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Research and Development in theFederal Budget
Matt HourihanApril 23, 2013for the Engineering Public Policy Symposium
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Trends in R&D by Agencyin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars
ARRA Funding
All Other
USDA
NSF
NASA
DOE
NIH
DOD
Source: AAAS Report: Research & Development series.FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. © 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%19
76
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Trends in Federal R&DAs a percent of GDP
Total R&D
Development
Research
Facilities
Source: Up to 1994 - National Science Foundation, Survey of Federal Funds for Research and Development; 1995 to Present - AAAS Research and Development series. GDP figures are from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014. FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Life Sciences / GDP
Physical Sciences/GDP
Engineering / GDP
EnvironmentalSciences / GDP
Math / Comp.Sciences / GDP
Federal Funds by Discipline asPercent of GDP, FY 1970-2011
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Defense Discretionary
$545[Defense R&D]
$73
Nondefense Discretionary
$554
[Nondefense R&D]$70
Social Security$860
Medicare$524
Medicaid$304
Other Mandatory$621
Net Interest$223
Composition of the Proposed FY 2014 BudgetTotal Outlays = $3.8 trillion
outlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2014.Projected unified deficit is $744 billion.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Defense Discretionary
$120
[Defense R&D]$15
Nondefense Discretionary
$126
[Nondefense R&D]$16
Social Security$117
Medicare$31
Medicaid$14
Other Mandatory$100
Net Interest$53
Composition of the FY 1980 Budgetoutlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Defense Discretionary
$254[Defense R&D]
$41
Nondefense Discretionary
$287
[Nondefense R&D]$33
Social Security$406
Medicare$194
Medicaid$118
Other Mandatory$233
Net Interest$223
Composition of the FY 2000 Budgetoutlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Defense Discretionary
$519[Defense R&D]
$65
Nondefense Discretionary
$570
[Nondefense R&D]$72
Social Security$1,080
Medicare$607
Medicaid$391
Other Mandatory$677
Net Interest$462
Composition of the FY 2018 Budget?outlays in billions of dollars
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2014.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
DOD, $69.5
HHS (NIH), $32.0
DOE, $12.7
NASA, $11.6
NSF, $6.3
USDA, $2.5
Commerce, $2.7All Other, $6.7
Total R&D by Agency, FY 2014budget authority in billions of dollars
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS
Total R&D = $144.1 billion
Defense: -5.5%Nondefense: +9.2%
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Basic Research, $33,181.7
Applied Research, $36,469.6
Development, $71,440.9
Facilities, $3,175.3
R&D by Character, FY 2014 Budget(Dollars in Millions)
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS
Total Research: +6.9%
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
1.1%-7.1%-4.6%-1.4%
1.0%1.6%2.1%2.6%6.3%8.2%9.4%
14.0%14.8%
25.0%27.7%
48.6%185.7%
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
TOTALDOD Other
DOD S&TEPAVA
NIHDOT
NASADOE Science
USDANSF
Other HHSDOE Defense
NISTNOAA
DOE EnergyDHS
R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS
DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
-2.9%-11.1%
-8.6%-5.4%-3.0%-2.4%-1.9%-1.4%
2.3%4.2%5.4%
10.0%10.8%
21.0%23.7%
44.6%181.7%
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
TOTALDOD Other
DOD S&TEPAVA
NIHDOT
NASADOE Science
USDANSF
Other HHSDOE Defense
NISTNOAA
DOE EnergyDHS
R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012 (INFLATION ADJUSTED)
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS
DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
8.2%
2.6%
0.0%
3.8%
3.6%
7.1%
7.3%
9.8%
11.9%
15.9%
14.2%
19.0%
19.3%
18.4%
12.7%
52.6%
77.7%
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
TOTALDOD Other
DOD S&TEPAVA
NIHDOT
NASADOE Science
USDANSF
Other HHSDOE Defense
NISTNOAA
DOE EnergyDHS
R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2013
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS
DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Key Admin R&D Priorities Jobs / Innovation / Science
Shifts from D to R, and from Defense to Nondefense
COMPETES Agencies: $12.6 billion (+18% from 2012)
Advanced manufacturing
Permanent R&D Tax Credit
STEM Reorg
An Advanced Low-Carbon Economy
Homeland Security (BNAF)
Repeals sequestration
(Continuing) trouble spots: NIH? NASA?
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Defense R&D: Recent Decline DOD: $69.5b (-7%)
Boost for basic, everything else cut
Cuts across all military departments and agencies; DARPA flat
DOE Atomic Weapons: Continued strong
growth
Homeland Security: National Bio and Agro-defense Facility getting built
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
General Science: Growth Area
NSF: $6.3B for R&D (+9%) 10-year Trend: +21.9% Broad investment,
especially Engineering, BIO, SBE
STEM hub Peer review under scrutiny
DOE Science: $4.6B for R&D (+6%) 10-year trend: 18.1% Growth everywhere but
High Energy Physics Continued (but restrained)
investment in ITER NIF, Exascale hit
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
NIH: Continued Stagnation
10-year trend: -10% Only notable boosts:
NCATS, National Institute for Aging, NLM
BRAIN Initiative ($40 million) Details forthcoming
Big data ($41 million) Success rate ticking
upward? Concerns: Basic / applied
split? Impacts of sequestration?
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Energy R&D: Major growth Area DOE Energy Programs: $3.1
billion (+16%) Driven by EERE, ARPA-E
And in spite of fossil energy cuts
Double 2004 levels
But nuclear energy, once a driver, is cut this year
Key point of Congressional conflict
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
DOE Energy Programsin billions of constant FY 2012 dollars
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
NASA R&D: Discontinuity? Science cut; few notable boosts
Planetary science continued target for cuts
Aeronautics remains flat
Congressional conflicts: Asteroid vs. Moon? Commercial crew increases?
What about exploration? Orion, SLS cut
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Next steps… The BIG question: resolving differences over
discretionary spending How does Congress fit a $1057 billion budget into a $966
billion hole?
Further details on STEM strategy Consolidation/reduction plus spending boost (DOEd,
Smithsonian, NSF)
COMPETES NSF research and peer review?
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$1820
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sequestration and the COMPETES Agenciesin billions of nominal dollars
COMPETES 2010Path
ARRA
Pre-SequestrationBaseline
Post-SequestrationProjection
Actuals
COMPETES Agencies include NIST, NSF, and DOE Office of Science. Based on AAAS estimates of R&D funding under sequestration, appropriations documents, and historical agency budgets.© 2013 AAAS
