Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River Urban Water Institute’s 21 st Annual Conference August 14, 2014

Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River

Urban Water Institute’s 21st Annual ConferenceAugust 14, 2014

Natural FlowColorado River at Lees Ferry Gaging Station, Arizona

Water Year 1906 to 2014

State of the System (Water Years 1999-2014)1

109%

62% 59%

25%

52% 49%

104%

71% 70%

102%88%

73%

139%

45% 47%

94%

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Unregulated Inflow into Lake PowellPowell-Mead Storage and Percent Capacity

Powell and Mead Storage (MAF) Unregulated Inflow into Powell (MAF) Powell and Mead Percent Capacity2

1 Values for Water Year 2014 are projected. Unregulated inflow is based on the CBRFC forecast dated 8/1/14. Storage and percent capacity are based on the July 2014 24-Month Study.

2 Percentages at the top of the light blue bars represent percent of average unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for a given water year. Water years 1999-2011 are based on the 30-year average from 1971 to 2000. Water years 2012-2014 are based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010.

Water Year Snowpack and Precipitationas of August 11, 2014

Colorado River Basin above Lake Powell

Water Year 2014

Precipitation

(year-to-date)

99% of average

Current Snowpack

NA

Chart developed with SNOTEL data as of

August 11, 2014Snowpack peaked at 111%on April 7, 2014

Basin StorageAs of

8/3/2014

52%67%

80%

88%

100%

5

ReservoirA-J Inflow Forecast

(KAF)

Percent of Average1

Fontenelle 1,020 141%

Flaming Gorge 1,159 118%

Blue Mesa 849 126%

Navajo 428 58%

Powell 6,923 97%

April to July Observed Unregulated Inflow

(Issued August 1)

Upper Basin Storage

1 1981-2010 period

http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/tc_cr.html

Colorado River Basin Storage (as of August 10, 2014)

Current Storage Percent Full MAF Elevation

(Feet)

Lake Powell 51% 12.49 3,608

Lake Mead 38% 10.03 1,080

Total System Storage* 51% 30.40 NA

*Total system storage was 30.10 maf or 50% this time last year

1,000

1,025

1,050

1,075

1,100

1,125

1,150

1,175

1,200

1,225

Ele

vati

on

(ft

)

January 1937 - July 2014

Lake Mead End of Month Elevation

Spillway Crest 1221 ft

July 201439% of Capacity

September 199995% of Capacity

Lake Mead is currently at its lowest elevation of 1,080.60 feet since it was first filled inthe 1930s.

Lake Mead's previous lowest elevation since filling was 1,081.85 feet in November 2010.

During the 1950s drought, Mead reached a low of 1,083.23 feet in April 1956.

Spillway Crest 1221 ft

Water Budget at Lake Mead

Given basic apportionments in the Lower Basin, the allotment to Mexico, and an 8.23 maf release from Lake Powell, Lake Mead storage declines

Inflow = 9.0 maf(release from Powell + side inflows)

Outflow = - 9.6 maf (AZ, CA, NV, and Mexico delivery + downstream regulation and gains/losses) Mead evaporation loss = - 0.6 maf Balance = - 1.2 maf

Data based on long-term averages


109%

62% 59%

25%

52% 49%

104%

71% 70%

102%88%

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45% 47%

94%

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109%

62% 59%

25%

52% 49%

104%

71% 70%

102%88%

73%

139%

45% 47%

94%

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20%

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70%

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QSA-RELATED WATER TRANSFERS

CALIFORNIA

IID to MWD:Up to 110,000 af/yr

IID to Salton Sea Mitigation:Up to 150,000 af/yr through 2017

IID to CVWD:Up to 103,000 af/yr

IID&CVWD to SLR:Up to 16,000 af/yr

IID to SDCWA: Up to 200,000 af/yr +56,200 af/yr from AAC Lining

CVWD to SDCWA: 21,500 af/yr from CCLP

LOWER COLORADO RIVER MSCP PURPOSE

Multi-stakeholder Federal and non-Federal partnership responding to the need to balance the use of lower Colorado River (LCR) water resources and the conservation of native species and their habitats in compliance with the Endangered Species Act.

Interim Guidelines for Operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead

• In place for an interim period (through 2026)

• Key provisions:– Operation for Lake Powell and Lake

Mead is specified throughout the full range of operation

– Strategy for shortages in the Lower Basin is specified, including a provision for additional shortages if warranted

– Mechanism (Intentionally Created Surplus or ICS) is established to encourage efficient and flexible water use in the Lower Basin

Lake Powell & Lake MeadOperational Diagrams and Current Conditions

8/10/14

1,080

8/10/14

10.03

8/10/14

3,608 12.498/10/14

Minute 319• 5-year interim bi-national

agreement

• Promotes sharing, conserving and storing water

• Demonstrates shared commitment to cooperation and partnership

• Components include:– Ability to defer delivery of

water/ICMA – High/low reservoir operation– Water for the Environment-

ICMA->ICS Exchange Pilot– Study of future joint projects

November 20, 2012 Signing Ceremony

Projected Future Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand


109%

62% 59%

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52% 49%

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71% 70%

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Lower SNWA Intake1,000 ft

1,080 ft 10.03 maf(38% of Live Capacity)

895 ft Dead Pool Elevation

Lake Mead Capacity1,219.6 ft 26.1 maf

Dead Pool (2.5 maf)

Inactive Pool (7.7 maf)

Not to scale

140 ft

As of Aug 10, 2014

1,145 ft

30 ft1,075 ftShortage Conditions

1,050 ft

Surplus Conditions

Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions

Min PowerPool

16.2 maf

Risk

• Risk can be viewed as the chance (or probability) an event will occur times the consequence if the event does occur risk = chance X consequence

• To quantify the risk of an event: Must assess the chance Must assess the consequence

• Dealing with risk Determine what risks need to be mitigated (i.e., what is

our tolerance of the assessed risk?) Determine activities/actions that will mitigate those risks Update as the future unfolds

2008 start, observed hydrology (FEIS)

Mead Elevation < 1,000 feet msl

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260%

10%

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2008 Start, Observed Hydrology (Basin States Alternative from 2007 FEIS)

2015 Start, Observed Hydrology

2015 Start, Climate Change Hydrology

Drought Contingency Planning

Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River

Documents

Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River Urban Water Institute’s 21 st Annual Conference August 14, 2014