Upload
others
View
14
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 1 of 23
Relinquishment Report – P.098
Block 30/2a Post-Tertiary Area (Courageous)
October 2015
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 2 of 23
Contents
1. Licence and Field Information .................................................................................. 3
2. Project Overview ................................................................................................... 4
3. Licence Synopsis ................................................................................................... 5
4. Work Programme Summary .................................................................................... 6
4.1. Well results summary ................................................................................... 6
5. Database .............................................................................................................. 8
5.1. Courageous Well Database ............................................................................ 8
5.2. Seismic Database ........................................................................................ 8
6. Further Technical Work Undertaken ........................................................................ 11
6.1. Seismic Technologies...................................................................................11
6.2. Hydrocarbons Initially In Place......................................................................15
6.3. Resources and Production Forecast ...............................................................17
6.4. Well Engineering Overview ...........................................................................18
6.5. Development Concepts and Exports ..............................................................20
7. Resource and Risk Summary .................................................................................. 22
8. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 23
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 3 of 23
1. Licence and Field Information
The Courageous field was discovered in 1971 in block 30/2a of the Central North Sea,
approximately 240km East of Aberdeen, under the 3rd round licence P.098. The field
outline extends into block 30/1g, which was successfully acquired in the 27th Licence
Round under licence P.2054 by Maersk Oil and GDF SUEZ E&P UK Ltd. Maersk Oil
operates both licences with equity of 99.5%, whilst the remaining 0.5% interest is held
by GDF SUEZ E&P UK Ltd.
Courageous is a four-way dip closure with discovered hydrocarbons found in sands from
the distal reaches of the Palaeocene Forties turbidite fan. The field is NPNT and consists
of volatile oil in equilibrium with wet gas. The project development is based on
production without pressure support (reservoir base case), although the benefit of gas
and water injection have been investigated. Likewise, the benefit of stimulation by
propped hydraulic fracturing was considered, although the current base case relies on
unstimulated long horizontal wells. Artificial lift will be required to lift the wells later in
field life.
Figure 1.1 shows the location of the Courageous discovery within Quad 30 North relative
to other developments and discoveries in the area.
Figure 1.1 Courageous Location Map.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 4 of 23
2. Project Overview
The project timeline for the Courageous discovery has been driven by the June 2016
licence expiry for P.098. It was initiated as a development project in Q2 2012 and
entered the Maersk Oil Project Maturation Process (PMP) at the Select stage. On the
basis of limited facilities feasibilities studies, the base development concept assumed a
subsea tieback to the Total operated Elgin platform. Subsequent discussions with
potential host platforms in the area confirmed that the host modifications and associated
costs assumed were significantly underestimated. This placed pressure on the project
economics and led to the decision to recycle the Courageous project back to Assess, in
order that a wider range of development options could be considered. A complete
reservoir model rebuild was undertaken in parallel as it was believed that the
heterogeneity in the reservoir had not been adequately represented previously.
Throughout 2013 a significant amount of development screening work was undertaken
and the sub-surface model rebuild completed. The project was subsequently taken to an
Assess gate in Q1 2014 but failed to enter the Select stage due to:
No clear line of sight of a development concept – a subsea tieback to the
proposed new Jackdaw Central Processing Facility (CPF) had been carried as
the reference development case but ongoing discussions with BG in the run up
to the gate concluded that no commercial offer would be forthcoming.
Financial exposure in a low case sub-surface outcome – due to the uncertainty
in hydrocarbon presence in the East and West of the Courageous reservoir, the
low case economics presented at the Integrated Gate Review highlighted
significant downside exposure. Further appraisal of the field was recommended
to improve the low case economics, which also required the project to remain
within the Assess stage.
Throughout 2014 the project remained in the Assess stage. A Value of Information
exercise was conducted to determine the value of further appraisal. This led to the
decision to appraise the East of the Courageous discovery in Q4 2014. Due to licence
expiry constraints, it was necessary to progress the facilities work scope with a view to
having an approved Field Development Plan (FDP) in place by the end of 2015. The
facilities work was progressed on the basis of successful appraisal in the East and carried
forward the development options screened at the 2014 Assess gate.
The Courageous 30/2a-11 appraisal well was subsequently drilled in November 2014,
encountering the top reservoir 78ft deep to prognosis, with the reservoir section water
bearing. This significantly reduced the expected recoverable resource estimates for the
Courageous discovery, such that the economic feasibility of the development options
being considered could not be demonstrated. Following the appraisal well, further high
level option screening was conducted with the aim of identifying an economically viable
development solution.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 5 of 23
3. Licence Synopsis
The P.098 licence was initially granted in 1970 as part of the 3rd seaward round. It was
subsequently split into sub-areas of pre-Tertiary (including the Jackdaw discovery) and
post-Tertiary by way of an operating agreement amendment, with different equity
partnerships.
This document covers relinquishment of the post-Tertiary sub-area of the licence only, of
which Maersk Oil North Sea UK Ltd are operators with 99.5% equity, whilst GDF SUEZ
E&P UK Ltd holds the remaining 0.5%.
The end of the second term of this licence is 8th June 2016.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 6 of 23
4. Work Programme Summary
The original work programme for the P.098 licence was to carry out seismic survey work
and to drill at least one exploration well in the licence area. Both of these requirements
have been met for licence P.098. Under the licence agreement, hydrocarbons were
required to be commercially produced prior to the licence expiry in June 2016. The
appraisal well 30/2a-11 was drilled in late 2014 in an attempt to progress this objective.
4.1. Well results summary
Following agreement with DECC that the firm well commitment for licence P.2054 in
block 30/1g could be moved to 30/2a and still satisfy that component of the licence
commitment, appraisal well 30/2a-11 was drilled in 2014. The well location also
provided the opportunity to side-track into the Audacious discovery to the east, in the
event of a successful Courageous appraisal result.
The main objectives of the well were to confirm the presence of reservoir and the depth
of the free-water level within the Forties Sandstone interval. These objectives were only
partially met, with the well concluded after a short interval of Forties Sandstone was
penetrated, owing to the top reservoir being encountered below the expected oil-water
contact and found to be water-bearing. Weather conditions dictated that only 30ft of
Forties Sandstone could be penetrated prior to the drill string having to be hung-off, with
the decision to finish the well at that depth taken during the period of poor weather.
Top Forties F7 (Ichron scheme) was encountered 79ft deep, 15ft below the expected oil-
water contact (Figure 4.1). The seismically derived Top Sele horizon was encountered
75ft deep to prognosis. Porosity and Sw were not calculated across the penetrated
reservoir owing to the offset of the porosity tools from the bit within the LWD tool string.
Gamma Ray logs confirmed the presence of sand, whilst resistivity logs confirmed the
reservoir to be water-bearing. The penetration of a Forties age sandstone was confirmed
by biostratigraphic analysis. Given the unsuccessful Courageous discovery appraisal well,
a side-track into the Audacious discovery was not undertaken.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 7 of 23
Figure 4.1. Stratigraphy encountered in 30/2a-11 compared with the pre-appraisal
model (dashed lines). See Figure 6.4 for well locations.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 8 of 23
5. Database
An overview of the well and seismic database used in the analyses of the Courageous
discovery is summarised in section 5.1.
5.1. Courageous Well Database
The log data, core data, formation pressures and well test data available over the Forties
Sandstone interval in the wells that define the Courageous accumulation are presented in
Table 5.1. A further ten Courageous offset wells were considered in the building of the
Courageous static 3D model to constrain semi-regional facies models. Petrophysical
models were constructed only with the wells noted in Table 5.1. A more specific
Courageous discovery area of interest dynamic model was “cookie cuttered” out of this
static model.
Well GR Resistivity Neutron Density Sonic Core Formation
Pressures
DST
30/2-1 √ √ √ √ √ √ √
30/2a-5 √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
30/2a-5Z √ √ √ √ √ √ √
30/2a-5Y √ √ √ √ √ √
30/2a-9 √ √ √ √ √ √ √
30/2a-9Z √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Table 5.1. Key wells used in the evaluation of the Courageous discovery.
Routine core analysis was available on all cored intervals whilst special core analysis was
undertaken in the 30/2a-5 and 30/2a-9 wells. Offset wells used for facies modelling
were; 30/1-1, 30/1c-2A, 30/1d-12, 30/2a-2, 30/2a-6, 30/2a-7, 30/2a-7Z, 30/2a-8,
30/3a-1, N1/2-1.
5.2. Seismic Database
The seismic dataset used for the geophysical interpretation of the Courageous discovery
was the CGG owned Cornerstone survey (Figure 5.1). This was due to data availability
and lateral coverage of this dataset which allowed regional wells to be incorporated into
the analysis. This was originally acquired by Veritas in 2001/2, at a 12.5 group interval,
60 fold data into a 6km cable.
This was reprocessed in 2010 in a regional Quad 30 mega merge from CGG as a full
PSDM Kirchoff migration with 25m line and trace spacing. The interpretation of
Courageous addressed an area defined by Line range 10800-13496, Trace range 20800-
24192 and TWT range 0-4secs.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 9 of 23
Figure 5.1. Map showing extent of seismic data across the Courageous licence.
Additional seismic data sets not used are also shown in addition to a 2013 Absolute
Acoustic Impedance volume which was generated by Maersk Oil for the Ockley discovery.
All of these seismic datasets are owned by CGG whilst differentiated by vintage for
clarity.
A CGG Broadseis dataset was additionally acquired over the greater Courageous area,
primarily to improve imaging of the deeper Jurassic structures but it provided an
alternative seismic volume to interpret upon. In the shallower Palaeocene interval where
top Sele is the key seismic marker, little variation was observed between all of the
datasets (Figure 5.2).
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 10 of 23
Figure 5.2. The three picks of the Top Sele, picked on the Veritas (Helix), Cornerstone
and Broadseis volumes. In general the Veritas dataset gives the shallowest picks and the
Broadseis dataset the deepest. The differences appear to be constants between the
different vintages of survey. In this case the constant would be incorporated into the
calibration of the depth conversion scheme used for that survey and would become
insignificant. Only variations around that constant value would be significant. All of
these vintages of seismic dataset are owned by CGG (Veritas 2006 PSDM - seismic
dataset displayed). Data courtesy of CGG.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 11 of 23
6. Further Technical Work Undertaken
6.1. Seismic Technologies
An AVO effect is observed across the Courageous discovery, as indicated by the ratio of
the Far/Near envelope (Figure 6.1). Seismic Inversion has been undertaken twice on
seismic data in this area but with limited success. Neither of the inversion products has
been able to conclusively separate lithological or pore-fill parameters. The lack of
conformance to a closure and well based rock physics modelling indicate that the AVO
response appears related to Lithology only. It does appear to define the top of the main
Forties sand with reasonable confidence on a semi-regional basis but does not
differentiate intra-reservoir lithological variability.
Figure 6.1. Timeslice at Top Forties level of the Far/Near amplitude ratio. Far
amplitude greater than Near is gold, Near amplitude greater than Far is pale blue. This
correlates with a subjective judgement of higher sand/shale ratio but has no apparent
relationship to fluid-fill (CGGV Cornerstone - input seismic dataset displayed). Data
courtesy of CGG Cornerstone 3D.
Other seismic attributes such as residual dip and various forms of frequency
decomposition were used to assess gross facies distributions, particularly when
integrated with core based sedimentological interpretations. This allowed greater
confidence to be placed upon inclusion of general channel, lobe or sheet distributions in
the 3D geological model. The residual dip attribute allowed shallow dips to be identified
which might have controlled depositional patterns (Figure 6.2a & b). Frequency
decomposition was used to identify depositional features (Figure 6.3a) and latterly other
features, either structural or stratigraphic, by inclusion of the higher frequency data
(Figure 6.3b & c), commonly assumed to be mostly noise but found to be consistent with
previous frequency decomposition outputs but of higher resolution.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 12 of 23
Figure 6.2a. Residual Dip image 170ms above Top Ekofisk. Cutting through the lower
Forties interval, it shows clear structural control of the deposition pattern. This structure
may have been caused by movement of the Jurassic structure beneath, or dewatering
and compression of the underlying upper Cretaceous in the surrounding thick Cretaceous
areas (CGGV Cornerstone - input seismic dataset displayed). Data courtesy of CGG
Cornerstone 3D.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 13 of 23
Figure 6.2b. Residual Dip image 200ms above Top Ekofisk. The graben of west
Courageous is filled and two channels flow round the Courageous ridge to the east. East
of Courageous, the most westerly of these two channels skirts past the Jackdaw Forties
Sandstone discovery (Audacious, wells shown in green) and across the eastern side of
Courageous, while the easterly channel goes further eastwards into more open terrain
then southwards over the Blane Field. There is higher ground between the two channels,
hence the Jackdaw Forties Sandstone discovery (Audacious) sands may not be directly
correlatable with the Blane Field Forties sands (CGGV Cornerstone - input seismic dataset
displayed). Data courtesy of CGG Cornerstone 3D.
Figure 6.3a. Horizon slice near to Top Forties over the greater Courageous area
through a Frequency Decomposition volume. The narrow channel supplying sediment to
the west of Courageous is labelled A, whilst the broader channel round the east of the
Courageous high labelled B, indicates flow south over the east of Courageous and forms
a fan of grey and blue in this image (CGGV Cornerstone - input seismic dataset
displayed). Data courtesy of CGG Cornerstone 3D.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 14 of 23
Figure 6.3b. Top Forties reservoir level in a high frequency Frequency Decomposition
volume, computed assuming frequencies were present that had previously not been seen
or were shown to be at least 30dB below the dominant. The visible lineations,
highlighted with white arrows, represent possible structural or stratigraphic boundaries in
the reservoir (CGGV Cornerstone - input seismic dataset displayed). Data courtesy of
CGG Cornerstone 3D.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 15 of 23
Figure 6.3c. Timeslice 160ft below Top Forties through a Frequency Decomposition
volume. Detail of some of the channels that feed Courageous are highlighted in green
and yellow. The blend uses 50Hz, 60Hz and 80Hz in Red, Green and Blue channels. The
image also shows some of the detail still visible in the high frequency tail of the
frequency spectrum at reservoir level (CGGV Cornerstone - input seismic dataset
displayed). Data courtesy of CGG Cornerstone 3D.
6.2. Hydrocarbons Initially In Place
The Courageous reservoir is the Palaeocene Forties Sandstone comprising interbedded
deep marine sandstones and shales. Four major biostratigraphically defined reservoirs
zones have been interpreted and correlated semi-regionally, based upon a framework of
flooding surfaces represented by shales. The Courageous discovery is located within the
distal and marginal part of the Forties Fan, with reservoir sands deposited by turbidite
lobes. The sand prone parts of these lobes are present around the northern and eastern
flanks of the Courageous structure but are non-reservoir in their distal parts across the
south of the discovery. Well based average Net to Gross (net reservoir) ranges between
45% and 63%, average porosity ranges between 16% and 20% whilst average water
saturation is elevated, ranging between 53% and 79% (net reservoir). Permeability
ranges between 0.01mD and 170mD.
The top reservoir map is shown in Figure 6.4. This is not the top Forties Formation but
the first Forties reservoir sand in this area and represents the updated depth structure,
incorporating the 30/2a-11 appraisal well drilled in 2014. Both the static and dynamic
P90, P50 and P10 models were updated with this surface (Figure 6.5) and a depth
uncertainty workflow was undertaken to confirm that these models sat appropriately
within the GRV range, used as a proxy for STOIIP. This built upon an uncertainty
workflow undertaken prior to the 30/2a-11 appraisal well, which combined a multiple
scenario static modelling approach with a probabilistic dynamic approach, undertaken to
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 16 of 23
assess the impact of the key subsurface uncertainties of reservoir architecture, free-
water level and development well productivity.
Figure 6.4. Post-appraisal Top F7 depth map, which represents the top reservoir (not a
direct comparison with Top Forties). The 30/2a-11 well resulted in the eastern terrace of
Courageous being significantly deeper than prognosed.
Figure 6.5. Post-appraisal cross-section through the 3D static model, highlighting the
change in top reservoir structure due to the 30/2a-11 appraisal well, facilitated within the
model by use of an Active Cell property as is shown.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 17 of 23
Table 6.1 shows the range of in-place oil and gas volumes for the Courageous discovery,
based upon the post 30/2a-11 update.
Hydrocarbons in Place P90 P50 P10
STOIIP (MMbbl) 59 82 113
GIIP (Bscf) 156 220 300
Total (MMboe) 86 120 165
Table 6.1. Courageous discovery HIIP summary.
6.3. Resources and Production Forecast
From the assessment completed in Q1 2014, it was concluded that the downside case for
the Courageous project carried too much risk, hence de-risking of the project was
required.
The presence of hydrocarbon in the western and eastern areas of the reservoir carried a
high degree of uncertainty, related predominantly to the presence and distribution of
sand. The technical assessment indicated the best location for the appraisal well was in
the eastern area of the discovery, because of larger in-place hydrocarbon volumes and a
conceptual model of improved reservoir quality compared with the western area.
Additionally, an appraisal side-track could reach the Audacious discovery from a well
located in 30/2a. A commitment well was however pending on the 30/1g block,
associated with the P.2054 licence award in the 27th round. On the basis of the
technical/economical assessment of the western and eastern appraisal locations, a
request was made to DECC to move the commitment well from 30/1g to 30/2a.
Approval to move the commitment well location was granted in July 2014.
Following the evaluation of 30/2a-11, which encountered top reservoir 78ft deeper than
prognosed, the static model was updated and numerical simulation work undertaken to
assess potential field development plans for Courageous. The base case Courageous
development consists of three horizontal development wells, each with 6,000ft reservoir
sections, located in the central area of the discovery, where in-place volumes have been
proven by wells 30/2a-5, 30/2a-5Y, 30/2a-9 and 3/2a-9Z. Hydraulic fracture stimulation
of the base case reservoir model was evaluated using multi-stage fracs in the horizontal
section of the wells but this was not considered as the base case development scenario.
Ultimate recovery P90 P50 P10
Gas (Bscf) 27.2 41.1 52.3
Oil (MMbbl) 6.7 11.3 16.2
Hydrocarbons (MMboe) 11.4 18.4 25.2
Table 6.2. Courageous Ultimate Recoverable Resources Summary.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 18 of 23
6.4. Well Engineering Overview
Prior to the drilling of the 30/2a-11 appraisal well in 2014, the reference case
development concept assumed a phased drilling approach, with four Courageous gas
lifted subsea production wells drilled prior to first oil and a further production well to be
drilled in the second year of production. This development concept required two drill
centres, with two wells planned from a Western centre and three from an Eastern centre.
Subsequently, the production well targets were updated to reflect the results of 30/2a-
11. The most south-easterly planned production well was removed from the
development concept and the orientation of the reservoir sections of the remaining wells
altered. A single drill centre, comprising three production wells was the resultant
reference case development concept, as shown in Figure 6.6.
Figure 6.6. Single drill centre production well trajectories. These wells all target areas
of the Courageous discovery which have been proven by the appraisal wells.
No significant flow assurance issues have been identified for Courageous. It should
however be noted that production chemistry studies performed to date have focused on
pipeline and facilities issues rather than any downhole issues. Potential downhole issues
are discussed below.
Courageous oil has a Wax Appearance Temperature of 31.5-36.5ºC, indicating that wax
formation will not present an issue for the lower completion (reservoir temperature
136oC) nor for the upper completion during normal production operations.
Based on crude assay data from atmospheric oil sample 1.30 (well 30/2a-5) the
Courageous Asphaltene (C7) content, measured by IP143, is 0.15% m/m. Asphaltenes
are therefore not expected to pose a risk to the lower completion.
From the ion analysis of water samples from well 30/2a-5, it is apparent that there could
be a risk of scale formation (particularly calcite scale) in the production flowlines and/or
wells. Calcite scale risk may be exacerbated above the gas lift injection mandrels, due to
the introduction of lift gas with a lower CO2 mol% than the Courageous gas. This has yet
to be confirmed by detailed calcite scale prediction modelling. Halite scale risk is deemed
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 19 of 23
to be low due to the relatively low TDS of Courageous formation water (~100,000).
However, the anticipated high volumes of gas production and high reservoir temperature
mean that a halite scale risk review is recommended. Sand production has not been
experienced in any of the DSTs and geomechanical studies suggest significant sand face
failure is not expected under production conditions.
Courageous crude oil has a low water content. Later in field life, shearing of the oil and
produced water across the reservoir / well completion could lead to the formation of
stable emulsions. This has not been explored by production chemistry to date, but a risk
review is recommended.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 20 of 23
6.5. Development Concepts and Exports
The pre-appraisal Courageous discovery recoverable resources (P50 ~30 MMboe) align
with other fields in the North Sea that have historically been developed as tiebacks to 3rd
party host platforms. Figure 6.7 shows the available hosts in the area.
Figure 6.7. 3rd Party Tieback Options.
Preliminary flow assurance work suggests that 30km is the upper limit for a subsea tie-
back due to thermal (wax), slugging and hydraulic issues. At this point, the option to
produce Courageous via existing subsea infrastructure (e.g. Blane) or HP/HT wellhead
platforms (e.g. Jade) in the area is considered unlikely to be feasible, given the specific
flow assurance requirements.
Initial host discussions have been held with the relevant infrastructure operators within a
30km radius with a view to gauging the likely modifications required to integrate
Courageous fluids. Shearwater, Elgin and Judy have all stated that a Bridge Linked
Platform (BLP) will be required to access the main platform processing systems. Elgin
and Judy both have identified issues in providing a bridge landing point and therefore
technical feasibility is yet to be demonstrated. Shearwater would appear to be the most
likely host for a BLP in the area given that a bridge landing point was included in the
original design of Shearwater ‘A’ and the concept has been studied for a number of other
fields. Economic screening suggests that Courageous cannot support the CAPEX
associated with a BLP on its own and therefore some form of joint development would be
required to share development costs.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 21 of 23
The reference concept development case for Courageous is a tie-back to the Stella
facilities. The first phase of the Greater Stella Area (GSA) development of
Stella/Harrier/Hurricane is expected to start-up mid-2016. The development will see a
refit semi-sub (FPF-1) stationed over the main Stella field with oil and gas exported to
Norpipe (following initial period of tanker export) and CATS respectively. A schematic of
the development is shown in Figure 6.8.
Figure 6.8. Greater Stella Area Development Schematic.
Initial discussions with Ithaca have identified that it may be possible to use the reception
facilities (risers, inlet heater, separator, PWT) pre-installed for the Hurricane field giving
Courageous access to approximately 20 Mbpd liquid and 30 MMscfd gas processing
capacity. Hurricane is currently under appraisal and may now tie-in subsea via the Main
Drill Centre (MDC) manifold to access higher gas processing capacity through the
Stella/Harrier inlet system.
Preliminary flow assurance indicates that a Pipe-in-Pipe system will be required to
maintain fluid temperatures above the Wax Appearance Temperature (WAT) for all but
the shortest tie-back distances. Table 6.3 summarises the expected field architecture.
Pipeline Nominal Diameter Design Pressure Material Insulation
Production
Main: 10”-14”
(depending on host)
Infield: 6”- 8”
310 barg CRA Pipe-In-Pipe
Gas Lift Main: 4”
Infield: 3” Host Dependant Carbon Steel N/A
Electro-hydraulic
Umbilical Approx. 140mm OD - - -
Table 6.3. Provisional Courageous Flow-line Requirements.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 22 of 23
7. Resource and Risk Summary
The only prospectivity identified in the post-Tertiary sub-area of licence P.098 are the
Courageous and Audacious discoveries. The resource summaries for these discoveries
are shown in Table 7.1 and 7.2.
Recoverable Resources (MMboe) P90 P50 P10
Pre-appraisal 11.9 30.5 47.6
Post-appraisal (Q1 2015) 11.4 18.4 25.2
Table 7.1. Courageous discovery resource summary pre and post the 30/2a-11 appraisal
well.
Resource and Risk Summary
Discovery Name
Stratigraphic level
Unrisked recoverable resources Geological Chance of Success
Risked P50
(MMboe)
Oil (MMstb) Gas (Bcf)
L M H L M H
Courageous Forties Fm 6.7 11.3 16.2 27.2 41.1 52.3 100% 18.4
Audacious Forties Fm 4.5 8.12 17.9 2.4 4.4 9.9 50% 4.5
Table 7.2. Resource and risk summary – Courageous and Audacious. The Audacious
discovery volumes shown represent the pre 30/2a-11 appraisal well assessment. They
are considered to have been negatively impacted by the appraisal result.
Courageous Licence Relinquishment Report
Page 23 of 23
8. Conclusions
At this point in time, Maersk Oil cannot see a reasonable route for economic development
of the Courageous discovery that can be achieved within the stipulated licence timeframe
due to the combination of a) the limited size of the proven recoverable volumes following
the appraisal well drilled end of 2014 and b) the current low oil and gas prices.
In terms of remaining prospectivity, Maersk Oil does not identify any other undeveloped
discoveries or prospects which are economically attractive. In particular, appraisal well
30/2a-11 has down-graded the size of the Forties Sandstone reservoired Audacious
discovery (30/2a-6), which is considerably smaller than the Courageous discovery. The
Audacious discovery was the only other significant potential resource recognised in the
post-Tertiary sub-area.
In agreement with GDF SUEZ E&P UK Ltd, Maersk Oil are consequently surrendering sub-
area post-Tertiary of licence P.098.
Maersk Oil confirms that DECC is free to publish this report and that all 3rd party
ownership rights have been considered and appropriately cleared for publication
purposes.