Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune...Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune (Demonstration Phase) D. S. Pai Head, Climate Division Regional Stakeholder Consultation on Climate Services

Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune (Demonstration Phase)

D. S. Pai Head, Climate Division

Regional Stakeholder Consultation on Climate Services for the Third Pole Region

Holiday Inn Jaipur City Centre, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India 9-11 March 2016

RCC, Pune: Background India Meteorological Department (IMD) established National

Climate Centre (NCC), Pune in 1995 with an objective to provide various climate related services to the country (India).

Since then, NCC has been carrying out many India specific climate related activities like Climate Monitoring and Analysis, Climate Prediction (Seasonal Forecasts), Climate Data Management, and Climate Research. All these activities are limited to cover the complete geographical areas of India.

With an objective to expand climate service activity across south Asia, since May 2013, NCC has started to work as WMO recognized RCC (Pilot Phase) for the south Asia. In this regard, efforts were made to build capacity to perform the mandatory RCC functions. Various mandatory RCC functions performed by RCC, Pune for south Asia is presented here. RCC products are currently made available through IMD, Pune website

(www.imdpune.gov/Clim_RCC_LRF/Index.html).

Operational Long Range Forecasts Based on Statistical Models for India

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Sr. No.

Forecast for Region for which forecast issued Issued in

1 Winter Season (Jan- March) Precipitation

Northwest India December

2 SW Monsoon Season (June to September) Rainfall

Country as a whole April

3 SW Monsoon Season (June to September) Rainfall

Country as a whole June

4 South-West Monsoon Onset Kerala May 5 SW Monsoon Season (June to

September) Rainfall Four broad geographical regions:

Northwest India, Northeast India , Central India and South Peninsula

June

6 SW Monsoon Monthly Rainfall for July and August

Country as a whole June

7 SW Monsoon Second half of the Season (August- September) Rainfall

Country as a whole July

8 September Rainfall Country as a whole August 9 NE Monsoon Season (October to

December) Rainfall South Peninsula September

The operational forecasts are issued using statistical method

Skill of the statistical models currently used for the operational LRF of Monsoon Rainfall over India

The operational forecasts for the 2015 season rainfall over the country as a whole and that over four broad geographical regions (northwest India, central India, northeast India and south Peninsula) were within the limits of the forecasts issued in June and accurate. Similarly, the forecasts for the July as well as that for the rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season over the country as a whole were also accurate. However, the August forecast was an overestimate to the realized rainfall and was not accurate. .

Operational Forecast for 2015 Monsoon Rainfal over Indial & Verification

Performance of Operational Forecast (Empirical Model) for All India Seasonal Rainfall (1988-2015):

Error ≥ 10% in 7 yrs with highest in 2002 (20%) and 1994 (18%). Error in 2009 15%. Ave. absolute error during the last 13 years (2003 -2015) was 5.92% of LPA compared

to that of 7.94% of LPA during the 13 years (1990 -2002) just prior to that period. C.C between the actual and forecast rainfall for (2003 -2015) & (1990-2002) are 0.42 & -

0.24 respectively. During 1990-2002, the forecast within the ±8% of actual values during 9 years. Within

these 9 years, forecast was within ±4% during 5 years. On the other hand during 2003-2015, the forecast was within the ±8% of actual values during 10 years with forecast within ±4% during 7 years. These clearly indicate improvement made in the operational forecast system in the recent 13 years period compared to earlier 13 years period.

27-Apr-16

Statistical Models for SAARC Countries

Bangladesh

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BANGALADESH FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)

MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 907.1

mm

C.V. (1971-2000) = 15.3

RMSE (1971-2000) = 11.46

MCC (1971-2000)= 0.63

Bhutan

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BHUTAN FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)

MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 607.99 mm

C.V. (1971-2000) = 14.00 RMSE (1971-2000) = 9.65

MCC (1971-2000)= 0.70

Myanmar FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)

MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 1038.4 mm

C.V. (1971-2000) = 7.9 RMSE (1971-2000) = 6.0

MCC (1971-2000)= 0.64

Myanmar

SRILANKA FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)

MEAN (1971-2000) = 294.7 mm

C.V. (1971-2000) = 24.0 RMSE (1971-2000) = 18.93

MCC (1971-2000)= 0.59

Sri Lanka

NEPAL FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)

MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 756.1 mm

C.V. (1971-2000) = 9.81 RMSE (1971-2000) = 7.22

MCC (1971-2000)= 0.66

Nepal

PAKISTHAN FORECAST (JUL-SEPT)

MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 91.60 mm

C.V. (1971-2000) = 37.8 RMSE (1971-2000) = 34.9

MCC (1971-2000)= 0.56

Pakisthan

MALDIVES FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)

MEAN RF (1988-2005) = 764.6 mm

C.V. (1988-2005) = 14.0 RMSE (1988-2005) = 11.61

MCC (1988-2005)= 0.68

Maldives

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Forecasts for 2015 from MR Models Developed during SASCOF Workshops

COUNTRY MEAN (1971-2000) mm

STDEV (1971-2000)

mm

RMSE (1971-2000)

mm

FORECAST (% OF LPA)

BANGALADESH 907.1 15.0 11.46 100.7

BHUTAN 607.99 13.8 9.65 86.4

MYANMAR 1038.4 8.0 6.0 93.7

SRILANKA 294.7 23.81 18.93 92.1

NEPAL 756.13 9.81 7.22 105

PAKISTHAN 91.60 43.0 34.9 36.4

MALDIVES 732.5 16.24 11.61 106

Operational Activities for Long-range Forecasting: Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamical Forecasting System

Monthly and seasonal rainfall and 2m temperature anomaly maps for the south Asia are prepared using the latest high resolution (T382L64) research version of the coupled forecasting system (CFS) model implemented at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune under Indian Monsoon Mission project. Updated every month.

Type of system: Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamical System (Numerical) Forecast: probabilistic and deterministic Model type and resolution: T382L64 Ensemble size: 12 members for hindcast and 40 members for forecast Details of forecasts period: 9 months Lead-time: One-month lead forecasts Period of verification: three-month period of Hindcast: 1981-2009 List of parameters: Precipitation, T2m and SST Details of verification data sets used :Precipitation: GPCP, T2m: ERA40, SST: NCEP

LRF Maps

Standard Verification Products

ENSO & IOD Forecast Bulletin (Every month)

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19

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia

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20

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Background

In Asia, China has been coordinating a RCOF called ‘Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II (FOCRA II) since 2005, covering the entire Asian continent.

Asia is a large continent with large differences in the climatological settings on a sub-regional scale. Therefore WMO's Regional Association II (Asia) recommended sub-regional RCOFs devoted to specific needs of groups of countries having similar climatic characteristics.

Implementation of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) in 2010 is a step in that direction with specific focus on the climate information needs of nations affected by the Asian summer monsoon climate.


The annual Climate of the south Asia is dominated by two monsoons: SW and NE monsoons.

The summer monsoon plays a crucial role in the entire socio-economic fabric of South Asia, highly influencing all walks of life. The summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall accounts for 75–90% of the annual rainfall of the most of the countries of the region.

During SW monsoon season, most intense rainfall activity is seen over the North Eastern parts of the region over Bangladesh, India and adjoining Myanmar. West coast of India also experiences high rainfall amounts owing to the steep topography of the “Western Ghats”.

During NE monsoon and early winter months, substantial rainfall results over the region covering the Southern tip of India and Sri Lanka as the prevailing northeasterly trade winds over the region gain strength.

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Rainfall Features of South Asia

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mon

thly

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Month

Annual Cycle of Nation-wide Rainfall of 8 South Asian Countries

Afganisthan

Bangladesh

Myanmar

India

Nepal

Pakisthan

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Data source: APHRODITE's daily grided rainfall data http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/

JJAS Climatology: 1951-2000

Contribution of Seasonal Rainfall to the Annual Rainfall

http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/Chart2

JanJanJanJanJanJanJan5.418

FebFebFebFebFebFebFeb7.908

MarMarMarMarMarMarMar22.058

AprAprAprAprAprAprApr45.806

MayMayMayMayMayMayMay90.506

JunJunJunJunJunJunJun158.392

JulJulJulJulJulJulJul200.298

AugAugAugAugAugAugAug154.416

SepSepSepSepSepSepSep106.692

OctOctOctOctOctOctOct43

NovNovNovNovNovNovNov7.484

DecDecDecDecDecDecDec3.55

Afganisthan

Bangladesh

Myanmar

India

Nepal

Pakisthan

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Month

Monthly Rainfall (mm)


19.922

5.72

7.868

11.568

16.242

12.796

78.636

25.29

10.786

10.28

12.302

15.078

15.878

55.976

32.182

26.178

18.762

16.896

20.48

20.65

53.554

22.972

63.526

39.74

23.598

24.65

14.988

109.076

13.258

147.45

141.504

43.762

52.63

9.528

95.612

3.682

252.63

258.634

119.564

145.042

10.128

56.724

5.72

276.58

287.22

217.278

251.034

40.562

55.436

5.44

223.218

286.298

199.208

223.002

35.814

54.472

3.414

175.094

199.158

127.574

134.58

14.928

86.094

4.906

92.022

118.008

57.548

39.342

5.19

183.37

7.492

16.756

36.352

20.362

5.364

3.84

216.362

14.036

4.252

8.314

10.764

7.396

8.43

169.46

Sheet1

AfganisthanBangladeshBhutanMyanmarIndiaNepalPakisthanSri Lanka

Jan19.9225.725.4187.86811.56816.24212.79678.636

Feb25.2910.7867.90810.2812.30215.07815.87855.976

Mar32.18226.17822.05818.76216.89620.4820.6553.554

Apr22.97263.52645.80639.7423.59824.6514.988109.076

May13.258147.4590.506141.50443.76252.639.52895.612

Jun3.682252.63158.392258.634119.564145.04210.12856.724

Jul5.72276.58200.298287.22217.278251.03440.56255.436

Aug5.44223.218154.416286.298199.208223.00235.81454.472

Sep3.414175.094106.692199.158127.574134.5814.92886.094

Oct4.90692.02243118.00857.54839.3425.19183.37

Nov7.49216.7567.48436.35220.3625.3643.84216.362

Dec14.0364.2523.558.31410.7647.3968.43169.46

Annual158.3141294.212845.5281412.138860.424934.84192.7321214.772

JJAS18.256927.522619.7981031.31663.624753.658101.432252.726

Sheet1

Afganisthan

Bangladesh

Myanmar

India

Nepal

Pakisthan

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Month

Monthly Rainfall (mm)


Sheet2

Sheet3

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Several studies have highlighted the critical dependence of crop production on summer monsoon rainfall. The summer monsoon rainfall is also important for hydroelectric power generation and meeting drinking water requirements. Thus, being essentially driven by agricultural growth, the economies of all South Asian countries are inextricably tied to the performance of the summer monsoon.

Therefore, prior information about the performance of the monsoon over South Asia will always be helpful for the society in planning risk management strategies.

Although substantial progress has been made in its understanding, prediction in respect of different aspects of the monsoon, particularly rainfall during the season with sufficient lead time, has remained a challenge for meteorologists/researchers across the globe even today.

Monsoon knowledge and its prediction stand for a shared challenge for South Asian nations which led to the development of a consensus focused on the outlook for the ensuing summer monsoon

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Beginning & Objectives

In a meeting convened by WMO, the Directors General of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in South Asia and Permanent Representatives (PRs) of the respective countries with WMO, at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy, on 6 August 2009, the PRs of south Asian nations with the WMO had unanimously agreed to establish a South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), to be implemented from 2010 onwards. The main objectives of SASCOF are the following.

To review the progress made in understanding and long range prediction of summer monsoon both regionally and globally;

To make available detailed information on climate variability in South Asia for dissemination along with the seasonal outlook;

To provide a platform for the stakeholders of SASCOF to share and exchange experience and knowledge on summer monsoon and its prediction;

To initiate capacity building/human resource development activities for the South Asian region, particularly in seasonal prediction;

To build collaboration and partnerships among the members of SASCOF for mutual benefit;

To identify needs of user sectors through a dialog among different groups.

SASCOF meetings so far SASCO is co-sponsored by WMO and coordinated by IMD, currently under

the demonstration phase for a WMO RCC for South Asia and IITM at Pune. Participating Countries- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,

Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Fora are conducted every year during the third week of the April month.

The first three sessions and 5th session were held in Pune, India (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014). The fourth session was held in Kathmandu, Nepal (2013) and the last session (2015) was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh.The first three meetings of SASCOF were held in Pune, India jointly hosted by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) with the support of WMO.

During SASCOF-1, the Forum observed that many countries in the region lack capacity and infrastructure for the climate services. Therefore, the Forum strongly recommended the initiation of a capacity building/human resource development plan for the South Asian nations, particularly for seasonal prediction. Accordingly, from the second SASCOF onwards, capacity building training workshop for participants from south Asian countries were became important part of the forum meeting.

Preparation and Evaluation of Consensus Forecast

Consensus outlook is prepared based on the expert assessment of prevailing large scale global climate indicators, experimental models developed during capacity building workshops and experimental as well as operational long range forecasts based on statistical and dynamical models generated by various operational and research centers including Global Producing Centres (GPCs). At least 50% of the forecast information is derived from various dynamical models.

The evaluation of the consensus forecasts issued during the last six years

(2010-2016) underlined the performance of the large scale rainfall over the region during the season correctly indicated by the consensus forecasts, but during all the years, some differences were noticed in the forecast for the regional rainfall distribution. It may mentioned that the forum this year had issued a consensus forecast of below normal 2015 southwest monsoon season rainfall for the region and so far the realised rainfall over the region has been below normal.

Consensus Forecast Issued and Verification (2010-2015)

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Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2010 Forecast: Based on the prevailing global climate indicators and forecasts

from statistical and global dynamical models, rainfall over South Asia, in general, is likely to be within the normal range (No forecast map were produced).

GPCP PRECIPITATION ANOMALY: JJAS 2010

Arrived based on both Statistical and Dynamical Model Forecasts

27-Apr-16

Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2011

FCST OBS

Forecast: Over South Asia, for the season as a whole, the large-scale summer monsoon rainfall would most likely be within the normal range. There is slightly enhanced likelihood for below normal rainfall conditions over the northwestern parts and some northeastern parts of South Asia. On the other hand, there is slightly enhanced likelihood of above normal rainfall over the southern parts of South Asia including the islands. Rainfall conditions close to the normal are more likely over the remaining parts of South Asia.

27-Apr-16


OBS

Forecast: Over South Asia and for the season as a whole, the large-scale summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall would most likely be normal. However, the expert assessment also noted a slight tendency for the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall to be below normal. There is slightly enhanced likelihood for below normal rainfall conditions over some broad areas of northwestern and southern parts of South Asia. Rainfall conditions close to the normal are more likely over the remaining parts of South Asia

FCST

27-Apr-16


OBS

Forecast: The large-scale summer monsoon rainfall for South Asia and the season (June – September) as a whole will most likely be within the normal range with a slight tendency towards the higher side of the normal range. In terms of spatial distribution of rainfall, the more likely scenario is for below normal rainfall over some areas of northwestern and southern parts of South Asia and for above normal rainfall over some areas along the Himalayan region. Rainfall conditions close to the long-period average are more likely over the remaining parts.

FCST


27/04/2016 33

Below-normal to normal rainfall is most likely during the 2014 summer monsoon season (June – September) over south Asia as a whole. Below-normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southernmost parts of the region.

Consensus forecast of SW Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia (issued in April every year)

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34

Consensus Rainfall Forecast: 2015 Observed Rainfall

Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over South Asia as a whole. Below-normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. It is noteworthy that except southern part of islands of the region no other part of South Asia has above-normal rainfall as the most likely category.

Consensus outlook for 2015 northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia

35 27/04/2016

Consensus Rainfall Forecast Observed Rainfall

Normal to above normal rainfall is likely during the 2015 Northeast monsoon season (October–December)over southern parts of South Asia including southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Above normal rainfall is likely over northern most parts of the region. Other areas of the region that generally receive very little rain during the season are likely to receive normal rainfall. During the season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.

Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring

Spatial Maps of Climate Variables Mean Sea Level Pressure Maximum & Temperature Temperatures Rainfall Mean Wind Anomaly Velocity Potential Stream Function OLR Anomaly ENSO Indices Indian Ocean Dipole

Climate Publications

Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring

Climate Data Ceter IMD Pune has a long time series of various Climate Data meticulously preserved at National Data Centre (NDC), Pune. Climate Data services and data rescue are the important activities of the NDC. Under Data Rescue activity, the data set of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures recorded during the period 1889 to 1930 (based on 8 AM observations) from India and 109 stations from south and West Asia have been recently digitised. The following high resolution gridded climate data sets over Indian region are available. The data are being updated regularly. 1oX1o Gridded daily rainfall data (1951-2014) based on 2140 stations. 1oX1o Gridded daily rainfall data (1901-2014) based on 1384 stations. 0.5o X 0.5o Gridded daily rainfall data (1971-2005). 0.25o X 0.25o Gridded daily rainfall data (1901-2014). 1oX1o Gridded daily Temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) data

(1951-2013). In addition, 0.5o X 0.5o Gridded daily rainfall (Guage + TRMM) data (1998-

2013) over south Asia.

COMPLETED PLAN PROJECTS DATA RESCUE SCHEME (2012) : ABOUT 45 LAKH MMR DATA SHEETS (PHASE I) SCANNED FROM ALL RMC / MC AROUND 2.8 CRORE RECS DIGITIZED SCANNED IMAGES; DATA - VIEW INTERFACE MADE AVAILABLE ARCHIVAL / PHOTOGRAPHY OF ANALYSED WEATHER CHARTS (2012) : ABOUT 4.5 LAKH CHARTS (PHASE I) ON NAS REMOTE ACCESS COMPLETED IN 2010-12; WWW.IMDPUNE/OLDCHARTS AUTOGRAPH CHART DIGITISATION: PILOT PROJECT (15000 CHARTS) (2013) THERMOGRAPH, HYGROGRAPH, BAROGRAPH (5 YEARS; 3 STNS) DATA EXTRACTION FROM CHARTS SOFTWARE / UTILITIES PREPARED

DIGITISE PAST DATA

PHOTOGRAPH CHARTS

AUTO CHARTS EXTRACTION

ARCHIVAL OF CHARTS

Training in the use of operational RCC products and services

Training and capacity building: The Meteorological Training Institute (MTI) of IMD at Pune is one of the WMO RMTCs. Regular training courses, refresher courses and specialized training courses for the IMD personnel as well as personnel from various national and international organizations are being conducted here in various branches of meteorology. The subjects include climate science and climate services. MTI conducts routine training courses on different disciplines of Operational Meteorology, at different levels (ab-initio, carrier progression) with duration ranging from 4 to 12 months for Indian nationals (Including IMD personnel) as well as for foreign nationals (including personnel form South Asia). In all such training courses, Climate has occupied a very important place either as Climatology or as Climate Science. Besides Indian Climatology, the course content of such Climate modules contains basics of Climate Science, Climate Change, Climate prediction tool, climate information etc. Besides, MTI organises many short term tailor made training courses on the themes of topical interest. MTI has also added a short term course on “Operational Climate Service”

SASCOF Training workshops Associated with SASCOFs

forum meetings, Training workshops on seasonal prediction are also conducted. Centre designs and conducts the training workshops as per the regional requirement. Support of international experts is also used. The participating climate experts from the NMHS of the region are trained in using, interpreting and downscaling global seasonal prediction products and developing a consensus outlook.

SASCOF-6

SASCOF-4

SASCOF-5

Future Plans Develop MME based LRF products for the region Prepare gridded climate data over the region Develop tools for Extended Range Forecasting Prepare consensus forecast outlook for all seasons Develop Climate data management services Conduct tailor made training courses for climate

services (Eg. General Meteorology course of 1 month duration for middle level forecasters in SAARC countries)

27/04/2016 44

Thank you

Slide Number 1RCC, Pune: BackgroundSlide Number 3Operational Long Range Forecasts Based on Statistical Models for IndiaSkill of the statistical models currently used for the operational LRF of Monsoon Rainfall over IndiaPerformance of Operational Forecast (Empirical Model) for �All India Seasonal Rainfall (1988-2015): Statistical Models for SAARC CountriesBangladeshBhutanMyanmarSri LankaNepalPakisthanMaldivesForecasts for 2015 from MR Models �Developed during SASCOF Workshops Operational Activities for Long-range Forecasting: Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamical Forecasting System �LRF MapsStandard Verification ProductsENSO & IOD Forecast Bulletin (Every month)�Seasonal Climate Outlook for South AsiaSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): BackgroundSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): BackgroundRainfall Features of South AsiaSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): BackgroundSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Beginning & ObjectivesSASCOF meetings so farPreparation and Evaluation of Consensus ForecastConsensus Forecast Issued and Verification (2010-2015)Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2010Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2011Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2012Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2013Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2014Consensus forecast of SW Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia (issued in April every year) �Consensus outlook for 2015 northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South AsiaOperational Activities for Climate Monitoring�Climate Publications Operational Data Services, to support� operational LRF and climate monitoringCOMPLETED PLAN PROJECTSTraining in the use of operational RCC products and services�Slide Number 41SASCOF Training workshops�Future PlansThank you

Documents

Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune...Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune (Demonstration Phase) D. S. Pai Head, Climate Division Regional Stakeholder Consultation on Climate Services