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Reliability Data Collection and Use in Risk and Availability Assessment Proceedings of the 5th eu~DCltf.l Conference Heidelberg, Germany, April 9-11, 1986
Editor H.-I Wingender
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York Tokyo
Dr. Hans Jorg Wingender NUKEMGmbH Rodenbacher Chaussee 6 P. O. Box 11 00 80 6450 HanauI1, FRG
ISBN-13:978-3-642-82775-4 e-ISBN-13 :978-3-642-82773-0 DOl: 10.1007/978-3-642-82773-0
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically those of translation, r!lprinting, re-use of illustrations, broadcasting, reproduction by photocopying machine or similar means, and storage in data banks. Under§ 54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use, a fee is payable to "Verwertungsgesellschaft Wort", Munich.
© Springer·Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg 1986 Softcover reprint of tbe hardcover 1st edition 1986
The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
216113020-543210
Eu~[)at,", Programme Committee H.1. Wingender, Organizing Chairman, NUKEM (FRG) A. Amendola, Joint Research Centre (CEq G. C. Bello, TEMA-ENI (I) P. Bockholts, TNO (NL) C. A. Campbell, British Petrol (GB) V. Ionescu, Motor Columbus (CH) A. Z. Keller, University of Bradford (GB) A. Leroy, Total (F) O. Lindwall, Volvo (S) T. R. Moss, RM Consultants (GB) A. L. Smith, Reliability Consultant (CH) S. Vikman, Volvo (S)
The Conference was supported by
~ Commission of the European Communities ~ JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
Ispra Establishment
organized by
I.' IIUKEM NUKEM GmbH HANAU FRG
'-YI
Foreword
Reliability data collection and its use in risk and availability
assessment is a subject of increasing importance. The founders of
EuReDatA, and in particular, Arne Ullman, the originator 'and first
Chairman of the Association, recognised the need for a body capable of
acting as a catalyst and providing a unified approach to this subject.
It is therefore a prevailing objective of the European Reliability
Databank Association to initiate and support contact between experts,
companies and institutions active in reliability engineering and
research.
Although the first and principle interest of EuReDatA is reliability
data and data banks, the Association is aware that these are tools
that are used with others to establish and maintain reliability and
safety.
It is with this objective that EuReDatA regularly holds conferences
and seminars covering a range of reliability topics.
C.A. Campbell
EuReDatA Chairman
H.J. Wingender
Organiser, Editor
Contents
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEWS
Data Situation and the Quality of Risk Assessment (FRG)
A. Birkhofer, K. Koberlein (GRS) ..••••....•.•...••.....•.•.. 3
Reliability Engineering in Europe (CEC)
G. Volta (JRC-Ispra) •...••••... •...........•••.•....•.••..••. 16
1984: A Year of Industrial Catastrophies. Would Preliminary Risk Analysis Have Avoided Many of them? (Italy)
G.C. Bello (TEMA-ENI), B. Frattini (ICARD) .....•..•..•..•..• 24
Status of the oREDA Project (France)
A. Leroy (TOTAL) .•.............•.•.•...•.................•.. 38
EuReDatA - Project Groups: An Overview of Objectives and Results (CEC)
T. Luisi (JRC-Ispra) •...•.•....•.•.•.•.•••••..•..•••.•••.•.• 47
A Guide to Reliability Data Collection, Validation and Storage (U.K.)
B. Stevens (UKAEA-NCSR) •...•.•.•.....•.•....•.•.•......•.•.. 57
The Use of Nuclear Power Plant Operating Experience in Probabilistic Safety Assessment
L. Lederman (IAEA) .••••..•....•.•••••.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•..• 66
"IX
CHAPTER 2: RELIABILITY DATA BANKS (PROJECTS AND EXPERIENCE)
Reliability Data Bank in Electronics: ITALTEL Experience over 10 Years of Operation (Italy)
G. Turconi (ITALTEL) .................•.................•.... 77
Component Event Data Bank Fast Breeder Reactors (Italy)
G. Cambi (Univ. of Bologna), R. Righini (ENEA), P. Sola, G. Zappelini (NIER) ......................•......•..........• 83
The Organization and Collection of System's Data in Fusion (U.S.A.)
C.W. Maynard, Z. Musicki (Univ. of Wisconsin) ............... 90
HARIS - an Information System for Reliability and Risk Studies (U.K.) "
T.R. Moss, V. Piotrovicz (R.M. Consultants) ................. 100
Classification Scheme for Process Plants (Italy, CEC)
G.C. Bello (TEMA), L. Ferrario (JRC-Ispra) , B. Frattini (ICARD), S. Zanelli (Univ. of Pisa) .... ; ...........•...•••.. 110
Merging of Heterogeneous Data Sources on Nuclear Power Plant Operating Experience (CEC, Italy)
H.W. Kalfsbeek (JRC-Ispra), M. Melis, B. Lisanti (EDRA-Milano) ............................................... 120
A Survey on Industrial Accident Data Bases (Netherlands, U.K., Italy, CEC)
P. Bockholts, I. Heidebrink (TNo), T.R. Moss, J.A. Butler (R.M. Cons.), C. Fiorentini (TECSA), P.Bastianini (JRC-Ispra) .........................•............•............... 130
Data Bank of Events with the Rijnmond Process Industry (Netherlands)
D. Goos, E.F. Blocker (Central Environmental Control Agency Rijnmond) ................................................... 137
x
SONATA: An Accident Data Base for Industrial Activities and Transport. Scope, Organization and Main Results (Italy)
E. Galatola, V. Colombari, G.C. Bello (TEMA-ENI) •.•••••••••• 146
CHAPTER 3: RELIABILITY DATA PROCESSING
Computerized Data Handling and Data Storage on Production Control of Aircraft Components and Test Equipment Reliability (F.R.G.)
K. JUngling, A. Maurer (NUKEM) ....•.••.•.•...•••.••.••..•.•• 159
Reliability Data Collection on IC and VLSI Devices Tested under Accelerated Life Conditions (Canada)
D.M. Barry, M. Meniconi (Lakehead Univ. Ontario)
Field Data as a Correction of Mil-Handbook Estimates (Italy)
C.A. Clarotti, M. de Marinis (ENEA), A. Manella (Garanzia
165
Qualita) .•.....••••.•.•.••.•.•••..•.•.•.•.•••.•.••.•.•..•••• 177
Developing Replacement Policies for Failing Components Using Discriminant Analysis (U.K.)
D. Jerwood, F.A. Georgiakodis (Univ. of Bradford) .......•... 186
Statistical Inference by the Use of Truncated Exponential Distribution: Estimates with Failure and Survival Times (Argentina)
D. Chiavassa, M. Masera (INGAR - Santa Fe)
Analysis of the Component Event Data Bank (CEDB) of the European Reliability Data System (ERDS): General Lines of Investigation and Objectives (CEC)
194
A. Besi (JRC - Ispra) •..•.••••••.•••••......•••.......••.... 204
Data Treatment and Trend Analysis at SKI (Schweden)
R. Nyman, L. Carlsson (SKI-Swedish Nuclear Power Inspec-torate) ••.•.•....••.••...••.•.•••••.•.••....•......•.•.••... 214
Multiple Correspondence Analysis of Abnormal Event Data from Nuclear Power Plants
XI
H.W. Kalfsbeek (JRC-Ispra) .•.••.......•..•. ~ ......•.•...•.•. 229
CHAPTER 4: SAfETY AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT (CASE STUDIES)
New Developments in Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities (F.R.G.)
R. Leicht, H.J. Wingender (NUKEM) ....•....•....•..•.•.•..••• 243
Use of PRA Methods in the Safety Analysis of Nuclear Waste Facilities (F.R.G.)
R. Leicht, J. Neuber, B. Puttke (NUKEM) •.•••.••••....••••••. 253
Use of the Steady States Method in the Probabilistic Safety Analysis of an Encapsulation Plant for Spent Fuel Elements (F .R.G.)
R. Leicht, A.R. Neghabian, B. Puttke (NUKEM) •••.•..••..•..•. 263
Assessment of PSA Methods and Procedures: a Wide Scoping European Research Programme (CEC)
A. Amendola (JRC-Ispra) ........•.•....••...........•.....•.• 273
A Feedback of the Probabilistic Safety Study (S.P.S.) into P.U.N. Design (Italy)
P. Moretti, M. Prelati (ENEL)
The Influence of Reliability and Safety on System Design (U. K. )
281
P. Grimshaw, H. Hamlin (Normalair-Garrett Ltd) ....••.......• 289
The Viggen Aircraft Radar, Reliability Achievement (Sweden)
G. Marklin, G. Holmberg (Ericsson Radio Systems AB) .....•... 301
XII
Relevance of Availability Evaluation Methodologies to Consumer Products Manufacturing Systems (Iraq)
N.A. Stipho (Min. of Light Industries, Baghdad)
Availability Study of a Polyethylene Plant (Italy)
D. Barone (ENICHEM), L. Negro, N. Piccinini (Politecnico
314
Torino) ••••••.•••••.•.•••.••••.•••.•.•.•.••••..•••.•.•..•••• 322
Availability and Risk Assessment of Power and Chemical Plants Utilizing PEAT (Finland)
H. Perhonen (Techn. Res. Centre VTT), A. Lyytikainen ...••••. 332
Risk Analysis of a Large Tank Farm of Liquefied Petroleum Gases (Italy)
S. Mazzocchi (TEMA-ENI), M. Campana (TRR) •...•....•...•...•. 344
Assessment of Accident Frequencies and Consequences for a New Danish Tunnel (Denmark)
K.E. Petersen (RISO Nat. Lab.)
Safety Assessment of Offshore Installations Using a Computer Model (Norway)
357
J.E. Vinnem, S. Haugen, L.R. Saetran (Sikte C A/S) ••••••...• 364
Reliability Data Required for a Seismic Risk Assessment (U.S.A.)
J.E. Wells (Univ. of California, LLNL) ...••.•..•..•....••••. 374
Structural and Mechanical Reliability Assessment in Ship Design and Operation (F.R.G.)
C. Oestergaard (Germanischer Lloyd Hamburg) .••••••.....•..•• 384
Data Acquisition, Probabilistic Design and Safety Margins at the Eastern ScheIdt Barrier Project (Netherlands)
F.C. Hamer, J.K. Vrijling (Ministry of Transport and Public Works) .••••...•••.•....••.•.....•..••....•••.......••••.•••. 394
XIII
CHAPTER 5: DATA AND UNCERTAINTIES
On the Correlation of Failure Rates (U.S.A)
G. Apostolakis, P. Moieni (Univ. of California L.A.) •..•.... 407
Intelligent Use of Sparse Data for Risk Assessment of Rare Events, a Case Study (Norway)
J.E. Vinnem (Sikte C A/S)
The Choice of Appropriate Reliability Data as a Descision Problem (F.R.G.)
414
P. Doerre, H.C. Sobottka (KWU) ........•..•.•............•••. 422
Collection and Usage of Reliability Data for Risk Analysis of LNG Storage Tanks (F .R.G.)
D. Klingmuller (Bilfinger + Berger Bau AG) ...•..•.••..•..... 431
Accuracy of Reliability Data for LPG System Components (Netherlands)
J. van der Horst (TND) ......•.•.•............•..••.•.•.•.•.• 441
CHAPTER 6: HUMAN RELIABILITY
Using a Simulation Model to Represent the Time Dependence of Human Reliability (F.R.G.)
St. Albers (Univ. of Hannover)
Human Performance: What Improvement from Human Reliability Assessment (U.K.)
445
R.H. Pope (CEGB) ..•••..•.•.•.•.•..•....•..••.............•.• 455
Fundamental Constraints on Some Event Data (U.K.)
I.A. Watson (UKAEA-SRS) 466
XIV
CHAPTER 7: RELIABILITY MODELLING AND TECHNIQUES
Measures of Aging in Model Construction and Identification (U. K.)
M. Newby (Univ. of Bradford) ••••...•.•.•••.•.•.••••...•••.•• 493
Identification of the Important Parameters of Complex Systems by a Bayesian Approach (CEC, Italy)
C. Calvi Parisetti (Univ. of Parma), L. Olivi (JRC-Ispra) 501
A Reliability Modelling and Prediction Methodology for Use in Aircraft Design (U.K.)
V.C. Serghides, J.P. Fielding (Cranfield Inst. of Tech-nology) .••••••••••••.•.••.•••.••••.•••.••••..•..•........••• 507
A Reliability Simulation Language for Reliability Analysis (U. K. )
N.D. Deans, A.J. Miller (R. Gordons Inst. of Technology), D. Mann (UDI) ..••..••.•....•.•.••.....•.•....••.•.•••.....•• 516
Study of a PWR Component Cooling ~ater System by the DISCO Methodology (France)
R. Coudray, B. Duchemin, M. J. de Villeneuve (CEA-CEN) •....•• 526
Program Structure and Software Reliability (F.R.G.)
G. Becker, L. Camarinopoulos (Techn. Univ. of Berlin)
Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Reference to an Onshore Separating Plant) (Italy)
535
G. Cambi (Univ. of Bologna), P. Sola, G. Zappelini (NIER) 545
Techniques for Accident Sequence Quantification in PRA Studies (Italy)
A.M. Amendola, M. Genco (ANSALDO-NIRA), S. Contini (SYRECO) •••••••••.•••....••....•..••.....•.••.•.••..•.•.•... 554
Plant and Control System Reliability and Risk Model (Finland)
xv
1. Niemela (Techn. Res. Centre-VTT) •.••......•..•...•.•.••.• 564
Interactive Reliability Assessment Using an Integrated Reliability Data Bank (U.K.)
R.N. Allan, A.M. Whitehead (Univ. of Manchchester) •..•...... 573
Coupling Markov and Fault Tree Techniques for Calculating System Reliability (Italy)
C.A. Clarotti, G. Casadei, G. de Canio (ENEA) .•...••.•..•..• 582
Modelling a Drilling Procedure (France)
R. Grollier-Baron (IFP), A Leroy (TOTAL), J.P. Signoret (SNEA), L. Thomas-Collignon (SERI-Renault) ................•. 591
A Performance Oriented Reliability Model of a Pumping Station in a Fire Protection System (Italy)
A. Bobbio (Inst. Elettrotecnico Nazionale), A. Verna (Politecnico di Torino) .......................•.•.........•• 606
Application Areas of the DYLAM Approach to the Safety Analysis of Chemical Processes (CEC, Argentina)
N. Labath (INGAR), Z. Nivoliaitou (JRC-Ispra) ..........•.•.. 615
Proportional Hazard Modelling in the Analysis of Transmission Failure Statistics (U.K.)
S.J. Argent, P.T. Manning, S.G. Ryan (CEGB), A. Bendell, D. Wightman (Trent Polytechnic), J. Marshall (Loughborough Univ.) ..........................................•.......•... 624
An Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Techniques to the Safety Analysis of a PWR Nuclear Power Plant (Italy)
M. Pozzoli (EDRA) 634
XVI
CHAPTER 8: RELIABILITY FEEDBACK IN SYSTEMS DESIGN AND OPERATION
Studies of the Economic Impact of Unreliability (Norway)
0. Michelsen, U.N. Samdal, T. Uthus (Norsk Hydro A/S), S. Hoyle (Yard Consult) .•...•....•.•..........•............. 647
The Role of Instrumentation in Incidents (Netherlands)
P. Bockhol ts (TNO) .••......•..•..............•.......•...... 655
Control Room Ventilation Design Improvement Following Alto Lazio Station Reliability Analysis (Italy)
V. Cavicchia, M. Pennazzi (ENEL), P. Vallero (ANSALDO) ....•. 663
Reliable Design and Operation of the ECC System for a Heavy Water Moderated Nuclear Research Reactor (Jugoslavia, F.R.G.)
M.G. Lalovic (Univ. of Novi Sad), G.G. Weber (Nuclear Research Centre Karlsruhe) ..•............................... 671
Optimized Preventive Replacement Policy for Large Cascade Systems (F.R.G.)
H.H. Kretzen (INTERATOM) ....................•..........•.... 681
CHAPTER 9: INTELLIGENT INTERFACES FOR DATA RETRIEVAL
Navigational High-Level Interface for an Expert Data Base (Netherlands)
J. Karczewski (Delft Univ.) . .. .. .. .. .•.•• . .•. •. • .. .. .. .. .•.. 691
Artificial Intelligence Techniques for the European Reliability Data System (ERDS) (CEC)
F. Bastin, s. Capobianchi, S. Carlesso, A.D. Koletsos, T. Barbas (JRC-Ispra) . .. .. .•. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .•.. .•. .. . .. 699
Expert Systems and an Application for Advanced Data Retrieval (Netherlands)
L.M. Schrijnen (TNO) ....•...........•...................... 712