Responses of Species to Changes in Climate Determine ...stabilisation.metoffice.com/day1/leemans.pdf · Changes in Climate Determine Climate Protection Targets Species and ecosystems

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Prof. Dr. Rik LeemansEnvironmental Systems Analysis

Responses of Species to Changes in Climate Determine Climate Protection Targets

Species and ecosystems immediately respond to changes in climate and extreme weather events.

Thus many more reasons for concern! Rik Leemans and Arnold van Vliet Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands

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The synthesis figure from IPCC

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The burning embers

1 2 3 4 5

Risks to unique & threatened systems

Risks to some Risks to many

0-0.7

Increase in global mean temperature after 1990 (°C)

White: no or little riskOrange: Incresing risks

Red: Large (dangerous) risks

Observed impacts Simulated impacts

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Widespread ecological impacts visible everywhereVisible in your own ‘backyard’: All species groups and all over the world

Timing of life cycle events (phenology) E.g. start of flowering, bird migration, and insect appearance;

Geographic distribution Increase or decrease in range area

http://www.natuurkalender.nl/ http://www.phenology.org.uk/

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Visible impacts:

The Netherlands:Significant increase in temperature since end of 1980s

19011901

19501950

2003200319881988

(Source: KNMI)

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30-Mar

04-Apr

09-Apr

14-Apr

19-Apr

24-Apr

29-Apr

04-May

09-May

14-May

19-May

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Mean temperature in March and April (°C)

Dat

e

Mean temperature in March and April (°C)

Day

of t

he y

ear

Visible impacts: phenologyStart of flowering Birch in The Netherlands

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Start pollenseizoen Betula

2-Feb

22-Feb

13-Mar

2-Apr

22-Apr

12-May

1-Jun

21-Jun

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Jaar

Warmest February ever (7,6 °C)

+ 24 days

Visible impacts: start & end pollen season

(Source: LUMC)

Start and end of Birch pollen season in The Netherlands

Year

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Visible impacts: timing of appearance and flowering

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Visible impacts: timing of Oak leaf unfolding

(Source: Sparks, http://www.edinburgh.ceh.ac.uk/iccuk/)

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Visible impacts: egg-laying Blue tit

Spring temperature (oC)

Julian DayJulian Day

year

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Visible impacts: distribution of plants

1980 - 2000 in The Netherlands: Total number of plant species: ± 1400 + 10%

Distribution of 700 warmth loving species increased more than onaverage;

Distribution of 188 strong warmth loving species doubled;

Exotic species from outside Europe from the (sub) tropics

41 new thermophylic species officially added to the 2005 flora;

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Visible impacts: distribution of lichenSouthern species: +25%

Northern species: decline

Tropical species: +5%

(Source: Lichenologisch Onderzoeksbureau Nederland)

Number of species (%)

Origin of species

NorthernCool temperate

Warm temperateTropical

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Visible impacts: distribution spiders

Wasp spider (Argiope bruennichi)Number of km blocks

(Source: Van der Linden, 2000)

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Visible impacts: distribution fungi

Plicaturopsis crispa

(Source: NMV)

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Visible impacts: distribution copepods and fish

(Source: Sparks and Reid, http://www.edinburgh.ceh.ac.uk/iccuk/)

Scaldfish (Arnoglossus laterna) Lesser weever fish (Echiichthysvipera)

Individuals per hectare

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Visible impacts: coral bleaching in 1997/1998

(Source: World Resources Institute - PAGE, 2000)

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Visible impacts: distribution of Mountain pine beetle

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Visible impacts: large wildfires

(Source: NASA)

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Visible impacts: decline in birth rate(Source: GRID, UNEP)

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Observed impacts larger than expected

Traditional impact assessments focused on highly aggregated future biomes: approximate shifts of 300 km pole ward for each °C of warming.

Last decade more ecological responses have occurred than expected from the observed average 0.7°C warming trend alone.

Current impact assessments of climate change therefore likely tounderestimate ecological impacts and vulnerability.

Recent studies: focus on individual species => each species responds in a unique way and depict larger and more numerous impacts than the traditional biome studies.

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Faster response to extreme weather

Observed climate change now by far exceeds all natural climate variations of the last 1000 years.

Changes in average weather are largely attributable to significant changes in extremes: fewer cold extremes, more heat waves, heavier precipitation.

Observed responses of species and ecosystems correlate well with the changes in extreme weather events.

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A new burning ember

1 2 3 4 5

Risks to unique & threatened systems

Risks to some Risks to many

0-0.7Increase in global mean temperature after 1990 (°C)

Increase Large increase Risk of extreme weather events

Combined extreme weather and unique & threatened systems

Risks to species & ecosystems

Risks to some but everywhere

Risks to all

Climate protection targets

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Revision climate protection targets urgently needed

IPCC, EU & CBD: Beyond a 2°C increase in global mean surface temperature, adverse impacts rapidly increase.

This study: Most of the studies evaluated by the IPCC (2001) probably underestimate projected future impacts levels.

With continued climate change over the coming decades, natural responses of species and ecosystems will not be adequate for survival, and many ecosystems will rapidly deteriorate.

We recommend a ceiling for global temperature rise of 1.5°C.

BUT: It is equally important to also limit the rate of change to 0.05°C per decade (not a threat to resilience)

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Many more reasons for concern!

Widespread ecological impacts of climate change are visible in every part of the world and in every ecosystem.

Observed ecological changes are larger than expected.

Ecosystems respond faster to changes in extreme weather than to ‘normal’ climate characteristics. This explains the more rapid appearance of ecological responses throughout the world.

Revision of political climate protection targets is urgently needed.

Does Nature Keep Up?

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Responses of Species to Changes in Climate Determine ...stabilisation.metoffice.com/day1/leemans.pdf · Changes in Climate Determine Climate Protection Targets Species and ecosystems