Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25564...26 Days Till Votes Are Counted; Republican Lewis Closes On DFL Candidate Smith In Bid to Keep Franken's US Senate Seat Blue: ... At a moment

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25564Geography: Minnesota Sponsors:Data Collected: 10/01/2020 - 10/06/2020 All SurveyUSA clients in MinnesotaRelease Date: 10/07/2020Percentages

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25564 - Page 1© 2020 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

Caution : Research conducted at time of extraordinary volatility; all contests fluid, combustible

Minnesota's Coveted 10 Electoral Votes Remain Just Out of Trump's Reach; Biden Up By 7 Points With Early Voting Underway, 26 Days Till Votes Are Counted; Republican Lewis Closes On DFL Candidate Smith In Bid to Keep Franken's US Senate Seat Blue:

At a moment when a pugnacious, mask-defying Donald Trump returns like a conquering hero to the White House and surveys the land from his balcony, a majority of Minnesota voters continue to have an unfavorable impression of the President, with no sympathy groundswell obvious following his 72-hour hospitalization, according to new SurveyUSA tracking research conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

Today, 44% in Minnesota view President #45 "extremely unfavorably," plus another 8% who view the President unfavorably, which combine for 52% negative sentiment, effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago. 39% view the President favorably today.

In an election for President in Minnesota today, incumbent Republican Trump trails Democratic challenger Joe Biden 47% to 40%, a slight but not statistically meaningful change from SurveyUSA'sSeptember poll, when Biden led Trump by 9 points, 49% to 40%.

1 day before the interviews for this survey began, Trump held a rally in Duluth, designed to shore up his support in a region critical to his changes of flipping the state's 10 electoral votes. But 24 hours later, Trump tested positive for the Coronavirus, COVID-19, and many see Trump's decision to speak maskless in Duluth, to a crowd that was not socially distanced, as reckless and irresponsible. Voters in that part of MN? They are unhappy. Trump had led by 24 points in Northeastern MN, which surrounds Duluth, but today leads by just 7, a 17-point swing to Biden.

Trump's repeated warnings to those who live in the suburbs that their way of life will be forever altered if Biden is elected may have some traction. Biden had led by 17 in suburban MN; Trump has cut that lead in half. Trump has also made inroads among middle-income voters, where Biden had led by 18 points but now trails Trump by a nominal 1 point.

Of those who have already voted, Biden leads Trump by more than 4:1. Of those who say they will vote in person on Election Day, Trump leads Biden 5:2. Among white voters, who are 87% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model, Biden had led by 5 points, now by 1.

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, appointed incumbent DFL Democrat Tina Smith may see GOP Challenger Jason Lewis more clearly in her rear-view mirror. Lewis trailed Smith by 11 points 1 month ago but today closes to within 7 points, 44% Smith, 37% Lewis. Among senior citizens age 65+, the most reliable voters in a non-pandemic year, Smith led by 22 points 1 month ago but leads by just 8 points today. Lewis has picked-up 16 points. Trump's top-of-ticket portrayal of what the suburbs will look like if a Democrat is in the White House may be trickling down-ballot. Among suburban Minnesotans, Smith had led by 14 points, but now by just 2.

Of those voting for Trump in 2020, 79% also vote for the Republican Lewis. 7% cross-over and vote for the Democrat Smith. Of those voting for Biden in 2020, 82% also vote for the Democrat Smith. 5% cross-over and vote for the Republican Lewis. Lewis's Net Favorability Rating has dropped from Plus 2 a month ago to Minus 2 today. Smith's Net Favorability Rating has also dropped nominally, from Plus 7 a month ago to Plus 5 today.

About : SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults statewide 10/01/2020 through 10/06/2020. Of the adults, 1,011 are registered to vote in Minnesota. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 929 voters likely to return a ballot on or before the 11/03/2020 deadline. 58% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will vote before Election Day. 39% will vote on Election Day. This research was conducted online among a representative cross section of Minnesota adults. Respondents were weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home-ownership. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by 1.5 percentage points. In 2020, multiple overlapping forces are at work to limit the predictive value of public opinion polls. The manner, timing, and way in which many voters will mark a ballot in 2020 will differ from previous elections. Whether this makes turnout higher than anticipated, lower than anticipated or unchanged is unknowable. Whether there will be systemic voter fraud, as the President fears, or isolated and insignificant fraud, is unknowable. Whether there will be a smooth transition of power is unknowable. As such, this research providesrich and remarkable insight into the state of play in Minnesota at this hour, but may or may not correlate to what "will be" in 26 days.

http://www.surveyusa.com



1 Are you registered to vote in the state of Minnesota?1200 Adults

AllGender Age $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenYes 84% 100% 100% 94% 95% 77% 84% 92% 80% 83% 90% 89% 73% 83% 83% 87% 82% 85%No 13% - - 5% 4% 18% 15% 6% 17% 15% 9% 10% 24% 14% 15% 11% 15% 14%Not Sure 2% - - 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 4% 2% 1% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Adults 100% 37% 44% 34% 33% 32% 36% 32% 30% 37% 32% 72% 28% 20% 52% 27% 26% 26%




1 Are you registered to vote in the state of Minnesota?1200 Adults

AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-2.5 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNYes 84% 85% 89% 78% 84%No 13% 13% 9% 18% 15%Not Sure 2% 2% 2% 4% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Adults 100% 60% 13% 13% 13%

2 Is your opinion of Donald Trump extremely favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Extremely unfavorable? Or, do you have no opinion of Donald Trump?1011 Registered Voters

AllGender Age




AllIdeology Ideology Aggregated Likely Cast Ballot POTUS Vote

Credibility Interval: +/-3.7 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Conser Modera Liberal Almost 100% C Already By Mail Early In Election Trump ( Biden (Extremely Favorable 22% 81% 34% 11% 1% 3% 50% 11% 2% 14% 27% 16% 13% 18% 36% 56% 1%Favorable 17% 12% 35% 19% 2% 0% 28% 19% 2% 21% 20% 3% 11% 20% 20% 36% 1%Neutral 6% 1% 6% 11% 2% 1% 4% 11% 2% 23% 4% 2% 4% 5% 9% 5% 1%Unfavorable 8% 1% 10% 13% 6% 3% 7% 13% 5% 9% 8% 6% 8% 8% 7% 2% 8%Extremely Unfavorable 44% 3% 15% 44% 88% 93% 11% 44% 90% 31% 41% 74% 64% 49% 28% 1% 89%No Opinion 2% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Registered Voters 100% 12% 23% 33% 17% 9% 34% 33% 26% 13% 62% 16% 36% 22% 39% 40% 47%


AllSenate Vote 2016 Vote Education Income Home Urbanicity Suburban

Credibility Interval: +/-3.7 pct points Lewis ( Smith ( Trump Clinton High Sc Some C 4-Year < $40K $40K - > $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenExtremely Favorable 22% 51% 3% 52% 2% 31% 22% 16% 23% 22% 22% 24% 16% 19% 19% 30% 21% 18%Favorable 17% 32% 3% 33% 3% 18% 19% 14% 13% 22% 16% 19% 12% 10% 19% 18% 22% 17%Neutral 6% 4% 3% 5% 3% 6% 9% 4% 6% 9% 5% 5% 10% 6% 7% 7% 6% 8%Unfavorable 8% 6% 8% 5% 8% 6% 8% 10% 7% 7% 10% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 8%Extremely Unfavorable 44% 6% 84% 5% 83% 36% 41% 55% 48% 40% 47% 42% 51% 53% 45% 37% 42% 48%No Opinion 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Registered Voters 100% 37% 44% 38% 37% 30% 36% 35% 29% 37% 34% 76% 24% 20% 51% 28% 25% 26%





AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.7 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNExtremely Favorable 22% 19% 24% 24% 32%Favorable 17% 15% 16% 33% 13%Neutral 6% 7% 7% 7% 6%Unfavorable 8% 9% 7% 6% 9%Extremely Unfavorable 44% 49% 44% 29% 40%No Opinion 2% 2% 3% 1% 0%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Registered Voters 100% 61% 13% 12% 14%

3 Is your opinion of Joe Biden ...?1011 Registered Voters

AllGender Age




AllRegion


4 Is your opinion of Jason Lewis ...?1011 Registered Voters

AllGender Age




AllRegion


5 Is your opinion of Tina Smith ...?1011 Registered Voters

AllGender Age




AllRegion


6 Voters in Minnesota will elect a President and United States Senator in November. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you?1011 Registered Voters

AllGender Age





Credibility Interval: +/-3.6 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Conser Modera Liberal Almost 100% C Already By Mail Early In Election Trump ( Biden (Not Interested 3% 6% 2% 2% 2% 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% - - - - -Not Sure If Time 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% - - - - -Almost Certain 13% 4% 17% 14% 11% 9% 13% 14% 10% 100% 0% 0% 9% 18% 15% 12% 9%100% Certain 62% 74% 69% 66% 52% 66% 71% 66% 57% 0% 100% 0% 55% 61% 84% 80% 60%Already Voted 16% 14% 8% 14% 33% 21% 10% 14% 29% 0% 0% 100% 36% 21% 1% 8% 31%Not Sure 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% - - - - -Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Registered Voters 100% 12% 23% 33% 17% 9% 34% 33% 26% 13% 62% 16% 36% 22% 39% 40% 47%



Credibility Interval: +/-3.6 pct points Lewis ( Smith ( Trump Clinton High Sc Some C 4-Year < $40K $40K - > $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenNot Interested 3% - - 2% 2% 6% 1% 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 5% 8% 2% 1% 2% 2%Not Sure If Time 3% - - 1% 1% 3% 4% 1% 3% 4% 1% 2% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%Almost Certain 13% 12% 7% 11% 8% 16% 14% 9% 15% 14% 10% 12% 16% 8% 14% 16% 12% 15%100% Certain 62% 79% 62% 77% 59% 60% 66% 61% 55% 64% 67% 65% 55% 60% 62% 65% 63% 61%Already Voted 16% 9% 31% 8% 29% 12% 13% 23% 18% 14% 18% 17% 14% 18% 17% 14% 17% 18%Not Sure 2% - - 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 5% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Registered Voters 100% 37% 44% 38% 37% 30% 36% 35% 29% 37% 34% 76% 24% 20% 51% 28% 25% 26%





AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.6 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNNot Interested 3% 2% 5% 5% 2%Not Sure If Time 3% 3% 6% 3% 2%Almost Certain 13% 12% 14% 14% 15%100% Certain 62% 62% 61% 59% 67%Already Voted 16% 19% 13% 13% 9%Not Sure 2% 1% 1% 5% 5%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Registered Voters 100% 61% 13% 12% 14%

7 How are you casting your ballot this year? By mail? In person before election day? Or in person on election day?929 Likely November Voters

AllGender Age





Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Lewis ( Smith ( Trump Clinton High Sc Some C 4-Year < $40K $40K - > $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenBy Mail 36% 23% 48% 23% 48% 34% 33% 40% 44% 33% 32% 35% 38% 36% 36% 35% 31% 40%In Person Before Election Day 22% 23% 23% 22% 24% 23% 18% 26% 16% 23% 25% 22% 21% 22% 25% 17% 27% 22%In Person On Election Day 39% 51% 26% 52% 26% 38% 46% 31% 36% 40% 39% 40% 35% 38% 37% 43% 39% 34%Not Sure 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 3% 3% 6% 3% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 37% 44% 40% 39% 28% 36% 35% 27% 37% 36% 78% 22% 19% 52% 29% 25% 27%


AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNBy Mail 36% 37% 34% 31% 32%In Person Before Election Day 22% 24% 15% 19% 20%In Person On Election Day 39% 35% 49% 43% 42%Not Sure 4% 3% 2% 6% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 62% 13% 12% 13%

8 In the November election for President how do you vote? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or some other candidate?929 Likely November Voters

AllGender Age





Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Conser Modera Liberal Almost 100% C Already By Mail Early In Election Trump ( Biden (Donald Trump (R) 40% 93% 69% 31% 4% 3% 77% 31% 3% 35% 47% 18% 25% 37% 56% 100% 0%Joe Biden (D) 47% 3% 17% 48% 92% 93% 12% 48% 93% 29% 41% 81% 66% 53% 27% 0% 100%Some Other Candidate 3% 1% 3% 7% 2% 1% 2% 7% 1% 5% 4% 0% 2% 3% 4% 0% 0%Undecided 10% 3% 12% 15% 3% 3% 9% 15% 3% 31% 8% 1% 6% 6% 13% 0% 0%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 12% 23% 33% 17% 9% 35% 33% 27% 14% 68% 18% 36% 22% 39% 40% 47%



Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Lewis ( Smith ( Trump Clinton High Sc Some C 4-Year < $40K $40K - > $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenDonald Trump (R) 40% 85% 7% 87% 4% 50% 42% 30% 35% 43% 40% 42% 32% 32% 39% 47% 45% 33%Joe Biden (D) 47% 6% 88% 5% 91% 40% 41% 58% 52% 42% 48% 45% 52% 58% 47% 39% 44% 51%Some Other Candidate 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2%Undecided 10% 7% 4% 8% 5% 10% 12% 8% 10% 12% 8% 10% 11% 6% 11% 11% 8% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 37% 44% 40% 39% 28% 36% 35% 27% 37% 36% 78% 22% 19% 52% 29% 25% 27%


AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNDonald Trump (R) 40% 35% 41% 53% 49%Joe Biden (D) 47% 52% 45% 29% 42%Some Other Candidate 3% 4% 2% 2% 4%Undecided 10% 9% 12% 16% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 62% 13% 12% 13%




9 In the November election for United States Senate, how do you vote?929 Likely November Voters

AllGender Age $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenJason Lewis (R) 37% 100% 0% 75% 4% 42% 38% 31% 30% 38% 41% 40% 26% 26% 40% 39% 45% 35%Tina Smith (DFL) 44% 0% 100% 8% 83% 35% 38% 57% 47% 39% 46% 43% 48% 58% 42% 38% 41% 42%Some Other Candidate 4% 0% 0% 3% 2% 2% 6% 2% 5% 4% 2% 2% 7% 6% 3% 2% 5% 2%Undecided 16% 0% 0% 13% 10% 21% 18% 9% 18% 18% 11% 15% 19% 10% 15% 21% 8% 22%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 37% 44% 40% 39% 28% 36% 35% 27% 37% 36% 78% 22% 19% 52% 29% 25% 27%




9 In the November election for United States Senate, how do you vote?929 Likely November Voters

AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNJason Lewis (R) 37% 36% 32% 36% 46%Tina Smith (DFL) 44% 48% 39% 37% 36%Some Other Candidate 4% 3% 4% 5% 2%Undecided 16% 13% 24% 22% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 62% 13% 12% 13%

10 Who would be better for the economy?929 Likely November Voters

AllGender Age





Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Lewis ( Smith ( Trump Clinton High Sc Some C 4-Year < $40K $40K - > $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenDonald Trump 47% 89% 11% 90% 8% 53% 52% 35% 40% 52% 45% 49% 39% 34% 48% 52% 53% 43%Joe Biden 45% 6% 83% 5% 85% 39% 40% 54% 50% 40% 46% 43% 52% 58% 45% 37% 40% 49%Not Sure 8% 5% 6% 5% 7% 7% 7% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 11% 6% 8%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 37% 44% 40% 39% 28% 36% 35% 27% 37% 36% 78% 22% 19% 52% 29% 25% 27%


AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNDonald Trump 47% 43% 47% 60% 51%Joe Biden 45% 50% 43% 29% 39%Not Sure 8% 7% 10% 11% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 62% 13% 12% 13%

11 Who would keep you safer?929 Likely November Voters

AllGender Age





Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Conser Modera Liberal Almost 100% C Already By Mail Early In Election Trump ( Biden (Donald Trump 42% 94% 69% 36% 5% 3% 78% 36% 4% 39% 50% 17% 24% 38% 63% 93% 1%Joe Biden 50% 4% 21% 51% 92% 97% 15% 51% 94% 41% 44% 80% 68% 57% 30% 3% 97%Not Sure 8% 2% 9% 14% 3% 1% 7% 14% 3% 20% 7% 4% 8% 5% 7% 4% 2%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 12% 23% 33% 17% 9% 35% 33% 27% 14% 68% 18% 36% 22% 39% 40% 47%



Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Lewis ( Smith ( Trump Clinton High Sc Some C 4-Year < $40K $40K - > $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenDonald Trump 42% 85% 7% 86% 5% 48% 48% 31% 37% 47% 42% 44% 35% 31% 43% 49% 46% 39%Joe Biden 50% 9% 88% 9% 90% 43% 45% 60% 53% 46% 52% 48% 56% 61% 51% 41% 48% 53%Not Sure 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 9% 7% 8% 11% 7% 7% 8% 10% 8% 7% 10% 6% 8%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 37% 44% 40% 39% 28% 36% 35% 27% 37% 36% 78% 22% 19% 52% 29% 25% 27%


AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.9 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNDonald Trump 42% 38% 43% 56% 47%Joe Biden 50% 55% 47% 32% 44%Not Sure 8% 7% 10% 12% 9%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 62% 13% 12% 13%




12 Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling the Coronavirus?1200 Adults

AllGender Age





Credibility Interval: +/-3.5 pct points Lewis ( Smith ( Trump Clinton High Sc Some C 4-Year < $40K $40K - > $80K Own Rent Urban Suburb Rural Men WomenStrongly Approve 18% 42% 2% 41% 2% 23% 20% 12% 17% 20% 17% 20% 15% 16% 17% 23% 19% 14%Somewhat Approve 20% 37% 4% 39% 4% 22% 22% 17% 17% 24% 19% 21% 19% 16% 21% 22% 21% 21%Somewhat Disapprove 12% 10% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 13% 11% 11% 14% 12% 11% 10% 13% 11% 14% 12%Strongly Disapprove 44% 8% 84% 9% 84% 37% 42% 55% 47% 39% 48% 43% 49% 52% 46% 36% 42% 50%Not Sure 5% 3% 0% 2% 1% 8% 5% 3% 8% 6% 2% 5% 6% 7% 3% 8% 4% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Adults 100% 37% 44% 34% 33% 32% 36% 32% 30% 37% 32% 72% 28% 20% 52% 27% 26% 26%


AllRegion

Credibility Interval: +/-3.5 pct points Twin Cit S MN W MN NE MNStrongly Approve 18% 17% 15% 25% 23%Somewhat Approve 20% 18% 24% 25% 23%Somewhat Disapprove 12% 12% 14% 9% 10%Strongly Disapprove 44% 49% 44% 27% 40%Not Sure 5% 4% 4% 14% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Composition of Adults 100% 60% 13% 13% 13%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.

: KAAL-TV Rochester-Mason City-Austin, KSTP-TV Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth




Statement of Methodology: SurveyUSA is an independent, non-partisan, apolitical research company that conducts opinion surveys for media, academic institutions, commercial clients, non-profits, governments, agencies, and elected officials. SurveyUSA opinion research is conducted using a methodology optimized for each particular project. In some cases, this means data is collected 100% by telephone; in some cases, 100% online; and in other cases, a blend of the two. For those projects that are conducted “mixed-mode” (or “multi-mode”): Respondents who have a home (landline) telephone are interviewed by phone, sometimes using live interviewers, other times using the recorded voice of a professional announcer. The youngest male is requested on approximately 30% of calls to home phones, the youngest adult is requested on approximately 70% of calls. This method of intra-household selection reduces the potential for age and gender imbalance in the unweighted sample. Re-attempts are made to busy signals, no-answers, and answering machines. Landline telephone sample is purchased from Aristotle of Washington DC. Respondents who do not use a home telephone are interviewed on an electronic device, which means, for some projects, that call-center employees hand-dial cell phones and interview respondents verbally on the respondent’s cell phone, and means, for other projects, that SurveyUSA displays the questions visually on the respondent’s phone, tablet, or other device. Sample for respondents who do not use a home telephone is purchased from Aristotle or from one of several other research companies that provide access to cell respondents. Where meaningful, SurveyUSA indicates the percentage of respondents who use a home phone and the percentage who do not, and crosstabs by this distinction. Responses are minimally weighted to U.S. Census or voter file targets for gender, age and race. Target (cell) weighting is used. On questionnaires that ask about political party identification, SurveyUSA may or may not weight to Party ID, depending on client preference. Where necessary, questions and answer choices are rotated to prevent order bias, recency, and latency effects. On some studies, certain populations are over-sampled, so that the number of unweighted respondents exceeds the number of weighted respondents. Each individual SurveyUSA release contains the date(s) on which interviews are conducted and a release date. If interviewing for a particular study is conducted in Spanish, or in any other foreign language, it will be noted on the specific release. If no notation appears, interviews are conducted in English. Where respondents are filtered, such as adults, filtered to registered voters, in turn filtered to likely voters, SurveyUSA describes the filtering on the specific release. On pre-election polls in geographies with early voting, SurveyUSA differentiates between respondents who have already voted and those who are likely to vote but have not yet done so. On research completed prior to 12/31/16, SurveyUSA assigned to each question within the instrument a theoretical margin of sampling error. Effective 01/01/17, SurveyUSA assigns to each question within the instrument a credibility interval, which better reflects the sampling uncertainties associated with gathering some percentage of respondent answers using non-probability sample. Though commonly cited in the presentation of research results, “sampling error” is only one of many types of error that may influence the outcome of an opinion research study. More practical concerns include the way in which questions are worded and ordered, the inability to contact some, the refusal of others to be interviewed, and the difficulty of translating each questionnaire into all possible languages and dialects. Non-sampling errors cannot be quantified. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure as recommended by the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP). Questions about SurveyUSA research can be addressed to [email protected].

Documents

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25564...26 Days Till Votes Are Counted; Republican Lewis Closes On DFL Candidate Smith In Bid to Keep Franken's US Senate Seat Blue: ... At a moment