Species distribution modelling, climate change and conservation planning

Joana Magos Brehm, Hannes Gaisberger, Jade Phillips and Nigel

Maxted

Capacity Building Session 1: Plant Species Conservation Planning 1st Mediterranean Plant Conservation Week

“Building a regional network to conserv plants and cultural diversity” 24-29 October 2016, Ulcinj, Montenegro

IN THIS PRESENTATION...

1. Species distribution modeling

oApplications oWhen use SDM? oNiche modeling

oExamples

2. Climate change

o Introduction

o Integrating into conservation planning

APPLICATIONS OF SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING

Conservation: understanding and modeling natural species distribution (e.g. where to conserve?)

Use: understanding and predicting suitability for plant productivity under different types of environments

SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING

Understanding relationships between plants and environment

• Multiple environmental factors

• Ecological responses are not linear with environmental changes

• Biological interactions

• Environmental changes also cause changes in biological interactions

• Intra-specific diversity

Austin (2002, Ecological Modeling)

Bruno et al. (2003, Trends in Ecology and Evolution)

WHEN USE SDM?

•When not all occurrence data sources have been surveyed

•When species’ complete distribution is unknown

NICHE MODELING

Niche modeling (Hutchinson 1957) • Type of SDM Fundamental niche: the range of environmental conditions in which a species can exists indefinitely. Realized niche: the environmental space where species exist interacting with other organisms (plants, herbivorous animals, microorganisms, etc.). • BIOCLIM and MaxENT • Assumptions:

o Equilibrium of the species with its environment (including biological interactions).

o The environmental variables used in the modelling are determinant factors for shaping the distribution of the species.Many times these conditions are not met, however, niche

modeling is a practical tool that gives a good approximation to species natural distribution.

NICHE MODELING

• The quality and quantity of presence data are key to the quality of the model generated.

Papaya (Carica papaya): 104 presence points in Latin America5 26 52 104

NICHE MODELING

•The selection of the environmental variables is crucial

Cherimoya natural distribution prediction (A. cherimola) with 4 different sets of environmental

variables.

MODEL VALIDATION

Statistics • 10-fold average area under the TEST DATA ROC curve (ATAUC)

above 0.7, • Standard deviation of ATAUC (STAUC) below 0.15, • Proportion of potential distribution area with standard deviation

above 0.15 (ASD15) below 10% (Ramírez-Villegas et al. 2010)

MODEL VALIDATION

By experts

Online questionnaire sent to experts to define the Model that most approximates the natural distribution of Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa)

Xavier Scheldeman ©

MODEL VALIDATIONUsing literature information

Natural distribution comparison of P. kesiya modelled in MaxEnt (in purple), and according to USDA, Germplasm Resources Information Network (administrative zones in dark grey)

IDENTIFICATION OF SPECIES’ HOTSPOTS

Observed taxon richness [circular buffer of 50 km (CA50) around each occurrence point for all priority CWR]

Predicted taxon richness [estimated by SDM (for 77 taxa) combined with CA50 (for 36 taxa)]

IDENTIFICATION OF AREAS FOR SPECIES SURVEYING

Triticum dicoccoides (Koern ex Ascher. et Graeb.) Aaronsohn Vicia ervilia ( L.) Willd.

Magos Brehm et al. (2014)

DEFINITION OF COLLECTING AREAS

Capsicum flexuosum • Rare wild chilli species • 18 historical records of the plant • Only one germplasm accession conserved in the USDA • Distributed in forest margins • Suffers deforestation in its distribution area

DEFINITION OF COLLECTING AREAS

Presence Prediction

Forest MarginsRoad Access

Priority Areas for Collection

CLIMATE CHANGE – introduction

“Refers to any change in climate over time,

whether due to natural variability or as a result of human

activity” (IPCC 2007a).

http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2016/07/spiral_may2016.gif

CLIMATE CHANGE – introduction

What does this mean for wild plants? • Loss, expansion, relocation and fragmentation of habitats • Changes in distribution (shifts to higher latitudes and elevations and

towards the poles) • Changes in abundance, phenology and physiology • Disruption of biotic interactions • Thuiller et al. (2005) modelled the impact of different climate change

scenarios on the distribution of 1350 plant species and concluded that more than half of the species are predicted to become either VU, EN or CR by 2080 if unable to disperse. BUT, if taxa are able to adapt through migration, then about 22% would become CR and 2% EX

CLIMATE CHANGE – identifying general patterns

Norwegian 204 priority CWR

Phillips et al. (in prep.)

CLIMATE CHANGE – assess the impact at individual species

Current climate 2080 climate Predicted change

Species range change – further species’ prioritization

Magos Brehm et al. (2014)

CLIMATE CHANGE – assess the impact at individual species

Trifolium boissieri Vicia sericocarpa

SRC = 1.49

SRC = -0.54

CLIMATE CHANGE – evaluation of changes in species richness

Current climate RCP4.5 RCP8.5

CLIMATE CHANGE – What does this shift in species distribution mean for conservation?

In situ:

• Facilitate the movement of taxa (corridors, stepping stones) – connecting reserves

• Conserve the ‘core’ of populations (Arajúo et al. 2004)

Ex situ:

• Collect species/populations negatively impacted by climate change

KEY MESSAGES

• SDM can be used in plant conservation planning (identify species’ hotspots, and areas for field surveying, define collecting areas), • When species distribution is poorly known

• Both quality and quantity is crucial

• Environmental variables influnce the model • Models should be validated

• Climate is changing! • Climate change analysis can be used to identify general patterns, further

prioritize species for conservation, evaluate changes in species richness...)

• Conservation planning should take climate change into account

Species distribution modelling, climate change and conservation planning

Joana Magos Brehm, Hannes Gaisberger, Jade Phillips and Nigel

Maxted

Capacity Building Session 1: Plant Species Conservation Planning 1st Mediterranean Plant Conservation Week

“Building a regional network to conserv plants and cultural diversity” 24-29 October 2016, Ulcinj, Montenegro