Residential LightingTechnical Subcommittee

Ryan FirestoneRegional Technical Forum

March 26, 20159-11 AM

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Overview

• RTF Residential UES measure is due for an update– Sunset date June 30, 2015

– New ENERGY STAR specification v1.1. (September, 2014) – technology neutral

– New market data (NEEA/BPA)

– Estimates of extent and impact of Commercial participants in retail programs (SBW/PSE/NorthWestern Energy)

3 Presentation OutlineToday’s Objective: The purpose of this call is for the Subcommittee to provide input on the analysis methodology and assumptions for the residential lighting (bulbs) update that will be presented to the RTF at the June 16 meeting.

• Measure identifiers - – shifting to EISA lumen bins– keeping lamp type categories the same as current measure

• Baseline perspective - shifting from a socket count (RBSA) baseline to sales data and accounting for large differences in lifetime across technologies

• Overview of BPA/NEEA baseline methodology (deeper dive in second half of meeting)• EISA 2020 - Phase 2 of the standard (45 lumen/Watt)

– What to assume halogens in today's current practice baseline become in 2020 (hypothetical minimally compliant lamp? CFL?)

– adjusting the baseline for savings from 2020 onward

• Hours of Use (Residential) – shifting from California data to RBSA• Commercial participants in retail programs

– review of available data and knowledge gaps– sensitivity of results to the extent of Commercial participation

• Lamp costs– review of current measure costs and available data for update

• Extrapolating LED cost and performance to expected time measure will be in use (10/15 – 10/16 for BPA)• Lifetime

– review of RTF decision on modeling the effect of stored lamps for current measure

• Details of the BPA/NEEA sales-based baseline

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Measure Identifiers

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Lumen Bins• The RTF’s current measure uses the following lumen bins

– 250 to 664 lumens– 665 to 1439 lumens– 1440 to 2600 lumens

• However, the EISA standard uses the following lumen bins– less than 310 lumens– 310 to 749 lumens– 750 to 1049 lumens– 1050 to 1489 lumens– 1490 to 2600 lumens

• RTF Staff/CAT will be preparing the measure update using the EISA lumen bins.

• Measures for the 0-310 lumen category will be developed, as this is an EISA exempt category with low efficient lamp saturation.

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Lamp Types• As part of the April 2014 Residential Lighting measure update, Staff/CAT consider lamp

type categorization and developed the following:– Decorative and Mini-Base– General Purpose and Dimmable– Globe– Reflectors and Outdoor– Three-Way

• Staff/CAT demonstrated that further aggregation could lead to significant variation in actual savings depending on the program mix of lamp types

– E.g., number of globe vs. decorative lamps• Staff/CAT will prepare the measure update using the same lamp type categories

• RTF presentation April 23, 2014 http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2014/04/Residential_Lighting_CFLandLED_2014_04_23%20v18.pptx

• Subcommittee presentations from March 2014http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/reslighting/meetings.htm

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Delivery Mechanisms

• Delivery Mechanisms– Retail– Mail by Request– Unsolicited Mail– Give away– Direct Install– NEEA Socket Count

Lost opportunity (Current practice)

Retrofit (Pre-conditions)

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Room Type Groups (Direct Install and NEEA Socket Count only)

• Hours of Use (HOU) and Room Type Groups– Current measure uses KEMA data from CA, supplemented by DOE data– Propose using RBSA metered data– Significantly Higher HOU for Family/Kitchen/Living Room suggests separating

High and Moderate Use room type groups.

Daily HOURoom Type Group

Daily HOURoom Type Group

Exterior 3.7 Exterior 3.8 Exterior

Family Room 3.3 2.3Kitchen 3.6 2.4Living Room 2.8 2.3Basement/Utility Room 0.8 1.6Bedroom 1.4 1.5Dining Room 1.9 1.7Garage 1.1 1.8Laundry Room 1.5 1.5Master Bedroom 1.1 1.5Bathroom 1.2 1.3Hall 2 1.3Office 1.8 1.3Closet 0.08 1.4Other 0.21 1.5

Current - KEMA (CA) 2010 and DOE 2010

Moderate and High Use

Low Use

Low Use

Moderate Use

High Use

Proposed - RBSA

Room Type

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Baseline Perspective

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Baseline: Shift from sockets to sales• Current RTF measure uses a socket count (RBSA) as

baseline• Proposed measure will use a sales baseline

• We expect a significant difference in baseline between these two types of data because of differences in lifetime across technologies– Inc/hal (1,000 hrs), CFL (5,000 to 10,000 hrs), LED (25,000 to

30,000 hrs)– Sales data should show proportionally more

incandescent/halogens than socket count because they burn out much quicker than CFLs and LEDs.

Baseline: Shift from sockets to sales• Do we need to adjust the sales data to account for this

variation in lifetime?• Depends on your perspective

Perspective

There are inc/hal sockets and CFL/LED sockets. Inc/hal are primarily replaced by inc/hal, CFLs/LEDs are primarily replaced by CFLs/LEDs.

Replacement lamp type is independent of prior lamp type. Each time a consumer purchases a lamp, they make a new decision about what type of lamp to purchase.

What this implies

Halogen sockets are converted to CFL/LED sockets through program intervention and/or other signals. CFL/LED sockets are rarely converted to halogen sockets.

A halogen replacement lamp is just as likely in a socket with a burnt-out halogen as with a burnt out CFL.A CFL replacement lamp is just as likely in a socket with a burnt out halogen as with a burnt out CFL.

How current practice is determined

Socket count (e.g., RBSA). This tells you how many halogen sockets and how many CFL sockets there are.

Sales data. This tells you how many times a decision was made to fill a socket (after correcting for serial installation, which we now think isn't common), and how frequently halogen was selected and how frequently CFL was selected.

This is effectively a socket count of recently filled sockets.

Comments

This is how the RTF treats other Current Practice measures: each recent sale is a decision, and distribution of sales is used to determine the average performance and cost of these choices.

RTF CAT/staff lean towards this perspective, for consistency with other RTF measures

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BPA/NEEA Sales-based Baseline

BPA/NEEA Sales-based Baseline• Data

– Sales data of major retailers from Neilsen in 2014– NEEA Shelf survey (January 2015)– Estimates of market share by store category (analysis based on data from 2014 ENERGY

STAR Partners meeting)– Estimates of market share by retailer based on NW store count and number of lamps

displayed per store– Sales data use for retailers where available. Supplemented with shelf survey data.– Analysis by Cadeo Group for Bonneville, on going

If the sales analysis from BPA/Cadeo Group is not available in time or in sufficient detail for the measure update, the Staff/CAT can use the shelf-survey data as a proxy.

Store CategoryCategory Share of Market

RetailerRetailer share

within Category

Retailer share of Market

A 58% 30%B 32% 16%C 10% 5%D 57% 10%E 18% 3%F 10% 2%G 15% 3%H 84% 14%I 16% 3%

Drug, Grocery and Small Hardware

15% Other 100% 15%

Home Center

Mass Merchandise

Club Stores

51%

17%

17%

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EISA 2020

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EISA 2020: 45 lumens/Watt• Phase 2 of the EISA lighting standards effective in 2020

– 45 l/W for all non-exempt lamps

• What should the baseline be from 2020 onward?– Federal standard (45 l/W, 1,000 hour lifetime)

• No product exists on the market with these specifications

– Lowest cost/worst performing compliant technology (CFL – 65 l/W, ~5,000 hours lifetime)

Efficacy

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EISA 2020: Modelling in measure workbook• The current version of ProCost does not have the capability to model stepped

savings (i.e., one savings value until 2020, a smaller one from 2020 onward)

• RTF CAT/Staff proposed approach– Do two ProCost runs:

• One from present to 2020

• One from 2020 onward

– Compute overall cost effectiveness from total TRC Costs and total TRC Benefits

– In the measure table, • show the average annual savings over the lifetime of the measure

• Add additional columns to show savings from 2016 to 2019, savings from 2020 onward

– Add an explanation sheet at the beginning of the workbook to explain the stepped shape of savings

– In this way, the RTF provides programs with first year savings, out-year savings, average lifetime savings, and cost-effectiveness. Programs can determine which savings values are appropriate for them.

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Hours of Use

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Hours of Use (Residential)

• Current RTF measures use hours of use (HOU) measured in California in 2008/2009– 8452 fixtures at 1233 sites

– “Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program Volume 1” CALMAC Study ID: CPU0015.01

– http://www.calmac.org/publications/FinalUpstreamLightingEvaluationReport_Vol1_CALMAC_3.pdf

• Hours of use, by room type, are applied to each lighting record in RBSA to determine average hours of use by lamp type/lumen bin

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Hours of Use (Residential)

• RBSA study included lighting hours of use metering– http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/residen

tial-building-stock-assessment--metering-study.pdf?sfvrsn=6

– NEEA, April 28, 2014 REPORT #E14-283 Residential Building Stock Assessment: Metering Study

– 874 fixtures

• Staff/CAT propose using this more recent data, from the region, rather than the California data.

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Hours of Use (Residential)

Source: NEEA, April 28, 2014 REPORT #E14-283 Residential Building Stock Assessment: Metering Study

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Commercial Participants in Retail Programs

Accounting for Commercial Participants• Some lamps sold through retail, upstream programs are going to

commercial customers• How do we account for this in our retail measures?

– Data:• PSE/SBW/RIA

– Phone survey of 46 high-volume participating retailers in upstream program (74% of program volume)

– 22% of CFLs, 20% of LEDs sold to commercial customers– Adjust for less commercial sales at lower volume retailers: 17% CFLs, 20% LEDs

• NorthWestern Energy/SBW/RIA– Phone survey of 8 CFL buy-down participants– 19% commercial sales

• BPA/SBW Commercial Lighting– Research Plan for Commercial: Lighting - Non-Residential Lighting Retrofits UES measure:– http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/protocols/com/NonResLightingRetrofitsResearchPlan_V1.docx

• NEEA – CBSA– 580 observations of screw-based fixtures in buildings, count of fixtures in subspace,

weighting up to site and region– Data quality concerns need to be addressed: some estimated lumens per lamp and hours

of use values are suspect

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Accounting for Commercial Participants• Consider weighted average hours of use for General Purpose lamp, 750-1049 lumens.

– Residential hours of use: 2.0 hrs/day (analysis based on RBSA socket count and metered study)

– Commercial hours of use: vary from 0 to 10 hrs/day

– Commercial share of participation: vary from 0 to 20%Likely range of resulting hours of use is between 2.0 and 3.2.

This is 2.6 +/- 23%.

Savings are directly proportional to HOU

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Accounting for Commercial Participants– Likely effect is large, but uncertain

• What is the baseline for commercial screw-base lamps?– CBSA provides a socket count, but would require data cleaning/QC before being useful

– CBSA does not tell us which lamps were purchased from residential-oriented retailers

• What portion of sales are they, by lamp type and lumen bin?– SBW has looked at this at the program level, not finer detail

• What are the hours of use of these lamps, by lamp type and lumen bin?– Ongoing BPA Commercial Lighting research may eventually inform this

– Without quantifying this effect, we don’t have the certainty needed for a Proven retail measure

• CAT/Staff are preparing a Research Strategy to address this knowledge gap and support a Planning measure

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Lamp Costs

Lamp Costs• Baseline lamps costs: NEEA shelf data (January 2015),

data not yet available

• Measure Cost: Idaho Power program data (Q1 2015)

Lamp Type 310-749750-1049

1050-1489

1490-2600

250 to 664

lumens

665 to 1439

lumens

1440 to 2600

lumens

Three-Way (based on highest lumen level) $21.50 $18.19 $33.00Decorative and Mini-Base $15.99 $10.10 $18.08 $44.00General Purpose and Dimmable $10.17 $11.17 $17.24 $19.50 $5.05 $9.04 $22.00Globe $10.11 $6.68 $9.04 $22.00Reflectors and Outdoors $16.67 $22.90 $27.13 $26.96 $21.50 $18.19 $33.00

Three-Way (based on highest lumen level) $10.47 $13.45 $12.55 $10.78 $12.55Decorative and Mini-Base $3.46 $5.49 $3.46 $2.42 $3.46General Purpose and Dimmable $2.96 $3.15 $3.88 $3.78 $2.19 $1.47 $1.92Globe $5.80 $5.99 $1.71 $5.08 $5.08Reflectors and Outdoors $5.11 $6.86 $8.43 $4.67 $3.16 $9.99

LED

CFL

Lumen RangeIdaho Power Current RTF Measure

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Extrapolating LED Cost and Performance Data to Time of

Implementation

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LED Cost and Performance Extrapolation• Current measure (RTF approved in April 2014) includes extrapolation of

existing LED cost and performance data to time of measure implementation to reflect the rapidly changing market

• Staff/CAT propose to use same approach this time

Sources:Efficacy: “SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning” PNNL 2013

Cost: "Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications” Navigant Consulting for US DOE, August 2014

RTF Lamp Type

2014 to 2016

adjustment

2015 to 2016

adjustment

2014 to 2016

adjustment

2015 to 2016

adjustmentReflectors and Outdoor 1.14 1.06 0.70 0.84General Purpose and Dimmable 1.08 1.04 0.67 0.82Three-way 1.08 1.04 0.67 0.82Decorative and Mini-Base 1.25 1.07 0.62 0.79Globe 1.08 1.04 0.67 0.82

Efficacy Cost

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Lifetime

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Storage Rate Slides from October 2013 CFL Presentation

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/10/CFLs_RTF_2013_10%20v20.pptx

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Accounting for Storage Rate

• To date, the RTF has not counted savings for energy efficient equipment that is installed later on.

• But there is evidence that most CFLs eventually get installed, probably within a few years of purchase or receipt.

• How should the RTF account for stored-but-eventually-used products?

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Storage Rate – Lifetime Guidelines1.2.2. Measure Lifetime• Measure lifetime is defined as the median number of years during which at

least half the deliveries of a measure are in place and operable, i.e., produce savings. Measure lifetime should not be confused with a measure’s sunset date, which is the period during which a measure’s savings estimation method is RTF-approved.

2.3.1. Factors Affecting Lifetime• Many factors may have a substantial impact on measure lifetime. All

substantial factors should be considered in the estimation. A factor is substantial if it would increase or decrease the measure lifetime by at least 20%.

• Factors that may be relevant to measure lifetime include, but are not limited to, the following.– Program delivery method. Measures directly installed may last longer than measures

delivered via mail for self-install, because self-installers may be less skilled and may not install according to manufacturer expectations, such as appropriate placement.

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Storage Rate – CFL Failure

• Lamps installed right away (e.g., direct install)

Source: Review of Massachusetts tracking data. Lynn Hoefgen et al., 2013, “Study It ‘til You’re Sick of It: CFL Research as an Example of Other Efficiency Markets”, 2013 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference.

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Storage Rate – CFL Failure

• But not all retail lamps get installed right away

Assumes that 24% of lamps are installed at time of receipt, and 8% of lamps are installed in each of the subsequent 3 years.

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Storage Rate – CFL Failure

• But not all retail lamps get installed right awayNote:1) Installation rate

increases in first few years

2) But some lamps installed in the first couple of years are already failing

3) The lifetime of the retail measure (6.1) is longer than that of the direct install measure (5.5).

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Storage Rate – Savings GuidelinesRoadmap 1.3.2. Savings• “Savings is defined as the difference in energy

use between the baseline (see section 3.2) and post (after measure delivery) periods, which is caused by the delivery of a measure.”– Not clear on how to specify savings with unusual

decay functions.– Historically, RTF has used first year savings, except

for Last Measure In (LMI) measures.

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Storage Rate – Questions• What should the savings value represent?

– First year savings?– Maximum savings before end of EUL?– Average savings from measure start until death of last unit?– Something else?

• The answer to this should inform how to handle storage rates for CFLs, where we – know the patterns of failure overtime, and – think we know when stored bulbs eventually get used

• Staff proposal: – Use first year savings– Use failure and installation patterns to estimate median time to 50% installation. This complies with

the Guidelines.– Guidelines Issue: This does not lead to the correct lifetime savings (savings x EUL).

[RTF approved this proposal at the October 2013 RTF meeting]

• Staff also received a proposal to disregard storage rate because the stored lamps tend to get installed within a few years. This has been discussed at previous RTF meetings.

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Derating CFL and LED Lifetime

• Switching effects on CFL lifetime• “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switching on CFL Measure Life”

Corina Jump, James J. Hirsch, Jane Peters, and Dulane Moran, 2008 ACEEE Summer Study

Room TypeN Loggers Low (E) Middle (C1,E)High (C1) N Loggers Low (E) Middle (C1,E)High (C1)

All Room Types 585 0.491 0.526 0.561 447 0.486 0.521 0.556 Bathroom 89 0.210 0.257 0.304 71 0.220 0.266 0.312 Bedroom 138 0.430 0.467 0.505 102 0.418 0.456 0.494 Family Room 59 0.664 0.692 0.720 52 0.670 0.698 0.725 Garage 12 0.434 0.472 0.510 11 0.440 0.478 0.515 Hall 42 0.387 0.426 0.465 31 0.387 0.426 0.465 Kitchen 82 0.547 0.580 0.612 53 0.492 0.527 0.562 Laundry Room 20 0.299 0.343 0.386 17 0.285 0.329 0.373 Living Room 128 0.708 0.734 0.760 96 0.724 0.749 0.774 Other 15 0.472 0.508 0.543 14 0.476 0.511 0.547

Table 4: Average Normalized CFL Lamp Life for Monitored Lamps, by LocationAll Homes Single Family Detached

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Derating CFL and LED Lifetime

• Switching effects on CFL lifetime• “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switching on CFL Measure Life”

Corina Jump, James J. Hirsch, Jane Peters, and Dulane Moran, 2008 ACEEE Summer Study

Room TypeN Loggers Low (E) Middle (C1,E)High (C1) N Loggers Low (E) Middle (C1,E)High (C1)

All Room Types 585 0.491 0.526 0.561 447 0.486 0.521 0.556 Bathroom 89 0.210 0.257 0.304 71 0.220 0.266 0.312 Bedroom 138 0.430 0.467 0.505 102 0.418 0.456 0.494 Family Room 59 0.664 0.692 0.720 52 0.670 0.698 0.725 Garage 12 0.434 0.472 0.510 11 0.440 0.478 0.515 Hall 42 0.387 0.426 0.465 31 0.387 0.426 0.465 Kitchen 82 0.547 0.580 0.612 53 0.492 0.527 0.562 Laundry Room 20 0.299 0.343 0.386 17 0.285 0.329 0.373 Living Room 128 0.708 0.734 0.760 96 0.724 0.749 0.774 Other 15 0.472 0.508 0.543 14 0.476 0.511 0.547

Table 4: Average Normalized CFL Lamp Life for Monitored Lamps, by LocationAll Homes Single Family Detached

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Derating CFL and LED Lifetime

• LEDs– Switching does not appear to be an issue

– Lumen depreciation is the mode of failure that lifetime ratings are based on

– Rapidly evolving products make long test periods impractical

– RTF has historically capped the lifetime of LEDs to 12 years to address uncertainty in actual product performance and real-world factors (break, remodel)

– Staff/CAT recommend no change

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Discussion

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Bonneville/NEEA/Cadeo GroupSales-based Baseline