Research Program Overview

From the University of California, Davis

H2

STEPS Program Goals & Objectives

• The overarching goal of the program

Develop methods that allow for robust comparisons of different fuel / vehicle pathways.

• The objectives of the program are

Comparative analysis research. Conduct independent, interdisciplinary research on multiple pathways

Knowledge dissemination. Communicate research to sponsors, scientific community, and policy makers

Education. Educate next generation of engineers, scientists, business and policy decision-makers

Addressing Transportation Energy Challenges

Transportation Efficiency• Vehicle fuel economy

• Congestion relief

• Road design

• Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)• Carpooling

• Mass transit

• Urban design

Alternative Fuels & Vehicle Technology• Hydrogen

• Biofuels

• Electric drive vehicles

• Advanced ICE engines

• Low-carbon liquid fuels

STEPS Focus

Climate change, Air quality, Energy security, Peak oil

Research Scope: Cross Comparisons

HYDROGEN

• Fuel Cell Vehicles

• H2-ICE Vehicles

Project Areas: Markets, Infrastructure, Lifecycle Analysis, Policy, Vehicle Technology

BIOFUELS

• Bio-ICE Vehicles

• Hybrid Vehicles

ELECTRICITY

• Battery-electric

• Plug-in hybrids

FOSSIL FUELS

• Business as usual

• Low-carbon cases

Hydrogen Biofuels Electricity Fossil Fuels

Markets and Behavior

Infrastructure System Analysis

Energy, Environ., & Cost Analyses

Policy and Business Strategy

Vehicle Performance Evaluation

Integrative Scenarios

Continuing hydrogen research - ; Existing experience at UC Davis - ; Potential new research -

Research Scope: Project Areas

3 Levels of Comparative Analysis

Characterize future scenarios and opportunities

Integrate a broader range of factors and interactions

Apply consistent metrics of comparison

Comparison Metrics

System Integration

Transition Analysis

“Silver Bullet” Theories

• There is no such thing as a “silver bullet” or one answer for the transportation energy challenges

• The real comparative questions are:

What are viable near-term solutions?

What are viable long-term solutions and what commitment is needed now?

How can near-term solutions leverage long-term solutions?

Which solutions work well in tandem given there won’t be one answer?

What policy and/or market signals are needed to move society in this direction?

• STEPS will address this with independent research

Research Approach

• Develop analysis tools with ability for cross comparison

• Publish research and present findings; Make assumptions public and visible

• Independent research projects, but with requirement that they incorporate cross-comparison aspects

• Integrative Scenarios thread will study the combined perspective, and will incorporate results and themes from the independent projects

Unique Aspects of STEPS

• Comparative & Interdisciplinary analysis

• Strong analytic capacity for integrative research

• Leverage from other energy research at UC Davis

• Active engagement with policy development at the state and federal level

• Research consortium, good relationship with sponsors

Program Sponsorship

Energy Industry• BP

• Chevron

• Shell Hydrogen

• PG&E

• TOTAL

Automotive Industry• BMW

• DaimlerChrysler

• Ford

• General Motors

• Honda

• Nissan

• Subaru

• Toyota

• Volkswagen

Government• Caltrans

• NRCan

• US EPA

• US DOE

• US DOT

Consortia Based Funding• Consortium structure developed over the last 10

years at ITS

• Allows for great flexibility in research structure

One can “jump in” to a research topic, rather than changing scope of contract

Facilitates interaction amongst varying industries

• Sponsor contribution leverages all other sponsors in the program – i.e. research dollars are multiplied by 20X

Sample STEPS Projects• Consumer behavior Thread

What is the consumer response to fuel economy?

Vehicle demonstrations

Meaning of “green”

• Business Strategy and Policy Thread

Study of business adaptation under particular transition pathway, and the policy that will encourage that change

Incentives for firms under and LCFS

Sample Projects, Con’t• Vehicle Design Thread

Development of cross-comparison simulation tools

Detailed cost analysis / predictions for advanced vehices

• Infrastructure System Analysis Thread

Builds on H2P research

Spatial analysis, build-out scenarios

Modeling, analysis of infrastructure across varying pathways, including analysis of existing infrastructure

Research Projects, Con’t• Energy, Environmental, and Cost Analysis

Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM)

• The Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM) calculates lifecycle emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse-gases from a wide range of fuels, vehicles, materials, and transportation modes.

Lifetime social cost and energy-use model (AVCEM)

• The Advanced Vehicle Cost and Energy-Use Model (AVCEM) calculates the lifetime private and social cost of a wide range of advanced alternative-fuel and electric vehicles.

Social-cost calculator (SCC)

• The Social-Cost Calculator (SCC) calculates the external and social costs of transportation plans involving gasoline and diesel trucks and buses.

Research Projects, Con’t• Integrative Scenarios Thread

Large-scale, broad scope models

Analysis of LCFS impact

Will study many different options to achieve LCFS goal of reduced carbon impact

Research Area LeadershipHydrogen

Joan Ogden

Biofuels

Bryan Jenkins

Electricity

Tom Turrentine

Fossil Fuels

CynthiaLin

Demand and Behavior

Ken KuraniInfrastructure System Analysis

Chris Yang, Yueyue FanEnergy, Environ., & Cost Analyses

Mark DelucchiPolicy and Business Strategy

Chris KnittelVehicle Performance Evaluation

Andy BurkeIntegrative Scenarios

Marc Melaina

Tracks

Threads

Threads: “Cross-Comparison” Focus

Tracks: “Interdisciplinary” Focus

Thank You

http://steps.its.ucdavis.edu