Renewable Energy: Global Market and Policy Trends and the Future of Climate Change Mitigation

Dr. Eric Martinot

Teaching and Research Fellow, Victoria University of Wellington

Senior Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (Tokyo) Senior Visiting Scholar, Tsinghua University (Beijing)

Lead Author, REN21 Renewables Global Status Report

martinot@isep.or.jp www.martinot.info

Victoria University of Wellington Climate Change Research Institute Seminar

April 5, 2011

CO2 Targets

Energy Efficiency Policies and Activities

Transport Policies

Renewable Energy Policies and Activities

Carbon Cap-and-Trade Policies

Carbon-Related Taxes and Fees

Climate Policy and Renewable Energy

China Carbon Intensity Target (2009) 40-45% Reduction in CO2/GDP by 2020 (2005 Base)

• Only CO2 emissions from energy consumption and industrial activity (does not include

sinks from land use and forestry) • Include carbon intensity target in medium and long-term social and economic

development plans and develop corresponding statistics, monitoring and evaluation systems to measure progress.

• Voluntary action not intended to be binding internationally. However, the carbon intensity

reduction targets will be mandatory domestically for provinces and enterprises within China, similar to how the current energy intensity targets are mandatory, with consequences for officials of provinces and enterprises who do not meet their assigned targets.

• How much of a reduction from "business as usual"? The 11th Five Year Plan calls for

reducing energy intensity by 20%, including an energy efficiency program to close smaller, inefficient power plants and outdated, inefficient iron and steel, cement and other manufacturing capacity, and to improve efficiency of top 1,000 enterprises.

• China should be given “credit” for these efforts and not penalized for taking early action.

CHINA MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM ENERGY CONSERVATION PLAN (2005)

Energy intensities 2000 2020

Coal consumption of power generation 392 gce/kWh 320 gce/kWh

Steel production 906 kgce/ton 700 kgce/ton

Aluminum production 9.9 tce/ton 9.2 tce/ton

Cement production 181 kgce/ton 129 kgce/ton

Railway transport 10.4 tce/million ton-km 9 tce/million ton-km

Equipment efficiencies 2000 2010

Coal-fired industrial boilers 65% 70-80%

Medium and small motors 87% 90-92%

Pumps and fans 75-80% 80-87%

Passenger cars 9.5 liters/100km 6.7~8.2 l/100km

Refrigerators (index) 80 50~62

China Renewable Energy Targets

2009 actual 2010 target 2020 target

Hydro power 197 GW 190 GW 300 GW

Wind power 25.8 GW 5 GW 30 GW

Biomass power 3.2 GW 5.5 GW 30 GW

Solar PV 0.4 GW 0.3 GW 1.8 GW

Solar hot water 190 million m2 150 million m

2 300 million m

2

Ethanol 2 million tons 2 million tons 10 million tons

Biodiesel 0.2 million tons 2 million tons

Biomass pellets ~ 0 1 million tons 50 million tons

Biogas and biomass gasification

8 million m3/year 19 billion m

3/year 44 million m

3/year

Share of final energy 9% 15%

GSR_2010_final 14.07.2010 12:23 Uhr Seite 1

0

20

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100

120

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160

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Figure 12. Annual Investment in New Renewable Energy Capacity, 2004–2009

Wind Power; 41%

Solar PV; 31%

Biofuels; 12%

Biomass/geothermal power/heat;

6%

Solar hot water; 5%

Small hydro; 5%

Annual Investment – Technology Shares (2008)

Renewables 140 per GSR draft

Fossil Fuels 160

calculated by

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from estimated

increase

300

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60

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180

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Figure 5. Wind Power, Existing World Capacity, 1996–2009

10.0

13.8

1.9

2.5

1.3

1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.3

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15

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25

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China Germany Spain India Italy France United Kingdom

Portugal Denmark

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Figure 6. Wind Power Capacity, Top 10 Countries, 2009

Added in 2009

Existing in 2008

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Figure 7. Solar PV, Existing World Capacity, 1995–2009

Total

Grid-connected only

Off-grid only

Germany

47%

Spain

16%

Japan

13%

United States

6%

Italy

5%

South Korea

2%

Other EU

7%

Other

4%

Figure 8. Solar PV Existing Capacity, Top Six Countries, 2009

Global Total = 21 GW

China 70.5%

European Union 12.3%

Turkey 5.0%

Japan 2.8%

Israel 1.7%

Brazil 1.6%

United States 1.3%

India 1.2%

Australia 0.9% Korea

0.7%

Other 2.0%

Figure 9. Solar Hot Water/Heating Existing Capacity,

Top 10 Countries/Regions, 2008

Total = 149 GWTh

0

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50

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80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Figure 11. Ethanol and Biodiesel Production, 2000–2009

Policy Landscape

• 85 countries now have policy targets (up from 45 in 2005) • 83 countries with policies to promote renewable power generation • 50 countries and 25 states/provinces/territories with feed-in tariffs • 10 countries and 46 states/provinces with renewable portfolio standards • 24 countries and 41 states/provinces with biofuels blending mandates • 6 million households and businesses worldwide purchase green power

RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT38

Table 2. Renewable Energy Promotion Policies

Country

EU-27

Austria X X X X XBelgium (*) X X X X XBulgaria X X XCyprus X XCzech Republic X X X X X XDenmark X X X X X X X XEstonia X X X XFinland X X X X XFrance X X X X X X XGermany X X X X X XGreece X X X X XHungary X X X X X XIreland X X X X XItaly X X X X X X X XLatvia X X X XLithuania X X X X XLuxembourg X X X XMalta X X XNetherlands X X X X XPoland X X X X X XPortugal X X X X X XRomania X X X XSlovakia X X X XSlovenia X X X X X X XSpain X X X X X X Sweden X X X X X X X United Kingdom X X X X X X

Other Developed/Transition Countries

Australia (*) X X X XBelarus XCanada (*) (*) X X X X X XIsrael X X XJapan X X X X X X XMacedonia XNew Zealand X XNorway X X X X Russia X XSerbia XSouth Korea X X X X XSwitzerland X X XUkraine XUnited States (*) (*) X X (*) (*) X (*) (*) (*)

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RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 39

Table 2. Renewable Energy Promotion Policies (continued)

Country

Developing Countries

Algeria X X XArgentina X X (*) X X X XBolivia XBrazil X X XChile X X X X X XChina X X X X X X X XCosta Rica XDominican Republic X X X XEcuador X XEgypt X XEl Salvador X X XEthiopia X Ghana X X XGuatemala X XIndia (*) (*) X X X X X XIndonesia X X XIran X XJordan X X XKenya X XMalaysia XMauritius XMexico X X X XMongolia X XMorocco X X XNicaragua X X XPakistan X XPalestinian Territories XPanama XPeru X X X XPhilippines X X X X X X X X XRwanda XSouth Africa X X X X X Sri Lanka XTanzania X X X Thailand X X XTunisia X X XTurkey X XUganda X X X XUruguay X XZambia X

Notes: Entries with an asterisk (*) mean that some states/provinces within these countries have state/province-level policies but there is no national-level policy.Only enacted policies are included in table; however, for some policies shown, implementing regulations may not yet be developed or effective, leading to lackof implementation or impacts. Policies known to be discontinued have been omitted. Many feed-in policies are limited in scope or technology. Some policiesshown may apply to other markets beside power generation, for example solar hot water and biofuels. Sources: See Endnote 235.

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GSR_2010_final 14.07.2010 12:25 Uhr Seite 39

RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT62

Table R10. Cumulative Number of Countries/States/Provinces Enacting Feed-in Policies

Year Cumulative Countries/States/Provinces Added That YearNumber

1978 1 United States1990 2 Germany1991 3 Switzerland1992 4 Italy1993 6 Denmark, India1994 8 Spain, Greece1997 9 Sri Lanka1998 10 Sweden1999 13 Portugal, Norway, Slovenia2000 13 —2001 15 France, Latvia2002 21 Algeria, Austria, Brazil, Czech Republic, Indonesia, Lithuania2003 27 Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, South Korea, Slovak Republic, Maharashtra (India)2004 33 Israel, Nicaragua, Prince Edward Island (Canada), Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh (India)2005 40 Karnataka, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh (India); China, Turkey, Ecuador, Ireland2006 45 Ontario (Canada), Kerala (India), Argentina, Pakistan, Thailand2007 54 South Australia (Australia), Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Dominican Rep., Finland, Macedonia, Mongolia, Uganda2008 67 Queensland (Australia); California (USA); Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil

Nadu, and West Bengal (India); Kenya, the Philippines, Tanzania, Ukraine 2009 77 Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, Victoria (Australia); Japan; Serbia; South Africa; Taiwan;

Hawaii; Oregon and Vermont (USA)2010 (early) 78 United Kingdom

Note: Cumulative number refers to number of jurisdictions that had enacted a feed-in policy by the given year; however, polices in some countries weresubsequently discontinued so the number of existing policies cited in this report is 75. See Endnote 236 for details. Many policies have been revised or refor-mulated in years subsequent to the initial year shown for a given country. India’s national feed-in tariff from 1993 was substantially discontinued but newnational feed-in tariffs were enacted in 2008. Sources: All available policy references, including the IEA online Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measuresdatabase and submissions from report contributors.

Table R11. Cumulative Number of Countries/States/Provinces Enacting RPS Policies

Year Cumulative Countries/States/Provinces Added That YearNumber

1983 1 Iowa (USA)1994 2 Minnesota (USA)1996 3 Arizona (USA)1997 6 Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada (USA)1998 9 Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (USA)1999 12 New Jersey, Texas (USA); Italy2000 13 New Mexico (USA)2001 15 Flanders (Belgium); Australia2002 18 California (USA); Wallonia (Belgium); United Kingdom2003 19 Japan; Sweden; Maharashtra (India)2004 34 Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island (USA); Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island

(Canada); Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa (India); Poland2005 38 District of Columbia, Delaware, Montana (USA); Gujarat (India)2006 39 Washington State (USA)2007 44 Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon (USA); China2008 49 Michigan, Ohio (USA); Chile; Philippines; Romania2009 50‡ Kansas (USA)

Note: Cumulative number refers to number of jurisdictions that had enacted RPS policies as of the given year. Jurisdictions listed under year of first policyenactment; many policies are revised in subsequent years. ‡There are also six Indian states not shown because year is uncertain: Haryana, Kerala, Rajasthan,Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. Sources: All available policy references, including the IEA online Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measuresdatabase, published sources as given in the endnotes and the 2007 report edition, and submissions from report contributors.

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RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT62

Table R10. Cumulative Number of Countries/States/Provinces Enacting Feed-in Policies

Year Cumulative Countries/States/Provinces Added That YearNumber

1978 1 United States1990 2 Germany1991 3 Switzerland1992 4 Italy1993 6 Denmark, India1994 8 Spain, Greece1997 9 Sri Lanka1998 10 Sweden1999 13 Portugal, Norway, Slovenia2000 13 —2001 15 France, Latvia2002 21 Algeria, Austria, Brazil, Czech Republic, Indonesia, Lithuania2003 27 Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, South Korea, Slovak Republic, Maharashtra (India)2004 33 Israel, Nicaragua, Prince Edward Island (Canada), Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh (India)2005 40 Karnataka, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh (India); China, Turkey, Ecuador, Ireland2006 45 Ontario (Canada), Kerala (India), Argentina, Pakistan, Thailand2007 54 South Australia (Australia), Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Dominican Rep., Finland, Macedonia, Mongolia, Uganda2008 67 Queensland (Australia); California (USA); Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil

Nadu, and West Bengal (India); Kenya, the Philippines, Tanzania, Ukraine 2009 77 Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, Victoria (Australia); Japan; Serbia; South Africa; Taiwan;

Hawaii; Oregon and Vermont (USA)2010 (early) 78 United Kingdom

Note: Cumulative number refers to number of jurisdictions that had enacted a feed-in policy by the given year; however, polices in some countries weresubsequently discontinued so the number of existing policies cited in this report is 75. See Endnote 236 for details. Many policies have been revised or refor-mulated in years subsequent to the initial year shown for a given country. India’s national feed-in tariff from 1993 was substantially discontinued but newnational feed-in tariffs were enacted in 2008. Sources: All available policy references, including the IEA online Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measuresdatabase and submissions from report contributors.

Table R11. Cumulative Number of Countries/States/Provinces Enacting RPS Policies

Year Cumulative Countries/States/Provinces Added That YearNumber

1983 1 Iowa (USA)1994 2 Minnesota (USA)1996 3 Arizona (USA)1997 6 Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada (USA)1998 9 Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (USA)1999 12 New Jersey, Texas (USA); Italy2000 13 New Mexico (USA)2001 15 Flanders (Belgium); Australia2002 18 California (USA); Wallonia (Belgium); United Kingdom2003 19 Japan; Sweden; Maharashtra (India)2004 34 Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island (USA); Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island

(Canada); Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa (India); Poland2005 38 District of Columbia, Delaware, Montana (USA); Gujarat (India)2006 39 Washington State (USA)2007 44 Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon (USA); China2008 49 Michigan, Ohio (USA); Chile; Philippines; Romania2009 50‡ Kansas (USA)

Note: Cumulative number refers to number of jurisdictions that had enacted RPS policies as of the given year. Jurisdictions listed under year of first policyenactment; many policies are revised in subsequent years. ‡There are also six Indian states not shown because year is uncertain: Haryana, Kerala, Rajasthan,Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. Sources: All available policy references, including the IEA online Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measuresdatabase, published sources as given in the endnotes and the 2007 report edition, and submissions from report contributors.

GSR_2010_final 14.07.2010 12:26 Uhr Seite 62

Fossil fuels; 78%

Nuclear; 2.8%

Biofuels; 0.6%

Wind/solar/biomass/geothermal power generation; 0.7%

Biomass/solar/geothermal hot water/heating; 1.4%

Hydropower; 3.2%

Traditional biomass; 13%

Renewables 19%

Figure 1. Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2008

49 42

38 34

31 30

25 25

24 23 23

20 18 18

17 16 16

15 15

14 14

13 13 13 13

11 10

20

0 10 20 30 40 50

Sweden Latvia

Finland Austria

Portugal Denmark

Estonia Slovenia Romania

France Lithuania

Spain Germany

Greece Italy

Bulgaria Ireland Poland

United Kingdom Netherlands

Slovak Republic Belgium

Czech Republic Cyprus

Hungary Luxembourg

Malta Total (EU-27)

Percent

Figure 15. EU Renewable Energy Targets: Share of Final Energy by 2020

Baseline (actual) 2005 Level

Target by 2020

RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 57

Table R7. Share of Primary and Final Energy from Renewables, Existing in 2008 and Targets

Primary Energy Final Energy

Country/Region Existing share (2008)1 Future target Existing share (2008) Future target

World 19%EU-27 8.2% 12% by 2010 10.3% 20% by 2020

EU Countries

Austria 29% 28.5% 34% by 2020Belgium 3.0% 3.3% 13% by 2020Bulgaria 5.1% 9.4% 16% by 2020Cyprus 2.1% 9% by 2010 4.1% 13% by 2020Czech Republic 4.9% 8.6–10% by 2020 7.2% 13% by 2020Denmark 18% 20% by 2011 18.8% 30% by 2025

30% by 2025Estonia 12% 19.1% 25% by 2020Finland 25% 30.5% 38% by 2020France 7.5% 7% by 2010 11.0% 23% by 2020Germany 8.1% 4% by 2010 8.9% 18% by 2020

18% by 202050% by 2050

Greece 5.1% 8.0% 18% by 2020Hungary2 6.1% 6.6% 13% by 2020Ireland 3.8% 3.8% 16% by 2020Italy 8.2% 6.8% 17% by 2020Latvia 28% 6% by 2010 29.9% 40% by 2020Lithuania 10% 12% by 2010 15.3% 23% by 2020

20% by 2025Luxembourg 3.6% 2.1% 11% by 2020Malta 0.5% 0.2% 10% by 2020Netherlands 3.4% 3.2% 14% by 2020Poland 5.8% 14% by 2020 7.9% 15% by 2020Portugal 17.6% 23.2% 31% by 2020Romania 14% 20.4% 24% by 2020Slovakia 5.2% 8.4% 14% by 2020Slovenia 12% 15.1% 25% by 2020Spain 10.7% 20% by 2020Sweden 32% 44.4% 49% by 2020United Kingdom 2.6% 2.2% 15% by 2020

Other Developed/OECD/Transition Countries

Albania 18% by 2020Israel 10–20% by 2020South Korea 2.4% 4.3% by 2015

6.1% by 202011% by 2030

Switzerland 16% 24% by 2020 18%

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RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 59

Table R8. Share of Electricity fromRenewables, Existing in 2008 and Targets

Country/Region Existing share (2008) Future target

World 18%EU-27 16.7%‡ 21% by 2010

EU Countries

Austria 62% 78% by 2010Belgium 5.3% 6% by 2010Bulgaria 7.4% 11% by2010Cyprus 0.3% 6% by 2010Czech Republic 5.2% 8% by 2010

16.9% by 2030Denmark 29% 29% by 2010Estonia 2% 5.1% by 2010Finland 31% 31.5% by 2010France 14% 21% by 2010Germany 15% 12.5% by 2010

25–30% by 202050% by 2030

Greece 8.3% 20.1% by 2010Hungary 5.6% 3.6% by 2010Ireland 12% 13.2% by 2010

40% by 2020Italy 17% 22.5% by 2010Latvia 41% 49.3% by 2010Lithuania 4.6% 7% by 2010Luxembourg 4.1% 5.7% by 2010Malta 5% by 2010Netherlands 8.9% 9% b 2010Poland 4.3% 7.5% by 2010Portugal 27% 39% by 2010

55–60% by 2020Romania 28% 33% by 2010Slovakia 16% 31% by 2010Slovenia 29% 33.6% by 2010Spain 21% 29.4% by 2010Sweden 56% 60% by 2010United Kingdom 5.6% 10.4% by 2010/11

15.4% by 2015/16

Other Developed/OECD/Transition Countries

Israel 17% 5% by 201610% by 2020

Japan1,2 0.4% 1.63% by 2014Switzerland 16% 24% by 2020Mexico 3.9% 4.5% by 2010New Zealand 65% 90% by 2025Russia 1.5% by 2010

4.5% by 2020

Notes: ‡EU-27 attained 19.9% share in 2009 per EC Joint Research Center,"Renewable Energy Snapshots" (Brussels, May 2010). For some countriespercentages rounded to nearest 1 percent. Countries included in table arethose with targets; share of electricity from renewables for selected othercountries without a target for share of electricity include Australia (7%),Bolivia (39%), Canada (61%), Chile (51%), China (17%), Colombia (82%),Costa Rica (95%), Cuba (9%), Ecuador (62%), Honduras (60%), Kenya(58%), South Korea (1%), Mozambique (99%), Panama (64%), Peru (56%),Switzerland (56%), United States (8.8%), Uruguay (61%), and Zambia (99%).The United States and Canada have de-facto state- or province-level targetsthrough existing RPS policies (see Table R11), but no national targets. Somecountries shown also have other types of targets; see Tables R7 and R9.See text of Section 4 for more information about sub-national targets.Existing shares are indicative and are not intended to be a fully reliablereference. 1Japan existing share does not include large hydro because thetarget excludes hydro; with hydro included, existing share is 9 percent.2These indicated countries’ existing shares are for 2006, unchanged fromthe 2007 report edition. 3Argentina also has a target for 8 percent ofelectricity by 2016 from sources excluding large hydropower. 4Anotherestimate for Nicaragua gives a 44 percent existing share in 2008. 5Sri Lanka2017 target excludes large hydro. Sources: REN21 database and submissi-ons by report contributors; existing country shares for EU and other OECDcountries from IEA Renewables Information 2009. For online updates, seethe “Renewables Interactive Map” at www.ren21.net.

tDeveloping Countries

Algeria 9.9% 10% by 2010Argentina3 35% 40% by 2015Bangladesh 5% by 2015

10% by 2020Brazil 85% 75–85% by 2020Cameroon 50% by 2015

80% by 2020Cape Verde 50% by 2020Dominican Republic 7% 10% by 2015

25% by 2025Egypt 20% by 2020Ghana 10% by 2020India2 4% 25% by 2010Jamaica 5% 10% by 2010

15% by 2020Libya 10% by 2020

30% by 2030Madagascar 75% by 2020Mauritius 37% 65% by 2028Morocco 4% 20% by 2012Mongolia 3% 20–25% by 2020Nicaragua4 27% 38% by 2011Niger 10% by 2020Nigeria 7% by 2025Pakistan 10% by 2012Philippines 4.7% by 2013Rwanda 90% by 2012South Africa <1% 4% by 2013

13% by 2020Sri Lanka5 10% by 2017Thailand 10.6% by 2011

14.1% by 2022Tonga 50% by 2012

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RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT60

Table R9. Other Renewable Energy Targets

Country Targets

Algeria Wind: 100 MW by 2015; solar thermal: 170 MW by 2015; solar PV: 5.1 MW by 2015; cogeneration: 450 MWby 2015; CSP: 500 MW by 2010

Argentina Renewable capacity: 1,000 MW by 2012, including 500 MW wind, 150 MW biofuels, 120 MW waste-to-energy, 100 MW biomass, 60 MW small hydro, 30 MW geothermal, 20 MW solar, and 20 MW biogas; 2,500MW by 2016

Australia Renewable capacity: 20% by 2020; generation: 45 TWh by 2020Canada Renewable generation: 14.3 TWh by 2020Cape Verde Renewables in general: 100% on one islandChina Renewable capacity: 362 GW by 2020, including 300 GW hydro, 30 GW wind, 30 GW biomass, and 1.8 GW

solar PV/CSP, although increased targets to 150 GW wind and 20 GW solar PV/CSP by 2020 exist as draft orunofficial targets; solar hot water: 150 million m2 by 2010 and 300 m2 by 2020

Croatia Wind: 400 MW by 2030Denmark Offshore wind: 1.02 GW by 2012Dominican Republic Wind: 500 MW by 2015Egypt Renewable generation: 20% by 2020, including 12% from wind (about 7,200 MW) and 8% from hydro and

solar PVEthiopia Wind: 0.76 GW new installed capacity by 2013; geothermal: 0.45 GW new installed capacity by 2018;

hydro: 5.6 GW new installed capacity by 2015France Solar PV: 4.9 GW by 2020Germany Renewable heating: 14% by 2020India Renewable capacity: 12.5 GW added 2007–2012; 15% share of added power capacity 2002–2022

Solar PV and CSP: 1.1 GW by 2013, 10 GW by 2017, 20 GW by 2022Wind power: 9 GW added 2007–2012Small hydro: 1.4 GW added 2007–2012Biomass/cogeneration: 1.7 GW added 2007–2012Waste-to-energy: 0.4 GW added 2007–2012Solar hot water: 15 million m2 by 2017; 20 million m2 by 2022Rural lighting systems: 20 million by 2022

Indonesia Geothermal: 6 GW; biomass: 810 MW; wind power: 255 MW; solar PV: 80 MW (all by 2025)Ireland Ocean power: 500 MW by 2020Israel Solar PV: 10–20% by 2020Italy Solar PV: 3 GW by 2016Japan Solar PV: 4.8 GW by 2010; 14 GW and 5.3 million homes by 2020; 53 GW by 2030Jordan Wind: 600–1,000 MW; solar PV: 300–600 MW; waste-to-energy: 30–50 MWKenya Renewable capacity: double installed capacity by 2012; geothermal power: 4 GW by 2030Libya Wind: 280 MW by 2012 and 1,500 MW by 2030; CSP: 50 MW by 2012 and 800 MW by 2030; solar PV: 150

MW by 2030Lithuania Biomass: 70% of centralized heating by 2020Mexico Share of installed capacity: 7.6% by 2012, including wind power 4.34%, small hydro 0.77 %, geothermal

1.65%, and biogas/biomass 0.85%.Morocco Solar hot water: 400,000 m2 by 2012 and 1.7 million m2 by 2020; wind power: 1440 MW by 2015;

small hydro: 400 MW by 2015Namibia Non-hydro renewable capacity: 40 MW by 2011Nigeria Renewable capacity: 16 GW by 2015 Norway Renewable generation: 30 TWh increased annual production from 2001 to 2016;

bioenergy: 14 TWh by 2020Pakistan Renewable capacity: 5% by 2030

GSR_2010_final 14.07.2010 12:26 Uhr Seite 60

Energy System Futures: Five Fundamental Changes

• Renewable energy on power grids is now routinely exceeding 20% in several countries,

and limits will be reached in the coming decade on the addition of renewable energy in the absence of large-scale energy storage capacity.

• In the coming decade, the rise of new power grid technologies, energy storage technologies, and electric vehicles will all make renewable energy more competitive and practical at increasing scales.

• There are five types of fundamental change at work:

(1) The emergence of new energy storage technologies (2) The evolution of power systems: from centralized to distributed and dumb to smart (3) The radical concept that “load follows supply” on a power grid (4) The institutional and technical interconnection of electric power and transport (5) Changing managerial role of power companies with new business models

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Folie 15 Threats and opportunities for storage technologies 24.11.2008

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Electrification concepts for passenger cars

Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV)

Storage capacity approx. 1 kWh, charging only during driving, fuel reduction max. 20%

Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) Storage capacity 5 – 10 kWh, charging from the grid, 30 to 70 km electrical driving range, full driving range with conventional engine or fuel cell, driving with empty battery possible

Electric vehicle (EV) Storage capacity 15 – 40 kWh, charging from the grid, 100 to 300 km electrical driving range

60

so that performance is optimised. This would enable relevant, real time, information data to be sent to transmission and distribution controls, end-use devices, and consumers to enable appropriate action to be taken instantly at any given moment to keep the grid functioning reliably, to minimise costs, and to reduce resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The system would use sensors and meters to optimise the balance of the power generation supply and delivery with the ever-changing demand. This would minimise losses, be self-correcting and enable energy efficiency and demand-side responses to be integrated and encouraged.

An intelligent grid would transform the electricity distribution system from the common radial design of feeder with electrons moving from the central generation plant in one direction along out-going distribution lines (Fig. 7, page 7) to a network with two-way electron flows that ensure all generation sources, whether large or small, can be connected to end-use appliances (Fig. 11). This will require conversion from the present electro-mechanical system to a digitally monitored and controlled network. Having instantaneous two-way communication between electricity consumers and electricity suppliers will enable all stakeholders to participate actively in the market place. For small-scale generation plants, such as from building-integrated solar PV, roof-mounted vertical axis wind turbines, or small CHP plants, many consumers will also be suppliers.

One attribute of an intelligent electricity system would be the ability to practically use a significant share of variable renewable energy (particularly from wind, solar and wave). The present electro-mechanical controls that many electricity delivery systems rely on cannot reliably transport more than small percentages of variable sources of renewable energy without requiring costly back-up capacity of electricity generation that can rapidly be brought on-line as the wind drops or clouds appear. Making

Figure 11 Representation of a distributed generation system with two-way flows of electrons (solid lines), revenue (dashed lines) and information (dotted lines) through smart meters and intelligent grids

Fuelsupplier

$€£

Generator

Large powergeneration plant

High V

transmission

Linecompany

$€£$€£ Operationscentre

$€£

Low Vdistribution

End users

Smart meter

Advanced metering infrastructure

Two way communication

Internet

Utility portal Customer portal

Load demandresponse control

Energy storageintegration

Renewablesintegration

Electric vehicleintegration

Other distributedtechnologies

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Decarbonising the electricity sector

A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels combined with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

BLUE High Nuclear 2050

BLUE High Ren 2050

PW

h

Other

Solar

Wind

Biomass+CCS

Biomass and waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas+CCS

Natural gas

Oil

Coal+CCS

Coal

2 0 1 0

ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY

PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &

Strategies

to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Key technologies for reducing global CO2

emissions under the BLUE Map scenario

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%

End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

61

6

key resu

lts|ELECTRICITY GENERATION

© JAMES PEREZ/GP

© JAMES PEREZ/GP

image CONTROL ROOM OF LUZ SOLARPOWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.

image LUZ INTERNATIONAL SOLARPOWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.

electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is characterized bya dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasingshare of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasingout of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-firedpower plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 96% of theelectricity produced in the USA will come from renewable energysources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy andPV – will contribute over 75% of electricity generation. Theadvanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will not increase this sharesignificantly. By 2030 78% and by 2050 99% will come fromrenewables, but the overall installed capacity of renewablegeneration (2533 GW) will be higher than in the basic version.

Table 6.1 shows the comparative evolution of different renewabletechnologies over time. Up to 2020, hydro power, photovoltaics(PV), and wind will remain the main contributors. After 2020, thecontinuing growth of wind will and PV be complemented byelectricity from biomass, ocean, geothermal, and solar thermal(CSP) energy.

table 6.1: projection of renewable electricitygeneration capacity under both energy [r]evolutionscenariosIN GW

2020

138

138

38

43

220

370

21

29

114

141

52

100

8

18

590

838

2040

152

158

101

102

491

657

78

124

626

868

255

373

71

189

1,774

2,471

2050

153

158

119

107

521

678

93

134

787

896

261

335

108

225

2,043

2,533

Hydro

Biomass

Wind

Geothermal

PV

CSP

Ocean energy

Total

E[R]

advanced E[R]

E[R]

advanced E[R]

E[R]

advanced E[R]

E[R]

advanced E[R]

E[R]

advanced E[R]

E[R]

advanced E[R]

E[R]

advanced E[R]

E[R]

advanced E[R]

2030

146

146

64

71

401

584

49

75

387

450

167

282

27

57

1,240

1,664

2007

100

100

12

12

17

17

3

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

132

132

figure 6.5: development of electricity generation structure under 3 scenarios (REFERENCE, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION AND ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION) [“EFFICIENCY” = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO]

TWh/a 0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

REF E[R]

2007

adv E[R]

REF E[R]

2015

adv E[R]

REF E[R]

2020

adv E[R]

REF E[R]

2030

adv E[R]

REF E[R]

2040

adv E[R]

REF E[R]

2050

adv E[R]

•‘EFFICIENCY’

• OCEAN ENERGY

• SOLAR THERMAL

• GEOTHERMAL

• BIOMASS

• PV

•WIND

• HYDRO

• DIESEL

• OIL

• NATURAL GAS

• LIGNITE

• COAL

• NUCLEAR

63

6

key resu

lts|TRANSPORT

© VISSER/GP

© LPM/DREAMSTIME

image CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER(CSP) AT A SOLAR FARM IN DAGGETT,CALIFORNIA, USA.

image AN OFFSHORE DRILLING RIGDAMAGED BY HURRICANE KATRINA,GULF OF MEXICO.

transport

A key target in the USA is to introduce incentives for people todrive smaller cars, something almost completely absent today. Inaddition, it is vital to shift transport use to efficient modes like rail,light rail and buses, especially in the expanding large metropolitanareas. Together with rising prices for fossil fuels, these changesreduce the huge growth in car sales projected under the Referencescenario. Energy demand from the transport sector is reduced to51% in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and to 44% in theadvanced version compared to the Reference Scenario.

Highly efficient propulsion technology with hybrid, plug-in hybridand battery-electric power trains will bring large efficiency gains.By 2030, electricity will provide 14% of the transport sector’stotal energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, while inthe advanced version the share will already reach 16% in 2030and 59% by 2050

figure 6.7: transport under 3 scenarios

PJ/a 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

REF E[R] adv E[R]

REF E[R] adv E[R]

REF E[R] advE[R]

REF E[R] advE[R]

REF E[R] advE[R]

RE F E[R] advE[R]

table 6.2: employment & investment

2015

546,621

487,420

199,086

210,632

361

1,444,121

55,283

172,422

18,470

1,197,945

1,444,121

2020

501,219

327,949

314,617

196,220

121

1,340,126

32,591

143,192

12,024

1,152,319

1,340,126

2030

399,299

180,877

488,107

201,204

11

1,269,497

5,597

133,852

1,712

1,128,336

1,269,497

Jobs

Construction & installation

Manufacturing

Operations & maintenance

Fuel

Coal and gas export

Total Jobs

Coal

Gas, oil and diesel

Nuclear

Renewables

Total Jobs

ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION

2015

434,323

330,750

181,292

204,582

416

1,151,363

63,904

185,298

18,470

883,691

1,151,363

2020

420,379

270,940

264,388

213,436

218

1,169,361

40,551

172,467

12,024

944,319

1,169,361

2030

243,081

143,907

413,168

233,260

19

1,033,434

20,056

177,478

1,712

834,188

1,033,434

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION

2015

77,275

60,255

150,873

181,332

763

470,498

109,954

118,234

33,940

208,370

470,498

2020

64,942

41,933

168,011

186,004

878

461,767

104,239

119,625

36,904

200,999

461,767

2030

60,238

35,079

209,943

202,736

1,401

509,396

114,937

122,193

41,097

231,168

509,396

REFERENCE

• ‘EFFICIENCY’

• HYDROGEN

• ELECTRICITY

• BIOFUELS

• NATURAL GAS

• OIL PRODUCTS

73

6

key resu

lts|GLOBAL - E

MISSIONS

development of global CO2 emissions

Whilst worldwide emissions of CO2 will almost double under theReference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario theywill decrease from 27,408 million tonnes in 2007 to 10,202million tonnes in 2050 (excluding international bunkers). Annualper capita emissions will drop from 4.1 t to 1.1 t. In spite of thephasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2

emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long runefficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity willeven reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector. With a share of32% of total CO2 in 2050, the power sector will fall significantlybut remain the largest source of emissions, followed by transport.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will decrease globalCO2 emissions even further, resulting in emissions of 3,267 milliontonnes CO2/a by 2050 and a per capita level of 0.4 t CO2/a. Thiswould mean an overall CO2 reduction of 84% from 1990 levels.Transport would retain the major share, accounting for 42% of allremaining energy related CO2 emissions.

regional breakdown of energy [r]evolution scenario The outcome of the Energy [R]evolution scenario for each region of theworld shows how the global pattern is adapted to regional circumstances both in terms of predicted demand for energy and the potentialfor developing different sources of future supply.

global

figure 6.12: global: development of CO2 emissions bysector under both energy [r]evolution scenarios

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Mil t/a

E[R]

2007

adv E[R]

E[R]

2015

adv E[R]

E[R]

2020

adv E[R]

E[R]

2030

adv E[R]

E[R]

2040

adv E[R]

E[R]

2050

adv E[R]

Million people

figure 6.13a: global: regional breakdown of CO2

emissions in the advanced energy [r]evolution in 2050

7%OECD NORTH AMERICA4%LATIN AMERICA

13%AFRICA

4%MIDDLE EAST

6%OECD EUROPE

2%OECD PACIFIC

8%TRANSITIONECONOMIES

28%CHINA

15%INDIA

13%OTHER ASIA

figure 6.13b: global: CO2 emissions by sector in theadvanced energy [r]evolution in 2050

24%INDUSTRY

9%OTHER SECTORS

34%TRANSPORT

3%DISTRICT HEATING

16%BUNKERS

14% ELECTRICITY &STEAM GENERATION

© GP/A. SRISOM

WONGWATHANA

© GP/MARTIN BOND

image TRAFFIC JAM IN BANGKOK,THAILAND.

image 100 KW PV GENERATING PLANTNEAR BELLINZONA-LOCARNO RAILWAYLINE. GORDOLA, SWITZERLAND.

POPULATION DEVELOPMENT

• SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES

• OTHER SECTORS

• INDUSTRY

•TRANSPORT

• PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP

Renewable Energy for New Zealand’s Future

1. Cities and buildings (local planning, industry, distributed generation / lines co. issues)

• Passive solar architecture (combined with energy efficient buildings) • Rooftop solar hot water and solar power • Wood pellet stoves and boilers • Small-scale biomass combined-heat-and-power • Distributed energy storage

2. Bulk power generation (grids, transmission access, geographic balance and variability)

• Large-scale wind farms (local impacts, compatibility with farming, RMA and land-use) • Geothermal power • Grid-based battery storage (Vanadium redox flow batteries) • Pumped hydropower storage

3. Transportation (integration of electric power and transportation infrastructure, planning)

• Electric vehicles charged with renewable energy through “smart grids” and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies

4. Agriculture (technology extension, farm practices, community-scale enterprise, strategy)

• Biogas production feeding distributed power generation • Small-scale wind turbines for water pumping and power generation

Motivations for Renewables

• Energy security / energy autonomy

• Local economic development

• Industrial competitiveness

• Anti-nuclear

• Climate change

• Other environmental impacts (i.e., urban air pollution, acid rain, oil spills,

habitat destruction from oil and gas drilling, land degradation from coal mining, waterway thermal pollution)