other costs. Examples in this regard include Chapter’s book stores and Starbucks, Walmart and McDonald’s restaurants, The Home Depot and Harvey’s restaurants. Some of these stores and trends can be expected to come to Arnprior as wel l in the coming years.

B. Reasons For Success of the New Store Types

There are many reasons for the introduction and successful operation of these new stores, as well as the new merchandising formats. Chief among these are:

1. Population growth, affluence, and especially diversity, create demand for new products, services, and methods of buying and selling.

2. Many retail markets in Canada including in Ottawa are considered to be still offering a limited variety of shopping facilities w ith primarily average quality products at above average prices. Choices at discount/ value, as well as at upscale/ high-quality ends of the shopping spectrum in particular, are limited.

3. Power centres and stand-alone box stores have lower operating costs (e.g., little or no common-area charges compared to enclosed malls), provide ample parking situated very close to their entrances, offer one-stop-shopping opportunities, their prices are and/ or are perceived to be lower than conventional stores, and they are very successful at selling large quantities of products.

4. For a wide variety of economic, demographic, and lifestyle reasons, many people seem to prefer shopping at these large, new-format and specialty stores.

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C. Present Shopping Patterns and Habits

Based on knowledge, experience, observations, and hundreds of consumer research surveys, we believe that shopping patterns and habits are solidifying, as follows:

1. Power centres, big-box and other discount-oriented shopping facilities are here to stay. Their main advantages are real and/ or perceived value, choice, and large quantities. Shoppers tend to go to these stores about once a month, and for the specific and pre-determined purpose of actual shopping (for household and/ or office products), rather than browsing, window shopping, socializing or just passing time. Typically, they prepare a list of what they want to buy ahead of time, follow it through, buy and bring home large quantities of products.

This type of shopping is rather arduous, especial ly for older people, those who do not have or wish to spend lots of time for shopping, and those who are af f luent enough for whom discount/value is not that important. The amount of time, planning, and the energy required are the main reasons why shopping at these facilities is generally infrequent (although there are customers from all socio-economic classes who only or mostly shop at these stores).

2. Shopping at regional and communi ty shopping centres, and especial ly in downtown and on other pedestrian-f riendly streets such as Elgin Street in Arnprior, i s of ten for fashion, special ty products and services, meeting, dining, social izing, entertainment and cul tural activi ties. There is frequently comparison-shopping, browsing, and cross-shopping at these facilities, especially during holidays and for special occasions (birthdays, anniversaries, etc.). Trips to these facilities do not necessarily always result in purchases due to the entertainment/ socializing/ dining factors, and also for purposes of comparison shopping. Thus, the fun and mul ti -purpose functions of these trips, combined wi th the far more diverse, attractive, and comfortable atmospheres of these faci l i ties, attract shoppers there more f requently than power centres and big-box stores do.

3. Shopping at highway commercial facilities is also destination oriented and closer in function to shopping at power centres and big-box stores, than to

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shopping at regional and community shopping centres, or on main streets. Furniture, electronics, appliances, automotive, box stores, restaurants, and other services often dominate highway commercial strips. Shoppers typically go to these establishments for specific products and/ or services, based on pre-determined shopping plan. While there may be comparison shopping, there is usually no window-shopping, socializing, browsing, or cross-shopping. Other than for restaurants, banks, gasoline, and other services, shopping at highway commercial stores is infrequent (furniture, electronics, appliances, and major auto repairs are normally needed less than once a year by most households).

4. The retail industry is dynamic and rapidly evolving. Shoppers demand choice, variety, convenience, value, and fun. In a healthy market, there is a balance between the traditional main street retail stores, suburban shopping centres, and the new and emerging retail facilities as described above.

5. In the competi tive envi ronment of today, maintaining market share, and especial ly increasing i t, is a major chal lenge for al l shopping faci l i ties and districts, requi ring new think ing and approaches to merchandising and customer relationship. Targeted use of social media, better understanding of the retai l market trends, more awareness of competi tion f rom shopping centres and districts, and better recogni tion of the needs, preferences, and desi res of the Trade Area residents are among the key elements of new think ing and approaches, which have to be considered for Arnprior’s retai l market.

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VI. EXISTING RETAIL INVENTORY

A. Total Space

Based on extensive field research, we have identified the names, types, approximate sizes, and chain/ independent status of all retail and service businesses in the Town of Arnprior. The full list of the businesses is provided in Appendix C, and a summary of it in Table 6.1. As noted:

1. There were 183 retail and service businesses in the Town of Arnprior in the Spring of 2014.

2. A ltogether, they occupy 644,400 sq. ft. of floor space, consisting of:

a. A total of 98 businesses with 196,200 sq. ft. in Arnprior Downtown, of which 24,200 sq. ft. or 12.3% were vacant.

b. A total of 53 businesses with 272,200 sq. ft. at the Daniel-Division quadrant, of which 31,000 sq. ft. or 11.2% were vacant.

c. A total of 32 businesses with 171,000 sq. ft. of floor space elsewhere in Arnprior, of which 5,500 sq. ft. or 3.2% were vacant.

3. The overal l total vacant f loor space in Arnprior in the Spring of 2014 was 60,700 sq. f t. or 9.4%.

4. By major category, the distribution of the existing space is as follows (rounded):

a- FCTM 16 businesses 115,000 sq. ft.

b- Fashion 13 26,900

c- Home Improvement 15 152,500

d- General Merchandise 2 21,000

e- Automotive 12 63,300

f- Department Store 1 30,000

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g- Eating-drinking 31 64,900

h- Beauty Salons/ Spas 20 28,200

i- Banks/ Financials 9 21,800

B. Analysis and Commentaries

1. In a balanced retail market, the industry standard vacancy rate is 4% to 8% (approximately, but less than 10% in any case). Arnprior’s vacancy rates are mostly high and above the industry standards.

2. A healthy/ balanced retail market should consist of about 60% retail (i.e., goods and product selling) businesses, and 40% service businesses (e.g., restaurants). In Arnprior, the existing businesses fall into the following:

a. Retail Stores: 69 with 411,500 sq. ft. or 63.9% b. Service Businesses: 81 with 172,200 sq. ft. or 26.7% c. Vacant Stores: 33 with 60,700 sq. ft. or 9.4%

3. A strong downtown retail market is very important to the overall retail market, economy, and especially quality-of-life in any area. Vacancy rates in downtowns should not be (much) higher than in the suburban areas. In Arnprior, however, both are too high at 12.3% and 11.2% respectively.

4. Strong, attractive, modern, specialty, and eclectic businesses should abound in downtowns in order to compete with suburban shopping facilities. In Arnprior, however, more of such businesses are needed. In this respect, the Shoppers Drug M art and the Giant Tiger stores, both of which are only a few years old, are very posi tive developments for downtown Arnprior.

5. Many of the businesses in Arnprior are in dated buildings, look tired, and are generally not inviting. Renovations, facelifts, better merchandising and more dynamism are needed at most of the existing businesses in Arnprior.

6. There are, as well, a number of needed businesses which do not exist in Arnprior.

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Arnprior’s retai l market, however, has posi tive features as wel l . The M etro, Canadian Ti re, Giant Tiger, Shoppers Drug M art, TSC Hardware, and No Fri l ls in particular attract customers f rom outside Arnprior.

7. For the approximately 11,000 residents of the Arnprior Area, the existing floor space of 644,400 sq. ft. is far too high. At this total, the overall average per capita space is 64 sq. ft., whereas the industry standard is between 30 and 40 sq. ft. This is another indication of the historical attraction of Arnprior’s retail market for the residents of the rest of Renfrew County, Lanark County, and elsewhere.

8. If we use the population of the PTA, the per capita space would be 37 sq. ft. which is within the industry range.

9. Arnprior’s retai l market is thus faced wi th several di lemmas as fol lows:

a. Lack of certain needed stores, such as Walmart, and a ful l -l ine department store.

b. The physical condi tions, atmosphere, and appeal of many of the existing stores are dated, unattractive, and not up to the standards of today’s modern shoppers.

c. Due to competi tion f rom the towns of Renf rew, Carleton Place and western parts of the Ci ty of Ottawa, Arnprior has lost some of i ts historical attraction to the residents wi thin up to one hour driving distance. As a resul t, the f loor space of the existing retai l and service businesses is too high for i ts own residents.

10. The chal lenge to address these di lemmas is twofold:

a. M aking the necessary changes to reduce the shopping of Arnprior residents at shopping faci l i ties outside Arnprior.

b. Undertak ing promotional ini tiatives, in addi tion to the above, to attract more shoppers f rom outside Arnprior, and to increase the amounts they spend.

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C. Distribution of Existing Floor Space

As noted below, the largest amount of floor space (i.e., 172,000 sq. ft. or 30.4% of the total of 644,400 sq.ft.), as well as the largest amount of vacant space (24,200 sq. ft. or 39.9% of the total of 60,700 sq.ft.) are in downtown Arnprior, followed by Arnprior Shopping Centre which is an enclosed mall at 152,200 sq. ft., including 24,000 sq. ft. or 39.5% of the total vacant space.

Area Floor Space (sq. f t.)

Vacant (sq. f t.)

Total (sq. f t.)

% of Grand Total

Downtown 172,000 24,200 196,200 30.4 Winner’s Circle 33,000 7,000 40,000 6.2 Arnprior Shopping Centre 128,200 24,000 152,200 23.6 A ll Others 250,500 5,500 256,000 39.7 Grand Total 583,700 60,700 644,400 100.0

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Table 6.1 Summary of Existing Floor Space: Arnprior

Area No. of Businesses

Area (sq. ft.)

Vacant Part ( sq. ft.)

Vacancy Rate (%)

A. Downtown John Street 45 79,600 11,200 14.1 Elgin Street 37 91,200 11,500 12.6 Madawaska 16 25,400 1.500 5.9 Total Downtown 98 196,200 24,200 12.3

B. Daniel-Division Quadrants Arnprior Shopping Centre (Enclosed Mall)

28 152,200 24,000 15.8

Winner’s Circle 9 40,000 7,000 17.5 Other 16 85,000 0 0 Total: Daniel-Division Node 53 277,200 31,000 11.2

C. Elsewhere In Arnprior 32 171,000 5,500 3.2

Grand Total 183 644,400 60,700 9.4

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on field research, April, 2014.

Table 6.2 General Distribution of Businesses In Arnprior

Area Retail Stores Service Businesses Vacant Stores No. sq. ft. No. sq. ft. No. sq. ft.

Downtown 37 93,500 44 78,500 17 24,200 Winner’s Circle 3 26,000 3 7,000 3 7,000 Arnprior Shopping Centre 12 119,200 6 9,000 10 24,000 Other Daniel-Division 7 61,300 9 23,200 0 0 Madawaska (east of river) 7 100,000 10 15,900 3 5,500 All Others 3 11,500 9 38,600 — — Total 69 411,500 81 172,200 33 60,700 % of Grand Total 37.7 63.9 44.8 26.7 18.0 9.4

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on field research, April, 2014.

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VII. RETAIL DEMAND AND GAP ANALYSIS

Spending at retail and service businesses depends on numerous socio-demographic, lifestyle trends and locational factors. Based on hundreds of retail market studies by our firm and other research organizations, income is the most influential factor. Often, the higher their income, the more people shop, spend, and thus support the continuation and/ or expansion of businesses.

The estimation of demand for supportable floor space is highly analytical and therefore numerically oriented. The detailed results of the analytical part of the demand estimation are presented in Tables 7.1-7.9 and Appendix A, and described below.

A. Expenditures

Statistics Canada is the primary source for expenditure data at retail and service stores across Canada. For our purposes in this Study’s Trade Area, the data is estimated based on income comparisons.

The overall average per capita income in 2011 of Arnprior residents was $28,946 and that of the Secondary Trade Area (STA) residents was $29,031. In other words, the average per capita income of the Trade Area residents was lower than Ontario’s which was $33,117 in 2011. Incomes in both areas are higher now.

In Table 7.1, we have provided estimates of per capita expenditures by the residents of the PTA and STA combined7

7 The overall average per capita incomes of the PTA and STA are different. However, for retail spending, they are close enough that different estimates are not required (e.g., income differences of up to 15% do not necessarily indicate expenditure differences of up to 15% based on our experience).

for a number of trade groups which are standard in the retail industry. As noted, we estimate the overal l average per capi ta spending of the TA residents to be $16,701 in 2014, and increase to $18,255 in 2024 (Table 7.2). Of course, due to mortgages, family size and other factors, some individuals and families spend less, and others more than these averages, depending on their disposable incomes.

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B. Total Supportable Floor Space

As of early 2014, there was a total of 644,400 sq. ft. of retail and service floor space in Arnprior of which 60,700 or 9.4% was vacant. The total spending potential of the Trade Area residents has been estimated in Tables 7.2 and 7.5 as a basis of estimating how much floor space in total can be supported in Arnprior. Accordingly, the residents of the PTA are estimated to spend $273.8 million (Table 7.4), and those of the County, $1.558 bi l l ion (Table 7.5), at all retail and service businesses inside as well as outside these areas in 2014 ($242.8 million and $1.838 bi l l ion respectively in 2024).

The share of the STA from the above is $306.2 million in 2014 and $374.3 million in 2024 (Table 7.5)

Based on interviews with hundreds of business owners, including the 20 interviews carried out in Arnprior, we have actual and reasonable estimates of sales by store types. For example, the overall annual average sale per sq. ft. at supermarkets is often between $500 and $700. On the basis of estimated sales per sq. ft. per year, we have identified the total amount of supportable floor space by the spending of the Trade Area residents. As shown in Tables 7.6 and 7.7 (their second pages), we estimate that Arnprior residents are currently (2014) supporting 299,400 to 431,900 sq. ft. of retail and service floor space within as well as outside of Arnprior (2.612 to 3.765 million sq. ft. respectively by the residents of the rest of the County, Table 7.7).

The spending of the PTA residents is supporting a minimum of 459,200 sq. f t. of f loor space in 2014, and estimated to support 629,300 sq. f t. by 2024 (Table 7.6).

The residents of the STA are estimated to be supporting 529,200 sq. f t. in 2014, and 635,500 sq. f t. by 2024 (Table 7.7).

While these figures seem to be very large, it should be noted that they translate into an overall average per capita floor space of 28 to 44 sq. ft. In view of the industry standard of 30 to 40 sq. ft. of floor space per capita, the lower estimated supportable spaces in Tables 7.6 and 7.7 are quite conservative.

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C. Minimum Additional Supportable Floor Space

Tables 7.8 and 7.9 are based on the smaller total supportable floor space figures identified in Tables 7.6 and 7.7. They identify the minimum amounts of total floor space which could be supported by the spending of the Trade Area residents. As noted, by the year 2024, the Arnprior residents’ need for floor space will increase by 172,100 sq. ft. As demonstrated in Table 7.8:

1. The spending of Arnprior residents can potential ly support a 108,900 sq. f t. increase in f loor space, wi thin as wel l as outside this area by 2024. The corresponding f igure for the PTA is an increase of 172,100 sq. f t. (Table 7.8).

2. The STA residents’ spending is estimated to support an increase of 108,500 by 2024 (Table 7.9).

3. There are al ready customers f rom outside the PTA who shop at many of the existing businesses in Arnprior. Thei r spending, and thus the requi rements for f loor space, i s in addi tion to the above.

4. The above figures are conservative as they are based on an average per capita space of 28 to 31 sq. ft., whereas the industry standard is between 30 and 40 sq. ft.

D. Analysis

It is important to note that the figures in Tables 7.6 and 7.9 are based on conservative estimates in order to ensure market viability. Furthermore, in order for the Arnprior businesses to capture 100% of the PTA residents’ total spending, di f ferent and better stores, and not necessari ly more stores are needed. This is due to the fact that there is at present, 644,400 sq. ft. of all types of businesses in Arnprior, whereas even if Arnprior residents spent 100% of their shopping dollars at businesses within Arnprior, they could support only up to a total of 431,900 sq. ft. of this space under optimistic assumptions. The Town of Arnprior, is therefore, al ready over-stored for i ts own residents, and to a large extent, the existing businesses have been relying on shoppers f rom outside to survive, especial ly f rom Braeside.

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Since many of the new, modern, and attractive stores have located in the Towns of Renfrew, Carleton Place, the City of Ottawa and elsewhere, Arnprior has been losing sales and market shares. The inevitable consequences of these losses have been the deterioration of the facades, limited product availability, poor atmosphere, and high vacancies in different parts of Arnprior.

The rest of Renfrew County, however, is large and the spending of its residents is estimated at $1.558 bil lion (Table 7.5) at businesses within as well as outside of Renfrew County. The estimated growth in the total spending of Arnprior residents, by contrast, is only $64.1 million from $178.7 million in 2014, to $242.8 million in 2024 (i.e., $6.4 million or 3.56% annually, Table 7.4). In the rest of Renfrew County, however, the residents’ total spending is estimated to increase by $280.1 million from $1.558 billion in 2014, to $1.838 billion in 2024 (i.e., an average of $28.0 million or 1.8% annually, Table 7.5). Some of this increase will be in small towns and villages in the Eastern Parts of Renfrew County, and the existing and future businesses in Arnprior can potentially capture significant parts of these expenditures.

Three of the major chal lenges for the Arnprior businesses are thus as fol lows:

1. To reduce the spending of Arnprior residents at businesses outside.

2. To attract more shoppers f rom the Eastern Parts of Renf rew County, f rom Lanark County and elsewhere.

3. To increase cross shopping8

wi thin Arnprior by the Arnprior residents, as wel l as by shoppers f rom outside Arnprior.

8 Shopping and/ or visiting more than one business in a single trip is often referred to as “ cross-shopping.”

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Table 7.1 Estimated Trade Area Per Capita Expenditures: 2014 Trade Groups Spending ($)

A Retail Products Supermarkets 2,004 Convenience Stores 180 All Other Food Stores 173 Drugs and Patent Medicine Stores 1,063 Beer, Wine, Liquor 529 Shoes, Accessory & Jewellery 208 Clothing Stores 618 Electronics & Appliance Stores 497 Home Furnishing Stores 176 Furniture Stores 278 Building Material, Hardware & Garden Stores 721 Sporting Goods, Hobby & Music 310 New Car Dealers 2,140 Used & Recreational Vehicles 357 Automotive Parts 133 Gasoline & Service Stations 1,560 General Merchandise 809 Department Stores 845 Other Retail Stores 319 Subtotal: Products 12,923

B Retail Services1 Restaurants, bars, other eateries 1,165 Personal Care 443 Education 616 Sports & Recreation 1,554 Subtotal: Services 3,778

Grand Total: All Stores2 16,701

Notes 1 Estimated by Shore-Tanner & Associates based on historical data. 2 Sum of Retail Products and Retail Services

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on Statistics Canada’s Annual Retail Survey (CANSIM Table 080-0023).

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Table 7.2 Per Capita Expenditure Forecasts: Trade Area

Major Trade Group Dollars 2014 2016 2017 2019 2024

Total Population 104,000 105,000 107,000 109,000 114,000 A. Retail Products Food & Convenience Type 1 Merchandise (FCTM) 3,949 4,028 4,056 4,115 4,400 Fashion2 816 824 830 842 895 Home Improvement3 1,672 1,690 1,705 1,726 1,830 General Merchandise and Dept. Stores 1,654 1,675 1,688 1,720 1,825 Automotive Stores4 4,190 4,265 4,300 4,385 4,650 Other Retail 642 655 660 740 785 Subtotal A 12,923 13,137 13,239 13,528 14,385

B. Retail Services Restaurants, bars, other Eateries 1,165 1,165 1,170 1,180 1,200 Personal Services 443 445 445 450 470 Other Services 2,170 2,170 2,175 2,180 2,200 Subtotal B 3,778 3,780 3,790 3,810 3,870

Grand Total5 16,701 16,917 17,029 17,338 18,255

Notes: 1 Supermarkets, Convenience Stores, A ll Other Food Stores, Drug Stores and Beer, Wine &

Liquor Stores. 2 Shoes, Accessory, Jewellery, Clothing Stores (all kinds). 3 Electronics, Appliances, Furniture, Home Furnishings. 4 New and used vehicle, parts, repairs and gasoline. 5 For 2014-2024, expenditures have been increased by 0.25% to 1.5% per year. 6 A ll figures are in the constant value of the Canadian dollar in 2013 (i.e., inflation not

included).

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

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Table 7.3 Estimated Population Growth

Year Arnprior Primary Trade

Area Total

Renfrew County STA Or Eastern Renfrew County

2011 (actual) 10,100 15,485 101,330 18,300 2014 10,700 16,400 104,000 18,900 2016 11,200 17,200 105,000 19,100 2017 11,500 17,600 107,000 19,400 2019 12,000 18,400 109,000 19,700 2024 13,300 20,300 114,000 20,500 Average Annual Increase, 2014 – 2024 Numeric 260 390 1,000 160 % 2.4 2.4 1.0 0.8

Note: The population of Eastern Renfrew County was estimated as follows:

Population of the entire county= 101,330 in 2011. One-third of it for the eastern parts

= 33,777 which of course includes the PTA. Subtracting the 15,485 population

of the PTA results in 18,300 for the Eastern Renfrew County for 2011.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on census data and information from the Town of Arnprior.

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Table 7.4 Estimated Total Expenditure Potential of Arnprior

Major Trade Group Spending Potential ($M) 2014 2016 2017 2019 2024

Total Population 10,700 11,200 11,500 12,000 13,300 A. Retail Products Food & Convenience Type 1 Merchandise (FCTM) 42.3 45.1 46.6 49.4 58.5 Fashion2 8.7 9.2 9.4 10.1 11.9 Home Improvement3 17.9 18.9 19.6 20.7 24.3 General Merchandise and Dept. Stores 17.7 18.8 19.4 20.6 24.3 Automotive Stores4 44.8 47.8 49.4 52.6 61.8 Other Retail 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.9 10.4 Subtotal A 138.3 147.1 152.2 162.3 191.3

B. Retail Services Restaurants, bars, other Eateries 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.2 16.0 Personal Services 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.4 6.2 Other Services 23.2 24.3 25.0 26.2 29.3 Subtotal B 40.4 42.3 43.6 45.7 51.5

Grand Total5

178.7 189.5 195.8 208.1 242.8

Expendi tures of PTA Residents 273.8 291.0 299.7 319.0 370.6

NOTES: 1 Supermarkets, Convenience Stores, A ll Other Food Stores, Drug Stores and Beer, Wine &

Liquor Stores. 2 Shoes, Accessory, Jewellery, Clothing Stores (all kinds). 3 Electronics, Appliances, Furniture, Home Furnishings. 4 New and used vehicle, parts, repairs and gasoline. 5 For 2014-2024, expenditures have been increased by 0.25% to 1.5% per year. 6 A ll figures are in the constant value of the Canadian dollar in 2013 (i.e., inflation not

included).

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

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Table 7.5 Estimated Total Expenditure Potential of Residents of the Rest of Renfrew County

Major Trade Group Spending Potential ($M) 2014 2016 2017 2019 2024

Total Population 93,300 93,800 95,500 97,000 100,700 A. Retail Products Food & Convenience Type 1 Merchandise (FCTM) 368.4 377.8 387.3 399.1 443.1 Fashion2 76.1 77.3 79.3 81.7 90.1 Home Improvement3 156.0 158.5 162.8 167.4 184.3 General Merchandise and Dept. Stores 154.3 157.1 161.2 166.8 183.8 Automotive Stores4 390.9 400.1 410.6 425.3 468.2 Other Retail 59.9 61.4 63.0 71.8 79.0 Subtotal A 1,205.7 1,232.3 1,264.3 1,312.2 1,448.6

B. Retail Services Restaurants, bars, other Eateries 108.7 109.3 111.7 114.5 120.8 Personal Services 41.3 41.7 42.5 43.6 47.3 Other Services 202.5 203.5 207.7 211.5 221.5 Subtotal B 352.5 354.6 361.9 369.6 389.7

Grand Total5 1,558.2 1,586.8 1,626.3 1,681.8 1,838.3

Eastern Parts of Renfrew County (STA) 306.2 319.3 324.6 341.5 374.3

Notes: 1 Supermarkets, Convenience Stores, A ll Other Food Stores, Drug Stores and Beer, Wine &

Liquor Stores. 2 Shoes, Accessory, Jewellery, Clothing Stores (all kinds). 3 Electronics, Appliances, Furniture, Home Furnishings. 4 New and used vehicle, parts, repairs and gasoline. 5 For 2014-2024, expenditures have been increased by 0.25% to 1.5% per year. 6 A ll figures are in the constant value of the Canadian dollar in 2013 (i.e., inflation not

included).

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on actual per capita spending in the Province of Ontario.

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Table 7.6

Total Supportable Floor Space by Spending of Arnprior Residents Major Trade Group Total Supportable Space (sq. ft.)

A. RETAIL PRODUCTS 2014 2016 2017 2019 2024 Food & Convenience Type Merchandise - $400 per sq. ft. 105,700 112,700 116,500 123,500 146,300 - $700 per sq. ft. 60,400 64,400 66,600 70,600 83,600 Fashion Stores - $250 per sq. ft. 34,800 36,800 37,600 40,400 47,600 - $300 per sq. ft. 29,000 30,700 31,300 33,700 39,700 Home Improvement Stores - $250 per sq. ft. 71,600 75,600 78,400 82,800 97,200 - $350 per sq. ft. 51,100 54,000 56,000 59,100 69,400 General Merchandise and Dept. Stores - $300 per sq. ft. 59,000 62,700 64,700 68,700 81,000 - $400 per sq. ft. 44,200 47,000 48,500 51,500 60,800 Automotive Stores - $1,000 44,800 47,800 49,400 52,600 61,800 - $2,000 22,400 23,900 24,700 26,300 30,900 Other Retail - $250 per sq. ft. 27,600 29,200 30,400 35,600 41,600 - $300 per sq. ft. 23,000 24,300 25,300 29,700 34,700

SUBTOTAL A: - $403 per sq. ft. 343,500 364,800 377,000 403,600 475,500 - $601 per sq. ft. 230,100 244,300 252,400 270,900 319,100

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

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Table 7.6, cont’d. Major Trade Group Total Supportable Space (sq. ft.) B. RETAIL SERVICES 2014 2016 2017 2019 2024 Restaurants, bars, other Eateries - $300 per sq. ft. 41,700 43,300 44,700 47,300 53,300 - $400 per sq. ft. 31,200 32,500 33,500 35,500 40,000 Personal Services - $200 per sq. ft. 23,500 25,000 25,500 27,000 31,000 - $250 per sq. ft. 18,800 20,000 20,400 21,600 24,800 Other Services - $1,000 per sq. ft. 23,200 24,300 25,000 26,200 29,300 - $1,200 per sq. ft. 19,300 20,300 20,300 21,800 24,400 SUBTOTAL B: - $457 per sq. ft. 88,400 92,600 95,200 100,500 113,600 - $583 per sq. ft. 69,300 72,800 74,700 78,900 89,200 GRAND TOTAL - $413 per sq. ft. 431,900 457,400 472,200 504,100 589,100 - $597 per sq. ft. 299,400 317,100 327,100 349,800 408,300 Total Per Capita Space (sq. ft.) 28 – 40 28 – 41 28 – 41 29 – 42 31 - 44

M inimum Supportable By PTA 459,200 418,600 492,800 533,600 629,300

The above figures refer to the total amount of space supported by the spending of Arnprior residents within as well as outside Arnprior.

Note:

The indust ry average supportable per capi ta space is 30 to 40 sq. ft .

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

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Table 7.7 Total Supportable Floor Space by Spending of

Residents of the Rest of Renfrew County Major Trade Group Total Supportable Space (sq. ft.)

2014 2016 2017 2019 2024

A. RETAIL PRODUCTS Food & Convenience Type Merchandise - $400 per sq. ft. 921,000 944,500 968,200 997,800 1,107,700 - $700 per sq. ft. 526,300 539,700 553,300 570,100 633,000 Fashion Stores - $250 per sq. ft. 304,400 309,200 317,200 326,800 360,400 - $300 per sq. ft. 253,700 257,700 264,300 272,300 300,000 Home Improvement Stores - $250 per sq. ft. 624,000 634,000 651,200 669,600 737,200 - $350 per sq. ft. 445,700 452,900 465,100 478,300 526,600 General Merchandise and Dept. Stores - $300 per sq. ft. 514,300 523,700 537,300 556,000 612,700 - $400 per sq. ft. 385,700 392,700 403,000 417,000 459,500 Automotive Stores - $1,000 390,900 400,100 410,600 425,300 468,200 - $2,000 195,500 200,100 205,300 212,600 234,100 Other Retail - $250 per sq. ft. 239,600 245,600 252,000 287,200 316,000 - $300 per sq. ft. 199,700 204,700 210,000 239,300 263,300

SUBTOTAL A: - $403 per sq. ft. 2,994,200 3,057,100 3,136,500 3,262,700 3,602,200 - $601 per sq. ft. 2,066,600 2,047,800 2,101,000 2,189,600 2,416,800

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

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Table 7.7, cont’d. Major Trade Group Total Supportable Space (sq. ft.) 2014 2016 2017 2019 2024 B. RETAIL SERVICES Restaurants, bars, other Eateries - $300 per sq. ft. 362,300 364,300 372,300 381,700 402,700 - $400 per sq. ft. 271,700 273,200 279,200 286,200 302,000 Personal Services - $200 per sq. ft. 206,500 208,500 212,500 218,000 236,500 - $250 per sq. ft. 165,200 166,800 170,000 174,400 189,200 Other Services - $1,000 per sq. ft. 202,500 203,500 207,700 211,500 221,500 - $1,200 per sq. ft. 168,700 169,600 173,100 176,200 184,600 SUBTOTAL B: - $ 457 per sq. ft. 771,300 776,300 792,500 811,200 860,700 - $ 582 per sq. ft. 605,600 609,600 622,300 636,800 675,800 GRAND TOTAL - $ 413 per sq. ft. 3,765,500 3,833,400 3,929,000 4,073,900 4,462,900 - $ 596 per sq. ft. 2,612,200 2,657,400 2,723,300 2,826,400 3,092,600 Total Per Capita Space (sq. ft.) 28 – 40 28 – 41 28 – 41 29 – 42 31 – 44

M inimum Supportable By STA 529,200 534,800 543,200 571,300 635,500

The above figures refer to the total amount of space supported by the spending of the Secondary Trade Area residents within as well as outside this area.

Note:

The indust ry average supportable per capi ta space is 30 to 40 sq. ft .

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

Page 64

Table 7.8 Minimum Additional Supportable Space Due to

Arnprior Residents’ Expenditures

Major Trade Groups Time Period (sq. ft.)

2014 - 2016

2016 - 2017

2017 - 2019

2019 - 2024

2014 - 2024

A. Retail Products Food & Convenience Type Merchandise 4,000 2,200 4,000 13,000 23,200 Fashion 1,700 600 2,400 6,000 10,700 Home Improvement 2,900 2,000 3,100 10,300 18,300 General Merchandise and Dept. Stores 2,800 1,500 3,000 9,300 16,600 Automotive Stores 1,500 800 1,600 4,600 8,500 Other Retail 1,300 1,000 4,400 5,000 11,700 Subtotal A 14,200 8,100 18,500 48,200 89,000

B. Retail Services Restaurants, bars, other Eateries 1,300 1,000 2,000 4,500 8,800 Personal Services 1,200 400 1,200 3,200 6,000 Other Services 1,000 500 1,000 2,600 5,100 Subtotal B 3,500 1,900 4,200 10,300 19,900

Grand Total 17,700 10,000 22,700 58,500 108,900

M in. Addi tional Supported By PTA 22,300 12,400 40,700 97,100 172,100

Notes:

1 At present (2014), the total spending of Arnprior residents supports a minimum of 299,400 sq. ft. of all types of retail and service floor space combined everywhere.

2 The spending of these residents can potentially support 108,900 sq. ft. of addi tional floor space w ithin as well as outside this area between 2014 and 2024. A lso, the spending of the PTA residents would support an increase of 172,100 sq. ft. of floor space by 2024.

3 The above figures are conservative as they are based on an average per capita space of 28 to 31 sq. ft. whereas the industry standard is 30 to 40 sq. ft. This w ill ensure that estimates of additional supportable floor space would be realistic and market viable.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

Page 65

Table 7.9 Minimum Additional Supportable Space Due to

the rest of Renfrew County Residents’ Expenditures

Major Trade Groups Time Period (sq. ft.)

2014 - 2016

2016 - 2017

2017 - 2019

2019 - 2024

2014 - 2024

A. Retail Products Food & Convenience Type Merchandise 13,400 13,600 16,800 62,900 106,700 Fashion 7,200 6,600 8,000 28,000 46,600 Home Improvement 7,200 12,200 13,200 48,300 80,900 General Merchandise and Dept. Stores 7,000 10,300 14,000 42,900 73,800 Automotive Stores 4,600 5,200 7,300 21,500 38,600 Other Retail 5,000 5,300 29,300 24,000 63,600 Subtotal A 41,200 53,200 88,600 227,200 410,200

B. Retail Services Restaurants, bars, other Eateries 1,500 6,000 7,000 15,800 30,300 Personal Services 1,600 3,200 4,400 14,800 24,000 Other Services 4,000 12,700 14,500 39,000 15,900 Subtotal B 7,100 21,900 14,500 39,000 70,200

Grand Total 45,200 75,100 103,100 266,200 480,400

Eastern Parts of Renfrew County 6,300 9,400 29,200 63,700 108,500

Notes:

1 At present (2014), the total spending of the residents of the rest of Renfrew County supports a minimum of 2.006 million sq. ft. of all types of retail and service floor space combined everywhere.

2 These spending can potentially support up to a 480,400 sq. ft. increase in floor space within as well as outside this area between 2014 and 2024. The share of the STA from this increase is estimated at 108,500 by 2024.

3 The above figures are conservative as they are based on an average per capita space of 28 to 31 sq. ft. whereas the industry standard is 30 to 40 sq. ft.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates

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VIII. An Economic Overview of Arnprior

In this chapter, we have provided a review of Arnprior’s economy. The retail sector is a large part of Arnprior’s local economy, and the well-being of the other sectors has a large impact on it. This overview is intended to provide a brief description of Arnprior’s economy in point form, and compare them with Ontario and Canada as a context for better understanding of the retail market findings in this report. However, as indicated in the Executive Summary, we strongly recommend a ful l economic study for the Town of Arnprior.

A. Labour Force Analysis

1. Key Indicators

• Compared to Renfrew County and Ontario, Arnprior had a lower participation rate and lower employment rate for both 2006 and 2011 years (Table 8.1).

• In 2006, Arnprior had a lower unemployment rate than Renfrew County and Ontario. However, it jumped to 9.4% in 2011 which was significantly higher than Renfrew County and Ontario.

2. Jobs By Sector

The largest job percentage increases by industry sector for Arnprior

between 2006 and 2014 were in the following sectors (Table 8.2):

• Information and cultural industries (211% vs. 7% in Ontario) • Real estate and rental and leasing (151% vs. 14% in Ontario)

The following two sectors had large job percentage declines between 2006 and 2014 compared to Ontario:

• Finance and insurance (57% vs. 18% in ON) • Arts, entertainment and recreation (64% vs. 6% in ON)

Wholesale trade, manufacturing and utilities also lost a significant percentage of jobs, with manufacturing suffering the largest job losses, which amounted to 480 jobs.

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3. Jobs by Occupation

Between 2006 and 2014, in comparison to Ontario, Arnprior had a larger

percentage increase in the following occupations (Tables 8.3 & 8.4):

• Health occupations (47.0% vs. 26.0% in ON) o Assisting occupations in support of health services (90.0% vs. 20.0%

in ON)

• Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (60.0% vs. 22.0% in ON) o Professional occupations in art and culture (75.0% vs. 22.0% in ON)

• Occupations unique to primary industry (49.0% vs. -5% in ON) o Occupations unique to agriculture, excluding labourers (94.0% vs. -

4.0% in ON)

• Sales and service occupations (15.0% vs. 13.0% in ON) o Sales and service supervisors (69.0% vs. 32.0% in ON) o Wholesale, technical, insurance, real estate sales specialists, and

retail, wholesale and grain buyers (79.0% vs. 9.0% in ON)

• In comparison to Ontario, Arnprior had a larger job percentage decline in the following occupations between 2006 and 2014:

• Management occupations (-29.0% vs. -3.0% in ON) o Specialist managers (-37.0% vs. 2.0% in ON) o Managers in retail trade, food and accommodation services (-39.0%

vs. -14.0% in ON)

• Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (-44.0% vs. -27% in ON) o Machine operators in manufacturing (-53.0% vs. -41.0% in ON) o Assemblers in manufacturing (-53.0% vs. -14.0% in ON) o Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities (-43.0% vs. -

24.0% in ON)

4. Place of Work

The following two tables provide information on persons reporting a “ usual place of work other than in their home or outside of Canada” , and

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reveal the following regarding labour force commuting (Tables 8.5 & 8.6):

• The majority of the Arnprior resident labour force who worked outside of Arnprior commuted to work in Ottawa, and to the Town of Renfrew.

• The largest number of non-resident labour force commuting to work in Arnprior travelled from Township of McNab/ Braeside, Ottawa, and from Mississippi Mills.

• 47.9% of the workers living in Arnprior had a usual place of work outside of Arnprior.

• 66.1% of workers declaring a usual place of work in Arnprior lived outside of Arnprior.

B. Economic Base Analysis

1. Location Quotient Analysis

An economic base analysis is an analysis of how the local economy functions. It does not provide solutions to economic problems, but instead provides useful information required for decision-making about economic strategies.

The economic base analysis helps determine which economic activities “ bring money in” , and where money might be “ leaking out” . While the actual flow of money in and out of Arnprior would be the most accurate means of describing the economic base of the area, data or statistics for this form of cash flow analysis are not available. As such, a surrogate for cash flow is required, and the most common substitute is employment which uses an economic base analysis tool called “ Location Quotient Analysis” . This method compares the level of employment concentration (or special ization) in Arnprior to the level of employment concentration in one or more benchmark areas. In other words, does Arnprior have proportionately more or less employees in specific industries than the benchmark area?

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“ Benchmarking” employment in Arnprior to Ontario and Canada provides information on:

• The extent to which Arnprior is producing all of the goods or services required for consumption in Arnprior (this potentially identifies opportunities to replace the imports with locally provided goods and services).

• Whether the Arnprior economy is producing goods or services in excess of quantities required for local consumption, indicating a high degree of development and specialization (or industry concentration) that results from the goods or services being consumed by non-residents.

The location quotient method is a “ first cut” analysis that requires interpretation of the results, but it will point to the economic sectors that deserve a more thorough and in-depth analysis and “ street-level” validation. A location quotient of between 0.75 and 1.25 generally indicates the local economy is self-sufficient in that industry. A 1.0 would indicate the exact same proportion of that industry’s jobs to all Arnprior jobs as to that of the benchmark, in this case, Canada. A location quotient of less than 0.75 usually indicates a lack of self-sufficiency, requiring an importation of goods or services, as there is insufficient local employment to produce the required goods/ services. A location quotient of greater than 1.25 usually indicates the industry has more local employment than is required to sustain the needs of Arnprior; therefore, it will export its goods or services and bring money into the community.

2. Location Quotients Analysis by Sector

Overall the location quotients analysis reveals that Arnprior has a relatively balanced economy for a community of this size (Table 8.7).

Sector location quotients for Arnprior vary when compared to Ontario and Canada. Employment in the manufacturing sector is the most highly concentrated sector in Arnprior. Compared to Ontario and Canada, employment sectors in Arnprior which had a higher than normal concentration were:

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• Utilities9

• Manufacturing

• Real estate and rental and leasing

The real estate and rental/ leasing sector become highly concentrated in terms of employment 2014 in comparison to 2006.

3. Dominant Sub-Sectors

Table 8.8 indicates the sub-sectors with 2014 Provincial LQ greater than 1.5.

The following sub-sectors became more concentrated (in terms of employment) between 2006 and 2014 in Arnprior:

• Chemical manufacturing • Primary metal manufacturing • Other information services • Gasoline stations • Postal service • Motor vehicle and parts dealers • Real estate • Nursing and residential care facilities • M iscellaneous merchant wholesalers • Non-store retailers • Construction of buildings

4. Business Pattern Data

Most sectors lost businesses between June 2009 and December 2013. Only the following four sectors experience a growth in the number of businesses during this period (Table 8.9):

• Information and cultural industries • Real estate and rental and leasing • Health care and social assistance

9 In Table 8.7, Arnprior’s quotient for Util ities is 2.49 in 2006 compared to Ontario. More simply stated, Arnprior had proportionally 2.49 times more people working in utili ties than Ontario (a quotient of 1.0 means equal proportion, less than 1.0 indicates comparative weakness and more than 1.0 means comparative strength).

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• Public administration

Drilling down into the business patterns data at the sub-sector level provide

further insight into some of these changes. Table 8.10 includes subsectors

with a minimum of ten employers.

The following four sub-sectors experienced an increase in the number of businesses between June 2009 and December 2013:

• Real estate • Ambulatory health care services • Construction of buildings • Religious, grant-making, civic, and professional and similar

organizations

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Table 8.1 Key Labour Force Indicators, Arnprior, Renfrew vs. Ontario, 2006 vs. 2011

Arnprior Renfrew Ontario

2006 2011 2006 2011 2006 2011

Total population aged 15 years and over by labour force status 5935 6770 79435 82720 9819420 10473670

In the labour force 3600 3975 49645 51785 6587575 6864990 Employed 3380 3600 46345 47770 6164245 6297005 Unemployed 220 375 3305 4020 423335 567985 Not in the labour force 2335 2795 29790 30935 3231840 3608685 Participation rate 60.7 58.7 62.5 62.6 67.1 65.5 Employment rate 57 53.2 58.3 57.7 62.8 60.1 Unemployment rate 6.1 9.4 6.7 7.8 6.4 8.3

Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey. Statistics Canada 2006 Census data.

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Table 8.2

Jobs Changes by Sector Arnprior vs. Ontario, 2006 to 2014

Description Arnprior 2006 Jobs

Arnprior 2014 Jobs

Arnprior Job Change

Arnprior % Change

Ontario % Change

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 0 65 65 -- (5%) Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 0 <10 -- -- 13%

Utilities 105 76 (29) (28%) 2% Construction 368 518 150 41% 18% Manufacturing 1,718 1,238 (480) (28%) (21%) Wholesale trade 288 179 (109) (38%) 1% Retail trade 840 847 7 1% 6% Transportation and warehousing 113 133 20 18% 11% Information and cultural industries 45 140 95 211% 7% Finance and insurance 181 77 (104) (57%) 18% Real estate and rental and leasing 109 274 165 151% 14% Professional, scientific and technical services 158 152 (6) (4%) 20%

Management of companies and enterprises 0 0 0 0% (10%)

Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 140 131 (9) (6%) (1%)

Educational services 293 385 92 31% 13% Health care and social assistance 568 821 253 45% 23% Arts, entertainment and recreation 74 27 (47) (64%) 6% Accommodation and food services 586 517 (69) (12%) 16% Other services (except public administration) 243 209 (34) (14%) 10%

Public administration 152 161 9 6% 10% Unclassified 93 135 42 45% 72% Total 6,075 6,092 17 0% 8%

Source: McSweeney & Associates from Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Ministry of Rural A ffairs in partnership with EMSI 2014.1.

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Table 8.3 Changes by Occupation, 2006 to 2014, Arnprior vs. Ontario

Description Arnprior 2006 Jobs

Arnprior 2014 Jobs

Arnprior Job Change

Arnprior % Change

Ontario % Change

Management occupations 532 378 -154 -29.0% -3.0% Business, finance and administrative occupations 763 686 -77 -10.0% 7.0%

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 364 350 -14 -4.0% 14.0%

Health occupations 379 558 179 47.0% 26.0% Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion

356 417 61 17.0% 24.0%

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 81 130 49 60.0% 22.0%

Sales and service occupations 1484 1708 224 15.0% 13.0% Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

981 1058 77 8.0% 1.0%

Occupations unique to primary industry 93 139 46 49.0% -5.0%

Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities

949 532 -417 -44.0% -27.0%

Unclassified 93 135 42 45.0% 72.0% Total 6075 6092 17 0.0% 8.0%

Source: McSweeney & Associates from Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Ministry of Rural A ffairs in partnership with EMSI 2014.1.

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Table 8.4 Change by Detailed Occupation, 2006 to 2014, Arnprior vs. Ontario

NOC-S Description Arnprior 2006 Jobs

Arnprior 2014 Jobs

Arnprior Job

Change

Arnprior %

Change

Ontario %

Change

A0 Senior management occupations 20 <10 -- -- -40.0%

A1 Specialist managers 95 60 -35 -37.0% 2.0%

A2 Managers in retail trade, food and accommodation services 273 166 -107 -39.0% -14.0%

A3 Other managers, n.e.c. 143 146 3 2.0% 12.0%

B0 Professional occupations in business and finance 86 76 -10 -12.0% 30.0%

B1 Finance and insurance administration occupations 56 49 -7 -13.0% 8.0%

B2 Secretaries 60 52 -8 -13.0% -25.0%

B3 Administrative and regulatory occupations 80 83 3 4.0% 23.0%

B4 Clerical supervisors 35 37 2 6.0% 33.0% B5 Clerical occupations 446 390 -56 -13.0% -3.0%

C0 Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 143 140 -3 -2.0% 20.0%

C1 Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 221 211 -10 -5.0% 5.0%

D0 Professional occupations in health 57 83 26 46.0% 40.0%

D1 Nurse supervisors and registered nurses 95 140 45 47.0% 18.0%

D2 Technical and related occupations in health 108 112 4 4.0% 33.0%

D3 Assisting occupations in support of health services 118 224 106 90.0% 20.0%

E0

Judges, lawyers, psychologists, social workers, ministers of religion, and policy and program officers

60 70 10 17.0% 35.0%

E1 Teachers and professors 176 224 48 27.0% 20.0%

E2 Paralegals, social services workers and occupations in education and religion, n.e.c.

121 124 3 2.0% 21.0%

F0 Professional occupations in art and culture 24 42 18 75.0% 22.0%

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Table 8.4 Change by Detailed Occupation, 2006 to 2014, Arnprior vs. Ontario

NOC-S Description Arnprior 2006 Jobs

Arnprior 2014 Jobs

Arnprior Job

Change

Arnprior %

Change

Ontario %

Change

F1 Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 57 88 31 54.0% 21.0%

G0 Sales and service supervisors 84 142 58 69.0% 32.0%

G1

Wholesale, technical, insurance, real estate sales specialists, and retail, wholesale and grain buyers

129 231 102 79.0% 9.0%

G2 Retail salespersons and sales clerks 162 159 -3 -2.0% 1.0%

G3 Cashiers 192 190 -2 -1.0% 8.0% G4 Chefs and cooks 130 113 -17 -13.0% 19.0%

G5 Occupations in food and beverage service 106 135 29 27.0% 23.0%

G6 Occupations in protective services 48 60 12 25.0% 13.0%

G7

Occupations in travel and accommodation, including attendants in recreation and sport

21 13 -8 -38.0% 11.0%

G8 Child care and home support workers 58 78 20 34.0% 35.0%

G9 Sales and service occupations, n.e.c. 553 587 34 6.0% 13.0%

H0 Contractors and supervisors in trades and transportation 71 108 37 52.0% 3.0%

H1 Construction trades 107 159 52 49.0% 7.0%

H2

Stationary engineers, power station operators and electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

71 107 36 51.0% 0.0%

H3 Machinists, metal forming, shaping and erecting occupations

115 93 -22 -19.0% -29.0%

H4 Mechanics 243 250 7 3.0% 0.0% H5 Other trades, n.e.c. 48 29 -19 -40.0% -1.0%

H6 Heavy equipment and crane operators, including drillers 55 67 12 22.0% 20.0%

H7 Transportation equipment operators and related workers, excluding labourers

106 123 17 16.0% 5.0%

H8 Trades helpers, construction and transportation labourers and related occupations

165 121 -44 -27.0% 4.0%

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Table 8.4 Change by Detailed Occupation, 2006 to 2014, Arnprior vs. Ontario

NOC-S Description Arnprior 2006 Jobs

Arnprior 2014 Jobs

Arnprior Job

Change

Arnprior %

Change

Ontario %

Change

I0 Occupations unique to agriculture, excluding labourers

47 91 44 94.0% -4.0%

I1

Occupations unique to forestry operations, mining, oil and gas extraction and fishing, excluding labourers

<10 12 -- -- -13.0%

I2 Primary production labourers 40 36 -4 -10.0% -5.0%

J0 Supervisors in manufacturing 139 135 -4 -3.0% -1.0%

J1 Machine operators in manufacturing 465 220 -245 -53.0% -41.0%

J2 Assemblers in manufacturing 187 88 -99 -53.0% -14.0%

J3 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 157 90 -67 -43.0% -24.0%

X0 Unclassified 93 135 42 45.0% 72.0% Total 6075 6092 17 0.0% 8.0%

Source: McSweeney & Associates from Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Ministry of Rural A ffairs in partnership with EMSI 2014.1.

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Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 99-012-X2011032.http:/ / bit.ly/ 1mhams3

Table 8.5 Where Arnprior Resident Labour Force Worked, 2011 Place of Work Total Male Female Arnprior 1,505 615 895 Gatineau 40 0 35 Clarence-Rockland 20 0 0 Ottawa 1,100 565 535 Carleton Place 25 0 0 Mississippi Mills 25 0 20 McNab/Braeside 35 0 0 Renfrew, Town 140 75 70 Total Resident Labour Force 2,890 1,255 1,555

Total resident labour force with a usual place of work outside of Arnprior 1,385 640 660

Percent of residents declaring a place of work outside of Arnprior 47.9% 51.0% 42.4%

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Table 8.6 Place of Residence for Persons Working in Arnprior, 2011 Place of Residence Total Male Female Arnprior 1505 615 895 Clarence-Rockland 35 30 0 Ottawa 545 300 250 Carleton Place 20 15 0 Mississippi Mills 300 175 120 McNab/Braeside 1540 745 795 Admaston/Bromley 50 25 15 Horton 245 110 135 Renfrew, Town 140 95 45 Whitewater Region 65 45 0

Total workforce working in Arnprior 4,445 2,155 2,255

Total non-resident workforce commuting to work to Arnprior 2,940 1,540 1,360

Percent of workers (non-residents) commuting to work to Arnprior 66.1% 71.5% 60.3%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 99-012-X2011032.http:/ / bit.ly/ 1mhams3

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Table 8.7

Location Quotients by Sector, Arnprior, 2006 vs. 2014

Description

2006 Provincial Location Quotient

2006 National Location Quotient

2014 Provincial Location Quotient

2014 National Location Quotient

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 0 0 0.73 0.49

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 0 0 -- --

Utilities 2.49 2.54 1.89 1.93 Construction 1.07 0.98 1.36 1.2 Manufacturing 2.14 2.54 2.11 2.44 Wholesale trade 0.9 0.98 0.6 0.64 Retail trade 1.27 1.19 1.3 1.24 Transportation and warehousing 0.42 0.4 0.48 0.47 Information and cultural industries 0.35 0.37 1.07 1.21

Finance and insurance 0.66 0.75 0.26 0.3 Real estate and rental and leasing 0.82 0.87 1.95 2.11

Professional, scientific and technical services 0.38 0.41 0.33 0.37

Management of companies and enterprises 0 0 0 0

Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services

0.37 0.44 0.37 0.42

Educational services 0.75 0.73 0.94 0.93 Health care and social assistance 1.04 0.96 1.3 1.25 Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.64 0.65 0.23 0.23

Accommodation and food services 1.64 1.51 1.35 1.26

Other services (except public administration) 0.89 0.84 0.75 0.73

Public administration 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.43 Unclassified 1.08 1.15 0.99 1

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Table 8.8

Location Quotients by Sub-Sector, Arnprior, 2006 vs. 2014

NAICS Code Description

2006 Provincial Location Quotient

2006 National Location Quotient

2014 Provincial Location Quotient

2014 National Location Quotient

325 Chemical manufacturing 6.53 8.82 15.24 20.34 331 Primary metal manufacturing 4.82 6.23 10.57 13.47 519 Other information services 0.89 1.24 6.55 9.29 447 Gasoline stations 1.92 1.4 6.2 4 314 Textile product mills 9.41 10.45 4.44 4.77 113 Forestry and logging 0 0 4.13 1.34 491 Postal service 1.26 1.34 3.16 3.33 336 Transportation equipment manufacturing 2.49 4.33 2.9 4.98 441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 2.29 2.03 2.65 2.25 531 Real estate 0.49 0.53 2.14 2.44 221 Utilities 2.49 2.54 1.89 1.93 623 Nursing and residential care facilities 1.07 0.93 1.85 1.83 418 Miscellaneous merchant wholesalers 0.98 1.14 1.76 2.04 339 Miscellaneous manufacturing 2.75 2.93 1.62 1.78 454 Non-store retailers 0 0 1.56 1.67 722 Food services and drinking places 1.79 1.7 1.54 1.49 236 Construction of buildings 1.18 1.1 1.53 1.37

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Table 8.9

Arnprior Total Number of Employers by Sector: June 2009 & Dec. 2013

Description 2009 June Total

2013 Dec. Total

% Change

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 28 11 -60.71 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 0 1 n/a Utilities 2 1 -50.00 Construction 77 64 -16.88 Manufacturing 40 25 -37.50 Wholesale trade 28 22 -21.43 Retail trade 98 69 -29.59 Transportation and warehousing 26 16 -38.46 Information and cultural industries 7 9 28.57 Finance and insurance 47 34 -27.66 Real estate and rental and leasing 53 62 16.98 Professional, scientific and technical services 78 51 -34.62 Management of companies and enterprises 23 16 -30.43 Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 35 23 -34.29

Educational services 6 3 -50.00 Health care and social assistance 38 41 7.89 Arts, entertainment and recreation 14 9 -35.71 Accommodation and food services 32 29 -9.38 Other services (except public administration) 70 55 -21.43 Public administration 2 3 50.00 Total 704 544 -22.73

Source: Canadian Business Patterns June 2009 and December 2013

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Table 8.10

Arnprior Total Number of Employers by Sub-Sector: June 2009 & Dec. 20132

NAICS Code

Description

June 2009 Total

2013 Dec

. Total

% Change

531 Real estate 45 57 26.67 621 Ambulatory health care services 27 29 7.41 236 Construction of buildings 16 17 6.25 813 Religious, grant-making, civic, and professional and similar organizations 17 18 5.88 722 Food services and drinking places 28 24 -14.29 812 Personal and laundry services 22 18 -18.18 238 Specialty trade contractors 50 37 -26.00 811 Repair and maintenance 25 18 -28.00 551 Management of companies and enterprises 23 16 -30.43

523 Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investment and related activities 31 21 -32.26

561 Administrative and support services 35 23 -34.29 541 Professional, scientific and technical services 78 51 -34.62

2 Sorted in descending % change for subsectors with a total number of employers greater than 10.

Source: Canadian Business Patterns June 2009 and December 2013

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APPENDIX A: TELEPHONE SURVEY INSTRUMENT

Tel____________________ Date_____________________ By____________________

Good_________________. My name is___________________ and I work for an

independent firm called Shore-Tanner & Associates. On behalf of the Town of Arnprior, we are conducting a survey about shopping patterns, and I would appreciate your participation. (As appropriate, mention that you are not going to sel l anything; the survey will take 10 to 15 minutes; and its results would only be used in a statistical way. Probe for as many retail and service stores as possible. Ensure that he/ she is over 18 years of age, and responsible for most of the household's shopping. As necessary, make call back appointments. Thank and terminate the interview if not able to, or not interested in participating.) Call back_________________. 1. Record gender: (a) M (b) F

A. Shopping in the past month: Food & Drug Stores

I am now going to read you a list of retail and service stores. For each of them, please tell me whether you have shopped there in the past month, the store’s name, and approximately how much you spent (Repeat/ explain if necessary. Ensure the spending is for the past one month for Section A, and past three months for Section B)

2. In the past month, which Supermarkets have you shopped at?

3. In the past month, which special ty food stores have you shopped at?

4. In the past month, which restaurants, bars, or cof fee shops have to you gone to?

5. In the past month, which pharmacies/drug stores have you shopped at?

B. Shopping in the Past 3 Months

6. In the past 3 months which Canadian Ti re or other hardware stores have you shopped at?

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7. In the past 3 months which Costco Store(s) have you shopped at?

8. In the past 3 months, which furni ture, electronics or appl iance stores have you shopped at?

9. In the past 3 months, which sporting goods or outdoor stores have you shopped at?

10. In the past three months, which department stores have you shopped at?

11. In the past three months, which clothing, shoes, or accessory stores have you shopped at? (record up to five)

12. In the past three months, which Walmart store(s) have you shopped at?

13. In the past three months, which gi f t or other special ty retai l stores have you shopped at? (record up to three)

C. Opinions

14. What do you l ike most about retail stores and other businesses in Arnprior (assist, probe, get up to five responses, but do not read choices):

a. Specialty stores b. Quality of products i. Charming/ quaint c. Friendly staff/ service j. Independent stores d. Variety/ choice/ selection k. No box, or large stores e. Price, value l. Sidewalk/ lighting/ signage f. Neighbourhood/ community m. Habit/ tradition atmosphere n. Supporting local merchants g. Close to home/ work o. Nothing in particular h. Size p. Other (specify)___________

15. And now, please tell me what you do not l ike about the retail stores and other businesses in Arnprior (assist, probe, get up to five responses, but do not read):

a. Parking shortage g. Unattractive/ poor atmosphere b. Traffic congestion h. Too far from work/ home

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c. High prices i. Nothing in particular d. Not enough variety/ choice j. Limited store hours e. Poor customer service k. Too many vacant stores f. Not enough chain stores l. Other (specify)___________

16. What types of addi tional businesses or developments of any kind would you like to see in Arnprior? (probe, mention cinemas, daycare if necessary, write name and/ or type of establishments, get up to three responses):

a._____________________b.____________________c.___________________

17. Including yourself, how many persons live in your household?

a) one c) three e) five

b) two d) four f) six or more g) refused

18. Which of the following age groups do you belong to (read a-e and rotate):

a) 18-29 b) 30-39 c) 40-49 d) 50-64 e) 65 or older f) Refused

19. In general , which of the social media do you normal ly use ? (read if

necessary, and accept multiple responses):

a) Facebook b) Twitter c) LinkedIn d) Tumblr

e) Other:________________ f) None g) Refused

20. What is the range of your household's total annual income before taxes?

(read a-e, and rotate)

a) Under $40,000 b) $40,000 to 59,999 c) $60,000 to $79,999

d) $80,000 to $99,999 e) $100,000 or More f) Refused

21- Finally, what is the name of the Town in which you live (not street address)?

Thank you for your cooperation and have a nice_________________.

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Table A.1 Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Respondents

Characteristics Arnprior Residents Other Residents All Residents No. % No. % No. %

A. Age Groups

18 – 29 15 7.5 7 3.5 22 5.5 30 – 39 37 18.5 23 11.5 60 15.0 40 – 49 49 24.5 57 28.5 106 26.5 50 – 64 56 28.0 76 38.0 132 33.0 65 & Older 35 17.5 32 16.0 67 16.7 Refusals 8 4.0 5 2.5 13 3.2 Total 200 100.0 200 100.0 400 100.0 Average Age1 In Years 51.9 — 52.1 — 52.0 —

B. Households By Size

Single Person 60 30.0 24 12.0 84 42.0 Two Persons 80 400 116 57.8 196 49.0 Three Persons 28 14.0 25 12.3 53 13.2 Four Persons or More 30 15.0 35 17.3 65 16.2 Refusals 2 1.0 0 0 2 0.5 Total 200 100.0 200 100.0 400 100.0 Average Size2 2.22 — 2.44 — 2.33 —

C. Household Income ($)

Under 40,000 28 14.0 24 12.0 52 13.0 40,000 – 59,999 29 14.5 28 14.0 57 14.2 60,000 – 79,999 41 20.5 37 18.5 78 19.5 80,000 – 99,999 40 20.0 45 22.5 85 21.2 100,000 or More 27 13.5 43 21.5 70 17.5 Refusals 35 17.5 23 11.5 58 14.5 Total 200 100.0 200 100.0 400 100.0 Average Income3 70,240 — 75,540 — 72,980 —

Notes: 1 Used 70 for “ 65 & Older,” excluding Refusals. 2 Used 4.5 for “ Four or More,” excluding Refusals. 3 Used $25,000 for “ Under $40,000” and $110,000 for “ $100,000 or More,” excluding Refusals.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 88

Table A.2 Origins of Respondents

Area Number % Town of Arnprior 200 50.0 McNab/Braeside 54 13.6 Renfrew Town 23 5.7 Carleton Place 21 5.3 Almonte 13 3.2 Horton 4 1.0 White Lake 23 5.7 Fitzroy Harbour 11 2.7 Pakenham 9 2.2 Other 28 7.0 Refused 14 3.5 Total 400 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 89

Table A.3 What Respondents Like About Arnprior Retail Businesses

Positive Attributes Arnprior Residents Other Residents All Residents No. % No. % No. %

a. Specialty Stores 9 2.5 7 2.4 16 2.6 b. Quality of products 7 1.9 7 2.4 14 2.1 c. Friendly staff/service 63 17.3 5.8 19.9 121 18.5 d. Variety/choice/selection 11 3.0 10 3.4 21 3.2 e. Price, value 19 5.2 19 6.5 38 5.8 f. Neighbourhood/community atmosphere 25 6.9 19 6.5 44 6.7 g. Close to home/work 68 18.7 42 14.4 110 16.8 h. Size 12 3.3 13 4.4 25 3.8 i. Charming/quaint 18 5.0 10 3.4 28 4.3 j. Independent stores 7 1.9 14 4.8 21 3.2 k. Box, or large stores 4 1.1 1 — 5 0.7 l. Sidewalk/lighting/signage 1 0.3 3 1.0 4 0.6 m. Habit/tradition 17 4.7 12 4.1 29 4.4 n. Supporting local merchants 17 4.7 10 3.4 27 4.1 o. Nothing in particular 61 16.8 40 13.7 101 15.4 p. Other 24 6.6 27 9.2 51 7.8 Total Mentions 363 100.0 292 100.0 655 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 90

Table A.4 What Respondents Do Not Like About Arnprior Retail Businesses

Negative Attributes Arnprior Residents Other Residents All Residents No. % No. % No. %

a. Parking Shortage 7 1.6 3 0.9 10 1.3 b. Traffic congestion 13 2.9 9 2.7 22 2.8 c. High prices 44 9.9 26 7.9 70 9.0 d. Not enough variety/choice 108 24.3 71 21.6 175 23.1 e. Poor customer service 11 2.5 14 4.2 25 3.2 f. Not enough chain stores 46 10.3 28 8.5 74 9.6 g. Unattractive/poor atmosphere 66 14.8 58 17.6 124 16.0 h. Too far from work/home 8 1.8 6 1.8 14 1.8 i. Nothing in particular 35 7.9 41 12.5 76 9.8 j. Limited store hours 17 3.8 10 3.0 27 3.5 k. Too many vacant stores 65 14.6 45 13.7 110 14.2 l. Other 25 5.6 18 5.5 43 5.6 Total Mentions 445 100.0 329 100.0 774 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Table A.5 Use of Social Media By Respondents

Social Media Arnprior Residents Other Residents All Residents No. % No. % No. %

Facebook 93 33.8 80 32.0 173 32.9 Twitter 36 13.1 20 6.1 56 10.7 LinkedIn 16 5.8 15 6.0 31 5.9 Tumblr 19 6.9 8 3.2 27 5.1 Other 19 6.9 17 6.8 36 6.9 None 90 32.7 110 44.0 200 38.1 Refusals 2 0.7 0 0 2 0.4 Total 275 100.0 250 100.0 525 100.0

On an overall average basis, each resident of Arnprior uses 1.37 different social media. Excluding those who use none or refused, the average increase to 1.69 per resident (1.25 and 1.56 per resident of other areas respectively).

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 91

Table A.6

Spending of Arnprior Residents By Store Name and Location Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior

Name Count Total spent($) Name Count Total Spent($) Location A. Supermarkets and Other Food Stores Metro 111 30,227 No Frills 3 1,197 Renfrew No Frills 106 24,083 Your Independ. 2 400 Stittsville Giant Tiger 9 738 Loblaws 7 1,223 Carleton Place Sobeys 2 200 Ottawa Walmart 9 2,101 Carleton Place Walmart 4 1,396 Renfrew Subtotal A 226 55,048 27 6,517

B. Specialty Food Stores Bulk & Natural 23 1,623 Bulk Barn 4 226 Carleton Place Bonnie Jane’s 1 7 Bulk Barn 3 255 Kanata Herbal Magic 9 731 Farm Boy 3 315 Kanata M & M 5 266 Wheatless Bakery 1 300 Renfrew Valley Roots 27 2,281 Subtotal B 65 4,908 11 1,096

C. Restaurants & Bars Antrium Truck Stop

8 465 Bai Thai 2 80 Nepean

Asian Dragon 16 1,124 Denny’s 2 100 Ottawa Bonnie Jane's 7 41 Harvey’s 2 39 Kanata Country Style 2 120 McDonald’s 2 30 Kanata Dairy Queen 2 30 Pizza Pizza 3 60 Carleton Place Danny Mac’s 20 1,237 Royal Oak 2 80 Ottawa Eastside Mario 5 432 Starbucks 4 73 Ottawa Jim’s 12 482 Tim Horton’s 5 75 Ottawa La Presse 5 140 Mama Rosa 5 286 McCallum’s 5 173 McDonald’s 7 146 PJ’s 9 479 Prior’s Sports 4 253 Shawarma 2 40 Sports Bar 3 306 Steve Denni’s 16 884 Subway 4 43 Sweet & Sassy 4 75

Note: Country Style, Prior’s Sports and Sports Bar are the names given by respondents (all refer to the same business).

Page 92

Table A.6, continued

Spending of Arnprior Residents By Store Name and Location Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior

Name Count Total spent($) Name Count Total Spent($) Location Tim Horton’s 28 1,104 Tosh Steakhouse 6 450 Wendy’s 7 105 Subtotal C 177 8,422 23 537

D. Drug Stores Arnprior Pharmacy 4 35 Farm Boy 1 100 Ottawa Clancy’s Drugs 16 891 Loblaws 2 200 Ottawa Guardian 3 350 Walmart 2 20 Carleton Place Metro 2 300 Walmart 2 50 Renfrew No Frills 2 300 Rexall 58 4,321 Shoppers Drug 111 8,995 Subtotal D 196 15,192 7 170

E. Canadian Tire & Hardware Canadian Tire 82 17,004 Canadian Tire 3 150 Carleton Place M&R Feeds 1 100 Home Depot 2 300 Kanata Rona 14 7,687 Rona 3 37 Carleton Place TSC 12 1,915 Home Hardware 89 8,498 Subtotal E 198 35,204 8 487

F. Costco Costco 76 31,620 Kanata Costco 78 10,739 Nepean Subtotal F 0 0 154 42,359 G. Furniture, Electronics & Appliances Bell Mobility 2 600 Bayshore 3 1,950 Nepean Robertson’s Furniture 12 3,258 Best Buy 4 3,338 Ottawa Future Shop 2 400 Ottawa Sears Appliance 15 15,415 IKEA 2 300 Ottawa The Source 19 1,004 The Brick 2 600 Ottawa Sears 2 16,000 Ottawa Sears 2 13,000 Renfrew Best Buy 3 480 Kanata The Source 2 60 Kanata Braeside

Furniture 4 5,066 Breaside

Subtotal G 48 20,277 26 41,194

Page 93

Table A.6, continued

Spending of Arnprior Residents By Store Name and Location Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior

Name Count Total spent($) Name Count Total Spent($) Location H. Sporting Goods Play It Again 24 3,288 Bushtukah 3 525 Ottawa Le Baron 5 925 Ottawa Fresh Air 2 800 Ottawa Golf Town 1 200 Ottawa Mountain Equip 3 525 Ottawa Sail 2 50 Ottawa Golf Town 1 200 Kanata Sport Bar 2 400 Kanata Sport Bar 2 170 Nepean Walmart 2 120 Carleton Place Subtotal H 24 3,288 23 3,915

I. Department Stores Giant Tiger 45 4,475 The Bay 27 3,843 Nepean Hart 17 1,150 Sears 6 2,707 Ottawa Sear’s Appliance 3 1,800 Target 3 705 Ottawa Walmart 3 285 Ottawa Walmart 17 2,753 Carleton Place Walmart 3 285 Kanata Walmart 28 9,995 Renfrew Value Village 2 400 Kanata Winners 2 160 Ottawa Subtotal I 65 7,425 91 21,133 J. Clothing & Shoes Ashley Boutique 3 180 Alia 2 700 Kanata Audrey’s 11 1,137 Armstrong 2 2,000 Renfrew Giant Tiger 38 2,207 The Bay 2 130 Nepean La Plante’s 7 293 Bayshore Centre

(several) 12 2,726 Nepean

Mark’s 12 1,051 St. Laurent Centre 2 150 Ottawa Urban Planet 2 200 Rideau Centre

(several) 4 327 Ottawa

Walmart 10 1,257 Carleton Place Winners 2 400 Ottawa Subtotal J 73 5,068 36 7,690

Page 94

Table A.6, continued Spending of Arnprior Residents By Store Name and Location

Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior Name Count Total spent($) Name Count Total Spent($) Location

K. Walmart Stores Walmart 48 5,759 Carleton Place Walmart 39 7,042 Renfrew Walmart 16 2,261 Kanata Subtotal K 0 0 113 15,062

L. Gifts & Specialty Antiques, Etc. 3 120 Kijiji 2 100 Online Arnprior Gifts 2 140 HomeSense 3 270 Ottawa Gallery Shop 21 3,923 Picket Fence 2 300 Renfrew Goldbar 8 1,350 Light House 3 120 Subtotal L 37 5,653 7 670 Grand Total 1,109 160,485 526 140,830 Average Spent Per Shopping $145 $268

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 95

Table A.7 Distribution of Arnprior Shoppers’ Expenditures

Store Type Spent Within Arnprior Spent Outside Total Dollar

Value ($) % Dollar

Value ($) % Dollar

Value ($) %

1. Supermarkets & Other Food Stores 55,048 89.4 6,517 10.6 61,565 100.0 2. Specialty Food Stores 4,908 81.7 1,096 18.3 6,004 100.0 3. Restaurants, Bars, etc. 8,422 94.0 537 6.0 8,959 100.0 4. Furniture, Electronics & Appliances 20,277 33.0 41,196 67.0 61,471 100.0 5. Sporting Goods 3,288 45.6 3,915 54.4 7,203 100.0 6. Drug Stores 15,192 98.9 170 1.1 15,362 100.0 7. Canadian Tire & Hardware Stores 35,204 98.6 487 1.4 35,961 100.0 8. Costco Stores 0 0 42,359 100.0 42,359 100.0 9. Department Stores 7,425 26.0 21,133 74.0 28,558 100.0 10. Clothing & Shoes 5,068 39.7 7,680 60.3 12,758 100.0 11. Walmart Stores 0 0 15,062 100.0 15,062 100.0 12. Gifts & Specialty Stores 5,653 89.4 670 10.6 6,323 100.0 Grand Total 160,485 53.3 140,830 46.7 301,315 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 96

Table A.8 Spending of Residents Outside of Arnprior By Store Name and Location

Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior Name Count Total spent($) Name Count Total Spent($) Location

A. Supermarkets and Other Food Stores Giant Tiger 9 864 Brown’s YIG 2 600 Stittsville Metro 114 30,530 Farm Boy 13 1,693 Ottawa No Frills 110 27,139 Food Basics 22 2,420 Ottawa Shoppers Drug 1 20 Freshmart 2 540 Ottawa Loblaws 17 9,010 Ottawa YIG 8 1,600 Almonte YIG 30 10,710 Carleton Place Walmart 7 1,800 Carleton Place Walmart 5 500 Kanata Sobey’s 9 3,847 Kanata Price Chopper 11 2,200 Kanata Loblaws 13 1,850 Kanata Loblaws 15 975 Renfrew No Frills 3 925 Renfrew Walmart 12 3,142 Renfrew Subtotal A 234 58,553 169 41,812

B. Specialty Food Stores Bulk & Natural 16 825 Bulk Barn 14 620 Carleton Place Herbal Magic 4 208 Bulk Barn 5 308 Ottawa Wheatless Bakery

2 160 Deli & Meatery 2 140 Ottawa

M & M 4 180 Farm Boy 5 835 Ottawa Valley Butcher 15 1,410 Farm Boy 4 1,200 Kanata Subtotal B 41 2,783 30 3,103

Page 97

Table A.8, continued Spending of Residents Outside of Arnprior By Store Name and Location

Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior Name Count Total spent($) Name Count Total Spent($) Location

C. Restaurants & Bars Antrium Truck 9 455 Coco Jerry 4 240 Renfrew Asian Dragon 9 485 Flamingo 9 530 Renfrew Bonnie Jane's 3 125 Wendy’s 7 225 Renfrew Dairy Queen 1 20 Dairy Queen 3 35 Carleton Place Danny Mac’s 9 600 McDonald’s 2 35 Carleton Place Eastside Mario 4 175 Tim Horton’s 14 385 Carleton Place Jim’s 8 310 Pizza Pizza 4 145 Carleton Place John St. Pub 1 70 Denny’s 19 728 Ottawa La Presse Café 3 90 McDonald’s 3 55 Kanata Mama Rosa’s 6 280 Pokey’s 7 840 Kanata McCallum’s 6 185 Zack’s 8 215 Kanata McDonald’s 6 145 Tim Horton’s 13 124 Almonte PJ’s 13 955 Prior 3 410 Sports Bar 3 120 Steve Denny’s 8 430 Subway 2 25 Sweet & Sassy 3 80 Tim Horton’s 20 544 Tosh Steakhouse 4 280 Subtotal C 125 5,784 93 3,757

D. Drug Stores

Clancy Drugs 15 465 IDA 2 80 Stittsville No Frills 1 100 Nutrochem 4 1,600 Nepean Rexall 62 5,325 Rexall 5 335 Almonte Shoppers Drug 62 4,845 Rexall 3 300 Kanata Shoppers Drug 7 230 Kanata Walmart 12 444 Renfrew Shoppers Drug 18 885 Ottawa Walmart 9 535 Ottawa Walmart 15 645 Carleton Place Subtotal D 140 10,735 75 5,054

Page 98

Table A.8, continued Spending of Residents Outside of Arnprior By Store Name and Location

Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior Name Count Total

spent($) Name Count Total

Spent($) Location

E. Canadian Tire & Hardware Canadian Tire 72 11,370 Canadian Tire 23 3,105 Carleton

Place Home Hardware 75 17,351 Canadian Tire 18 2,750 Renfrew TSC Hardware 15 3,020 Home Hardware 27 1,890 Nepean Rona 3 3,410 Home Hardware 17 1,190 Kanata Lowes 37 27,750 Kanata Subtotal E 165 35,151 122 36,685

F. Costco

0 0 Costco 3 600 Gloucester Costco 99 54,790 Kanata Costco 14 5,460 Nepean Subtotal F 0 0 116 137,966

G. Furniture, Electronics & Appliances

Pete’s Computers 1 500 The Bay 3 110 Nepean Robertsons’s 8 1,164 Braeside Home 2 4,000 Braeside Sears 9 4,428 Canadian Tire 2 413 Ottawa The Source 12 2,815 Electronics Store 2 100 Kanata Mattress Mart 3 4,600 Kanata The Source 4 125 Kanata The Source 2 30 Gloucester Staples 7 560 Renfrew Utreutke 3 1,200 Renfrew Scheels Furniture 7 21,080 Pakenham Subtotal G 30 8,907 40 37,728

H. Sporting Goods

Play It Again Sports 14 728 Bushtukah 2 1,000 Ottawa The Baron 5 5,292 Ottawa Golf Town 4 595 Kanata Kunstad 1 100 Kanata Sportchek 5 590 Nepean Play It Again

Sports 3 125 Orleans

Subtotal H 14 728 20 7,702

Page 99

Table A.8, continued Spending of Residents Outside of Arnprior By Store Name and Location

Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior Name Count Total spent($) Name Count Total Spent($) Location

I. Department Stores Giant Tiger 13 1,425 The Bay 22 5,945 Nepean Hart 13 907 Home Sense 1 100 Stittsville IKEA 2 660 Ottawa Sears 6 838 Ottawa Walmart 4 1,920 Ottawa Sears 2 600 Carleton Place Walmart 16 5,150 Carleton Place Walmart 4 1,925 Kanata Walmart 2 440 Pembroke Walmart 26 4,620 Renfrew Subtotal I 26 2,332 85 22,198

J. Clothing Stores

Audrey’s 4 234 The Bay 2 120 Nepean Giant Tiger 19 1,412 Melanie Lynn 2 700 Nepean La Plante’s 2 2,580 Various 4 360 Nepean Children’s Place 2 200 Ottawa Fraser’s 2 600 Ottawa Rideau Centre 3 480 Ottawa Winners 7 420 Ottawa Various 14 840 Ottawa Payless 5 1,000 Kanata Children’s Place 3 450 Kanata Richard’s 3 600 Kanata Walmart 7 3,510 Kanata Walmart 3 180 Renfrew Fraser’s 3 900 Renfrew Joe Fresh 6 1,410 Renfrew Northern Reflections 2 150 Renfrew Reitman’s 2 100 Renfrew Scott’s 2 95 Renfrew Urban Planet 5 175 Renfrew Walmart 9 585 Carleton Place Pembroke Mall 2 250 Pembroke Gwendoline 3 490 Shawville Subtotal J 36 4,332 91 13,615

Page 100

Table A.8, continued Spending of Residents Outside of Arnprior By Store Name and Location

Within Arnprior Outside Arnprior Name Count Total

spent($) Name Count Total

Spent($) Location

K. Walmart Stores 0 0 Walmart 20 4,103 Carleton

Place Walmart 17 11,066 Kanata Walmart 1 130 Ottawa Walmart 57 10,580 Renfrew Subtotal K 0 0 95 25,879

L. Gift & Specialty

Gallery Gift 6 200 Keeping Company

13 1,105 Renfrew

Goldbar 9 6,930 Antique, etc. 3 180 Renfrew Lighthouse 4 250 Jubilee Jewellers 7 10,800 Ottawa The Flower Shop 1 80 Various Shops 11 615 Ottawa Taing 3 4,500 Nepean Subtotal L 20 7,460 37 17,200 Grand Total 831 136,765 973 352,699 Average Spent Per Shopping ($)

165 362

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 101

Table A.9 Distribution of Expenditures of Residents Outside Arnprior

Store Type Spent Within Arnprior Spent Outside Total Dollar

Value ($) % Dollar

Value ($) % Dollar

Value ($) %

1. Supermarkets & Other Food Stores 58,553 58.3 41,812 41.7 100,365 100.0 2. Specialty Food Stores 2,783 47.3 3,103 52.7 5,886 100.0 3. Restaurants, Bars, etc. 5,784 60.6 3,757 39.4 9,541 100.0 4. Furniture, Electronics & Appliances 8,907 19.1 37,728 80.9 46,635 100.0 5. Sporting Goods 728 8.6 7,702 19.4 8,430 100.0 6. Drug Stores 10,735 68.0 5,054 32.0 15,789 100.0 7. Canadian Tire & Hardware Stores 35,151 48.9 36,685 51.1 71,836 100.0 8. Costco Stores 0 0 137,966 100.0 137,966 100.0 9. Department Stores 2,332 9.5 22,198 90.5 24,530 100.0 10. Clothing & Shoes 4,332 24.1 13,615 75.9 17,947 100.0 11. Walmart Stores 0 0 25,879 100.0 25,879 100.0 12. Gifts & Specialty Stores 7,460 30.2 17,200 69.7 24,660 100.0 Grand Total 136,765 27.9 352,699 72.1 489,464 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 102

Table A.10 Spending At Walmart and Costco Stores

Products Purchased By Residents of Arnprior ($) Elsewhere ($) Total ($)

A. Walmart Stores Supermarkets 3,497 5,442 8,939 Drugs 30 1,624 1,654 Sporting Goods 120 — 120 Department Store Products 13,318 14,055 27,373 Clothing & Shoes 1,257 4,275 5,532 All Other Products 15,062 25,879 40,941 Total: Walmart Stores 33,284 51,275 84,559 GRAND TOTAL SPENDING EVERYWHERE 301,315 489,464 790,779 Percent Spent At Walmart Stores 11.0 10.5 10.7 B. Costco Stores 42,359 137,966 180,325 Percent Spent at Costco Stores 14.1 28.2 22.8

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Table A.11 Overall Average of Arnprior Residents’ Expenditures

Store Type Average Spent Each Time At Stores: Within Arnprior Outside Total

Dollar Value ($)

% Dollar Value ($)

% Dollar Value ($)

%

Supermarkets 244 50.3 241 49.7 485 100.0 Specialty Foods 75 43.6 97 56.4 172 100.0 Restaurants, Bars, etc. 46 66.7 23 33.3 69 100.0 Drug Stores 77 76.2 24 23.8 101 100.0 Canadian Tire & Hardware Stores 178 74.5 61 25.5 239 100.0 Costco Stores 0 0 275 100.0 275 100.0 Furniture, Electronics & Appliances 422 21.0 1,584 79.0 2,006 100.0 Sporting Goods 137 44.6 170 55.4 307 100.0 Department Stores 114 32.9 232 67.1 346 100.0 Clothing & Shoes 69 24.5 213 75.5 282 100.0 Walmart Stores 0 0 133 100.0 133 100.0 Gifts & Specialty Stores 153 61.4 96 38.6 249 100.0 All Stores Combined 145 35.1 268 64.9 413 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 103

Table A.12 Desired New or Additional Businesses

Businesses Mentioned By: Arnprior Residents Others Total

No. % No. % No. % Shoe Stores 44 16.8 40 15.8 84 16.3 More & Better Clothing Stores 41 15.6 30 11.8 71 13.8 Walmart 34 13.0 37 14.6 71 13.8 Improve the Existing Stores 21 8.0 5 2.0 26 5.0 Specialty Stores 18 6.7 — — 18 3.5 Better Restaurants 13 5.0 9 3.6 22 4.3 Costco 8 3.0 6 2.4 14 2.7 Large Department Store 8 3.0 17 6.7 25 4.8 Craft Store 8 3.0 — — 8 1.6 Home Sense — — 5 2.0 5 1.0 Better Supermarket — — 15 5.9 15 2.9 Larger Home Hardware — — 17 6.7 17 3.3 Others 67 25.6 72 28.4 139 27.0 Total 262 100.0 253 100.0 515 100.0

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on the telephone survey of May-June, 2014.

Page 104

APPENDIX B EXECUTIVE INTERVIEW GUIDE: Arnprior

The following issues would be discussed with business owners, managers, and property owners in Arnprior. Interviews would be on an individual and conf idential basis, with emphasis on content and issues rather than who may say what (answers to be written on separate sheets of paper).

1. Name of person interviewed.

2. Gender of person interviewed: a. male b. female

3. Position of person interviewed:

4. Name of his/ her business:

5. Type of his/ her business:

6. Number of years in this business:

7. Number of years in Arnprior:

8. Number of years at this location:

9. Owner occupied or tenant at this location:

10. Number of stores outside Arnprior:

11. Number of employees at this location: FT__________ PT____________

12. What are the strengths and posi tive attributes of Arnprior? Why is your business here rather than elsewhere? (probe)___________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

13. What are some of the chal lenges/problems faced by your business at this

location? (probe)

____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

Page 105

14. In your opinion, what should the Town of Arnprior do to further improve the business environment?: _____________________________

15. In your opinion, what could a BIA for Arnprior do to further improve the business environment ?

__________________________________________________________________

16. (For tenants) In your opinion, what should the landlord do to help your business perform better? (probe) ___________________________________________________________________

17. In your estimation, approximately what percentage of your total annual sales at this store are from customers from OUTSIDE Arnprior ( probe)? ____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

18. In the last two years, have your total sales:

a. increased b. decreased c. stayed the same d. NA/ Refused

19. What are some of the main promotional/ marketing activities you do

annually for your business? (probe: specific social media; radio, TV, print

media; other)

____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

20. Are you aware of any businesses planning to locate to or expand in Arnprior

(probe):_________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

21. What has been your experience with respect to the supply, quality and cost of labour ? (probe) ____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

Page 106

22. What addi tional retail or service stores or any other developments would

you like to see attracted to Arnprior? (probe).

Name Type

a)

b)

c)

d)

e)

23. Any other comments/suggestions on how to further improve the overall

business environment in Arnprior? (probe)

Page 107

APPENDIX C

In April 2014, we carried out field research in the Town of Arnprior, identified every retail and service business by name, type, location, approximate size, and whether independent or chain. In six (6) tables, the detailed results are presented in this appendix as follows:10

A. Businesses in Downtown Arnprior

There are several streets in downtown Arnprior which have retail, service, office, automotive and other types of businesses. John, Elgin and Madawaska are the major ones of these streets. Table C.1 provides a list of the retail and service businesses on these streets, a summary of which is:

• A total of 98 businesses with an estimated total floor space of 214,900 sq. ft.

• A total of 17 of the above are vacant stores with approximately 24,200 sq. ft. of space, reflecting a vacancy rate of 11.3%.

10 The store sizes are approximate. The Tosh Steakhouse has, since April, been burned and its site is vacant now. There may also be a few other minor changes. Overall, however, such minor changes do not alter this study’s main conclusions and recommendations.

Page 108

Table C.1

Businesses in Downtown Arnprior Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.) Status

1. John Street Poize Spa Spa & Hair Care 1,500 Independent The Cup Board Restaurant 1,500 Independent Sun Financial Financial 1,500 Independent Luxx of Style Beauty Salon 1,500 Independent Arnprior Bulk & Natural Foods Specialty Foods 1,500 Independent The Fitness People Karate Gym 2,000 Independent Main Street School of Music Educational 2,000 Independent Star Set Jewellery 1,500 Independent Wags & Whiskers Pet Shop 1,500 Independent Arnprior Bowling Sports/Recreation 2,500 Independent Steve & Denni’s & John St. Pub Restaurant 2,500 Independent B & B Used Goods 2,000 Independent Ashley Boutique Women’s Clothing 1,500 Independent Audrey’s In Town Women’s Clothing 1,500 Independent Robertson’s Furniture 2,000 Independent Pet Photography Photography 1,500 Independent The O’Brien Theatre Cinemas 6,000 Independent Super Lucky Dollar Store General Merchandise 3,000 Independent Bonnie Jane’s Coffee Shop Coffee Shop 1,200 Independent Yoga Studio Gym 1,500 Independent The Arnprior Book Shop Books 1,200 Independent Arnprior Opportunity Shop Used Clothing 2,000 Independent The Gallery Gift Shop Gifts 3,000 Independent Scotiabank Bank 3,125 National Chain Carlson Wagonlit Travel Agency 1,500 Ontario Chain Investors Group Financial 1,500 National Chain RBC Bank 3,000 National Chain Studio 92 Hair Salon 1,200 Independent Hydavape Electronic Cigarettes 1,000 Independent John’s Variety Convenience 1,500 Independent Clip & Snip Barber Shop 1,500 Independent Karen’s Salon Beauty Salon 2,000 Independent Danny Mac’s Pub Restaurant 2,000 Independent Sweet & Sassy Restaurant 1,500 Independent Kevin Dodds Gallery 1,500 Independent Scheel Communications Internet Services 1,500 Independent Vacant (9 stores) Vacant 11,200 — Subtotal: John Street (rounded) 45 79,600 — Vacancy Rate 14.1% —

Page 109

Table C.1, continued Businesses in Downtown Arnprior

Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.) Status

2. Elgin Street Napa Auto Parts Automotive 1,500 National Chain Hair Zone Barber Shop 1,500 Independent Mel’s Flowers Flower Shop 1,000 Independent Giant Tiger General Merchandise 18,000 National Chain CIBC Bank 2,700 National Chain Shoppers Drug Mart Pharmacy 16,000 National Chain Big Daddy’s Pizza Restaurant 1,500 Independent Jim’s Restaurant 2,500 Independent Antiques, Treasures & Treats Antiques 1,000 Independent Shadez Beauty Salon 2,000 Independent Threads N’ Shreds Women’s Clothing 1,500 Independent Laplante’s Men’s Clothing 1,500 Independent Goldbar Jewellery 2,500 Independent Sew Inspired Quilts 1,000 Independent Doug’s Hairstyling Beauty Salon 1,000 Independent Clancy’s Drugs Pharmacy 2,000 Independent Beauty Boutique Beauty Salon 2,000 Independent Antiques, Etc. Antiques 1,500 Independent The Lighthouse Centre Gifts 1,500 Independent Treasure Chest Gifts 1,500 Independent The Shawarma Shoppe Restaurant 1,500 Independent Aimi Nail Salon Beauty Salon 1,500 Independent Sandy’s Hair Beauty Salon 1,500 Independent Norma’s Barbering Barber Shop 1,500 Independent Nev’s Heating & Cooling Home Improvement 1,500 Independent My Chocolate Factory Women’s Clothing 1,500 Independent MacPherson’s Bath Shoppe Home Improvement 2,000 Independent Valley Granite & Tile Home Improvement 1,500 Independent Play It Again Sports Sporting Goods 2,400 National Chain Organic Spa Spa 600 Independent H & R Block Financial 2,000 National Chain Vacant (7 stores) Vacant 11,500 — Subtotal: Elgin Street (rounded) 37 91,200 — Vacancy Rate 12.6% —

Page 110

Table C.1, continued Businesses in Downtown Arnprior

Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.) Status

3. Madawaska Street (River to Elgin)

Edward Jones Financial 2,000 National Chain Angels Used Children’s

Clothing 1,400 Independent

KHL Builder/Developer 1,000 Independent PC’s Computer Electronics 2,000 Independent A’Head of Style Beauty Salon 1,500 Independent Spa Salon Spa 1,500 Independent Towey’s Fishing Equipment 1,200 Independent Madawaska Barber Barber Shop 1,500 Independent Moe’s Palace Lebanese Restaurant 1,200 Independent Priority Wine Wine Shop 1,500 Independent Lorne’s Electric Electricians 2,600 Independent McCallum’s Restaurant 1,500 Independent Milano Pizza Restaurant 1,500 Independent Mac’s Convenience 2,000 National Chain Evanson’s Heating Home Improvement 1,500 Independent Vacant (1 store) Vacant 1,500 — Subtotal: Madawaska (rounded) 16 25,400 — Vacancy Rate 5.9% —

Total Downtown Arnprior = 98 businesses, 196,200 sq. f t. Vacant (included above) = 17 stores, 24,200 sq. f t. Vacancy Rate = 12.3%

Retai l Stores = 37 wi th 93,500 sq. f t. Service Businesses = 44 wi th 78,500 sq. f t.

Page 111

B. Businesses at the Baskin, Daniel Node

Basking and Daniel are major roadways in the Town of Arnprior. Their intersection in the southwestern parts of Arnprior has attracted numerous businesses on all four quadrants. The town’s largest shopping centres, called Winner’s Circle and Arnprior Shopping Centre, are located at opposite quadrants of this intersection. As well, there are stand-alone stores of varying types and sizes at these quadrants.

1. Winner’s Ci rcle

This shopping centre is anchored by a No Frills supermarket. In early 2014, Ottawa’s Willis College opened a branch in this centre on the 2nd level. Businesses in this centre are as follows:

Table C.2 Winner’s Circle

Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.) Status No Frills Supermarket 22,000 Ontario Chain Asian Dragon Chinese Restaurant 2,500 Independent Gillies Animal Hospital Animal Hospital 2,000 Independent The Source Electronics 2,000 National Chain Herbal Magic Health Foods 2,000 Independent The Prior Sports Bar Restaurant-Bar 2,500 Independent Vacant stores (3) Vacant 7,000 — Total (rounded) 9 40,000 — Vacancy Rate 17.5% —

Retai l Stores = 3 wi th 26,000 sq. f t. Service Businesses = 3 wi th 7,000 sq. f t.

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2. Arnprior Shopping Centre

This is an enclosed shopping centre anchored by a supermarket and a department store. It seems quite dated, has many vacant stores, and needs renovations and/ or re-structuring. The list of stores in this centre is as follows:

Table C.3 Arnprior Shopping Centre (enclosed mall)

Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.) Status Metro Supermarket 40,000 National Chain Fashion Nails Beauty Salon 1,000 Independent TD Trust Bank 2,500 National Chain Hart Department Store 20,000 Ontario Chain Sears Appliance Store 8,000 National Chain Pizza Pizza Fast Food 2,000 National Chain Canadian Tire1 Hardware 20,000 National Chain Videoflicks Movie Rental 3,000 National Chain Mark’s Work Warehouse Clothing 8,000 National Chain Sport Zone Women’s Clothing 2,000 Independent Rick’s Pet Store Pet Store & Grooming 2,000 Independent Valley Vision Optical Store 3,000 Independent Sox Plus Clothing Accessories 1,500 Independent Hair Loom Beauty Salon 1,000 Independent Esteam Electronic Cigarettes 1,000 Independent Shanna Café Restaurant 1,000 Independent Eagle Tax Centre Financial 1,500 Independent Hot Fresh Fries Food Stand 150 Independent Vacant Stores (10) Vacant 24,000 — Total (rounded) 28 152,200 — Vacancy Rate 15.8% —

Retai l Stores = 12 wi th 119,200 sq. f t. Service Businesses = 6 wi th 9,000 sq. f t.

1 Adjacent to the shopping centre

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3. Other Quadrants

There are businesses in the other quadrants of Division-Daniel as follows:

Table C.4 Other Quadrants

Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.) Status McDonald’s Fast Food 5,000 National Chain Subway Fast Food 1,500 National Chain Mac’s Convenience 2,200 National Chain Domino’s Pizza Pizzeria 2,000 National Chain First Choice Haircutters Barber Shop 1,200 Ontario Chain Tim Hortons Coffee Shop 2,000 National Chain Wendy’s Fast Food 2,000 National Chain Enterprise Car Rental Automotive 5,000 National Chain TSC Hardware Hardware 35,000 Ontario Chain Tosh Steakhouse Restaurant 2,000 Independent Slater’s Bakery Bakery 2,000 Independent Car Town Automotive 1,500 Independent M & M Meat Shop 1,500 National Chain Rexall Drugs Pharmacy 11,000 National Chain Murdoch Electric Electric 1,500 Independent Home Hardware Hardware 9,500 National Chain Total (rounded) 16 67,000 — Vacancy 0 0 —

Retai l Stores = 7 wi th 61,300 sq. f t. Service Businesses = 9 wi th 23,200 sq. f t.

Total at 4 Quadrants of D ivision-Daniel Node = 276,500 sq. f t. in 53 businesses Vacant part of the Above = 31,000 sq. f t. in 13 vacancies Vacancy Rate = 11.2%

Retai l Stores = 22 wi th 206,400 sq. f t. Service Businesses = 18 wi th 39,200 sq. f t.

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C. Madawaska East of the River

From the intersection of the Highway 417 ramp and Madawaska Boulevard to the river, the following businesses are on Madawaska Boulevard:

Table C.5 Madawaska East of the River

Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.) Status Ford Auto Dealership1 Automotive 5,800 National Chain Rona Hardware 38,000 National Chain Arnprior Building Supply (part of Rona)

Home Improvement 10,000 Independent

P.J.’s Restaurant Restaurant 2,500 Independent Wes’ Hot Chips Fast Food 100 Independent Scheel Windows Home Improvement 18,000 Independent Tim Hortons Coffee Shop 2,000 National Chain Chevrolet Auto Dealership Automotive 19,000 National Chain Arnprior Chrysler Automotive 1,100 National Chain KFC Fast Food 1,500 National Chain Dairy Queen Fast Food 1,200 National Chain Subway Fast Food 1,500 National Chain The Beer Store Beer 2,000 Ontario Chain East Side Mario’s Restaurant 2,000 National Chain Mama Rosa’s Restaurant 2,000 Independent Valley Roots Butcher 1,500 Independent Fraser’s Towing & Tires Automotive 2,000 Independent Vacant (3 stores) Vacant 5,500 — Subtotal (rounded) 20 115,900 — Vacancy Rate 4.7% —

Retai l Stores = 7 wi th 100,000 sq. f t. Service Businesses = 10 wi th 15,900 sq. f t.

1 Adjacent to the Town of Arnprior and thus considered to be within the effective Primary Trade Area.

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D. Other Businesses

There are also businesses which are stand-alone on different streets in Arnprior. A list of them is as follows:

Table C.6 Other Businesses

Business Name and Location Type Approximate Size (sq. ft.)

Status

LCBO (Daniel-William)

Liquor 6,500 Ontario Chain

Jim’s Auto Glass (Daniel-William)

Automotive 1,500 Independent

Michelson’s Auto Repair (Daniel-William)

Automotive 1,500 Independent

Anderson’s Auto Repair (Daniel)

Automotive 1,300 Independent

Signature Flowers (Daniel)

Flower Shop 1,000 Independent

Main St. Video & Photography (Daniel)

Video Store 1,000 Independent

Cut & Curl (Daniel)

Beauty Salon 1,000 Independent

Pet Value (Daniel)

Pet Store 4,000 National Chain

Centretown Dry Cleaning & Coin Wash

Coin Wash 1,400 Independent

B & J Auto Service & Krown Rust Proofing

Automotive 1,400 Independent

Atrium Truck Shop

Subtotal (12 stores and 55,100 Sq.ft.)

Restaurant, Auto, Gifts

29,500 Independent

Retai l Stores = 3 wi th 11,500 sq. f t. Service Businesses = 9 wi th 38,600 sq. f t.

Source: Shore-Tanner & Associates based on field research, April 2014.

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COMPANY PROFILE: MARKET RESEARCH DIVISION Tel. 613 224-8484 ext.117 Fax. 613 224-8483

Our principals and staff have each been working in the National Capital Region for over 25 years. We have provided consulting services to almost all municipalities in the capital area, most local developers, many independent businesses, developers in other Ontario and Quebec municipalities, the Federal Government, as well as interprovincial and national organizations, such as A & P of Canada, Canadian Wood Counci l , and Canada Lands Company.

SERVICES PROVIDED BY OUR MARKET RESEARCH DIVISION

Public Consultations Sales Forecasting Focus Group Research Financial Analysis Executive Interviews Feasibility Analysis Consumer Surveys Economic Studies Mystery Shopping Strategic Studies OMB Services Business Plan Development

SAMPLE OF PRIVATE SECTOR CLIENTS:

Business Communi ty Retai l Sector Ottawa Congress Centre Rideau Centre Metro Richelieu (Montreal) Glebe BIA The Ottawa Citizen Sparks Street BIA High Technology Companies Legal Fi rms Corel Corporation Gowlings JDS Uniphase Soloway-Wright Cognos (now IBM) GIBSONS LLP Developers Professional Groups GreatWise (Toronto) FoTenn Planning

Page 117

DCR Phoenix Homes SamCon Inc. (Montreal) Urbandale Corporation Padolsky Architects

SAMPLE OF PUBLIC SECTOR CLIENTS:

Municipalities of Ottawa, Clarence-Rockland, Carleton Place, and Brockville; Public Works & Government Services Canada, Infrastructure ON, Canadian Palliative Care Association; University of Ottawa; Algonquin College; Royal Ottawa Hospital; and National Capital Commission.

Page 118

BARRY NABATIAN, A .A.S., B.SC., M .SC. Director: Market Research Division

Tel: 613 224-8484 ext. 117 Fax: 613 224-8483 E-Mail: barry@shore-tanner.com

SPECIALTY OVERVIEW Barry Nabatian specializes in real estate market consulting regarding demand, feasibility, impact, and financial viability studies; retail market, economic, tourism, and business plan developments; consumer research, lifestyle trends and impact of social change on residential, commercial and industrial markets. He is an urban economist and a financial advisor with over 35 years of experience serving a wide variety of private, public and non-profit organizations in Ontario, Quebec, and elsewhere in Canada. He has appeared before the Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) and Assessment Review Boards as an expert witness dozens of times regarding retail, residential, other real estate developments, Official Plans, property taxes and assessment matters. He is an engaging speaker and is frequently interviewed by various media on real estate developments, economics and social trends.

CAREER SUMMARY July 2010 - present Director, Shore-Tanner & Associates

1997 - June 2010 General Manager, Market Research Corporation

1985-1997 Vice-President, Corporate Research Group Limited

1974-1985 Senior Market Analyst, Planning Branch, City of Ottawa

1973-1974 Market Analyst, Decision Sciences Corporation, Philadelphia, U.S.A

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CAREER PROFILE

July 2010 – Present: Director, Market Research Division Under Barry’s direction and full participation, major studies have been completed regarding the impacts of the City of Ottawa’s planned Light Rail Transit (LRT) system on real estate developments; market demand and feasibility of various types of residential, retail, office and industrial development proposals, adaptive re-uses of very large government-owned former health care and industrial properties; business improvement areas, the University of Ottawa’s future space needs; and OMB testimony. These studies have involved sites in the Cities of Ottawa, Brockville, Thunder Bay, and Kingston, Towns of Perth and Casselman (Ontario). A wide variety of quantitative forecasting as well as qualitative research techniques form the basis of these studies, which have dealt with vacant land, as well as brown field developments, demand for built space by type, value, and return-on-investment.

SEPTEMBER 1997 – JUNE 2010: GENERAL MANAGER, MARKET

RESEARCH CORPORATION Barry Nabatian directed and participated in the completion of numerous studies involving market analysis, surveys, economic research, sales forecasting, public consultation, preparation of strategic plans, and policy documentation. These services were provided for a wide variety of private sector, municipal, provincial, federal and crown corporation clients, as well as for educational and health care institutions. As an experienced witness at different court levels, he appeared dozens of times at Ontario Municipal Board hearings, municipal councils, Assessment Review Board, and other public bodies. His approach to problem solving has been based on consensus building, strategic thinking and innovative solutions.

September 1985 – April 1997: Vice-President, Corporate Research Group Limited

Barry directed and contributed to the completion of hundreds of marketing, feasibility, financial and official plan studies related to the office, retail, industrial, and residential markets in Canada and Northeastern USA. Estimation of demand by market segments and time frame, absorption, rental rates, tenant inducements, and pricing strategies were one group of major studies. Another one was site analysis, evaluation and selection, review and/or critique of planning, strategy, and policy documents on behalf of both public and private sector clients. He also developed a number of econometric, simulation, and sales forecasting models for the commercial sector. As well, he appeared as an expert witness before numerous courts, panels of the OMB, the Québec Régie, municipal councils, and other governmental boards and commissions.

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Nov. 1974 – Sept. 1985: Senior Market Analyst, Planning Branch, City of Ottawa

Barry was responsible for the design and implementation of a wide variety of commercial studies (e.g., Rideau Centre), research programs, development of property information systems, policy analysis, and positions for Ottawa City Council. He carried out numerous major office, shopping centre, housing studies and development strategies, with emphasis on the downtown core, including the development of a major database for the Ottawa Greater Central Area. Economic analysis and forecasting for the City were also his responsibilities, and he assisted in the creation of the City’s Economic Development Department.

April 1973 – November 1974: Market Analyst, Decision Sciences Corp., Philadelphia, USA

Barry carried out market feasibility analyses for proposed new satellite communities for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Another major project was the determination of impacts of specific departmental renovations and expansions on total sales of a major supermarket chain with operations in several Northeastern States.

PERSONAL INFORMATION Citizenship: Canadian since 1976 Languages: Fluent in English, Persian, plus some French and Russian Education: May 1973 Masters of Science, Urban Economics and Policy Planning

State University of New York at Stony Brook, U.S.A. Master’s thesis: Truck Routing

May 1971 Bachelor of Science, Physics

State University of New York at Stony Brook, U.S.A. May 1969 Associate of Applied Sciences

New York City Community College Brooklyn, NY, U.S.A.

As well, Barry has completed numerous courses, special training, and attended seminars in the fields of economics and statistics related to real estate markets, lifestyle trends, various consumer products and services, financial and wealth management. He has made numerous presentations and given lectures on these topics to various groups, including at the Real Estate Forum of 2011 in Ottawa with well over 500 attendees. Interests Cooking, swimming, hiking, yoga, dancing, and philosophy.