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Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived
climate forcers
Maria Sand Terje K. Berntsen, Knut von Salzen, Mark G. Flanner,
Joakim Langner, and David G. Victor
Arc0chaze
WhatareSLCFs?
Gasesandpar0clesthathaveanatmosphericlife0meofafewdaystoadecade.
BLACKCARBON Sootproducedfromcombu0onsources.Absorbssolarradia0on.CO-EMITTEDPOLLUTANTS ~Sulfurdioxide,organiccarboncomponds.ScaFersolarradia0on.OZONE Troposphericozone,airpollutant,harmful.Greenhousegas.
METHANE OtherreportJ
∆T>0
∆T<0 ∆T>0 ∆T>0∆T>0
dzdθ
The direct effect The indirect effect
The ‘semi-direct’ effect
The snow/ice-forcing effect
SW
LW
GlobaltrendsinSLCFsemissions
AMAPBC&O3report,2015
BC OC SO2
NOx nmVOC
Griddedemissions1850-2000Lamarqueetal.(2010).
Goal:AssesstheimpactonArc0cclimateofSLCFemissionsfromdifferentregionsandsectors
Ø Challengingtaskbecauseofsmalld(climate)signalandlargeuncertain0es,especiallyduetocloudindirecteffects
Problem:smallperturba0ons,largevariability
Estimating the climate response
UsingregionaltemperaturesensiKvityfactors:allowsarapidevalua0onofregionalemissionreduc0ons(ShindellandFaluvegi,2009;Shindell2012)
Emissions
ConcentraKons
RadiaKveForcing
TemperatureResponse
Surface temperature response altitude dependent
IncreasedabsorpKonathigheralKtudesintheArc0c(posi0veforcing)couldleadtosurfacecooling.
Flanner,JGR,2013
IncreasedAAOD
IncreasedAAOD
Blueshading:indicatesal0tudeswhereBCisexpectedtocooltheArc0csurface.Redshading:al0tudeswhereBCisexpectedtowarmtheArc0csurface.
Surface temperature response altitude dependent VerKcalprofilesofBCintheArcKcàorigina0ngfromBCemissionsoccurringwithindifferentla0tudebands.
AMAPBC&O3report,2015
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringoil/gas
AMAPBC&O3report,20153%ofglobalBCemiss,33%>60°N,66%>66°N
JAN
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
FEB
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
MAR
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
APR
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
MAY
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
JUN
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
JUL
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
AUG
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
SEP
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
OCT
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
NOV
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
DEC
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
Emissionregions
Canada UnitedStates NordicCountries
SouthEastAsiaRussia Non-Arc0cEurope
Arctic temperature change
1)domes0c2)energy/industry/waste3)Transport4)agriculturalwasteburning5)forestfires6)flaring
1234 56
• Largest sources of warming: – E/S Asia domestic emissions (largely via extra-Arctic forcing) – Russia gas flaring (via Arctic forcing) – ROW domestic emissions (high BC/SO2 emission ratio)
• Largest sources of cooling: – Energy+Industry+Waste emissions (esp. E/S Asia, low BC/SO2 emission ratio)
• Fire emissions are near climate-neutral because of low BC/OC emission ratio
Sandetal.,NCC,2015
Arc0csurfacetemperaturechange
4
‘Bang for the buck’ • High-latitude sources (Russia,
Nordic, Canada) have largest impact by this measure
• Warming from BC stands out because of its large radiative efficiency
Sandetal.,NCC,2015
Mitigation potential
Global mitigation scenario for SLCFs – all emission mitigation measures with both a
beneficial air quality and short-term climate impact
– focused on mitigation options that resulted in a global net cooling (using the GTP20 metric).
– 2015 … 2050 Derived from model-mean equilibrium dT’s and impulse response functions (Boucher and Reddy, 2008)
1)domes0c2)agriculturalwasteburning3)energy/industry/waste4)transport
Volkswagen
Sandetal.,NCC,2015
Mi0ga0onpoten0alArc0csurfacetemperatures