Relevant Psychological Factors for Behavioral …eccaconf.tutech.eu/presentations/PDF/ECCA2013-4c-3_2_2-Pansa .pdf · Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel,

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany

Relevant Psychological Factors for Behavioral

Adaptation to Climate Change

Ramune Pansa and Andreas Ernst

European Climate Change Adaptation Conference - March 18 - 20, 2013

Hamburg, Germany


2

Outline

1) Project

2) Survey and Theory

3) Selected Results

4) Conclusion and Outlook


3

Project setup – KUBUS1

Multi-Agent-

Model

Cooperating Research Projects

Discussion,

Evaluation

Identification of

Relevant Topics

Survey of Psych.

Indicators & Processes

Geographically

Differentiated,

Socio-

Demographic

Data

Scenarios

& Simulation

Providing Data

Quantitative

Climate

Scenarios

1 supporting regional adaptation to climate change by socio-scientific surveys, simulation and scenarios


Aims

• Adaptation requires the willingness to perform climate adaptation behavior

• We are analyzing…

– The perception of climate change and risk perception

– The behavior intention for performing climate adaptation behavior

• Challenges are…

– Experiencing climate change

– Storm, heavy rain, heat waves

– Temporal trap

• Meaning for the empirical survey

– Which variables have an impact on different behavioral intentions?

– Are there differences between lifestyles regarding the willingness to

perform climate adaptation behavior?

4


Excerpt of the Content of the questionnaires

• Perception of Climate Change

– Which extreme weather conditions and consequences do people primarily associate with climate change?

– Estimated temporal occurrence of extreme weather situations (storm, heat, heavy rain)

• Willingness to perform climate adaptation behavior

– Theory of Planned Behavior – specific behavior asked:

o performing short- and long-term behavior

o relocation

o information seeking

o contract insurance against natural hazards

o neighborly support in general and during heat waves

o car sharing / neighborly car pools for daily commute

• Personal traits/characteristics

– CFC (consideration of future consequences; Strathman et al., 1994)

– Lifestyle (Sinus®)

– Social Demographics

5


6

Sample

Pilot

Study

Main Sample

Survey 1 (2010) Survey 2 (2011) Survey 3 (2012)

Sample Size N = 59 (200) N = 446 (2050) N = 446 (2023) N = 485 (2336)

Gender

Distribution

N female = 35 (59%) N female = 249 (56%) N female = 230 (52%) N female = 273 (56%)

N male = 24 (41%) N male = 196 (44%) N male = 211 (48%) N male = 210 (43%)

Mean age 47 (SD = 15.18) 50 (SD = 16.91) 52 (SD = 16.88) 48 (SD = 17.12)


Extension of the theory of planned behavior1

7

Behaviour

Attitude

Subjective

Norm

Social

Norm

Intention

Behavioral

Control

1 Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211.


8

Wea-

ther/

Climate

Comm

uni-

cation/

Obser-

vation

Person / Milieu

Perception of

Climate Change

person itself

closely people

Time Perception

handling uncertainties

Risk Perception


What do you associate with climate change in Northern Hesse?

9

1=“strongly disagree“; 2=“disagree”; 3=“disagree more likely than not“; 4=“agree more likely than not“; 5=“agree“; 6=“strongly agree“


Do you feel strongly affected by climate change in your

region in comparison to other areas? – 3rd survey

10


20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Rain

Heat

Storm

11

At which point in time do you think, that extreme wheather events

will occur in your region?

Age

1st survey

2nd survey

3rd survey

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Rain

Heat

Storm

Year


12

Extended TPB – relevant factors for specific adaptation

behavior – 2nd survey

Behavioral

Control

Attitude

Subjective

Norm

Social

Norm

Intention .18

.05

.56

.16

Attitude

Subjective

Norm

Social

Norm

Intention

Behavioral

Control

.25

.52

.22

Attitude

Subjective

Norm

Social

Norm

Intention

Behavioral

Control

.11

.59

.21

Behavioral

Control

Relocation Long-Term Behavior Short-Term Behavior

R2 =.57 R2 =.64 R2 =.75


® Sinus Sociovision 2009

10 SINUS® Milieus – 4 Lifestyles

3

2

1

Consumption Materialists

11%

Establisheds 10%

Ground Breakers 8%

Post Materialists 10%

Pleasure Seekers 11%

Modern Mainstream 16%

Modern Performers 9%

Traditionals 14%

6%

Conser- vatives

5%

Higher

Middle

Lower

Social Status

Basic Values

A Tradition

Sense of Duty and Order

C Re-orientation

Multiple Options,

Experimentation, Paradoxes

GDR- Nostal- gia

B Modernization

Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure

13




3

2

1


11%

Establisheds 10%

Ground Breakers 8%





Traditionals 14%

6%

Conser- vatives

5%

Higher

Middle

Lower

Social Status

Basic Values

A Tradition


C Re-orientation

Multiple Options,


GDR- Nostal- gia

B Modernization


14

liberal and intellectual interests

prefer security and orderliness Post-Materialists

Profile: - age = young families- income = middle to high- value “modern” = high- value “conservative” = low- importance “price” = low to middle- importance “environment”= middle to high- importance “peers” = low

Post-Materialists

Profile: - age = young families- income = middle to high- value “modern” = high- value “conservative” = low- importance “price” = low to middle- importance “environment”= middle to high- importance “peers” = low




3

2

1


11%

Establisheds 10%

Ground Breakers 8%





Traditionals 14%

6%

Conser- vatives

5%

Higher

Middle

Lower

Social Status

Basic Values

A Tradition


C Re-orientation

Multiple Options,


GDR- Nostal- gia

Leading Lifestyles

B Modernization


15

liberal and intellectual interests

prefer security and orderliness

Traditionals

Profile: - age = older- income = low- value “modern” = low- value “conservative” = high- importance “price” = middle to high- importance “environment” = low- importance “peers” = middle to high




3

2

1


11%

Establisheds 10%

Ground Breakers 8%





Traditionals 14%

6%

Conser- vatives

5%

Higher

Middle

Lower

Social Status

Basic Values

A Tradition


C Re-orientation

Multiple Options,


GDR- Nostal- gia

Traditional Lifestyles

Leading Lifestyles

Mainstream Lifestyles Hedonistic

Lifestyles

B Modernization


16


17

1=“strongly disagree“; 2=“disagree” 3=“disagree more likely than not“; 4=“agree more likely than not“; 5=“agree“; 6=“strongly agree“

Comparison between lifestyles for specific climate adaptation

behavior – 2nd survey


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Conclusion

- Psychological factors are important for adaptation behavior to climate

change

- Perception of the impacts of climate change (in comparison to other

parts of the globe) by the Northern Hesse population is weak

- there are tendencies towards differences in behavioral intention between

lifestyles

Outlook

- implementation of empirical data into the agent based modeling

- data analysis (comparisons between the three surveys)

- qualitative analysis

- project end June 2013


19

Thank You!

Email: [email protected]

Internet: www.cesr.de

Documents

Relevant Psychological Factors for Behavioral …eccaconf.tutech.eu/presentations/PDF/ECCA2013-4c-3_2_2-Pansa .pdf · Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel,