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European Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2013
Integrating Climate into Action
March 18-20, 2013, Hamburg, Germany
ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSON IRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN SOUTHERNPORTUGAL
ROLIM J., TEIXEIRA J., CATALÃO J., SHAHIDIAN S.Department of Sciences and Biosystems Engineering, School of Agronomy (ISA), Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal; [email protected], [email protected]
Introduction
� For the south of Portugal is projected along the XXI century a rise in air temperature and a reduction in annual rainfall;
� Increase of the frequency and severity of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, etc.).(droughts, heat waves, etc.).
� A study was conducted on the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture, in the Alentejo region;
� water requirements, irrigation requirements, water deficit;
� Irrigation systems design;� Impacts on systems dimensions; definition of safety margins;
Methodology I
� The methodology used is based on the following software tools:� IScenarios – Information system that manages the climate
change scenarios data;
� Interpolador – Software for spatial interpolation of � Interpolador – Software for spatial interpolation of meteorological variables;
� IrrigRotation – Soil water balance model for crops rotations;
� Enrolador – Software program for the design and simulation of travelling gun irrigation systems;
Methodology II
IScenarios
Weather StationsNetwork
Climate ModelsHadRM3P;HIRHAMh;HIRHAMhh;
Climate Scenarios(Reference, A2, B2)
Climate Anomalies
Historical Data Series:Temperature;Wind;Radiation;Relative Humidity;Precipitation;
�Schematic representation of the methodology;
IrrigRotation
FrequencyAnalysis
Interpolador
GISSoils Map
Precipitation;
Future Climate Series
Interpolador
Enrolador
Case studies and base data I
� Meteorological data:� Observed data,1961-90 period (daily):
� Évora;
� Beja.
� Climate change scenarios, 2071-2100 period
SPAIN
FRANCE
PORTUGAL
MEDITERRANEANSEA
ATLANTICOCEAN
� Climate change scenarios, 2071-2100 period (monthly), PRUDENCE proj.:
� HadRM3P (scenarios A2 and B2), 50 km;
� HIRHAMh (scenario A2), 25 km;
� HIRHAMhh (scenario A2), 12 km.
� Meteorological variables considered:� Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar
radiation, precipitation.
Alentejo
Case studies and base data II
� Soils:� Évora: Pmg mediterranean soil;
� Beja: Bpc clay soil.
� Beja � Évora
Case studies and base data III
� The simulations were performed for two case studies:� Évora (Évora weather station + Pmg soils);
� Beja (Beja weather station + Bpc soils);
Crops rotations:� Crops rotations:� Sunflower-Wheat-Barley (S-W-B);
� Sugar beet-Maize-Tomato-Wheat (SB-M-T-W);� Current duration of the phenological phases;
� Long cycle varieties;
50%
60%
70%
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Évora
50%
60%
70%
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Beja
Irrigation requirements variation
HadRM3P A2
Beja/Bpc Évora/Pmg
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
SB-M-T-W Sugar beet
SB-M-T-W Maize
SB-M-T-W Tomato
S-W-B Sunf lower
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Crops
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
SB-M-T-W Sugar beet
SB-M-T-W Maize
SB-M-T-W Tomato
S-W-B Sunf lower
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Crops
HadRM3P A2
HadRM3P B2
HIRHAMh A2
HIRHAMhh A2
Water deficit variation (rainfed crops)Baseline HadRM3P HadRM3P HIRHAMh HIRHAMhh1961-90 A2 B2 A2 A2
Case study Rotation Crop
WDef(mm)
WDef(%)
WDef(mm)
WDef(%)
WDef(mm)
WDef(%)
WDef(mm)
WDef(%)
WDef(mm)
WDef(%)
Beja SB-M-T-W Wheat 134 19% 317 38% 245 31% 331 38% 329 38%S-W-B Wheat 139 20% 352 43% 274 35% 375 43% 374 43%S-W-B Barley 67 15% 241 46% 191 37% 198 40% 200 40%
Évora SB-M-T-W Wheat 245 38% 432 56% 354 49% 454 57% 444 56%S-W-B Wheat 252 40% 436 57% 362 50% 481 59% 472 59%S-W-B Barley 91 23% 221 46% 195 41% 195 44% 188 42%
HadRM3P A2
HadRM3P B2
HIRHAMh A2
HIRHAMhh A2
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
SB-M-T-W Wheat S-W-B Wheat S-W-B Barley
Wat
er d
efic
it va
riatio
n (%
)
Crops
BejaBeja/Bpc
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
SB-M-T-W Wheat S-W-B Wheat S-W-B Barley
Wat
er d
efic
it va
riatio
n (%
)
Crops
ÉvoraÉvora/Pmg
Soil water content – Crops rotation
100
150
200
250
300
(mm
)
Beterraba Milho Tomate Trigo
� Crops Rotation SB-M-T-W; Beja; Bpc soil
Beja/Bpc - BaselineSugar beet Maize Tomato Wheat
0
50
100
30-06-1965 30-06-1966 30-06-1967 30-06-1968 30-06-1969
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
30-06-2075 30-06-2076 30-06-2077 30-06-2078 30-06-2079
(mm
)
Beterraba Milho Tomate Trigo
Beja/Bpc – HadRM3P A2Sugar beet Maize Tomato Wheat
Soil water content - Monoculture
100
150
200
250
300
(mm
)
Trigo Trigo Trigo Trigo
� Wheat monoculture; Beja; Bpc soil
Beja/Bpc - BaselineWheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
0
50
100
30-06-1965 30-06-1966 30-06-1967 30-06-1968 30-06-1969
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
30-06-2075 30-06-2076 30-06-2077 30-06-2078 30-06-2079
(mm
)
Trigo Trigo Trigo Trigo
Beja/Bpc – HadRM3P A2Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Design flow rate variation (%)
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Des
ign
flow
rate
var
iatio
n (%
) Beja
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Des
ign
flow
rate
var
iatio
n (%
) Évora
0%
5%
10%
SB
-M-T
-W H
adR
M3P
/B2
S-W
-B H
adR
M3P
/B2
S-W
-B H
adR
M3P
/A2
SB
-M-T
-W H
adR
M3P
/A2
SB
-M-T
-W H
IRH
AM
h/A
2
SB
-M-T
-W H
IRH
AM
hh
/A2
S-W
-B H
IRH
AM
h/A
2
S-W
-B H
IRH
AM
hh
/A2
Des
ign
flow
rate
var
iatio
n (%
)
Simulations
0%
5%
10%
SB
-M-T
-W H
adR
M3P
/B2
S-W
-B H
adR
M3P
/B2
S-W
-B H
adR
M3P
/A2
S-W
-B H
IRH
AM
h/A
2
S-W
-B H
IRH
AM
hh
/A2
SB
-M-T
-W H
adR
M3P
/A2
SB
-M-T
-W H
IRH
AM
h/A
2
SB
-M-T
-W H
IRH
AM
hh
/A2
Des
ign
flow
rate
var
iatio
n (%
)
Simulations
Impacts on irrigation systems
Case
study
Crops
Rotation Scenario
Flow rate
(m3/h)
Sprinkler
nozzle
(mm)
Hose diam.
(mm)
Main line
Diam. (mm)
Required
Pressure
(kPa)
Beja SB-M-T-W Baseline 70.6 28 100 127 982
Clay soil SB-M-T-W HadRM3P A2 82.9 30 110 152.4 950
SB-M-T-W HadRM3P B2 73.8 28 110 127 964
SB-M-T-W HiRHAMh A2 82.9 30 110 152.4 950SB-M-T-W HiRHAMh A2 82.9 30 110 152.4 950
SB-M-T-W HiRHAMhh A2 82.9 30 110 152.4 950
S-W-B Baseline 66.7 27.5 100 127 953
S-W-B HadRM3P A2 73.8 28 110 127 964
S-W-B HadRM3P B2 70.6 28 100 127 982
S-W-B HiRHAMh A2 82.9 30 110 152.4 950
S-W-B HiRHAMhh A2 82.9 30 110 152.4 950
0%
5%
10%
Var
iaçã
o da
s ne
cess
idad
es d
e re
ga (
%)
Évora
HadRM3P A20%
5%
10%
Var
iaçã
o da
s ne
cess
idad
es d
e re
ga (
%)
Beja
HadRM3P A2
Seasonal irrigation requirements variation - GDD
Évora/PmgBeja/Bpc
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
-15%
-10%
-5%
B-M-T-T Beterraba
B-M-T-T Milho
B-M-T-T Tomate
G-T-C Girassol
Var
iaçã
o da
s ne
cess
idad
es d
e re
ga (
%)
Culturas
HadRM3P A2
HadRM3P B2
HIRHAMh A2
HIRHAMhh A2
-15%
-10%
-5%
B-M-T-T Beterraba
B-M-T-T Milho
B-M-T-T Tomate
G-T-C Girassol
Var
iaçã
o da
s ne
cess
idad
es d
e re
ga (
%)
Culturas
HadRM3P A2
HadRM3P B2
HIRHAMh A2
HIRHAMhh A2
0%SB-M-T-W Sugar beet
SB-M-T-W Maize
SB-M-T-W Tomato
S-W-B Sunf lower
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Crops
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
0%SB-M-T-W Sugar beet
SB-M-T-W Maize
SB-M-T-W Tomato
S-W-B Sunf lower
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Crops
Irrig
atio
n re
quire
men
ts v
aria
tion
(%)
Conclusions
� Main results:
� A considerable increase in the irrigation requirements;
� Sharp increase in water deficit of the rainfed crops;
� Crops rotations showed the ability to manage the soil � Crops rotations showed the ability to manage the soil water content;� Reduction of the rainfed crops water deficit, when inserted
in irrigated crops rotations;
� Irrigation systems design;� Increase in the design peak flows and in the pipes
diameters.
Thank you
Acknowledgements:
� This work was funded by the Fundação para a Ciência ea Tecnologia (FCT) Doctoral Granta Tecnologia (FCT) Doctoral GrantSFRH/BD/27743/2006 and by the Fundação para aCiência e a Tecnologia (FCT) research project PTDC/AAC-AMB/113639/2009;
� Climate change data have been provided through thePRUDENCE data archive (EVK2-CT2001-00132);
